Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Gordonsville drifts to 12/1 and is beaten a length with about 7 lengths back to the third. Sometimes you just want to break things!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps First Post 2nd. Kill me right now.

[kroni]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Every time i look in here you've had horses come 2nd or 3rd, can't beleive how unlucky you have been, surely you would be better off backing them e-w, i personally back mostly e-w as that would kill me getting all those places when i've bet on the win only. Obviously nothing wrong with your selections as they run well so the winners surely will come soon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Every time i look in here you've had horses come 2nd or 3rd' date=' can't beleive how unlucky you have been, surely you would be better off backing them e-w, i personally back mostly e-w as that would kill me getting all those places when i've bet on the win only. Obviously nothing wrong with your selections as they run well so the winners surely will come soon.[/quote'] I'd say it happens quite a lot but to be fair I'll still have a fair few which don't - it's just obviously those are the most frustrating when you're win only. I've explained my reasons before it earlier on in the thread and obviously I do think "why didn't I just go each way?!" a fair amount of the time but it feels justified when you get a nice winner. I've said for ages that I'm happy with my selections as most give me a run for my money at decent prices so as long as I keep doing the same things it should come right in the end. Cheers.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps And a drifter after a while off the track. -50.5pts and the hard work to get to -8 undone again. Fingers crossed for a big Saturday. Momentum has swung so many times of late.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Keep doing what your doing mate. All it needs is a couple of tweeks, win betting is a proven winner, just takes time to find your own personal way of making profit.. Your the unluckiest punter alive, the amount of big priced places you have had is unreal, all you need is 2 or 3 of those to go your way and your well into profit, it is all small margins. I say keep doing what your doing, no point doing e/w if your not comfortable doing it.

[Lars]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Don't you think Ben that you're significantly overstaking? You're on a 1-5pt scale it seems, and in your past 20 bets (I'm using this as its conveniently on the same page), you've staked 48pts. That's only in the past 9 days and that's a huge outlay IMO, especially to the scale you're using. Perhaps when you've analysed a bet and you're thinking of sticking 3pts on it, taking a step back and reconsidering how strong a bet it really is might be useful as I do get the impression you get a bit carried away on certain days. It's all well and good when you're staking quite heavily and things come off for you, but at the general prices you're backing them at (kind of similar to my own) you're always going to get long losing runs and if it goes on for a little longer than you'd expect, that's going to create a big dent in your betting bank. Just my two cents, of course.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

Don't you think Ben that you're significantly overstaking? You're on a 1-5pt scale it seems, and in your past 20 bets (I'm using this as its conveniently on the same page), you've staked 48pts. That's only in the past 9 days and that's a huge outlay IMO, especially to the scale you're using. Perhaps when you've analysed a bet and you're thinking of sticking 3pts on it, taking a step back and reconsidering how strong a bet it really is might be useful as I do get the impression you get a bit carried away on certain days. It's all well and good when you're staking quite heavily and things come off for you, but at the general prices you're backing them at (kind of similar to my own) you're always going to get long losing runs and if it goes on for a little longer than you'd expect, that's going to create a big dent in your betting bank. Just my two cents, of course.

To be honest I'd say 2pts is my standard bet rather than 1pt so the majority of my bets are 2pts and those a bit stronger would be 3pt bets. I don't like using 1pt as standard because on a 1-5 scale that doesn't give me scope for a punt on an outsider which is obviously a speculative bet - ie. not equal to my standard picks. If I have a standard confident selection at 12/1 but only put 1pt on it, I can't go lower if there's a bet at say 33/1 (and I'm not saying odds affect the stake so much) and it's impossible to be as confident, I wouldn't advise/bet the same stakes as the 12/1 if that makes sense? The fact that I don't have one of these speculative punts that often, it just appears as if I'm neglecting minimum stakes. The vast majority of my selections are 2pts and 3pts for those I have more faith in. I take a lot more time on establishing the strength of my bets now and only one of the last 44 have been worthy of a 4pt bet. In my mind my staking makes sense but because I have basically learned from myself and my own errors I don't know what the desirable strategy is and if you could tell me the reasoning behind altering things then I might be able to understand and improve my betting once again. I think I'm plenty better on that front already, as well as actually picking them out, so I don't think I'm far away for someone without much experience in the game. Cheers for the input :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Oh and Josh - I've had a look back at your thread from last summer and it's encouraging to see you've come on plenty since then and the thread reminds me of mine at times so things that you've learned from then are very welcomed to me :ok Got three lined up today. 5pts staked and hopefully will get a return. There are a couple of others that I could easily have backed but I've given them plenty of thought this evening and they just have too many questions to answer I think to make them worthy of a bet. Write-ups will be posted shortly. EDIT: Do you reckon extending the stake boundaries to 0.5pts-5pts would be a good idea? In theory that would allow 1pt as a more standard bet with room for a smaller, more speculative bet, and that would reduce the danger with a 100pt bank?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.00 Sandown - 1pt win Pekan Star @ 25/1 (SJ) I really like Mijhaar as a horse and probably would have backed him on soft ground but he probably would have to have those conditions for me to be backing him at 4/1 in a competitive handicap off top-weight. For that reason I've decided to have a small bet on Roger Varian's other runner in the field, who is a smart horse in his own right when he wants to be, and hopefully he can bounce back to form today. His first two wins of his career came on the back of a lengthy absence from the track, including a good success in a York handicap on just his third start. It was a taking run which suggested the horse was a potential group horse in a handicap as he won nicely off a mark of 85. He hasn't gone on since then which is a shame and that is what makes this bet a speculative one, but he's coming down the weights and has had excuses at times. Punters kept the faith two starts on from that victory (having disappointed over the same c&d next time) and he ran okay but suffered from a pace bias on the July Course when struggling to get involved from the rear (race order roughly stayed the same). He wasn't beaten too far though and was finishing well enough. He's been well-held since but soft ground was a legitimate excuse over 1m4f at Doncaster on his final run of 2011 and not much went right on his seasonal return at Epsom. He was well-backed on this occasion (no great surprise given his form when fresh) into 11/2 but pulled fiercely throughout and hated the track as he hung badly left up the straight and was eased home in the end by Neil Callan. I think that run can safely be ignored, for all it didn't help us gauge whether he was in better form or not. Similarly his run last time is another one that can be excused as he was on pacemaking duty in a Group 2 (had no chance at weights) when helping set it up for his stablemate Sri Putra. Returns back to a more reasonable target off a fair mark and conditions suit. This trip on a relatively flat track and decent ground give him no excuses so long as he can hold a decent position from his wide berth. The hood is retained from last time to presumably keep him settled down and he could be a forgotten horse with the ability to bounce back having just had eight runs in his career to date.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.55 Chester - 2pts win New Youmzain @ 10/1 (VC) Posted this before his run at Sandown:

2.30 Sandown - 2pts win New Youmzain @ 8/1 (Hills) Mick Channon's runner is one of the more unexposed in the field and still looked to be learning on his second start last time when he got off the mark at Thirsk. He battled on very well when drawing clear with the runner-up (who had headed him at one point) and pulled on at the finish to score by a 1/2l, with the margin growing at the line approached. I think he's going to improve for the run again, having shaped well to finish 3rd on debut (green, staying on) and the step up in trip by 2f will be another big help I think. He's by a Derby/Arc winner and out of a classy 13f winner so there's stamina there and evidence so far has suggested this trip will be ideal. The race he won last time could have worked out better but I still think this is a horse with good potential and can ruffle some feathers today.

Never got involved in this from the rear but was off the track for a month and a half going into it and the market didn't speak favourably as he drifted out in the betting. The ground was possibly on the sharp side to and given the form he showed in two runs before that I think there's every chance he'll bounce back today with conditions more in his favour and with that run under his belt. The softer ground will help and I don't envisage the step up to two miles will inconvenience either. He's been dropped 3lbs for that and the hood is applied for the first time. He does exit his age range for the first time but he receives weight all round being the only 3yo in the field. Not drawn badly and there looks a lot of pace on here which should allow him to get a decent tow into the race. Can put that blip behind him today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.05 Sandown - 2pts win Attenborough @ 8/1 (PP) Jeremy Noseda's runner hasn't gone on since winning on his racecourse debut he's still very lightly-raced having only run four times and there have been reasons why he hasn't managed to get his head in front again since. That August victory at Haydock was the only time we saw him in 2011 so the lengthy absence was a legitimate excuse when fading over 1m2f at Doncaster on his seasonal return, for all he was sent off a strong favourite on that occasion. I think since he's suggested that a mile might just suit better so that's another point to factor into that run. He finished midfield over 1m1f at Goodwood next time but the Noseda yard weren't banging in the winners leading up to that race and he possibly just ran a little close to the pace as those that prospered tended to be waited with towards the rear. He travelled well enough though and I don't think the track there was ideal for him either as I see him as more of a galloping type. I watched him closely at Nottingham last time with his sights lowered over 1m2f and he travelled better than anything into the race but couldn't pick up as well as expected as the easy winner stormed clear. Despite the race not being the best, the ground was softer than the described good going and connections clearly feel he's a fast ground horse as he was pulled out of a race at Windsor last weekend due to rain. There shouldn't be an issue today with the ground as it looks sure to be on the quick ground. He still managed to finish 3rd (winner accounted for vast majority of losing margin) and I think the way he travelled suggested the return to a mile will help. He's been dropped a further 1lb for that and I think the track and ground will suit perfectly for him here. Buick's up for the first time and I'm optimistic of a good run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Encouraging to see the market speak favourably of New Youmzain today unlike last time. Into around 6/1 at present. With a 15p rule 4 (I think) I've got 17/2 which I'm happy enough with and he's the most backed horse in the race on Betfair so fingers crossed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps New Youmzain won well. Pekan Star still bang out of nick. Attenborough wouldn't have been far away at all with a clear run. Shame but a decent day thanks to the Channon runner.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Oh and I thought quite a lot about backing Tominator again today having been on in the Ebor. Ho hum.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps August: Bets: 87 Wins: 11 Placed: 23 Staked: 202pts Returned: 225.5pts P/L: +23.5pts September: Bets: 3 Wins: 1 Placed: 0 Staked: 5pts Returned: 19pts P/L: +14pts Overall: Bets: 215 Wins: 26 Placed: 56 Staked: 534pts Returned: 497.5pts P/L: -36.5pts (Bank: 63.5pts)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.30 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Knowe Head @ 12/1 (BlueSQ) Backed the favourite last time and should go well once more but the extra furlong could make things a bit tricky considering his form has come over shorter. James Unett's runner is a consistent type at Wolverhampton and can hopefully run another big race at the venue this afternoon. He's won twice here from 9 starts and has only been beaten a maximum of 2 1/2l on those occasions so he clearly relishes the all-weather surface at the track. He seems to have improved a bit since last seen winning here off 72 in February which means a mark of 76 might not be beyond him under ideal conditions. He also has run better since taking a more prominent position and this seems very plausible from his draw in stall 2 today. Although he disappointed last time out at Chester when coming home in last, it was a very decent race with soft ground and his wide draw probably not helping. He's had a break to freshen him up since then and his form prior to that gives him a chance here (narrowly beaten by subsequent winner at Chester) and a win at Newmarket three starts back. Returns to his beloved Wolves this afternoon and he should be bang on the premises once more.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.30 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Abraq @ 6/1 (SJ) Ed Dunlop's horses are flying and I'm very interested in his colt here on his nursery debut - especially with Richard Hughes up for the first time. Having been well beaten in a Newmarket maiden on debut, he stepped up nicely on that to finish 4l behind the winner at the same venue under the same conditions (7f, soft ground). That was a decent race and he finished nicely enough at the death with a subsequent winner off higher than my selection runs off today, just in behind him. He took on the all-weather for the first time at Kempton last time out and put in a highly encouraging performance. When the track was riding slow it paid to be up with the pace so it was nice to see him finish well from the rear of mid-division. He wasn't unduly knocked about when coming home nicely under a hands ride at the finish, despite the front-two (both Godolphin) pulling clear. He shaped as if the step up to a mile would help him plenty and his mark doesn't look hugely restrictive given the tender handling used. Proved he can handle the polytrack and I think he'll prove to be a big threat today under a stronger ride with Richard Hughes going all out for the jockey's championship. The favourite is well-in but this race is under much different conditions than at Newcastle last time out and can be opposed at the price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.40 Haydock - 2pts win Ustura @ 9/2 (Bet365) The three year olds might take some pegging back here with their weight allowances and all of them look decent sorts. However, the Godolphin runner looks especially interesting to me as he steps up to 1m4f. He looked a real middle-distance type when getting off the mark at Kempton last time out and his pedigree suggests he should be a good horse at around this trip. He ran a promising race on debut at Doncaster when finishing well over 1m2f and he needed all of that trip to get his head in front on the polytrack last time. However, the surface at Kempton was riding on the slow side at the time and it favoured those up with the pace so for him to come from the rear and snatch it, I think the performance can be upgraded. He had a solid mid 70s horse well-held back in 3rd and suggested that he really could do with the extra two furlongs on offer today. He really finished well having looked held and I see no issues with the track, trip or surface today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps First two home were 3yos but not the right one in front. Could only manage 2nd.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.40 Brighton - 2pts win Almuftarris @ 8/1 (Bet365) Posted this last time out:

2.30 Newcastle - 1pt win Almuftarris @ 7/1 (Bet365) I didn't like many of these at all if I'm honest and I find it very interesting that Ed Dunlop sends this one up to Newcastle. He's a trainer with a fantastic record at this track with 5 of his 10 runners coming home in front. That stat improves to 4 out of 7 with 3yos so I highly doubt he's bringing this top-weight up north without having a serious chance - especially when you consider his only other runner on the card is a maiden with only an outside chance at 10/1. Paul Mulrennan has a 25% strike rate for the yard and although this horse hasn't run too well of late I think he's capable of bouncing back in this lower grade. He looked good in maidens in two efforts last year and when getting off the mark on his first run of this season. He was a 5l 6th on debut over 7f in a hot field (winner now rated 109 and 3rd 108). Up to a mile next time out he chased home the very smart Main Sequence to the tune of 1 1/4l. The horse he got the better over on his first run of 2012 at Lingfield over 1m2f dotted up last time out to get a mark of 85 (12lbs higher than my selection here). On the whole, he's well-handicapped on his maiden runs but hasn't quite put in anything like those performances in handicaps. However, he's dropped 11lbs from his opening mark three starts back and hasn't had things go his way particularly. The ground was a viable excuse on that occasion before competing in a hot event Haydock over 1m4f. The winner has since stormed to victory off 9lbs higher, and the third has also franked the form to some degree. My selection was 4th, although well-held, but it is plausible the trip was on the testing side and it could have been the case last time out also. They let Ryan Moore dominate and again the race worked out very strongly. The runner-up went close next time, the third has won twice since (last time by 8l), and the 4th also won recently. It's difficult to make ground up on the July Course and he shaped as if the drop back in trip would suit today. The fall in the weights helps and this is a fair bit easier. Blinkers are opted for to hopefully bring out a bit more and I think he has a good chance of bouncing back to form here.

Was well-supported to go off at 4/1 on this occasion so I was expecting a huge run. However, he was lit up by the blinkers but Paul Mulrennan didn't seem overly interested in trying to restrain him as he went off at a furious gallop up front. Never had a chance of seeing it out, especially at Newcastle, and actually showed he was in decent nick by still finishing 4th. The headgear is retained today which I don't have an issue with really and I think they'll have a better idea of what to do today. The sharper track can suit and Paul Hanagan is back on board. The quicker ground is another positive and I think it's generous the handicapper has dropped him a further 3lb to make him eligible for this 0-70 affair. Trip is fine and the 3yo allowance should help as well. Big chance so long as there isn't a repeat of last time.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.15 Brighton - 1pt win Artful Lady @ 12/1 (Bet365) This filly hasn't shown a huge amount in her career so far but she appears capable enough of getting involved if improving enough for an encouraging run last time out at Lingfield on the turf track. Her best run came on the all-weather when beaten a head at Wolverhampton in May and followed that up with a respectable effort at Kempton over a mile. Form dipped next time out but the George Margarson yard haven't been in good form earlier in the year and they seem to be firing out better performances of late. Her 4th at Lingfield could have been bettered on another day as she lacked a clear run and covered plenty of ground horizontally through the race. She ended up finishing well away from the favoured stands rail and the losing margin is exaggerated by the winner (won again off higher next time out). There shouldn't be anything in here lurking quite like that and the stiffer finish should suit. Blinkers are on for the first time and I think she can run well. 5.45 Haydock - 2pts win Venegazzu @ 4/1 (PP) I have my concerns about quite a few of these older horses and feel the weight allowance will really help the 3yos come to the top in this 1m6f handicap. There's only a couple of those in here and I'm on the side of the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Venegazzu. He's relatively unexposed with just 8 runs in his career to date and has won on two occasions. Both came at Wolverhampton but I have little concern about the switch back to turf after he won last time out over this trip. He's 2lbs higher on the turf for that so could be well-in considering his runs on fast turf have not been bad at all. He may well have been beaten 10 1/2l on the July Course two starts back but it's tough coming from the rear there at the best of times, never mind when the field give the leader so much rope. The 5l victor dominated and the 2nd and 3rd have come out and run well since. The trip and ground suit once more and given there's not too much to get excited about within the elder group, I'm quite happy to take this bottom-weight.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.45 Haydock - 1pt win Silvery Moon @ 15/2 (VC) This is a race I wasn't going to get involved in before the removal of Angel Gabrial as although I quite fancied taking Prussian on, I didn't see the price of that one attractive enough with two obvious threats in the Johnston horse and my selection here. Johnston's horses can dip in and out so I'm always keen enough to take them on at short prices and I don't think this one is a good thing for all she's well-in today. It means this race comes fairly quickly and there seemed a clear pace bias on that occasion at Sandown with anything far away struggling to get at all involved. The front four looked like maintaining those positions until a couple weakened but even those that passed them weren't a million miles away. It may have just flattered her and this is no easy contest. I'm interested in Silvery Moon who proved himself adept at this 1m2f trip when winning at Doncaster two starts ago and is only 2lbs higher for that narrow victory. It was a bit of a blanket finish but there were several decent types there and he did well to stay on gamely to get his head in front. He looks the obvious second-choice in here to me as he simply chased a strong pace last time out on his first try over 1m4f. They set it up for the closers and he did fairly well to manage to finish in midfield. That was a hot race and the time was good. The drop back to 1m2f will suit and I think he'll bounce back to the same sort of consistent form he was in prior to the York run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Almuftarris well backed again and beaten a length and a half. Had no run for a little while too. Difficult to say whether his momentum was stopped sufficiently to cost him the race but would have been on their quarters at least. Disappointing. Doubt being held up last helped either cos he's clearly not got a huge turn of foot. Best efforts have come when up there.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 8.50 Kempton - 2pts win Sandusky @ 20/1 (Hills) Mahmood Al-Zarooni's runner makes a lot of appeal to me at a big price as he returns to the conditions he won his first race over back in April last year. He's 1-1 on the all-weather as he hasn't returned since and isn't handicapped out of this in my book. He's been off the track for three months but that is of no issue at all to me considering he seems best fresh. His maiden win came after 6 months off, his other win came after 4 months off and his other best effort came after 8 months off. That was a huge run at Newmarket on his return this year in a hot race and a repeat of that sees him win this for me. 1m3f could be his ideal trip and has had excuses the last twice. Godolphin's horses were all at sea when this one ran at York and it was a hot race he finished midfield in last time out. It worked out very well and was a little stronger than this in my opinion. Freshened up now and returns with ideal conditions. Tiger Hill's progeny go very well on the polytrack and I just think he's capable of outrunning his price this evening.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps No sort of afternoon. Just got to hope Sandusky can spring a shock later tonight. Saturdays tend to be really good or really bad for me so fingers crossed it goes the right way. As mentioned, Almuftarris halved in price and settled much better in the blinkers this time but was probably restrained a little bit too much(!). His best efforts have come when not too far away and the way he finished (stayed on steadily into 3rd) suggests he probably doesn't have the speed to pick them off from the back unless they go very quick. Artful Lady travelled well but got shuffled back when she lacked a clear run and it ended her chance really. Didn't pick up well enough when in the clear to suggest she'd have got anywhere near involved anyway. Silvery Moon ran no sort of race either and the market drift to 13/2 for Venegazzu gave me the impression he wouldn't be running his best race and he finished 4th.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.10 Ascot - 2pts win Diala @ 8/1 (Bet365) William Haggas' filly has disappointed punters of late, having been sent off favourite on her last three starts. However, despite not being able to repay the faith, lots of the reasons why have not been down to her. She's been unlucky since returning in the Guineas and fingers crossed things will go her way this afternoon. Having dropped out at Newmarket in the classic race, she was badly hampered at Warwick, losing her place badly before plugging on again. She had no chance of getting involved and it was a race to put behind her. She again was messed around with at Ascot next time - taking a keen hold and also didn't have much room up the rail initially. She did make some quite nice progress before being hampered slightly and ended up staying on into 4th. She clearly wants a strong gallop to run at and she should get that today in this field where there looks sufficient pace and enough runners. I think there is quite a lot of deadwood in the race and this filly deserves to get her head in front. The hood is on for the first time today on the back of a slightly disappointing run at Newmarket but again, they didn't go much of a gallop and then they quickened from the front (often pays to be handy on the July Course) which didn't suit. I also feel she'll be better on the flatter track here. Still, the race looked a solid one with horses bringing form to the table and the only runner to come out and go again since has franked the form. If she gets some cover and a proper gallop to run at I think the cards will fall into place and she can win this.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.05 Kempton - 2pts win Loving Spirit @ 8/1 (PP) The more battle-hardened runners came to the fore in this race last year so it would be naive to think the 3yos have the call here and I think the Godolphin runner is worth taking on here in a competitive event with this coming fairly quickly after he won his 2nd start to qualify for this London Mile final. James Toller's gelding looks sure to run a big race and I feel there's more to come from him on this surface. His sire's progeny have a good record on the all-weather and in two starts, this runner has shaped with huge promise. It appears to me that he's probably best on the polytrack and has been unfortunate not to record a victory on the surface yet. He first ran here in May on his seasonal return and he suffered bad luck in running as he was hampered when making up good ground on the inner and that was his chance gone really. He finished really well under a hands ride and showed he would have gone extremely close with a clear run. That was only 2lbs lower than what he runs off today and he wasn't even race-fit. Ran okay in two turf starts afterwards but relished the return here last time when beaten a short-head by the reopposing Switzerland. However, he's got a nice swing at the weights to reverse that form and Pat Cosgrave just seemed to ask him a little bit too much as the winner got first run. The surface was running on the slow side at the time which also favoured those on the pace so it was a top effort from my selection. There looks sure to be a decent pace on here and if getting the splits I find it hard to see a bad run from a decent draw.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.00 Haydock - 1pt win Lyric Street @ 7/1 (Bet365) Ed Dunlop's horses are in form and I think a big run is on the cards here with Richard Hughes aboard this gelding for the first time. He was useful for Luca Cumani last year but is at least equally good since joining his new yard and has some rock solid form in the book. He just shaped as if needing the run on his first run of the season at York (fading at the death) before running a big race in the Silver Cup that has worked out very well at the same venue. He finished 3rd over 1m6f behind Mount Athos (beaten 4 1/2l), who is now rated 12lbs higher after hacking up in a Group 3 next time. The runner-up at York was High Jinx - now 11lbs higher having finished 2nd in a Group 2 next time. On that, my selection would have a huge chance, and things didn't go ideally at Ascot last time. I think he wants a true gallop and they didn't go much of a gallop. He raced quite freely without cover and was forced 3-wide throughout which wasn't ideal. He got outpaced as they really quickened it up and I just think a more solid pace over 1m6f will prove ideal. Has a better jockey on board today and I think he has every chance of taking this.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps All three ran well but no winners again. Diala just didn't pick up that quickly but finished 4th. Loving Spirit looked like he was coming with a big run but ended up beaten in 3rd by two 33/1 horses. Argh. Lyric Street couldn't get out of a pocket at a crucial stage of the race when he needed to be quickening from the front but still ran well and might have been placed with a clear run but no better. Disappointing but they continue to run sufficiently well enough to suggest I'm not barking up the wrong trees.