The Saint Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Bit of a punt but here goes.... I am trying to make my bets more 'objective'. Ratings are being translated into odds and providing me with a price I should be looking at to back at (or potentially lay at I guess) through a newly developed spreadsheet. Still trialing... I use my own ratings but need an adjustment for the draw. EG - If you are drawn 1 at Chester in a 5f affair it is probably worth say 3 lengths over someone drawn in 12. I know there is pace etc to consider too but I am going to generalise at this point. So that would maybe equate to a plus 9 if drawn 1-3, 7 if drawn 4-6 etc etc. I can, of course go thorugh a very long process of getting previous results and attributing so many pounds on or off depending on the race circumstance... Has anyone ever done this before though?! I can't find anything like it on the inet and was quite surprised to be honest... Cheers - not expecting to be knocked over in the rush! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... i love stuff like this ............of course it has to have an effect .......its easy at courses like chester but difficulty comes in when you have to try and interpret the draws at courses where the bias is negligable or varies wildly as you will get big bias's in your ratings which is why i never programmed a definative draw rating into my spreadsheet ......i always check the draw after ive rated a standard 3 lengths is around 9.6 at 5f dropping to about 6.4 over 1 mile so will change depending on distance also ..... lets take the 5f chester as example draw 1-4 9.6lbs 5-9 7.2 lbs 10 2lbs 11 or above 0 lbs (in fact negative 5lbs ) especially in hcap in fact no horse has won a hcap 5f race from draw 11 or above in 5years i think so if your horse is drawn in those stalls you just wont get a run for your money .....end of Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisman Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... very interesting. I had a couple of pints with a chum last night and we spent some time debating how we each compile a 'rating' for horses in a particular race and the 'weighting' we give to particular factors. Needless to say we had quite a difference in opinions, although one area we did have some consensus on was that if we assume that a mature pre-race market on the exchanges was relatively efficient in terms of being the closest (at the top end of the market it must be said) to the correct odds for the individual animal winning ,that as the relative merits or otherwise of the draw are now generally much wider known than previously this factor would generally be taken into account when formulating odds. I'm not saying of course that the draw is not of significance just that that particular factor is more than likely factored into the prices already perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisman Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... Just a thought-one area I've been looking into recently is reviewing a particular race where there was a result which was statistically against the draw bias-what particular factor enabled it to win from an unfavourable draw, are there common factors which may account for an unlikely win in thses cases? say for example only 10% win from a particular 'unfavourable' stall at a particular track, these may well go off at very large odds especially on the exchanges as your average 'system stat based punter' would be more likely to back individuals in the more favourable stalls - so conversely these may well be underbet and go off at very favourable backing odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted July 19, 2012 Author Share Posted July 19, 2012 Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... very interesting. I had a couple of pints with a chum last night and we spent some time debating how we each compile a 'rating' for horses in a particular race and the 'weighting' we give to particular factors. Needless to say we had quite a difference in opinions, although one area we did have some consensus on was that if we assume that a mature pre-race market on the exchanges was relatively efficient in terms of being the closest (at the top end of the market it must be said) to the correct odds for the individual animal winning ,that as the relative merits or otherwise of the draw are now generally much wider known than previously this factor would generally be taken into account when formulating odds. I'm not saying of course that the draw is not of significance just that that particular factor is more than likely factored into the prices already perhaps. I would tend to agree... But of course, what I am trying to do is factor it into my ratings and therefore betting tissue before the Betfair market settles to 'correct' prices and I can take advantage of what my ratings/odds precieve to be value. Of course - at the moment, if my top rated is drawn in 12 over 5f @ Chester then my ratings/odds do not reflect this disadvantage. I guess I am just after a quick and easy method - and by quick and easy, I mean something I can refer to and take 20 seconds to input!! No shortcuts I'm guessing.... I will probaby end up with some formula or other from 'Draw Check' on ATR dependent on the conditions etc. It is already seeming like alot of work....:sad I really want it to be 'objective' rather than 'subjective though... Thank you for the response both...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted July 19, 2012 Author Share Posted July 19, 2012 Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... Just a thought-one area I've been looking into recently is reviewing a particular race where there was a result which was statistically against the draw bias-what particular factor enabled it to win from an unfavourable draw, are there common factors which may account for an unlikely win in thses cases? say for example only 10% win from a particular 'unfavourable' stall at a particular track, these may well go off at very large odds especially on the exchanges as your average 'system stat based punter' would be more likely to back individuals in the more favourable stalls - so conversely these may well be underbet and go off at very favourable backing odds. It's true... The thought just occurred to me that after all the effort, it may not be worth it at all and steer me away from big prices.... If it's soft at Chester and they go hurtling off, the wider drawn horses have more of a chance than on a normal day with a standard pace for example... As you say, punters will be backing stalls 1, 2 & 3 blindly regardless. No shortcuts, but frankly, I will take some if it keeps results positive and doesn't involve me thinking about racing 24/7!! I at least want to cut doen to 12/7!!!!:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisman Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Re: The Effect of the Draw.... Put into lbs... It's true... The thought just occurred to me that after all the effort, it may not be worth it at all and steer me away from big prices.... If it's soft at Chester and they go hurtling off, the wider drawn horses have more of a chance than on a normal day with a standard pace for example... As you say, punters will be backing stalls 1, 2 & 3 blindly regardless. No shortcuts, but frankly, I will take some if it keeps results positive and doesn't involve me thinking about racing 24/7!! I at least want to cut doen to 12/7!!!!:rollin No it's not wasting time with effort I always thinks its worth an effort researching things and can often throw up unexpected ideas. One of the things I've been struggling with recently is the more you look into things the more factors you may need to consider but conversely its those maybe small factors that the general 'market consensus' arn't considering that may give you an edge and that can be enough to have long term profits. strangely enough some of my best results recently have been when I've only had a limited amount of time to consider a race-statistics are only part of the answer-it's how you interpret them which is the important point which will always be subjective I guess! IT's a good idea to try to get a favourable early price on Betfair certainly for trading purposes and you could always use the trading profits from that on a daily basis as pure punting money-so a free bet really. That's generally what I've been doing recently with my tennis traiding profits . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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