Flat Racing; Monday 28th May

[Lars]

Keeping this one brief as I have an exam in the afternoon. KUANYAO (19:10) hasn’t won since 2010 when he racked up a six-timer over a period of 11 months. That of course led to his rating shooting up to a career high of 93 at the beginning of the 2011 season. He wasn’t seen to best effect last year but did show some glimpses of promise on occasions, and was often not knocked about or raced out of his favoured position. He’ll be all the better for his seasonal reappearance and back down to 1lb lower than his last winning mark, he could well cause a surprise here. He’s equally effective over either 6f-7f and preferably he likes to lead, although his last victory came when unable to dominate, so it’s not paramount to his chances. That being said, his efforts in 2011 were mainly poor ones, often due to the fact he was hardly ever asked to front-run and the one occasion in which he was able to, he ran the best race of his season, only headed in the last 100 yards and still looking a threat from his revised handicap mark. Two poor efforts followed but he raced in midfield in both of them and in the latter, he was hampered when asked to make his challenge and wasn’t persevered with. That similar comment can be attributed to his seasonal reappearance in a much more competitive race than this. Kuanyao was able to race towards the front, but he looked in need of the outing and Chris Catlin’s lack of effort in the saddle indicated that they were expecting this one to improve for the run. Peter Makin has subsequently had a sprint handicapper winner, getting him off the cold-list alongside a placed effort in a maiden race, so the stable could well be running into some form. Albeit drawn possibly poorly in stall 13 today, I’m expecting much better. Firstly, he’s 3lb lower than that reappearance effort, a run he’ll have probably needed. The booking of Tom Queally is a positive for the yard, having a record of 4/20 and conditions today won’t be a problem, as the selection is more than capable of handling quick ground over 6f. If he’s allowed to stride on, then it could well be he’s difficult to peg back off an extremely workable rating of 83. This is a race he’d need to win to take up entries in bigger handicaps later in the year and although the presence of West Coast Dream in stall 15 could mean they cut each other’s throats in front, a 33/1 shot is hardly going to be bombproof and he’s well worth taking a chance on. He should be closer to the 12’s mark in my book and worthy of a standard sized bet. Bets 19:10 Windsor – Kuanyao; 2pts @ 33/1 Bet365, BetVictor, (bog)

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May 6.20 Carlisle SILLY GILLY 3pts to win @ 20/1 bog (Paddy Power) Class 5 handicap over 1m that opens today's card at Carlisle. Silly Gilly ran a lot of good races last year and eventually won over today's C&D in August off a 3lb lower mark. Ran well fresh more than once and especially last here (second and second again over C&D in this corresponding race on her second race of the year). Should go well at a very big price in a very open race with only another runner that was able to win over C&D (Desert Hunter who won in 2009).

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May 8.50 Carlisle REPRESENT 5pts to win @ 3/1 bog (Boylesports and many more) This Channon-trained filly is more exposed than most of these runners but last time out she showed she is better than ever when third on her comeback on turf after a disappointing losing spell on the AW. She finished a very close 3rd (1L behind the winner) with no luck in the key moment (no room) in the race at Brighton over 7f on good to firm off the same mark of today's race. Yard are in very good form with 11 winners in the last fortnight and the last one has been Samitar who won in impressive style the Irish 1000 Guineas yesterday giving to Mick Channon his first ever Group 1 success.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May 4.15 kemp ducal,cape rock and esprit de midas are closely matched on their hot kempton race and logically they could fight this one again ,ducal and cape rock are 1st and 2nd favs but better value must be esprit de midas who has run since but had an awful race being badly hampered and so finished down the field ....that was on turf so conditions were also different so now returns to favoured a.w and at 11/1 he just looks far too big given his good draw in 6 and could run well esprit de midas 2pts e.w 11/1 betvic

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May 6.40 Windsor SUPAHEART 4pts to win @ 5/1 bog (Betvictor) Ran just twice last year but her 6th of 15 in a maiden at Newbury over 1m on good to firm wasn't a bad performance at all since the winner Shirocco Star (6.75L ahead of Supaheart) made a pleasing comeback 10 days ago finishing 2nd in a Listed over 1m2f at Newbury (beaten a short head) and is now rated 104 and is the 6th favourite for the next weekend's British Oaks at Epsom. The Hughie Morrison-trained filly made a pleasing comeback finishing a close 3rd in a maiden over 1m at Southwell hunging right in the final three furlongs. Two weeks ago she made her seasonal debut on turf (4th career start) and won in very nice style (1.5L ahead of the second but eased down near the finish). She was still keen enough but Darryl Holland rode her very well from the front (she was till hanging towards the far rail a furlong out). She looks a good talented filly with plenty more to come and I expect another big run and hopefully she will be able to settle a bit more and hang a bit less in the final furlong.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May 2.45 kemp GREY SEAL looks an interesting horse in this race .......recorded a 71 lto an got into all sorts of trouble and so is arguably much better .......doesnt have an ideal draw in 10 but if he can get a good position early on then he can unleash his full speed potential hopefully ...... grey seal 5pts win 4/1 will hill

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May 7.10 Windsor - 2pts win Novellen Lad @ 9/1 (Bet365) Willie Musson's horse has conditions spot on for him today and although he's had a break after a spell on the all-weather, he's won fresh before and I expect him to run well today. He loves quick ground and his only previous run here resulted in a good effort. He looked like a winner that day before not picking up quite as well as expected, but that came on unsuitable softer ground and the track effort was pleasing. Kieren Fallon gets on very well with the horse and although he has to win off his highest mark to date, he's probably capable of going just that when he has his ideal conditions. Decent price but things should be run to suit and I'd be surprised if he didn't go close.

[Chaostheorie]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May Kempton 4:15 April Fool 8/1 WilliamHill April Fool won 3 times this year, 2 of it in Kempton. Travelled well in his last race at Chester, finished 4th. Return to AW will suit, the Chestnut Gelding has a higher strike rate on AW than on Turf. He starts from a Mark of 83, but won a turf Handicap in Brighton with 82 in April and finished secon in Wolverhmapton handicap with 79 in March. I think he can runn well off this mark. His last run in Kempton was a Claimer in March, which he won with 10 lengths ahead of the rest. Another interesting aspect of this race is the Pace. April Fool is a genuine front runner, and he could get the unchallenged lead. Another front runner in the race is Peace Seeker, but I consider him as to weak. He never ran in this class and I am not convinced if he can win from his current mark. Lastkingofscotland is another one who used to run at the front, but in his last 4 races he applied other tactics, was always in rear/mid-division. I see a major chance for April Fool if the jockey D.E. Egan crosses the field early and gets the lead.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Kempton 4:15 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Peace Seeker [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 28/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Will be sharper today after beating just one of twelve rivals on return from break. He notched up a hat trick for Anthony Carson last year with the overall form at 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 1st. Peace Seeker was owned by Godolphin but never raced for them. He is by Oasis Dream out of Mina so there will be more to come from him at this level. The three wins was over 6f (twice) and 5f but the 7f today will not be a problem. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD][h=1]Tip Detail[/h][/TD] [TD=align: right] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Kempton 4:45 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Climxfortackle [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 28/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Showed up well in a couple of runs last month. Best effort came three runs ago when 3rd of 6 by 1 length. I think she will give her best today with jockey Nicky Mackay in the saddle. They have teamed up before for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th. Trainer Derek Shaw is in good form with 2 wins from his last 6. Lifetime form of the selection has only 1 win from 24 runs but that is mostly on Turf (runs for 1 second and 2 thirds). Her All-Weather form has 9 runs for 1 win, 1 second, and 2 thirds. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May

Razorbill 4.00 Leicester. 1 point win. Apparently been working well at home and should improve bundles from debut last season. The trip's fine, and although they ground may be a little faster than ideal, it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Can improve the most and win this. 5/1 William Hill (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May KATA ROCK 5.00 Leicester. 0.5 points each way. Needs to improve quite a bit, but now goes handicapping and I think the drop to 7f and the faster ground will be much more suitable. Competitive race, but we're an attractive price when thinking how much it's possible we'll improve for today's make up. 28/1 Victor Chandler BOG

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 28th May Windsor 840 - Anton Dolin 9/2 Bet365 I think this horse should have a great chance based on his Topspeed figures on quicker ground. He finished off last year in great form, and ran as well as can be expected on his comeback LTO given the underfoot conditions. Windsor is a fairly sharp track which his running style should suit and although Im not sure what to expect from the draw, I would be a little disappointed if he didnt go close. Of the other runners The Cayterers takes my eye at an ok price based on his 3rd at this track over slightly shorter. He stayed on that day suggesting this trip could suit and he looks like he could be well handicapped. I prefer to see the horses I pick have a run, so I will pass this time.