foxinexile Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Hi All, Back with a few amendments and changes to my previous thread's "system" in the hope that this one can keep going for just a little longer! I was really enjoying posting selections on here, but unfortunately my method of choice to make selections was just too time-consuming to keep it going (my method was to trawl through all the day's games using the site Betdevil). Unfortunately my day-to-day duties - changing nappies, working etc - were getting in the way. Very inconvenient! So now I'm back with ... probably a very time-consuming thread!:lol We'll see! My main changes are to use Home Teams only, as the vast majority of selections on my previous thread were Homes, so it seems to make sense to select these only. I am no longer using the anticipation of one team to have a greater perceived percentage chance of winning a match than their opponents, so for this reason selections are based purely on odds and form. Last time around I ended using a flat bet staking plan; this time I'm going for a percentage of the bank, which will be set at 3%. When the bank drops below its starting point of 100pts (which it will!), the minimum bet will be 3pts. I don't see any point in reducing the stake by more than this if the bank decreases; a 3pt minimum allows (in my opinion!) plenty of bets to ascertain that the selections aren't profitable. However, if by some chance the bank increases beyond 100pts, the stakes will increase with it, always set at 3%. I'm not totally convinced on betting a percentage of a bank, but it should at least guarantee some longevity. Odds to be used are 1.6 to 2 and all professional leagues will be considered, bar the more obscure lower leagues (see, still time-consuming!), with leagues "qualifying" after 6 rounds. As the major European countries get going and if I find there are suddenly 30/40 selections at weekends, I'll consider revising which leagues to use. The whole point of the "system" is to try and identify where stronger Home teams are playing weaker Aways and therefore the selection criteria will be that the Home Team has won a minimum of 3/5 home matches and the Away Team has lost a minimum of 3/5 matches. All matches' odds will come from Bet365, and to check teams' form I will use the Soccerway website. Here's a more concise breakdown: 1. Home Team has won 3/5 Home matches; Away team has lost 3/5 Away matches. 2. Odds between 1.6 to 2. 3. Matches chosen from Bet365, form referenced using Soccerway. 4. Starting Bank is 100pts; staking is 3%, unless Bank drops below 100, in which case staking remains at 3pts until Bank reaches zero. That is all really, very simple. As with my previous thread I have no backtesting figures to present. The 100pt Bank is not real money, this is a paper trial only. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selection for Monday 23rd July, with team bet on in bold: Valur vs Fram @ 2.00 - 20:15, Iceland Premier League (3pts staked) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Good luck with your system. Just out of interest, any reason why you're ruling out potential selections with odds higher than 2.00? I say this because I was looking at the Valur v Fram game a day or 2 ago and I think the odds were a shade over 2.00 at the time, which would have meant you missing out on it using your criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Result for Monday 23rd July, with team bet on in bold: Valur vs Fram @ 2.00 - 20:15, Iceland Premier League - Result: 0-2 (-3pts) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Good luck with your system. Just out of interest' date=' any reason why you're ruling out potential selections with odds higher than 2.00? I say this because I was looking at the Valur v Fram game a day or 2 ago and I think the odds were a shade over 2.00 at the time, which would have meant you missing out on it using your criteria.[/quote'] Thanks Simmo. When I was looking at which odds to select, I was finding that quite a few games over 2.00 weren't fitting the criteria. Quite a lot of Home teams were managing 3+ games unbeaten, but not 3+ wins, so I used the cut-off at 2.00 just to really reduce the number of games I was checking. However, raising the maximum odds will certainly be something I will consider once there are a few more bets underway. I've just had a quick look on Bet365 for upcoming matches and have noticed that in Brazil Serie A, Nautico vs Coritiba match has Nautico at 2.20 and they have won 3/5 at home with Coritiba losing 3/5 away. I will keep a very close eye on that game and perhaps keep a note of qualifying games over 2.00 and see how many are produced and how they get on. And if anyone knows of a website where I can instantaneously select an option to look at a team's recent Home or Away form I would be very grateful, and this would then likely allow me to do away with a maximum odds limit. Thanks in advance if anyone can help!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selection for Wednesday 25th July, with team bet on in bold: Joinville vs America RN @ 1.9 - 01:00, Brazil Serie B (3pts staked) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! And if anyone knows of a website where I can instantaneously select an option to look at a team's recent Home or Away form I would be very grateful, and this would then likely allow me to do away with a maximum odds limit. Thanks in advance if anyone can help!:ok Soccerway is pretty good for this, I think. Just click on a match, then you can click "home" for the home team and "away" for the away team. The screen doesn't reload or take you anywhere different, just appears on the screen you were on. Not sure if that's exactly what you're looking for, or not? Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Soccerway is pretty good for this, I think. Just click on a match, then you can click "home" for the home team and "away" for the away team. The screen doesn't reload or take you anywhere different, just appears on the screen you were on. Not sure if that's exactly what you're looking for, or not? Cheers. Thanks, only1woz. I use Soccerway at present to reference the games, and agree that it is a good site for this sort of thing. I think I was just trying to get round having to check individual games (i.e. I was being lazy!), in the hope that there might be a site where you could get this sort of information from drop-down menus for individual leagues, but as you say the information is there in a click on Soccerway and it's not exactly a long-winded process really. Thanks for your help, I'll go forward with Soccerway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! I know you're looking at more than just the English & Scottish leagues, but for these at least, weekendfootball.co.uk does a pretty good job at giving an "at a glance" view of recent form. The fixtures section gives a handy H/A form guide next to both teams in a WWXLW format, plus recent H2Hs, whilst the "analysis" section allows you to also look at form, as well as sequences and things like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! I know you're looking at more than just the English & Scottish leagues' date=' but for these at least, weekendfootball.co.uk does a pretty good job at giving an "at a glance" view of recent form. The fixtures section gives a handy H/A form guide next to both teams in a WWXLW format, plus recent H2Hs, whilst the "analysis" section allows you to also look at form, as well as sequences and things like that.[/quote'] Cheers Simmo, I haven't seen that site before. The information and layout in the fixtures section is ideal, and exactly what I was trying to look for. I think what I'll do is use that site to check for matches that meet the criteria and where the Home team has odds over 2.00. I'm really intrigued now to see how those selections would get on. And if I just stick to the English and Scottish leagues for that it adds a bit of extra discipline too! Thanks again!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Result for Wednesday 25th July, with team bet on in bold: Joinville vs America RN @ 1.9 - 01:00, Brazil Serie B - Score: 1-0 (+2.72pts) Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 99.72 Staked: 6 Bets: 2 Win: 1 S/R: 50% P/L: -0.28 Yield: -4.67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selection for Wednesday 25th July, with team bet on in bold: Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife @ 1.72 - 23:30, Brazil Serie A (3pts staked) Selection for Thursday 26th July, with team bet on in bold: FBC Melgar vs Juan Aurich @ 1.9 - 01:30, Peru Primera Division (3pts staked) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Result for Wednesday 25th July, with team bet on in bold: Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife @ 1.72 - Score: 1-1 (-3pts) Result for Thursday 26th July, with team bet on in bold: FBC Melgar vs Juan Aurich @ 1.9 - Score: 1-1 (-3pts) Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 93.72 Staked: 12 Bets: 4 Win: 1 S/R: 25% P/L: -6.28 Yield: -52.33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selections for Friday 27th July, with teams bet on in bold: Flamengo vs Portuguesa @ 1.72 - 01:00, Brazil Serie A (3pts staked) Atvidabergs vs Orebro @ 1.72 - 18:00, Sweden Allsvenskan (3pts staked) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Results for Friday 27th July, with teams bet on in bold: Flamengo vs Portuguesa @ 1.72 - Score: 0-0 (-3pts) Atvidabergs vs Orebro @ 1.72 - Score: 1-1 (-3pts) Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 87.72 Staked: 18 Bets: 6 Win: 1 S/R: 17% P/L: -12.28 Yield: -68.22% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selections for Saturday 28th July, with teams bet on in bold: Avai vs Bragantino @ 1.8 - 01:00, Brazil Serie B Osters vs Ljungskile @ 1.61 - 15:00, Sweden Superettan Leon Huanuco vs Deportivo San Martin @ 1.8 - 19:45, Peru Primera Division Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion @ 1.85 - 22:30, Paraguay Division Profesional 3pts staked on each team backed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selections for Sunday 29th July, with teams bet on in bold: San Jose Earthquakes vs Chicago Fire @ 1.72 - 03:30, USA MLS Sandefjord vs Hodd @ 1.65 - 17:00, Norway Division One Angelholm vs Trelleborgs @ 1.72 - 17:00, Sweden Superettan Sao Paulo vs Flamengo @ 1.72 - 20:00, Brazil Serie A Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras @ 1.83 - 22:30, Brazil Serie A Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Quito @ 1.7 - 22:30, Ecuador Primera A Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Huila @ 1.9 - 23:45, Colombia Primera A 3 pts staked on each team backed. All weekend results and Bank will be updated Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Results for Saturday 28th July, with teams bet on in bold: Avai vs Bragantino @ 1.8 - Score: 1-0 (+2.4pts) Osters vs Ljungskile @ 1.61 - Score: 0-0 (-3pts) Leon Huanuco vs Deportivo San Martin @ 1.8 - Score: 2-2 (-3pts) Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion @ 1.85 - Score: 1-0 (+2.55pts) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Results for Sunday 29th July, with teams bet on in bold: San Jose Earthquakes vs Chicago Fire @ 1.72 - Score: 1-1 (-3pts) Sandefjord vs Hodd @ 1.65 - Score: 1-0 (+1.95pts) Angelholm vs Trelleborgs @ 1.72 - Score: 1-4 (-3pts) Sao Paulo vs Flamengo @ 1.72 - Score: 4-1 (+2.18pts) Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras @ 1.83 - Score: 2-1 (2.5pts) Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Quito @ 1.7 - Score: 1-0 (+2.1pts) Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Huila @ 1.9 - Score: 2-0 (+2.72pts) Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 92.12 Staked: 51 Bets: 17 Win: 8 S/R: 47% P/L: -7.88 Yield: -15.45% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selections for Tuesday 31st July, with teams bet on in bold: America MG vs Joinville @ 1.72 - 23:30, Brazil Serie B Ceara vs Boa @ 1.61 - 23:30, Brazil Serie B Parana vs Avai @ 2.00 - 23:30, Brazil Serie B 3pts staked on each team backed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Results for Tuesday 31st July, with teams bet on in bold: America MG vs Joinville @ 1.72 - Score: 0-2 (-3pts) Ceara vs Boa @ 1.61 - Score: 1-1 (-3pts) Parana vs Avai @ 2.00 - Score: 1-1 (-3pts) Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 83.12 Staked: 60 Bets: 20 Win: 8 S/R: 40% P/L: -16.88 Yield: -28.13% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Not being cheeky mate, but if youd backed the draw in all these games, youd be doing quite well! DNB or double chance, maybe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Not being cheeky mate, but if youd backed the draw in all these games, youd be doing quite well! DNB or double chance, maybe? Ha Ha! I was thinking the exact same thing myself when updating the results this morning! I think as there's only been 20 bets so far, I'll let it run its course with the current criteria for a little while longer, but if it gets to 100 bets (which is no guarantee at all at the minute!) I'll do an analysis and see how many losing bets ended in a Draw and see how that would have affected the Profit/Loss. I had the same thing happening on my other thread, where quite a few losing bets ended in a Draw, and did mention there about placing 2/3 selections together in a Double Chance accumulator. I never did it though as I'm not really much of an accumulator person myself but it'd be food for thought. So, far from being cheeky you've actually planted the seeds of the next few threads in my mind which, using the same selection criteria, could be: Foxinexile's "Winners" Take Three! - Backing the Draw. Foxinexile's "Winners" Take Four! - Double/Treble Double Chance Accumulators Foxinexile's "Winners" Take Five! - DNB Should keep me occupied for the next year at least and maybe one of them might show a profit over a longer term. We'll see! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selections for Saturday 4th August, with teams bet on in bold: Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo @ 2.00 - 10:00, Japan J-League Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse @ 1.72 - 11:00, Japan J-League Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye @ 1.66 - 12:30, China Super League Ljungskile vs Jonkopings @ 1.80 - 15:00, Sweden Superettan 3pts staked on each team backed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selections for Sunday 5th August, with teams bet on in bold: Montreal Impact vs Philadelphia Union @ 2.00 - 00:30, USA MLS Portuguesa vs Figueirense @ 1.9 - 01:00, Brazil Serie A Jiangsu Sainty vs Shandong Luneng @ 1.61 - 12:40, China Super League Ham-Kam vs Kongsvinger @ 1.7 - 14:00, Norway Division One Malmo vs Hacken @ 1.7 - 15:00, Sweden Allsvenskan Mjondalen vs Ullensaker @ 1.75 - 17:00, Norway Division One AIK vs Kalmar @ 1.7 - 17:30, Sweden Allsvenskan Olmedo vs Liga de Loja @ 1.9 - 18:00, Ecuador Primera A Sol de America vs Rubio Nu @ 1.66 - 20:00, Paraguay Division Profesional Cruzeiro vs Ponte Preta @ 1.65 - 22:30, Brazil Serie A Selection for Monday 6th August, with team bet on in bold: Atletico Nacional vs Itagui @ 1.75 - 01:45, Colombia Primera A 3pts staked on each team backed. All weekend/Monday results and Bank will be updated Monday evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Results for Saturday 4th August, with teams bet on in bold: Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo @ 2.00 - Score: 2-2 (-3pts) Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse @ 1.72 - Score: 1-2 (-3pts) Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye @ 1.66 - Score: 2-2 (-3pts) Ljungskile vs Jonkopings @ 1.80 - Score: 1-0 (+2.4pts) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Results for Sunday 5th August, with teams bet on in bold: Montreal Impact vs Philadelphia Union @ 2.00 - 2-0 (+3pts) Portuguesa vs Figueirense @ 1.9 - Score: 2-0 (+2.72pts) Jiangsu Sainty vs Shandong Luneng @ 1.61 - Score: 3-3 (-3pts) Ham-Kam vs Kongsvinger @ 1.7 - Score: 0-5 (-3pts) Malmo vs Hacken @ 1.7 - Score: 0-0 (-3pts) Mjondalen vs Ullensaker @ 1.75 - Score: 2-1 (+2.25pts) AIK vs Kalmar @ 1.7 - Score: 1-2 (-3pts) Olmedo vs Liga de Loja @ 1.9 - Score: 2-1 (+2.72pts) Sol de America vs Rubio Nu @ 1.66 - Score: 1-1 (-3pts) Cruzeiro vs Ponte Preta @ 1.65 - Score: 1-2 (-3pts) Result for Monday 6th August, with team bet on in bold: Atletico Nacional vs Itagui @ 1.75 - Score: 1-1 (-3pts) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Start Bank: 100 Current Bank: 66.21 Staked: 105 Bets: 35 Win: 13 S/R: 37% P/L: -33.79 Yield: -32.18% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aderuk Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! I think I posted on your previous thread regarding the high amount of draws you seem to produce with your system, why not run a virtual bank along side your official bank and see how it compares.You may have something here regarding draws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Re: Foxinexile's "Winners" - Take Two! Selection for Wednesday 8th August, with team bet on in bold: America RN vs Atletico PR @ 2.00 - 01:00, Brazil Serie B (3pts staked) 3pts staked on each team backed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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