Alexc Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Osijek clean sheet is up on Bet365 now as well, 1.25. Probably still a good bet, though it looks a bit short when you compare it to the 1.55's in the other pub team matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July I got Gomel at... I can't remember now, but it was around the same price as Metalurgs currently. I doubt there's anything in it, these teams are most likely a similar level of pub league-iness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fedar Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July I don't know, but if the bookies think so, then it is right that valuing qualifying rounds in Europe are not their best faculty. Osijek is very mediocre Croatian team which very rarely finishes above 6-7th place, and which qualified in Europe only because they made it to the final of cup, where they got thrashed by Dinamo. They haven't played in Europe for 10 years. The record of Croatian teams, other than Dinamo and Haiduk, is not impressive at all in Europe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Bwin has this up @ 1.35 now' date=' mate. I wouldn't use Bwin with stolen money, so am lucked out.[/quote'] Thanks, didn't check bwin today but have been most days, I've only opened an account with them for the Europa qualifiers as they have more markets than most. I'll be honest I don't think there is any chance at all that the Andorran's will score, they will have 25% of the possession but totally lack any cohesion going forward. I understand why the bookies think Twente will let up as they are 6-0 up but the Andorrans skill level is so far off Twente its untrue. The difference between these type of sides is huge, its one thing to stick 11 men behind the ball for 90minutes, its another to actually go forward and create attacks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Btw' date=' anyone got the idea why betfair values Metalurgs clean-sheet vs. Fiorita at such price, since similar bets (Gomel and Osijek clean sheets) are priced much much lower - at 1.05. Is there something that we don't know about Metalurgs and Fiorita and somebody in the market is familiar with?![/quote'] I'm wondering the same mate, a few of us are actually :lol..I can't help answer your question but there doesn't seem much logic to it. I have quite a bit invested with this one now, hopefully the bookies don't know anymore than they should on this one. There was a relatively large amount being traded on it on betfair in comparison to the same markets in similar games. Guess we'll know soon enough.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fedar Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Price on clean sheet for Metalurgs is getting up on bet365!!! It was 1.22 a few minutes ago, now it is 1.40. It is gettng pretty suspicious... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soundingstylish Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Stabaek x JJK - JJK @ 4/1 (Generally available) This is much more of a price play than a solid bet. Stabaek should not be 4/6...not having that at all! I've seen Stabaek play a couple of times now and they either turn up or they don't, for the majority of the time they don't. JJK are two-nil up from the first leg, which they dominated, but with Gruborovics and Wusu they have a decent counter-attacking set-up in place if the chances do arise. Gruborovics is JJK. He pulls the strings, he scores the goals. He turns up, JJK have a better than a 4/1 chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godmato Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July I watched Torpedo Kutaisi in 2 friendly games in Austria and they are very underish team with good defence and good lesson of counter attack. I don;t believe they will open the game soon despite only 1-1 on home ground. Under 2.5 @1.8 can be good choice for small bet if game is played fair! 1-0 ft under easy. goal after 70 min :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Yeah, they did pull it pretty quick! I stuck some more on at that price, don't see the logic in it personally. Bookies don't have a clue how to price up the games with the minnows involved. I was on the bet365 site when they marked up the under 5.0,5.5 (an inferior bet to the one pg described above) on the Twente game it was at 1.80 for two mins then they dropped it twice to 1.675 within 30 seconds then took it off totally! Now back up at 1.7. Been betting on FC Santa Coloma not to score against NK Osijek on panbet and they keep giving me restrictions on the usual clean sheet markets we all use, but if I log out and log in again the restrictions reset themselves! :lol..hopefully they will honour the bets and I won't get banned.. Out of interest, what price did you get on Panbet? All my Metalurgs bets came in (did -2.75AH as well) so it'll be a good day now whatever happens, although the Twente under 5.5 bet looks in danger with them being 3-0 up already before half time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Out of interest, what price did you get on Panbet? All my Metalurgs bets came in (did -2.75AH as well) so it'll be a good day now whatever happens, although the Twente under 5.5 bet looks in danger with them being 3-0 up already before half time! 1.50 took a bit of 1.44 as well. Twente bet is looking very dodgy I agree! Can see it being 6 or 7-0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July 1.50 took a bit of 1.44 as well. Twente bet is looking very dodgy I agree! Can see it being 6 or 7-0. Amazing price, well done and hope you don't get banned. I need to get an account with them. Hope Twente give up 2nd half, but normally these minnows tire and get worse second half as you know! If it's 6-0 I get half my original stake back, 7 and I lose the original bet plus cover bet. Also did the clean sheet bet with Bwin but not really worried about that. Nowhere seems to have the Twente game in-play, or if they have I must have not seen it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Amazing price' date=' well done and hope you don't get banned. I need to get an account with them. Hope Twente give up 2nd half, but normally these minnows tire and get worse second half as you know! If it's 6-0 I get half my original stake back, 7 and I lose the original bet plus cover bet. Also did the clean sheet bet with Bwin but not really worried about that. Nowhere seems to have the Twente game in-play, or if they have I must have not seen it.[/quote'] Panbet are a decent bookie as far as I'm concerned, they have some good prices too on random markets like that one. Santa Coloma hanging on! I'm waiting for the inevitable 70minute onwards collapse.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July Metalurgi Rustavi -2.5 @ 2.85 :) Olimpija Ljubljana -1.5 @ 2.54 :) Rosenborg -3 (EH) @ 2.20 :( Disappointed in the Rosenborg game which they controlled, and should have won by more than the 1-0 as not only did they miss a penalty but some other chances as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Re: First qualifying round, 2nd leg > 10-12 July UE Santa Coloma vs FC Twente Under 5.5 @ 1.9 (Bet365) 4/10 I think the line is so high here because of Twente's name and reputation, but conversely I find that it is often the smaller clubs with more of a point to prove who have the biggest desire to thrash teams in these situations. UE Santa Coloma will try and defend and keep the score down. I didn't watch the first game but from what I've read Twente played it like a practice game for much of the first half before clicking into gear. Although there is an immense quality difference between the two sides, Twente will find things harder in Andorra with the altitude and poor (normally plastic) surfaces, and without home fans to cheer them on I don't think they'll have too much incentive to treat the game as anything other than a friendly. I very much doubt the home side will score which helps this bet; Andorran sides very rarely score and they won't have much of the ball at all here. This bet would have only lost once in all of the home European ties of Andorran sides in the last five years, although there have been a few 0-5 scorelines. It's difficult to set this line right and I think Bet365 have overestimated the chances of 0-6, 0-7 and beyond. It may be worth covering the 0-6 scoreline though. As they 'only' scored 6 at home with their fans to please, I doubt they will go beyond that in Andorra. Was fine in the end, didn't see the game (not sure it was possible to see it without being there) but it seems Twente relaxed a lot in the second half. Excellent night overall for me with everything coming in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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