3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Wooohooo my first lay win on the paper test!! Oi you. Less of the wooohooo'ing. If you are going to purloin my thread to post your tips, can we please have the rationale that goes with the tips?:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Hahaha sorry 3 legs,, just a bit excited there haha!! Looking forward to seeing how u get on with the next one!! Can u give us the reason for choosing it again, was good info for last race!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Hahaha sorry 3 legs' date=', just a bit excited there haha!! Looking forward to seeing how u get on with the next one!! Can u give us the reason for choosing it again, was good info for last race!![/quote'] Can we please have the rationale that goes with your last tip?:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Basically I looked at the card and the odds!! Call to battles form was not the greatest and he was 9/4 fav on betting forcast, looked at the other form of the rest and there prices and noticed form was about the same and would give call of battle more than enough problems in the race!! Maybe it was lucky but I must have done something right!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Clonmel 6:40 Enter the Indian's odds are lower that I would expect and should be layed. It's an egg and spoon race. The form of the other runners is appalling - just like Enter the Indian's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 :) - U don't need The Jock riding the selection like that!! Was like Pat Eddery with the money down!!! Happy days - well done. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System And Enter The Indian comes second at 15/8. That's a 7/4 and a 15/8 selection which went down today - courtesy of the Bleedin' Obvious laying system. That's it for today. Lets see what tomorrow brings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Well done mate,, great day!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skips1974 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Nice one mate great start I watched enter the Indian race :loon Keep em coming :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Coo wee. What a lot of racing there is today. Me system has found 5 possible races today. Two in particular stand out where someone is definitely extracting the urine - big time. Look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls! I am seriously having a look-see at one of the later races at Lingfield, a late race at Ascot and 3 in Ireland where I believe shenanigans are afoot. Will keep you informed as things develop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Nice one 3 legs!! Good to see what races you have!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Nice one 3 legs, look forward to seeing your selections!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Nice one 3 legs' date=' look forward to seeing your selections!![/quote'] I also can't wait to see what my selections will be for today. It's getting exciting isn't it?:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Although I don't like trading, I have also spotted a decent trading opportunity for today in one of the later Market Rasen races. The nag looks like a hold up horse to me - which will suite the jockey's riding style and the course. The final bend at Rasen is down hill. Then, there's a double-dip in the long straight followed by climb to the finish. It often throws up some odd finishes and a race outcome can change dramatically in the last couple of furlongs because the horses can get caught out easily. I expect the horse to go off at fairly short odds, then drift in running and then fall again towards the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System On a couple of occasions on this thread, I have stated that I don't like trading. I do it, on occasions, but not that often. Here's the rationale: No matter how good a system is, if you don't get value on a bet, long-term, you WILL lose. When trading, it is necessary to obtain value on both the back and lay sides of the bet or to get sufficient positive value on one side of the trade to more than offset the negative value obtained on the other side. To get value on one bet on a horse isn't easy. To get value on two bets on the same horse in the same race is difficult, even at best. Yup, there are traders out there who make a good living, but, they are few and far between. There's another reason for not trading. Suppose you get matched on a bet and, before you get the chance to trade out, the technology fails. Now what? I've known traders lose thousands on this problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Well, the bad news is that now the punters have started to get properly stuck into the markets, the Lingfield race is a no go as is the race that I was gonna trade at Market Rasen as is one of the Irish races. We are now left with 3 potential races: One at Ascot and two in Ireland. They are all evening races. Oh buggery bollocks. (Am I allowed to say that?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Anther Irish race selection has bitten the dust. That leaves us with a selection in a late race at Ascot and one in an even later Irish race. Let's hope that they don't bite the dust too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Why have you choosen not to take any other races? Just wondering ur reason? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Why have you choosen not to take any other races? Just wondering ur reason? Because I use the following set of rules, as identified in the first post on this thread: I look at the odds of the favourite and then at its form and then at the form of the other horses. I then ask myself one question: Is it reasonable that this horse is favourite? If the answer is ‘Yes’ – it’s a no bet. If the answer is ‘Maybe’ – it’s a no bet. If the answer is ‘No Way On God’s Earth Should That Horse Be Favourite’ – I wade in with me size 9 boots and lay the little sucker. I don’t spend forever lookin’ at the form. I just have a quick look-see. And when I say quick, I mean VERY quick. I tend not to look at Handicaps but then, a favourite in a handicap says to me ‘For God’s sake, 3 Legs, what are you waiting for – LAY ME’. So, I do. Very often, these horses steam like gud uns. Then, just before the off, they will tick up ever so slightly. When they do this, I change me size 9 boots and puts on me size 12’s and really get stuck in. My theory is that the last-minute slight tick upwards is the smart money laying it. None of the races that I've looked at today fulfilled the above criteria. If you think that there have been races that did - please tell me which ones and I'll have a look and give an opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Ascot 7:45 Thunderball isn’t top rated and isn’t any better than a couple of others I could mention. At 2/1 there’s a bit of value in laying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Although I don't like trading' date=' I have also spotted a decent trading opportunity for today in one of the later Market Rasen races. The nag looks like a hold up horse to me - which will suite the jockey's riding style and the course. The final bend at Rasen is down hill. Then, there's a double-dip in the long straight followed by climb to the finish. It often throws up some odd finishes and a race outcome can change dramatically in the last couple of furlongs because the horses can get caught out easily. I expect the horse to go off at fairly short odds, then drift in running and then fall again towards the end.[/quote'] Why didn't you name the horse in the post? What use is it to anybody? I agree a thread like this may be of help to someone, but in my opinion it's a load of nonsense. You never name the horse, you rant about races without ever mentioning a horse, you seem to have no staking plan in place along with profit/loss and yield structures. And the one horse i see you mentioned, won. I can't see why you can't name the horse's you intend to lay in the morning, it's not like you have much of an effect on the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Damn - my first loser.:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Downpatrick 8:35 Dysart Dancer came 6th in its one and only start. The others in the race may not be up to much but neither is this horse. It is a highly speculative favourite and, at evens, has to be a value lay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Downpatrick 8:35 Dysart Dancer came 6th in its one and only start. The others in the race may not be up to much but neither is this horse. It is a highly speculative favourite and' date= at evens, has to be a value lay. I would never lay Willie Mullins in an Irish Bumper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Damn won @ 8/11.:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I would never lay Willie Mullins in an Irish Bumper. Aidymac Willie Mullins, before today, had a SR of 31% in National Hunt Flat Races over the past 5 seasons. Backing his horses to win in such races, however, produces a loss since they often start at low odds. The stats are on Racing Post to prove it. Laying his horses in such races is a reasonable option since they are often over bet because of his record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Aidymac Willie Mullins, before today, had a SR of 31% in National Hunt Flat Races over the past 5 seasons. Backing his horses to win in such races, however, produces a loss since they often start at low odds. The stats are on Racing Post to prove it. Laying his horses in such races is a reasonable option since they are often over bet because of his record. But you layed it @ Evens, and it went off at an SP of 1.67... So in effect you got poor value as you backed the horse @ 50% higher than the SP... That would be the same as laying a 6/1 shot @ 9/1.. The stat you provided was at SP, and you didn't lay at SP. Correct me if i am wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Why didn't you name the horse in the post? What use is it to anybody? I agree a thread like this may be of help to someone, but in my opinion it's a load of nonsense. You never name the horse, you rant about races without ever mentioning a horse, you seem to have no staking plan in place along with profit/loss and yield structures. And the one horse i see you mentioned, won. I can't see why you can't name the horse's you intend to lay in the morning, it's not like you have much of an effect on the market. Aidymac You are right. I don't have a staking plan or a p/l or a yield structure. Why? I'm not testing the system. I went live with it a long time ago. There is no one on this forum that posts lay bets. There is no one on this forum who is concentrating on finding value. This thread is all about both. The rationale behind the selections is what's important, not the selections. That way, readers are then free to go off and develop their own variation on this theme. There is a valid reason why I don't mention selections until the off but I'd prefer not to say. You obviously don't appreciate this thread. So be it and please feel tree not to read it. In fact, you won't need to avoid it because I will not be writing another post again. I have better things to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System But you layed it @ Evens' date=' and it went off at an SP of 1.67... So in effect you got poor value as you backed the horse @ 50% higher than the SP... That would be the same as laying a 6/1 shot @ 9/1.. The stat you provided was at SP, and you didn't lay at SP. Correct me if i am wrong.[/quote'] Aidymacs If you read this thread, it states quite clearly that horses should be layed as soon after the off as possible. As such, the horse wouldn't have been layed at evens. It would have been layed considerably below. Is there anything else that you wish to vent your spleen at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Aidymac You are right. I don't have a staking plan or a p/l or a yield structure. Why? I'm not testing the system. I went live with it a long time ago. There is no one on this forum that posts lay bets. There is no one on this forum who is concentrating on finding value. This thread is all about both. The rationale behind the selections is what's important, not the selections. That way, readers are then free to go off and develop their own variation on this theme. There is a valid reason why I don't mention selections until the off but I'd prefer not to say. You obviously don't appreciate this thread. So be it and please feel tree not to read it. In fact, you won't need to avoid it because I will not be writing another post again. I have better things to do. I put forward a couple of valid questions. I was asking because the thread is a "tad" interesting. 2 losers and you jump ship? Ok then. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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