Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Saved at the last by Postscript who runs out a decent winner. Looking at one race tonight a bit later on. Unsure whether there will be a bet but no more than one tonight if there is. +10pts this afternoon.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 8.05 Ayr - 3pts win Forrest Flyer @ 4/1 (VC) Posted this last time out:

3.05 Ayr - 2pts win Forrest Flyer @ 11/1 (PP) I find it a bit surprising that a 4 time c&d winner is such a big price in this event and is off a winning mark. Although the softened ground isn't totally ideal, it isn't bad and he has won under similar conditions in the past. He loves it around here and his most recent effort can safely be ignored as it was over 2m1f here on soft ground. He simply doesn't stay that so that run makes his price very appealing to me here. Prior to that he ran fairly well on his first run back this season and then suffered from a bit of a farcical race when getting outpaced. A more even gallop will suit big time and there are 2 or 3 who like to be in the van so fingers crossed it doesn't turn into a messy affair. Overpriced.

That was a better race than he contests today and the way the race was run over 1m5f didn't suit as he got outpaced before plugging on again without getting near the leaders. Although this is over 2f further, and a trip he's never won at, it should help him from getting done for speed and the lack of an obvious front-runner should mean his stamina isn't overly tested. I'd quite like to see him make the running and take advantage of this and get first run on the field at a track which suits. Graham Lee is a top jockey and I'm hopeful in this fairly weak contest with the favourite perhaps needing a strong pace to run at.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps I love it when a plan comes together. Makes the running as I hoped and although niggled from that position turning in I always fancied him so long as he didn't get badly outpaced (as last time). Lee kept him rolling without going for the whip until necessary and he battled on tenaciously to rally back to the front. Good stuff.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.45 Leicester - 3pts win Night And Dance @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) Taking on the favourite here as this is much harder than the race he won recently on his handicap debut. He might struggle now upped in the weights and in grade. Obviously he's unexposed so he may improve again but I feel he'll have to. Clive Cox's horses are running as well as they've done for quite a long time and that's a big positive going into this race. This filly has put in a couple of disappointing efforts without too many excuses, although there's only been one since moving from Sir Henry Cecil. The ground was possibly too testing at Doncaster and although beaten further than ideal (7l), the race did work out well. She clearly goes on quick ground as seen when narrowly beaten at Sandown last time out. Only went down by a short-head having faltered late on and should hold Fadhaa on that with that one seemingly best at that venue. Still lightly-raced so further progression is possible and she should go very close again today.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Drifted to 6/1 and you know the rest. Fadhaa was bang there so who knows what happened.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.40 Lingfield - 3pts win Westwiththenight @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) William Haggas is enjoying a great time of it at present and he has another fine chance of adding to his amount of winners here at Lingfield today. In a race where plenty have some questions to answer, I think his top-weight can repel all raiders with conditions to suit here. She shaped okay on debut on softish ground over 7f in a race where the winner has turned out to be very smart and just found the trip on the sharp side next time out over a mile. Handled the ground better that day as it was quicker and shaped as if further would suit. Disappointed last time out at Goodwood but the race didn't suit as the ground was on the easy side and they didn't go much pace. The order didn't change much at all and the first three were there throughout. She's had a little break which appears to be no concern and the return to a sound surface will help. Trip is fine I think and Cape Cross' progeny usually prefer better ground. They also go well on the all-weather so I have no issues about the track here and I think she can finish better than some of these other ones with slight stamina concerns and take this.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.50 Ffos Las - 2pts win Shabak Hom @ 18/1 (Bet365) David Evans' runner doesn't get his head in front often but both of his career wins to date have come here and he does seem to go particularly well at this Welsh venue. His overall form figures here read 14214 and showed enough last time out to suggest he can threaten again now he's come down the weights. He is now 12lbs lower than his success in July last year and interestingly both of his wins have come in that month (different years). This could be his time of year and after a pretty poor spell over hurdles he returned to the level when 4th here last time out. The ground was on the soft side which isn't ideal and he did finish to some degree of promise into midfield. The better ground will suit here and Matthew Cosham takes off a useful 3lbs to help further. Only one horse has come out of that race since and they were comfortably held in 3rd but went on to go down by a short-head the other day off the same mark. That boosts the form somewhat and I'm hopeful he can get competitive here.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.30 Kempton - 3pts win Mowhoob @ 4/1 (Boyles) John Gosden sends one runner to Kempton this afternoon and I think he's in with a very good chance of a winner as this colt makes his handicap debut. He's participated in three decent maidens which have worked out nicely and he should be able to win a race off a mark of 72. A mile shouldn't be too much of a concern given his pedigree and I get the impression that the standard to slow track will suit him here as he doesn't appear to have a tremendous amount of speed. He was up with the pace last time out and that should suit if done again. He kicked on 2f out and appeared to have a good chance but was run down by two horses with a furlong to race. Wasn't given a hard time after and the first two are good types I think. The winner beat an 87-rated horse off level weights next time out and the 2nd won a maiden. Both previous maidens also worked out well and I think he's got a big chance off such a mark.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Shabak Hom beaten a head and winner came across. Won't get turned over though I don't think :cry

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Gutting. These things swing on a knife-edge. -8pts if he gets it, -46pts as it is.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.40 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Hoar Frost @ 8/1 (Skybet) The favourite in this is too short for me given the strike rate of the horse and the fact they're yet to win over this far. Arctic Wings can race keenly and I wouldn't read too much into his flattered 3rd of 4 here over the same c&d a few runs ago. One horse who has shaped okay recently is Karen Tutty's Hoar Frost who stayed on over an insufficient 1m2f trip two starts ago and ran okay last time out on soft ground. Considering its wins have all come on a sound surface that may not have been ideal and she still ran well enough. She seems to run many of her better races in the summer and in a weak affair I think she's the value bet.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Meh another 2nd.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.20 Ayr - 2pts win Blues Jazz @ 11/1 (Hills) This horse is an admirably consistent type and although he's appeared to be handicapped out of matters recently (since completing a five-timer last suimmer) but hasn't been far away lately upped to a mile and he might just be able to score off this mark now with conditions in his favour. His form at Ayr is solid with two wins, a 2nd and two sixths (neither beaten too far), and he interestingly has PJ McDonald on board who rides this track especially well. It's the first time for a while a 'proper' jockey is on board and he has an 18% strike rate for Ian Semple. Better ground seems to suit and he's been racing on soft the last twice and whilst running well, this might bring out a bit more. He got his ground when staying on to chase Able Master three starts back over 7f but that winner has since gone in off a 7lb higher mark so he just bumped into one really and shaped as if a mile would be better. Nothing came from off the pace next time out and he pulled last time out when beaten 1 1/2l at Carlisle. He shapes as if in form and I think today's race should suit him ideally. Crucially the Semple yard are finally starting to hit form after a very cold spell and that could bring out the necessary improvement for his runner here.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.10 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Alpine Mysteries @ 7/1 (Skybet) I wanted to monitor the market on this filly before committing to a bet but she's been pretty solid for the John Dunlop yard who aren't have the best of seasons. However, he has had a recent winner and his horses aren't running terribly. The fact she isn't a drifter encourages me and she is the trainer's only runner on the day and doesn't send many to Wolverhampton (11 in last 5 years). She does have a wide draw to contend with here but she's been held-up on all starts to date although I'm sure she could be ridden a bit more handily given the way she's been staying on without threatening. She's made some modest late progress on all of her three starts in maidens without being beaten up and the extended mile here will suit more than the 7f she has been competing over. Although there is speed from her sire, her dam had plenty of stamina (by Montjeu) so this trip should help rather than anything else and she should be getting a stronger ride now handicapped. The maiden last time out has worked out pretty well and she was only 1/2l behind Heliconia two starts back. There's a 2lb swing today and a 1.5pt difference in the market so my filly looks to be the better bet in here and I think she's a big threat to all.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Three of last four have been second. All beaten 1/2l or less. Frustrating. 25/1 winner too. Urgh.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.20 Ayr - 2pts win La Bacouetteuse @ 15/2 (VC) I backed this horse when he won at Musselburgh by a very narrow margin earlier this season and he has conditions here to suit and I'm hopeful that he'll get involved at a decent price today. Since that game win (niggled throughout, stayed on strongly to lead and battled on well) he's run two good races with another narrow victory coming in the latter of those as he drew clear with a subsequent winner off a 4lb higher mark. Upped to a mark of 71 he couldn't compete in a hot 2 mile race at York which was a 0-90 affair so it was always going to be a tough ask and the return to this grade and this trip will suit. His climb up the weights is negated by the 7lb claim of George Chaloner. Interestingly he's 1-1 for the Iain Jardine yard so there's no concern about his booking and he looks a value bet with conditions to suit and potentially nicely weighted. Hopefully they'll go an honest gallop and this looks fairly likely with a few of these likely to go forward and he should be staying on at the death.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.20 Nottingham - 2pts win Finch Flyer @ 20/1 (Bet365) Can't help but feel this horse is overpriced in this apprentice handicap for all he doesn't win very often. His only career win came over this trip on similarly decent ground and he does seem to prefer a sound surface. Crucially that comfortable win came off this mark so he is capable of winning off his current rating and has an okay apprentice on board in Nicole Norblad. Campaigned mainly over the jumps, this horse ran well last time out in that sphere but also ran pretty well on the level when last seen at Warwick. The ground was on the soft side, he got briefly outpaced when they quickened off the turn and then suffered from a lack of a run when trying to make progress. He had to be switched wide and didn't finish too far back in a race that worked out okay. The cheekpieces were back on for his recent good run at Stratford and they seem to help him. They are retained today and he's worth a bet at such a price given conditions appear to be in his favour with this track suiting better than Warwick.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps

5.20 Nottingham - 2pts win Finch Flyer @ 20/1 (Bet365) Can't help but feel this horse is overpriced in this apprentice handicap for all he doesn't win very often. His only career win came over this trip on similarly decent ground and he does seem to prefer a sound surface. Crucially that comfortable win came off this mark so he is capable of winning off his current rating and has an okay apprentice on board in Nicole Norblad. Campaigned mainly over the jumps, this horse ran well last time out in that sphere but also ran pretty well on the level when last seen at Warwick. The ground was on the soft side, he got briefly outpaced when they quickened off the turn and then suffered from a lack of a run when trying to make progress. He had to be switched wide and didn't finish too far back in a race that worked out okay. The cheekpieces were back on for his recent good run at Stratford and they seem to help him. They are retained today and he's worth a bet at such a price given conditions appear to be in his favour with this track suiting better than Warwick.

3rd. Beaten less than a length too :\ Last few runners: 32528233 Just one of those spells. One day one of these 18, 20 to 1 shots will go in with a decent bet on. Got to!

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.55 Beverley - 3pts win Ailsa Craig @ 9/1 (Bet365) The main thing that struck me about this race was the abundance of horses who like to race prominently and that made me think a closer could get this race set up perfectly for it and I like the look of last year's winner Ailsa Craig who is 12lbs lower than that success. She has come down the weights quite a bit of late but hasn't shaped without promise the last twice and with conditions in her favour I think she can bounce back off this lowly mark of 63 today. She relishes a strong gallop which looks likely and the ground is no issue with the trip also in her favour. She hasn't shown much after a 1l second at Newcastle back in April off 10lbs higher but was only beaten 6l at 25/1 two starts back at Doncaster when running up against some stiff rivals in a 0-85 race. The form has been franked and she now runs off 8lbs lower just two starts later in a much easier 0-70 race. The trip of 1m4f just stretched her last time out here but travelled arguably best of all before not finding as much as hoped. She went as if she was in half-decent form though and now she's dropped back to her optimum trip off a further 3lb lower in the weights I think she's going to run a big race. Three of her wins have come in the month of August so this could be her time of year and last year's winning rider Tony Hamilton takes the mount.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.35 Salisbury - 1pt win Dance With Me @ 50/1 (Sportinglife) The price of this horse says I'm barmy but I think 40/1 is exaggerating matters and he's worthy of a small bet with conditions appearing ideal today. I suppose the concern comes from the fact he's been sold out of Andrew Balding's yard and he hasn't been strong in the market for new connections. Jonathan Geake wouldn't be the most fashionable of trainers but he's shown enough on his last two starts to suggest to me he's capable of outrunning his odds. He was very highly tried at 2 - running in two of the very hot conditions races on his first two starts at Newmarket. He could never get involved behind some very talented horses and it was a similar story when weakening quickly at Kempton on his return at 3. It was his first run for quite a while and he ran much better at Windsor two starts back when staying on into 3rd despite taking a keen hold. The winner looks decent, the 4th has bolted up since so it looks a fair race and you can safely ignore his poor, but fairly promising run in another valuable race last time out. He had plenty to find at the weights over 1m2f and lost any hope at the start as he was extremely slowly away and had to go quickly to catch up with the field. After this he tugged his way through the field a bit before actually travelling quite nicely before getting tired thanks to his exertions and the 2f extra trip. Considering he's rated 75 and the first three are subsequently rated in the 100s it wasn't a terrible effort and he did manage to beat a few home - somewhat surprising given how much he had to find, and how much ground he lost at the start. The drop back in trip at a testing track looks spot on for him so long as he gets away on terms and this is a drop in class, and can also run handicapped off his mark. It's a punt but David Probert takes the ride and he is 1-1 for the trainer. I've seen much worse 50/1 hopes so I'll give this one a go.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 4.25 Beverley - 3pts win Tartan Gigha @ 7/1 (Hills) Geoff Harker's runners are in flying form at the minute with 4 winners from 13 runners in the last fortnight and I'm hoping that his top-weight in here is in equally good form as he'll have to be to defy 10-0 in this contest. However, the ground is on his side as he's very much a top of the ground horse and he remains well-handicapped on old form for Mark Johnston. All eight of his wins have come on a sound surface and he's only 4lbs higher than a ready success at Carlisle a few starts back. Even though he's edged back down the weights he hasn't been disgraced of late and this race looks ideal for him. He'd like a good pace to come off and this looks fairly likely given there are two front-runners in here and the trip is quite possibly his optimum. Since winning at Carlisle he ran over 1m6f on softish ground at Musselburgh which can be ignored and then he's bumped into two well-handicapped horses the last twice in races not run to suit. He was beaten 6 1/2l and 7 1/2l respectively but the winner accounted for 3l and 4 1/2l respectively. It was always going to be tough to get much more involved and the drop back in trip/likely stronger pace will really help him now. Those were 0-90 and 0-95 races, too, whereas this is a 0-85 so he's more at home with the company and I think he'll go nicely with conditions to suit.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Another place. Need Ailsa Craig really now.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Pants.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 5.15 Southwell - 3pts win William's Way @ 17/2 (Hills) I find Ian Wood's runner very interesting in this amateur riders event given he ran well at Wolverhampton last time out and the yard's runners are in form. He has a strong record on the fibresand here and also has form for this rider. Therefore he has quite a lot going for him and the tongue-tie and cheekpiece combination is used again having contributed to two recent good efforts. He was staying on at the finish at Wolverhampton last time, shaping as the switch in surface and step up in trip would suit here and soft ground was a valid excuse two starts back (never really gone on it). Won at Wolves the time before that and although he's 4lb higher today, he's won off higher in the past and he's better at Southwell so I think he can win again.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps One final one on a shocking day: 7.05 Kempton - 4pts win Storm King @ 4/1 (Bet365) Jane Chapple-Hyam's runner made a promising debut for the yard at Newmarket last time out when 4th in a maiden after a nine-month absence from the track. Last year he was was George Margarson and competed in two hot maidens which were always going to be a struggle to get competitive in. He wasn't totally disgraced by some good types (especially 2nd time round when about 8l behind Noble Mission). He was only beaten 6 1/4l on his return, shaping as if needing the run, but appears to have improved for his stable switch. On that, a mark of 65 wouldn't be beyond him and this surface shouldn't be an issue. His sire, Shamardal, has a fine record with his progeny on the all-weather and I'm optimistic that this one will take all the beating.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps Thankfully he scoots up to save the day. Missed the earlier big price but a win's a win.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 3.25 Salisbury - 2pts win Shesha Bear @ 13/2 (PP) Posted this before her run here in June:

5.05 Salisbury - 1pt win Shesha Bear @ 10/1 (SJ) I think Jonathan Portman's runner is a bit overpriced here having racked up a hat-trick at Epsom last year and has had excuses on her two efforts so far this campaign. She struggled on very soft ground back at Epsom on his seasonal return, but many horses were well beaten on that surface first time out, yet ran much better since. She was stepped up to 2 miles at Goodwood last time and travelled well for much of the contest before fading inside the final 2f. She simply shaped as a non-stayer and the return to her optimum 1m4f here will help her see the race out. She handles soft ground well and her mark is slipping back down now (5lbs lower than 2 starts ago). That's generous considering she hasn't had her ideal circumstances this season yet, and although this being at Epsom would have increased her chances, she has won elsewhere, and I'm hoping the track won't undo her here. Korngold is too short having only run average races since his last win and remains 6lbs higher than that success, I'm not totally sure Persian Herald will get home well enough on the ground, Achalas hasn't shown enough this season to me to be a solid option. King's Troop is the one I reckon could run well if improving on its first run of the season but although he has a swing with my selection on Epsom form from September, Shesha Bear was comfortably in command that day.

She ran a cracker to go down by a length in second on this occasion and she competes here again off the same mark having not had things go for her since. She could never get involved at Epsom next time out but this was on a day where you had to be handy to get in the picture and the front three simply dominated affairs. I can't forgive her that effort and she ran much better at the same venue last time out. She was given far too much to do by an inexperienced rider, however, and she ought to have gone closer. With James Doyle taking the ride today I think that's a very positive jockey change and the track/trip and soft ground suit. It's going to be difficult giving weight to 3yos at this time of the year but enough of them have some questions to answer whereas I'm pretty sure Jonathan Portman's mare will run her race and I'm hoping it will be enough for a yard going nicely.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.30 Beverley - 2pts win Sinnamara @ 6/1 (Bet365) This filly has plenty of strings attached to her and is not a bet for the faint-hearted but if she consents to race then I think she'll have a big chance of being there at the business end of this weak selling handicap over 1m4f. A lightly-raced type with only six runs under her belt to date, there is room for improvement, and she hasn't really had the chance to show her best yet in my eyes. She made a promising debut over in Ireland over a mile when finishing 6th of 18 but was subsequently off the track for six months prior to finishing 3rd with another decent effort over 1m4f. She managed to run again quite soon after to finish 4th of 8 behind a smart John Oxx horse now rated 91 and clearly she's not up to that sort of performance. Not much has gone right since joining her current yard as she unseated at the 2nd flight on her hurdling debut after a break before running okay without looking anything good at Doncaster over 1m7f next time out off a mark of 65. However, the trip might have stretched her and she probably still needed the run having not got very far on her return over the jumps. She refused to race last time out which is naturally a big concern as horses often get into a habit of this but I have to chance her at 6/1 given the weakness of the race and these conditions should suit. Her dam went well on better ground so it's plausible that this will help too and I've just got everything crossed that she'll bounce out okay.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps 2.40 Newmarket - 2pts win Ellemujie @ 10/1 (Bet365) Posted this last time out:

2.45 Newmarket - 3pts win Ellemujie @ 8/1 (Bet365) Dean Ivory's charge goes well on the whole on the July Course and he certainly doesn't appear out of this off a mark of 83. Although he has won over 1m4f at Kempton, I think a stiff 1m2f on turf suits him best and the quick ground is definitely in his favour as all three of his turf wins have come on ground described as good to firm. He does have to bounce back from a disappointing effort last time out, but there were excuses as he got shuffled back around 3f out after he was involved in some scrimmaging and given not much came from off the pace in the contest, his race was over. He did, however, make up some decent ground into midfield afterwards before feeling the pinch inside the final furlong - unsurprising having used up energy over 1m4f to try get back into the race. He definitely ran better than the bare form suggests and the cheekpieces return today having been off on this occasion. They seem to help him and he returns to ideal conditions today and there looks plenty of pace in the race which will also suit perfectly. Big chance I think.

He ran a cracker on this occasion as he battled on determinedly under pressure to hold every chance for much of the final furlong before just having to give best to a couple of rivals. He wasn't beaten far, though, and should be able to go close again with conditions in his favour once more this afternoon. They didn't really go quick enough to make it as much of a test as I'd hoped and it may be a similar scenario today but at 10/1 he's worth a go with a few non-runners reducing the field. I think the favourite wants a stiffer test so I won't be backing at the price and the second favourite has to prove he's as good on the turf as the all-weather. All in all I think it's worth chancing one at a biggish price and Dean Ivory's runner looks likely to run his race and hopefully that will be enough with Tom Queally taking over in the saddle.

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Re: Rupert's 1m+ Handicaps An afternoon of drifters. Never what you want. Ellemujie didn't, but they let Moore do what he wanted up front. No chance. Sinnamara 6/1 out to 14/1. Shesha Bear 13/2 out to 12/1. You don't need me to tell you what happened.