The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs...

[The Saint]

Bit of a punt but here goes.... I am trying to make my bets more 'objective'. Ratings are being translated into odds and providing me with a price I should be looking at to back at (or potentially lay at I guess) through a newly developed spreadsheet. Still trialing... I use my own ratings but need an adjustment for the draw. EG - If you are drawn 1 at Chester in a 5f affair it is probably worth say 3 lengths over someone drawn in 12. I know there is pace etc to consider too but I am going to generalise at this point. So that would maybe equate to a plus 9 if drawn 1-3, 7 if drawn 4-6 etc etc. I can, of course go thorugh a very long process of getting previous results and attributing so many pounds on or off depending on the race circumstance... Has anyone ever done this before though?! I can't find anything like it on the inet and was quite surprised to be honest... Cheers - not expecting to be knocked over in the rush! :)

[richard-westwood]

Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... i love stuff like this ............of course it has to have an effect .......its easy at courses like chester but difficulty comes in when you have to try and interpret the draws at courses where the bias is negligable or varies wildly as you will get big bias's in your ratings which is why i never programmed a definative draw rating into my spreadsheet ......i always check the draw after ive rated a standard 3 lengths is around 9.6 at 5f dropping to about 6.4 over 1 mile so will change depending on distance also ..... lets take the 5f chester as example draw 1-4 9.6lbs 5-9 7.2 lbs 10 2lbs 11 or above 0 lbs (in fact negative 5lbs ) especially in hcap in fact no horse has won a hcap 5f race from draw 11 or above in 5years i think so if your horse is drawn in those stalls you just wont get a run for your money .....end of