The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 So my question - I wanted to back Dobin at 7s and upwards. My least favourite Bookmaker opened up at 8/1 which I missed. They are now 6/1 and most other Bookmakers are 5s. Presuming that it doesn't come back out to 7/1 and upwards before tomorrows race; Would you; just let it go and move onto the next day/race, back it at the lower price for your/my normal level stake, increase stake to pay out as if you had backed it at 8/1. I certainly won't be doing the last option.... I'm reluctant to back it at lower than the price I wanted but I can see that if it does now win, this option will save me going 'on tilt' - I won't - but you get the point I am making... Most likely, it doesn't win and I've saved myself a point... And if I don't back it and it loses, I'll congratulate myself on not taking below the odds I wanted... Sometimes I wish I was a robot!! Emotions, emotions, emotions - they get in the way and they shouldn't!! I need to have a rule for this sort of instance... I think the correct response is to leave it. Any other opinions?! (apart from 'Saint, shut the **** up!') Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? If it's the right price or above, then you back it imo. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? If it's the right price or above' date=' then you back it imo. :ok[/quote'] I never said I was in the Pub!!!! :lol ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveNorthernRacing Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? I had something vaguely similar a few weeks ago and was left cursing I had been given a tip, checked in the morning before work and it was between 10's and 14's across the bookmakers and a touch higher on Betfair. I was looking at the race over and over telling myself that I didnt think it would win. I went to work around dinner time checked the price in there, it had come into 6/1. Checked online on my phone it was still 7/1 with some bookies. I put it off again throughout the afternoon I watched this horse slowly be bet into 4/1 at which stage I went on my phone and bet on it at 9/2! lol It romped home and despite winning, I was so not a happy chappy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? I had something vaguely similar a few weeks ago and was left cursing I had been given a tip, checked in the morning before work and it was between 10's and 14's across the bookmakers and a touch higher on Betfair. I was looking at the race over and over telling myself that I didnt think it would win. I went to work around dinner time checked the price in there, it had come into 6/1. Checked online on my phone it was still 7/1 with some bookies. I put it off again throughout the afternoon I watched this horse slowly be bet into 4/1 at which stage I went on my phone and bet on it at 9/2! lol It romped home and despite winning, I was so not a happy chappy. **** it - I'll leave it for now and hope it comes back out - will back it if it hits 7s. Teach me to take my eyes off the computer for half an hour!!:lol Whilst your story is a little more extreme, it says alot that your tip won and it still annoyed you! If it wins, it wins - I'll cope and find a cat to kick!:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? If you feel a horse should be 2/1, even 9/4 should be value in your eyes. If you can get 4's you should be delighted, so what if you didn't get 8/1, shouldn't matter, your still getting value in your eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveNorthernRacing Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? It annoyed me as I had talked myself out of betting on it earlier at the bigger price! I do not know a great deal about horse racing so I was quite mad that I had managed to convince myself that I knew better than the guy telling me his horse would win!! lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? If you feel a horse should be 2/1' date=' even 9/4 should be value in your eyes. If you can get 4's you should be delighted, so what if you didn't get 8/1, shouldn't matter, your still getting value in your eyes.[/quote'] Absolutely Aidy - that's not in question - should not have included that excess in the post. I shall delete it! The one in question went 8s to 6s. I wanted 7s and up and missed the 8s. Am trying to become a robot so I can dismiss emotion and doubt from my game.... Am getting there - not backing unless I can get 7s at some point.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Why not back it in-running at the price you want? If the race has enough liquidity during play and it hasn't shortened too much before the start then you'll probably get matched. Problem solved. If it's not a front runner you'll probably get an even better price anyhow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Absolutely Aidy - that's not in question - should not have included that excess in the post. I shall delete it! The one in question went 8s to 6s. I wanted 7s and up and missed the 8s. Am trying to become a robot so I can dismiss emotion and doubt from my game.... Am getting there - not backing unless I can get 7s at some point.... One thing i would never do is increase my stake just because the price is a bit shorter. For horse racing, i am a strict level stakes punter, otherwise i would get carried away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Furthermore, you must dismiss emotion as a horse player. See it as a transaction and not as some emotional attachment :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Why not back it in-running at the price you want? If the race has enough liquidity during play and it hasn't shortened too much before the start then you'll probably get matched. Problem solved. If it's not a front runner you'll probably get an even better price anyhow! Fair idea Jay - from memory, I think the horse in question is a bit of a traveller as opposed to a fighter... On this occasion, an hour or so on, I should get matched above 7s to be honest and it's not that big a fancy anyway... I'll certainly check the replays and past in-running highs though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Furthermore' date=' you must dismiss emotion as a horse player. See it as a transaction and not as some emotional attachment :ok[/quote'] Oh god yes - agree totally. I'm completely non-emotional when it comes to the selection process and establishing the price I want. I have no emotional attatchement to the game or horses other than people with a similar interest in making it pay. Just struggle on this particular issue when missing a price that I know was available at one time or other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveNorthernRacing Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? One thing i would never do is increase my stake just because the price is a bit shorter. For horse racing' date=' i am a strict level stakes punter, otherwise i would get carried away.[/quote'] I wish I could be so controlled! I only tend to bet on tips I am given but I have both dropped my 'usual' stakes sometimes and wish I hadn't and of course increased my stake other times and really wished I didnt in hindsight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Hi Saint, If I wanted 7's and upwards then that's the price I would need, whether it wins or not is irrelevant in the long run. If it's shorter I'd leave it alone. In reality and taking that line of reasoning a step further, if it shortens others will lengthen so I'd look to see if one of the other animals that I believed was in with a reasonable chance was being offered at odds that are too high. If so, I'd back that one instead, if not I'd leave the race alone. The first bit took me a few years to master the second decades! Price is everything imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Kithanga, if the original horse is the one you believe will win, why would you back another because you thought the price was too high? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty657 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Hi Saint, If I wanted 7's and upwards then that's the price I would need, whether it wins or not is irrelevant in the long run. If it's shorter I'd leave it alone. In reality and taking that line of reasoning a step further, if it shortens others will lengthen so I'd look to see if one of the other animals that I believed was in with a reasonable chance was being offered at odds that are too high. If so, I'd back that one instead, if not I'd leave the race alone. The first bit took me a few years to master the second decades! Price is everything imo Surely you should only be backing what you believe will win? If you think others will then maybe leave the race alone? I would anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Kithanga' date=' if the original horse is the one you believe will win, why would you back another because you thought the price was too high?[/quote'] Cos that's the whole concept of value, every horse is backable at a price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodge Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Kithanga' date=' if the original horse is the one you believe will win, why would you back another because you thought the price was too high?[/quote'] Its all to do with value. Every horse has a chance of winning the race and if the odds of any runner are a lot higher than your perceived chances of it winning then surely it is worth looking at betting on it.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Scotty, Jay, I wouldn't back any horse but I would back one that I thought had a reasonable chance as long as that chance is under estimated by the market. By this I mean those that are dangers to the original selection. They exist in most races and are sometimes very much ignored. Granted, occasionally the selection is very strong and the opposition over rated and that's when I'd typically be backing a short one or favourite to a high stake. Thistle Bird at Haydock on Saturday is an example of when I've done this and it won nicely this time. They are rare for me though, especially in handicaps where the races are competitive and there are several dangers to a selection. Pass Muster at York yesterday is an example of when I've taken this alternative view as he was available at around 20-1 most of the morning as money came in for the ones with a stronger chance. He looked like he may be one paced but was certainly over priced and was worth a small wager. In the end he ran well but could only stay on at one pace to manage 5th behind the favourite. There's so many things that can happen in the race with tactics and luck in running that I need plenty of margin in the price. The other advantage of this approach is that you never have to rush to get the odds. I can take my time, assess the race and then see what's on offer. This means I'm mostly backing when the market is well established and I can therefore get larger stakes on with less trouble. I've had my stakes limited far less than I used to do when I was betting the night before. Each to their own though and I can understand why this would be difficult for most people to do as the lure of picking the winner is very strong. Hope that explains Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Scotty, Jay, I wouldn't back any horse but I would back one that I thought had a reasonable chance as long as that chance is under estimated by the market. By this I mean those that are dangers to the original selection. They exist in most races and are sometimes very much ignored. Granted, occasionally the selection is very strong and the opposition over rated and that's when I'd typically be backing a short one or favourite to a high stake. Thistle Bird at Haydock on Saturday is an example of when I've done this and it won nicely this time. They are rare for me though, especially in handicaps where the races are competitive and there are several dangers to a selection. Pass Muster at York yesterday is an example of when I've taken this alternative view as he was available at around 20-1 most of the morning as money came in for the ones with a stronger chance. He looked like he may be one paced but was certainly over priced and was worth a small wager. In the end he ran well but could only stay on at one pace to manage 5th behind the favourite. There's so many things that can happen in the race with tactics and luck in running that I need plenty of margin in the price. The other advantage of this approach is that you never have to rush to get the odds. I can take my time, assess the race and then see what's on offer. This means I'm mostly backing when the market is well established and I can therefore get larger stakes on with less trouble. I've had my stakes limited far less than I used to do when I was betting the night before. Each to their own though and I can understand why this would be difficult for most people to do as the lure of picking the winner is very strong. Hope that explains Spot on Kithanga - am with you 110% on this. There is normally one horse I fancy in a race - I will make a tissue and then if I can get 5% above my tissue price to a 100% book then I will back it. If there are 2 or 3 in the race that I think could win, or are within a length or 2 of the most likely winner, I may back the one which I percieve to offer value- this will again be arrived at through reference to my own tissue prices. Picking 'value' as opposed to picking winners is a completely different mindset but to my mind is the only way to make the game pay. Am open to other ideas of course. To put it very crudly, any monkey can pick winners. The people that turn a profit will back these winners at sufficient 'value' though. The phrase 'value' is one that is very much over used though. My idea of a 'value' price on a particular selection may be 7/1. Someone else may consider this price to be laughable and have it priced up at 16s. What annoys me is when anything quoted against an odds-on favourite or at double figures is reffered to as being 'value'. This is utter bollocks!! It might be - but it's completely subjective. If Frankel was offered at 1/3 for example - that would be, in all liklehood considered massive value - but is still an odds on shot. Funnily enough, there are 2 I do fancy in the race in question and they had both been backed just under the prices I was after. Tis a competitive race and I'll probably manage to get matched at the prices I want. If both move to the prices I consider value, I'll back both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty657 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? I'm fairly new to looking at and understanding racecards [or trying] so maybe my views are slightly narrow minded. But I don't see the attraction of backing what you deem as value, over just concentrating on what you think will win when the price is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 I do understand the concept of value but still can't see how you can back another in these circumstances. It'd be a no bet for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? If it's gone below your price you wanted leave it and if it wins so be it, there'll be another value horse around the corner. If you keep taking 4-1 about a horse you feel is a 5-1 chance it makes a mockery of the whole concept of value and why you are picking horses. I feel some people can get drawn into backing prices rather than horses and for me it is about backing "the right horse at the right price". I wouldn't have backed Nathaniel on Saturday at those odds but had it been something like 5-2 I'd have been interested. Being able to leave a horse alone that you fancy because it is poor value is for me what discipline is about. It's like laying down a good hand in poker because someone has just made a ridiculously huge raise that now offers no value for you to call. I often put more on shorter priced horses and it's a habit I'm trying to get out of but I am often more confident on these short priced horses than the longer priced ones. It is often harder to be as confident on a 20-1 chance in a 16 runner handicap than it is to back a 7-4 chance in a 7 runner conditions race for example. Typical yesterday at York that the horse I had most money on was 9-4 and lost (Gabrials Star) yet I back 3 winners at 6-1, 7-1 and 5-1 and only have a fraction of the money on them that I had on the 9-4 chance. Staking is probably one of the hardest parts of horse racing and overstaking, upping stakes has been my problem for a while but I am good at letting winners go unbacked due to what I feel are poor odds that seem too short. That concept probably seems alien to many but the "a winner's a winner" mentality is wrong because long term you need the right prices where your horses chance has been underestimated by the odds compilers, hence why punters are always trying to "find an angle". I remember someone on here backing prices at times rather than the horse. He would price up an outsider at 50-1 but because it was 100-1 he would back it. If I think the horse has no chance I probably won't back it at all, regardless of price. You get horses that are 66-1 with the bookies and 200.0 on Betfair but I often look at them and think I wouldn't even back them at 500-1. I don't have a problem backing a horse several times with market support as long as it doesn't drop below your price. As an example you price up a horse you feel is underrated and make it a 7-1 chance. It opens up at 14-1. You back it at 14's, it comes down so you back it at either 12's, 10's and 8's but then if it hits 7-1 you stop backing it. Ideally you'd get your required stake on at the first given price. It becomes harder when working with short prices for me, the difference in value is miniscule, you might leave a horse at 7-4 but back it at 15-8. I personally try avoid horses under 2-1 and feel they have to be bombproof to back at that kind of price and few are. If you leave a horse alone for the right reasons and it wins just shrug your shoulders and move on, find the next value horse. As you say Saint, many are wrapped up with backing winners (at any price) rather than consdering the price they are taking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? I have revolved my whole year around value, not over what i think will win the race. My aim this year is to try and beat SP, have done it all year with my BBOTD and it is more than 100 points in profit to level stakes with over a 40% yield.. Even though a lot of the time i miss a point or two on a horse, if i still think it is value i will back it. The first question i ask myself is "Do i think this horse is overpriced?", not "Do i think this horse will win?"..... It is when you start asking the second question that you will back horses at any price and is probably why most people are unsuccessful. Just like Boulder last month, he backed many a long shot each-way as he felt they were overpriced, and he ended up more than 50 points in profit for the 1 month. It is all about value. If you find value, the percentages are on your side. If you go simply looking for the winner of the race, you will probably fail in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? I'm fairly new to looking at and understanding racecards [or trying] so maybe my views are slightly narrow minded. But I don't see the attraction of backing what you deem as value' date= over just concentrating on what you think will win when the price is right. I wouldn't back ANY horse in any race that might be considered value Scotty. I don't think you are being narrow minded at all - you are doing what 100% of punters starting out do. 8 times out of 10, the favourite is the most likely winner - but if you back every favourite, obviously you are going to lose long term. Favourites can be value but not every one... Just say Liverpool are playing West Ham at home and are considered the most likely winners... the prices might be 1/2 and 2/1 with the draw no bet... You might back Liverpool as the most likely winners.... They probably will win but what if the same game was priced Liverpool at 1/10 and West Ham 10/1 with the draw no bet....? Exageratting to prove a point but if Liverpool were 1/200 and West Ham were 200/1, I'd still consider Liverpool the most likely winners but in a one off game of football, West Ham would win at least 1 in every 200 and would have to be the bet at that price... Not the most likely winner but offered at a value price so would have to be the bet... A crap example I know - tis only done to try and explain a little better - I have no affiliation to either team and do not anticipate a disscussion as to the merits of either!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? I'm fairly new to looking at and understanding racecards [or trying] so maybe my views are slightly narrow minded. But I don't see the attraction of backing what you deem as value' date= over just concentrating on what you think will win when the price is right. Bringing it to a very base level then consider this - you think 3 horses have equal chances of winning the race you're looking at. The odds of those 3 runners are 2-1, 3-1 and 8-1. Which one do you back? A horse can be a back and a lay in the same race. You'd back it at one price but lay it at another. For me betting is about exploiting the mistakes made by odds compilers and believe me there are plenty. The Godolphin favourite in todays 2.30pm race at Newcastle was an awful price for what looked to be an exposed and overrated horse. I backed the wrong one in the race and was on Vanity's Girl but my thoughts on the favourite were spot on which meant there was value in the race because that one was an awful price giving no value there but value elsewhere against it. Price up a football match, something like Man Utd v Chelsea. You might back Man Utd at around 6-4 if you consider them to be value and have your reasons (home form, Chelsea injuries, poor away record etc etc, these are examples not facts, just hypothetical) but would you back Man Utd at odds of 1-3, still thinking they'll win? I think you're on the right lines with backing what you think will win at the right price, if you can't get the right price let it go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? I wouldn't back ANY horse in any race that might be considered value Scotty. I don't think you are being narrow minded at all - you are doing what 100% of punters starting out do. 8 times out of 10, the favourite is the most likely winner - but if you back every favourite, obviously you are going to lose long term. Favourites can be value but not every one... Just say Liverpool are playing West Ham at home and are considered the most likely winners... the prices might be 1/2 and 2/1 with the draw no bet... You might back Liverpool as the most likely winners.... They probably will win but what if the same game was priced Liverpool at 1/10 and West Ham 10/1 with the draw no bet....? Exageratting to prove a point but if Liverpool were 1/200 and West Ham were 200/1, I'd still consider Liverpool the most likely winners but in a one off game of football, West Ham would win at least 1 in every 200 and would have to be the bet at that price... Not the most likely winner but offered at a value price so would have to be the bet... A crap example I know - tis only done to try and explain a little better - I have no affiliation to either team and do not anticipate a disscussion as to the merits of either!! Seems you were thinking along the same lines as me with a footy example, see above. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? If it's gone below your price you wanted leave it and if it wins so be it, there'll be another value horse around the corner. Yep - You're right, just find it tough when I know I could have got the price I wanted if I hadn't chosen that half hour to have a break! All good - only wanted to start a decent disscussion really! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 Re: What do you do if you miss the price?? Seems you were thinking alone the same lines as me with a footy example' date=' see above. :ok[/quote'] :lol Ha ha! Buses m8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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