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Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August


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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

Why do you think that bet seems good? ;)
Because I expect a tactical game. Kopenhagen dont want to incase goals, and I think Club Brugge would be happy with a draw here. But I need more info of Danish and Belgium friends...
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

Can add that Feyenord will be without Vlaar (captain) ' date=' Bakkal, El ahmadi and Guidetti who all played important roles in the last year. And the new replacements are average at best to say. So all in all Kiev Dinamo should win this game pretty comfortably at home.[/quote'] great post m8..i took your advice and went for dinamo in a treble so fingers crossed the other 2 come good aswell, it was abit close when feyernord scored but i remember there last game in the league on the weekend...they conceded at home and then attacked like crazy and ended up winning:ok keep up the good work and all punters keep the good work up in this thread:ok
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

After some hesitation and research, I decided to make my picks for both games today. 1. Dynamo - Feyenoord Under 2.5 @ 1.90 (bet365) At first sight, I might look very risky, given the offensive power of Dynamo and the number of goals scored in Feyenoord's games in Erediv. However, my main reason is that I think Dynamo is experiencing some difficulties creating goal-opportunities against packed-up defenses. They have three wins in a row in Ukraine, but two of them were "1-0", and the third was 3:1 with two very late goals against underdogs Zaporojie. I had the chance to watch one of these games - against Metalurh Donetsk, and Dynamo, despite the huge advantage in possession, barely created a single chance for the whole game, and was lucky to escape with a goal in the last minute. Feyenoord do not show particularly impressive defense in Holland, but we all know that this is one of the most goal-scoring leagues in Europe. In CL tie, I am confident that they will approach the game in a very different way than the normal Eredivisie match. I am sure they will be packed up in the back and just sporadically attack. Koeman should know to organize their defense well, and I am pretty sure that he's done his homework after watching Dynamo's three games so far. Feyenoord misses superstar Guidetti and Bakkal, which in turn, considerably reduces their chances of scoring in Kyiv, which is also good for this bet. In the end, trying to take into account team psychology, I think that Dynamo will be more than happy with a small clean-sheet victory like 1:0. And even, in the worst case, they will not be unhappy with a goal-less draw. They know they are very good away and Feyenoord is nothing special at home, so I don't believe Dynamo will be pushing very hard for a big victory. 2. Motherwell - Pao Pao Clean Sheet 2.18 (Betfair) This one is more like a speculative bet. The price for unders is 1.57, meaning that bookies definitely expect one or at most two goals. On the other hand, if we investigate the correct score market, we see that the four most likely scores according to bookies are: 0:1, 1:1, 0:2, and 0:0. Three out of these four, include Pao clean sheet. Maybe I am missing sth, but it looks like 2.18 is a little too big. Analyzing the game itself, I expect Pao to dominate possession, Mwell to be defending for most of the time, but defending in an aggressive fashion, whereas they will press up the Greek midfielders and leave them little space. This could mean an unattractive football with little chances. The Scottish will surely try to get a goal and will have a few chances, but they will be more than welcoming a goal-less draw.
A loss and a win. Overall - small profit.
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

The second Scottish club involved in the third qualifying round are competition debutantes Motherwell. Motherwell v Panathanaikos - UNDER 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Many expect the Greeks to run all over Motherwell in this tie, but I think the way Stuart McCall is going to set his side up, it may be a little tougher than most expect, especially in Scotland. The home sides manager has admitted he just wants to still be in the tie after the 90 minutes on Tuesday night, so expect him to go with a fairly defensive formations and allow his boys to sit behind the ball and defend, whilst mounting the odd attack on the break. The Greeks will be confident they will get the job done in Greece if they fail to score in Scotland, so don't expect them to be playing at too high a tempo here and watch for them keeping possession without really penetrating the home sides ranks. I don't know what kind of side Panathanaikos are these days but I do know the home side will be well organised and will be determined to keep the score respectable and competitive. The stadium has sold out three of it's four stands so there will be no lack of home support and I can see this giving the players an extra spring in their step. I fancy the away side to progress here but with the unders selection it gives me cover of the draw in the even that the Greeks fail to score in Scotland. Expect it to be a tight away win or goalless draw, both resulting in a winning selection on the UNDERS. Good Luck.
Happy with the win on the unders tonight and also backed the Panathanaikos win aswell - special mention to Atko for his write up with convinced me to follwo the straight win. Cheers!
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

here are my first two bets: Kiew-Feyenoord [email protected] (Interwetten) 5/10 Kiew won all 3 games in the ukraine Championship. They bought some strong players this summer (Kranjcar, Ruben,Veloso, Raffael) and I think that they are all in all much better than Feyenoord. The dutch Championship has not started yet, which means that they only made friendly matches so far. They also lost some strong players in this summer. Kiew @home is also always worth trying out Motherwell-Panathinaikos under 2.5 [email protected] 4/10 Mybet I don't think that both teams will score many goals. It is a typical under game.
Both picks right, even if it was barely ;)
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August Injuries & suspensions Anderlecht v FK Ekranas Anderlecht: - FK Ekranas: Ribokas, Velička, Fofana FC København v Club Brugge FC København: Bergvold Club Brugge: Stenman, Vlemincx, Jørgensen, Trickovski CFR Cluj v Slovan Liberec CFR Cluj: Panin, Piccolo, Maftei, Hora, Celestino, Rui Pedro, Godemeche, Ganea Slovan Liberec: Rabušic, Delarge, Nezmar

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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August My final picks for tonight... Sheriff - Dinamo Zagreb Sheriff DNB 2.00 (bet365) I am surprised to see such price for draw no bet in favor of the home-team, in a tie which I consider very equal (if not Sheriff being even better). I watched both games of Dinamo against Bulgarian Ludogorets and they were close to pathetic. I know maybe two games is not very big sample to draw conclusions, but if Dinamo's opponent wasn't so inexperienced (first year in Europe), the Croatians would have got easily beaten in both legs. Dinamo shows tremendous lack of creativity in midfield and up-front - basically all their goals were caused by "unprovoked mistakes". They are also fragile defensively and let many opportunities for the opposition. Sheriff are much more experienced than Ludogorets, they are also "under-ish" (good defense), and very good at home (I mentioned in previous threads how many very good European teams good beaten in Tiraspol in the last few years). I think it is very unlikely that they lose, and they high chance of winning this game and the whole tie. Cluj - Liberets Cluj @ 1.91 (betfair) Romanian teams are very strong and definitely performing much better than Czech counterparts in the past ten years. Cluj is already very experienced and established itself as the most powerful team in the country in the last several year, above traditional mastodons like Steaua and Dinamo. Liberets, on the other hand, does not usually take part in this tournament, and they quite often miss European tournaments. Last round, they got beaten in Kazakhstan by Shakhtar Karaganda, and managed to qualify only after a last-minute goal in the extra time. Cluj is experienced and strong enough to get home victory comfortably and with class. Anderlecht - Ekranas Anderlecht to Win to Nil @ 1.76 (betfair) The clean sheet and win to nil bets have been performing very well lately, and I intend to try them again. Ekranas is the best team in the country, but the level in Lithuania is way below that in Belgium. However, it is very likely that Anderlecht might have some difficulties against very packed defense of Ekranas, so handicaps are not good option in my opinion. These are some of Ekranas results in European away games: - HJK Helsinki 0:2, La Valletta 3:2, BATE 1:3, Hapoel 0:4, Shamrock 0:0. We see that they are nothing special and not particularly sharp offensively. I see this game most likely as a 2:0 victory for the Belgians. Maribor - Dudelange Maribor win to nil @ 1.98 (betfair) This is my speculative bet for this round. Many people would say I am crazy after what Dudelange did last round. However, I believe that this is the exact reason why Maribor will be very careful defensively and won't show any sign of underestimation. This price is totally influenced by last round, hadn't it taken place, the same bet would have been around 1.40. Maribor are mainly under-ish team both in Slovenia and Europa. I expect them to get 2:0 or 3:0 win. In the end, I would say that I think I might be skipping AEL-Partizan game, and I am surely skipping Fenerbahche - Vaslui. Partizan are actually very good and maybe the price for home win is normal. As to the game in Istabnul, I wouldn't touch it. Romanian teams are really good and Fenerbahche is just starting their season now.

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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

I see many bets on Fenerbahce fron you HastGill1, but I go against you on this one. took Vaslui +1 3 units @2.15 for some reasons. Here is full preview: http://romanianbet.com/2012/07/31/fenerbahce-fc-vaslui-champions-league-qualifiers/
No problem! Hopefully it finishes 1-0 to Fener then I win and you don't lose anything! ;)..a few things I didn't mention before that might interest a few of you, Fenerbahce Chairman Aziz Yildirim was in jail for 1 year and he was discharged nearly 1 month ago for the 'match-fixing' or 'player manipulation' (whatever you want to call it) and received a heroes welcome from the supporters. Fenerbahce fans are banned for 5 home games in the domestic league because of fighting with police after losing title to Galata in the last home game, so this match although the first of the season will be their last for a while. Expect the atmosphere will be v.intimidating because of these factors. Fenerbahce supporters seem to think Kuyt is likely to play up top on his own with key man Alex behind him. The coach is supposed to be quite cautious in nature so I think most things point to quite a low scoring game still, the Vasuli coach has spoken of an away goal being the key for this match but I've heard all this before from underdog teams and it doesn't sway me. In the other game AEL Limassol have just signed Orlando Sa from Fulham (Striker previously at Braga and Porto) who is a full international with Portugal. They only signed him on 30th July so I'm not sure if he will be available tonight but hopefully he will be, would certainly imagine he would be favourable to Chris Dickson who started the first leg against Linfield and missed a fair few chances (failed to impress when he was at Gillingham so shouldn't really be playing in the CL). I'm starting to doubt this pick a bit to be honest, whenever a side moves from their home pitch it never normally gives them the same adavantage.
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August NK Maribor vs Dudelange Great opportunity for Slovenians which they won't miss. The draw was extremely good for them, the last opponent to ensure the further playing in Europe, is a semi-professional club from Luxembourg. Dudelange, against whom Maribor played last season (won both meetings 2:0 and 3:1). Since then, Maribor play even better (won the title with 20 points more than the following team), beat Bosnian Željezničar twice in previous round and they aren't defeated in the last 23 consecutive games. Ibraimi (reg fw) is doubtful. On the other side, we've Dudelange, unknown to everyone, but the fact that they'd only three points more than 2nd placed league team in last season, saying that it is a pretty poor team for the European criteria. Yes, they were surprised Salzburg (1:0 and 3:4), but now would be difficult for anyone to underestimate them again. They'll be without Benzouien (reg fw, 3g) who is suspended. Maribor have much better team and great support from the stands (over 10,000 fans, Ljudski vrt is sold out). Also should be noted that Maribor already played three league games (2-1-0), while away side haven't played league match yet. Maribor -2 AH @2.10 Pinnacle low stake

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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

Injuries & suspensions Anderlecht v FK Ekranas Anderlecht: - FK Ekranas: Ribokas, Velička, Fofana
Anderlecht is missing both regular central defenders Kouyaté and Juhasz + Vargas + Praet
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

Last week I returned from Cyprus. I stepped out of the plane at 11pm local time and still felt as if I were entering a heated oven. During the daytime it's much worse, due to the humidity. Continental weather (like in Balkans) is a different story. Don't know much about football level of AEL, but if Partizan players are humans, weather conditions will certainly play a part here. I'll also put some stake on the hosts.
The temperature around 35-40 degrees is nothing unusual in ex-Yu, so Partizan are well used to play under these weather conditions. Player for player, Partizan are by far the better side than AEL all over the pitch. Their defense is quite shaky at times, but they still have a very good goalkeeper and a very good central defender(Ivanov) who're well capable of controling this area. Partizan's midfield is packed with experience and this is the best part of the tearm, plus L.Markovic, with his pace, should be able to cause AEL all sorts of troubles. AEL are capable of winning this one, but from what I saw of the Cypriots, I'm sure Partizan are still a class above them. Probable lineup: Partizan: Stojkovic - Aksentijevic, Ostojic, Ivanov, Volkov - Lovre, S.Markovic - L.Markovic, Babovic, Tomic - S.Scepovic
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

The temperature around 35-40 degrees is nothing unusual in ex-Yu, so Partizan are well used to play under these weather conditions. Player for player, Partizan are by far the better side than AEL all over the pitch. Their defense is quite shaky at times, but they still have a very good goalkeeper and a very good central defender(Ivanov) who're well capable of controling this area. Partizan's midfield is packed with experience and this is the best part of the tearm, plus L.Markovic, with his pace, should be able to cause AEL all sorts of troubles. AEL are capable of winning this one, but from what I saw of the Cypriots, I'm sure Partizan are still a class above them. Probable lineup: Partizan: Stojkovic - Aksentijevic, Ostojic, Ivanov, Volkov - Lovre, S.Markovic - L.Markovic, Babovic, Tomic - S.Scepovic
I appreciate what you are saying but I wouldn't write AEL off easily and its very dismissive to say they are better player for player all over the pitch as football isn't a game where you match the stats of one player against his opponent on the other side, if it were gambling in football wouldn't exist! What AEL have achieved is extraordinary, and to have the best defensive record in any league in Europe over a whole season is certainly something to be impressed by and I must add they play in a far better league than Partizan do, so the competition is far greater. As pg_yid observed earlier, Cypriot football is on the way up in general and they are attracting some decent players and have a decent league, Cyprus is ranked 13th in the UEFA co-efficients now higher than a lot of established nations like Austria, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, Serbia and err...Scotland. It wouldn't surprise me if this one ended in a draw, as I said earlier this one is playing on my mind far more than Fenerbahce but then this is reflected in the odds. 2.37 was too high for a home win, I think Partizan are in decline for a number of reasons but the main one is the rise in standard when they play in Europe compared with their home league which is won by Feb most seasons. I'm happy with the odds we got on at, and I wouldn't underestimate the Cypriots based on the established European hierachy.
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

I must add they play in a far better league than Partizan do' date=' so the competition is far greater.[/quote'] The Serbian league is far from being great. In fact, it's quite poor nowadays, but it's still stronger than Cyprus league and one (one has to say lucky) run by APOEL doesn't change this fact. Yes, the teams from Cyprus are attracting some decent players, but you're missing the fact that many Serbian teams, aside from Partizan and Red Star, are also producing some very good players who're are playing in the top European leagues now, like OFK Belgrade(Ivanovic from Chelsea, Kolarov from Man City and many others), Vojvodina(Jovanovic from Anderlecht, Krasic from Juventus, Kacar from Hamburger SV, etc...) and so on...,so the quality of players in the league isn't exactly the problem.The only problem of Serbian league is the fact that pretty much ALL the teams are changing the whole team every single year, the managers are selling young players on a regular basis, and the pressure of the fans and the medias is massive. BUT, Partizan have managed to keep all the best players this season, including their biggest talent - Lazar Markovic(according to some sources, already signed for Chelsea). Anyway, good luck with the bet. :)
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August Hi, i am betting professionally and from time to time i have games that i know of the final outcome. Its not any kind of fixed matches but my infallible and unmistakable instict... This just is not the place where one can write all sorts of nonsense! McNasara

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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

The Serbian league is far from being great. In fact, it's quite poor nowadays, but it's still stronger than Cyprus league and one (one has to say lucky) run by APOEL doesn't change this fact. Yes, the teams from Cyprus are attracting some decent players, but you're missing the fact that many Serbian teams, aside from Partizan and Red Star, are also producing some very good players who're are playing in the top European leagues now, like OFK Belgrade(Ivanovic from Chelsea, Kolarov from Man City and many others), Vojvodina(Jovanovic from Anderlecht, Krasic from Juventus, Kacar from Hamburger SV, etc...) and so on...,so the quality of players in the league isn't exactly the problem.The only problem of Serbian league is the fact that pretty much ALL the teams are changing the whole team every single year, the managers are selling young players on a regular basis, and the pressure of the fans and the medias is massive. BUT, Partizan have managed to keep all the best players this season, including their biggest talent - Lazar Markovic(according to some sources, already signed for Chelsea). Anyway, good luck with the bet. :)
You too, if you are betting. If Parizan are the better side and come out winners I will be the first to congratulate them.
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

one (one has to say lucky) run by APOEL doesn't change this fact.
I agree with many of your points but not this one. Check the stats for European tournaments for the last five years. Cyprus teams participated three times in group stages (APOEL - twice, Anorthosis- once), and they always played very well there. Check also Europa League. They are doing big progress, no doubt about that.
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

Injuries & suspensions Anderlecht v FK Ekranas Anderlecht: Juhasz, J.Lukaku,Vargas, Molins, Praet, Kouyate (OS) FK Ekranas: Ribokas, Velička, Fofana FC København v Club Brugge FC København: Bergvold Club Brugge: Stenman, Vlemincx, Jørgensen, Trickovski, De Jonghe CFR Cluj v Slovan Liberec CFR Cluj: Panin, Piccolo, Maftei, Hora, Celestino, Rui Pedro, Godemeche, Ganea Slovan Liberec: Rabušic, Delarge, Nezmar
Some extra injuries malabgd :ok
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

You and Fedar have put me off the clean sheet bet, so I'm just sticking to my original bet. Laddies down to 2.25 now. I agree with your comment on the other games. At this stage of the competition I think it becomes harder to find value, and/or it requires more specialist knowledge. I fancy Anderlecht to beat Ekranas, but that's hardly rocket science, was close to putting a large amount on the straight win but lack of knowledge put me off. The Dudelange game looks interesting; Maribor are probably a worse side than Salzburg. It will be interesting to see if Dudelange pull off another shock. They are 8.0 to qualify with Bwin, which is tempting.
Dudelange+2 is 2.2 with Will Hill.
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

BelgianPunter' date=' what are your thoughts on Club Brugge's chances this evening? I believe they can come away with at least a draw myself.[/quote'] Well MaierhofersNeck, I will be honest, i don't know. Kopenhagen with the new coach Jacobs (ex-Anderlecht). They have 7/9 in competition, and with their striker Abdellaoue they have a striker who can hurt the Bruges defence. But I expect a really close game between the 2 teams. So I will take the under 2.5 @ 1.9 (low stakes) and I already placed Anderlecht-Ekranas under 3.5 @ 1.8 with >Betfair (medium stakes) :hope
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

Well MaierhofersNeck, I will be honest, i don't know. Kopenhagen with the new coach Jacobs (ex-Anderlecht). They have 7/9 in competition, and with their striker Abdellaoue they have a striker who can hurt the Bruges defence. But I expect a really close game between the 2 teams. So I will take the under 2.5 @ 1.9 (low stakes) and I already placed Anderlecht-Ekranas under 3.5 @ 1.8 with >Betfair (medium stakes) :hope
not looking good m8..anderlecht 3-0 nearly HT:wall
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

NK Maribor vs Dudelange Great opportunity for Slovenians which they won't miss. The draw was extremely good for them, the last opponent to ensure the further playing in Europe, is a semi-professional club from Luxembourg. Dudelange, against whom Maribor played last season (won both meetings 2:0 and 3:1). Since then, Maribor play even better (won the title with 20 points more than the following team), beat Bosnian Željezničar twice in previous round and they aren't defeated in the last 23 consecutive games. Ibraimi (reg fw) is doubtful. On the other side, we've Dudelange, unknown to everyone, but the fact that they'd only three points more than 2nd placed league team in last season, saying that it is a pretty poor team for the European criteria. Yes, they were surprised Salzburg (1:0 and 3:4), but now would be difficult for anyone to underestimate them again. They'll be without Benzouien (reg fw, 3g) who is suspended. Maribor have much better team and great support from the stands (over 10,000 fans, Ljudski vrt is sold out). Also should be noted that Maribor already played three league games (2-1-0), while away side haven't played league match yet. Maribor -2 AH @2.10 Pinnacle low stake :clap
Maribor -2 (AH) is @2.53 at pinnacle now... strange' date= but I must take it, too. min stake :clap
4:1 nice gift from bookie, take the money and run... :cigar:cigar
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August Fener scored in 90 min. They had ZERO chances until then (one post but was romanian striker who shoted almost own goal). Bet won!

I see many bets on Fenerbahce fron you HastGill1, but I go against you on this one. took Vaslui +1 3 units @2.15 for some reasons. Here is full preview: http://romanianbet.com/2012/07/31/fenerbahce-fc-vaslui-champions-league-qualifiers/
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Re: Third qualifying round, 1st leg > 31 July - 1 August

Evening everyone, I am making my return to the board this season as hopefully I will have a tad more time to complete some write up's, so let's start here and hope for a successful season ahead. I want to give some insight into the Scottish teams involved in this round. Celtic v Helsinki - Celtic win @ 1.5 (BLUESQ) Celtic come into this tie off the back of a fairly successfull season domestically, they claimed back the championship off nearest rivals Rangers. In the close season there has not been many changes made at the club and Neil Lennon has pretty much the same squad of players to pick from for this tie on Wednesday night. Reports from up here suggest Kris Commons and Anthony Stokes may both miss out through knocks, however in my opinion Celtic should have enough to cover albeit Commons in particular will be a loss to the sides creativity. Young starlet James Forrest looks to be back to full fitness however and I would have no concerns with him coming into the side should Commons miss out, Forrest has power and pace to threaten most defences - a great outball to have for the home side. The spine of the team will stay the same with Victor Wanyama (recently linked with a big money move to Man United) and club skipper Scott Brown likely to patrol the midfield allowing Forrest, Ledley, Samaras and Hooper to mount the sides attacks. Izaguirre will likely start in at left back and he also is a great attacking option with his lung burtsing runs forward to support. Normally I wouldn't back a side at such low odds but with Celtic making mistakes at this stage last year, I can see the manager having his side well drilled and disciplined to avoid a similar speed bump this year. With Rangers being demoted to the third division, Champions League money is now vital for Celtic and the club know they must win this game on Wednesday night. Good Luck
Happy with the win in the end, sounded like Celtic could have scored more but will take the win into next weeks return leg. Nice little win on the line aswell. 2 from 2 this week so far.
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