China Diapers Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Hi, Been trying every way I can think of to make some money betting on football for a good few years now without much success. I swing trade stocks with a modest amount of success so I thought the same skills might translate into sports betting. I don't expect to be able to quit my day job but I would have thought I would have found something with a small edge by now. Below is the path trodden so far. All of this was on betfair 1. Backing the big teams - failed 2. Starting backingteams based on form- failed 3. Starting backing teams which went a goal or two down if the odds hit 100+ hoping for a come back. Even got some dude to write a bot to place the bets for me - failed4. Convinced a dude to teach me how to scalp pre_match and halftime using the ladder. Easy to make money but almost impossible to make enough to justify the time and sight damage Then a wrote a formulaa to calculate who should win a game based on the form 5. Backing the home team if formula said yes and at least 80% of recent games were wins. I would wait for the game to go in-play and for the odds to creep up to 2.0+ before backing - failed 6. Laying the favourite if the odds 50% chance and odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 24, 2012 Author Share Posted September 24, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football That was : 7. Backing underdog if formula gives them > 50% chance and odds > 3 - failed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YorkshireFootyFan Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football The question is whether football can readily be boiled down to numbers, and if it can be, how long will it be before the market adjusts for this? Football is one sport where it pays to have a feel for the game, the more you watch it, and i mean in the flesh, watching a game on the telly doesn´t give you the same insight of a team´s worth, the more you watch it, the better your chances. I do think in football you need an opinion rather than a set of numbers, that said I do try to produce my own figures for football, but they try to work on the random nature of football rather than the predictability of form. Try looking for the teams you think have been overrated and who over the course of season will let their backers down enough times for you to make a profit, teams like Liverpool, though that might not last much longer, Leeds, Luton, Manchester United in Europe, Barcelona away in Europe. In other words teams who are overbet, that´s just one approach i´d consider. Look at another sport perhaps? But whatever you do, bet for fun and low stakes until you feel you are on the right path. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football If you had backed where you layed and layed where you backed would it have made any difference.? Or is there some other subtle reason you were a consistent loser.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football The question is whether football can readily be boiled down to numbers' date=' and if it can be, how long will it be before the market adjusts for this?Football is one sport where it pays to have a feel for the game, the more you watch it, and i mean in the flesh, watching a game on the telly doesn´t give you the same insight of a team´s worth, the more you watch it, the better your chances.I do think in football you need an opinion rather than a set of numbers, that said I do try to produce my own figures for football, but they try to work on the random nature of football rather than the predictability of form. Try looking for the teams you think have been overrated and who over the course of season will let their backers down enough times for you to make a profit, teams like Liverpool, though that might not last much longer, Leeds, Luton, Manchester United in Europe, Barcelona away in Europe. In other words teams who are overbet, that´s just one approach i´d consider. Look at another sport perhaps? But whatever you do, bet for fun and low stakes until you feel you are on the right path.[/quote']Thanks for the response. Yes I hear what you are saying re whether football can be boiled down to numbers, which is a shame because I definately a numbers kind of guy. Yes I have noticed the randomness of football outcomes too and some of my "systems" were intended to take advantage of this. I will definately look into your idea of overbet teams and I have been thinking about other sports I can bet on too. Perhaps rugby or darts. I have been serioulsy thinking of going back to the scalping as I know that makes money consistently, maybe even trading other sports pre-match if there is sufficient liquidity although this may very well result in my wife leaving me.I'm on small takes, don't worry, I've stopped bleeding moeny its takes a long time for all those £2 losses to add up to anything significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football If you had backed where you layed and layed where you backed would it have made any difference.? Or is there some other subtle reason you were a consistent loser.? Well when I was backing the supposed favourite I was surprised how badly I did even though I was looking for good odds, so I turned that on its head thinking value must be on laying the favourite, but that didn't work either which is very confusing and making me start to belive maybe there is such a thing as a perfect market. Maybe I need to be more selected of the guys I lay. I noticed beftfairs fixed odds are not far off the exchange odds which kId of tells me the margins are pretty small. Are you saying maybe I subconciously want to lose or I don't have a. "Gamblers mentality". I don't think this the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Weird how my response the methuselah has gone to a moderation queue but none of my other posts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Well just in case that post went walkies I basicallu said when the backing favs didn't win turned that on its head but was still losing (which really confused me), although not as badly and I can't think of anyproblems with my attitude football betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Are there common subtle reasons other than methodology why gamblers (if I must use the word) come unstuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Well just in case that post went walkies It did not go walkies, don't worry, it was just in moderation queue, maybe because of bad constellation of moon and stars, or maybe because of high price of oil on PLATTS, or something else, who knows why; but it's approved now, enjoy! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 It seems to me that you need to have some form of knowledge on what you're betting on, otherwise how do you know if the numbers are right? You'll be missing some key information on different markets that effect the price on offer, which means you're gambling without being in full receipt of all the information. I wouldn't try trading on shares without knowing what effects the prices, and without having good knowledge over those markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Are there common subtle reasons other than methodology why gamblers (if I must use the word) come unstuck Inconsistency of staking.... Insufficient betting bank... Lack of discipline.... Lack of research.... Many, many reasons that the bookmaker chaps rely upon year in, year out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Sorry again for poor grammer I'm in the US and using my blackberry which everybody know is the worst phone for internet browsing ever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Inconsistency of staking.... Insufficient betting bank... Lack of discipline.... Lack of research.... Many, many reasons that the bookmaker chaps rely upon year in, year out. Staking, discipline and bank not problems these are all things I had to get my head around for my stock trading operations. That leaves research or in my case methodology. Thanks for the post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football It seems to me that you need to have some form of knowledge on what you're betting on' date=' otherwise how do you know if the numbers are right? You'll be missing some key information on different markets that effect the price on offer, which means you're gambling without being in full receipt of all the information. I wouldn't try trading on shares without knowing what effects the prices, and without having good knowledge over those markets.[/quote'] When it comes to stocks I actually trade by the numbers 100%, that is what the price has done in the recent past. I don't even know what the companies I trade do half the time. But yes maybe this approach is not right for sports,and this is probably why the only area I have had some success is with the scalping Thanks for the post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football It seems to me that you need to have some form of knowledge on what you're betting on' date=' otherwise how do you know if the numbers are right? You'll be missing some key information on different markets that effect the price on offer, which means you're gambling without being in full receipt of all the information. I wouldn't try trading on shares without knowing what effects the prices, and without having good knowledge over those markets.[/quote'] When it comes to stocks I actually trade by the numbers 100%, that is what the price has done in the recent past. I don't even know what the companies I trade do half the time. But yes maybe this approach is not right for sports,and this is probably why the only area I have had some success is with the scalping Thanks for the post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Dp, lousy phone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 But don't you still need to have some understand of what effects the numbers and how they're going to move? Sports betting is just too unpredictable IMO. Although you're probably better off speaking to Allthethings, as he bets mainly on numbers :). There's a thread he has in the system and strategy sub forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 When it comes to stocks I actually trade by the numbers 100%, that is what the price has done in the recent past. I don't even know what the companies I trade do half the time. But yes maybe this approach is not right for sports,and this is probably why the only area I have had some success is with the scalping Thanks for the post I can relate... I am a horse racing punter and am trying to reduce the sport to 'numbers' in order to take the emotion out of the process completely. The numbers are my own - I then use them to my advantage to obtain value as and when I see fit. Horse racing is pretty random but I believe that I can make this approach pay - its working so far! With football, there is so much randomness occurring that I don't think u could ever make the game about numbers/ratings. A horse race lasts a minute where random things can happen. A football game 95. I know the trainer and jockey, course and distance that a selection will be involved with.... I can't know team selections, how they have trained and every single action of any of the 22 players over 95 odd minutes, plus be manager/coaches etc. This makes the game far too random for me. Added to which, bookmakers are well clued up on it and so value is probably harder to find. The randomness of football is why I love it so much. I've not really tried but I doubt very much I could turn a profit on it either. Hats off to those that do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football But don't you still need to have some understand of what effects the numbers and how they're going to move? Sports betting is just too unpredictable IMO. Although you're probably better off speaking to Allthethings' date=' as he bets mainly on numbers :). There's a thread he has in the system and strategy sub forum.[/quote'] It all comes down to pattern recognition (knowing that when a stock does x outcome y is more likely than z) and then money management, or as you guys say, staking. I was under the impression football would be similar but clearly not, don't I feel silly =) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football I can relate... I am a horse racing punter and am trying to reduce the sport to 'numbers' in order to take the emotion out of the process completely. The numbers are my own - I then use them to my advantage to obtain value as and when I see fit. Horse racing is pretty random but I believe that I can make this approach pay - its working so far! With football, there is so much randomness occurring that I don't think u could ever make the game about numbers/ratings. A horse race lasts a minute where random things can happen. A football game 95. I know the trainer and jockey, course and distance that a selection will be involved with.... I can't know team selections, how they have trained and every single action of any of the 22 players over 95 odd minutes, plus be manager/coaches etc. This makes the game far too random for me. Added to which, bookmakers are well clued up on it and so value is probably harder to find. The randomness of football is why I love it so much. I've not really tried but I doubt very much I could turn a profit on it either. Hats off to those that do. I find it really hard to believe its so hard to make moeny on football on an exchange (as opposed to a bookies) but my experience and the advice of everybody I speak to tells me otherwise so maybe time to hang up the towel. You've inspired me to take a look at horese racing, which I know literally nothing about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I find it really hard to believe its so hard to make moeny on football on an exchange (as opposed to a bookies) but my experience and the advice of everybody I speak to tells me otherwise so maybe time to hang up the towel. You've inspired me to take a look at horese racing, which I know literally nothing about. Oh good! Need that on my conscious!! ;) Read Books - if u literally know nothing, keep reading! Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Oh good! Need that on my conscious!! ;) Read Books - if u literally know nothing, keep reading! Good Luck Small stakes, promise = ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YorkshireFootyFan Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Horse racing is the last sport I´d try if you have no knowledge, there is a lot too it, I´d definitely try another sport instead of horseracing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football Great post! Frankly, I dont understand what people are doing on football markets. A hell a lot of money!!! Very confusing... I've choosen gardening:) Or maybe not... Thanks Gods there are other sports:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Diapers Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 Re: how to not make money on football I´d definitely try another sport instead of horseracing. OK, no football, no horse racing...tennis? Darts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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