3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Yesterday, I was castigated by those who control this forum for continually opening up new threads whenever I spot a horse that looks well over bet. Quite right too. However, I’m still fairly new to this forum and have apologised for my misdemeanours. I have therefore decided to open up a single thread in which I intend to post future selections. The rules are simple. If the horse looks over bet, it probably is and should be layed. That’s why I call this the Bleedin’ Obvious System. Just so we have everything in one place, here’s my past selections: 1 May – Ballinrobe 6:55 Our Girl Lucy – went off 7/2 fav. Came 2nd. Here’s my original post: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/129618-Our-Girl-Lucy 5 May – Doncaster 7:25 Pearl Ice – went off 3/1 fav. Came 13th. Here’s my original post:http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/129759-Doncaster-7-25 8 May – Southwell 3:45 Only Ten Per Cent – went off 6/4 fav. Came 6th. Here’s my original post: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/129828-15-45-Southwell 8 May -Fakenham 17:00 Traded Bollin Judith. Here's my original post: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/129831-Fakenham-17-00 There’s usually a selection ‘every now and then’ so don’t expect me to post that often. Also, the posts are often very late – sometimes seconds before the off. This is unavoidable (but please don’t ask why ‘cos I ain’t for tellin’). All of the selections will be Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System 3 legs, I'll be looking at this very closely, look forward to seeing How u get on!! Good luck mate!:ok On my way to 50 posts lol!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I find your posts very interesting and would have considered your lays had I seen them before the off. Its a shame some members shoot you down for opening new threads , I wouldn't have read them otherwise. I suppose rules are rules. I don't read many personal threads on here , but I'll have a look now and then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Just so you all know where I'm coming from..... I'm an incredibly well-disciplined punter. I create rules and stick to them religiously. However, it's incredibly boring at times but I mustn't complain I suppose. A few years ago, I started to get frustrated because there were times when I 'just knew' that a certain horse would win if I backed it or would lose if I layed it. However, I couldn't have a punt because it didn't fulfil my criteria. In the end, I created a small bank for such bets. I have to admit, I was totally reckless with it. Sometimes, I put half the bank on a single horse. On one occasion, I put the whole of the bank on a horse. You know what? I've never lost the bank. In fact, it produces more profit than my main systems, percentage-wise. What's more, I started to enjoy my betting. I think that there's a lot to be said for this approach. When I realised that, in the Bleedin' Obvious system, I had a nice little earner, I split the bank into two. I use one of them for the Bleedin' Obvious system and the other for my gut feel and instinct betting. I'm a lot more disciplined with the Bleedin' Obvious system these days but it's still run with the devil on my gut feel and instinct betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I wish you well, but seconds before the off? May as well not share the selections then as you're hardly giving people a chance to benefit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 I wish you well' date=' but seconds before the off? May as well not share the selections then as you're hardly giving people a chance to benefit.[/quote'] But it would give an insight to how to make it pay Jay - we have very few(if any) layers that post on here and I think it will create alot of interest regardless of the timings of the posts... :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I wish you well' date=' but seconds before the off? May as well not share the selections then as you're hardly giving people a chance to benefit.[/quote'] Jay Shame on you for that post:$ Believe me, if I could post any earlier, I would. However, that said, there's always the opportunity to bet in-running, though limited I must admit. The system is only loosely based on rules and is fairly flexible as to what constitutes a bleedin' obvious lay. Also, there's newbies coming to this 'ere forum all the time and looking for help and guidance. The main point of this thread is to demonstrate that the use of a little common sense can pay dividends and to provide examples of what I think is a bleedin' obvious lay and why I think it so. In this way, people can use the principles to develop their own variation on this theme. However, if you feel that this thread is inappropriate, is a waste of my time and others' time, I will cease posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GILLY57 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I think the thread is appropriate; whilst the selections might come up very late and deny people the opportunity to participate directly it gives the reader an idea how to develop their own systems - no bad thing so keep posting mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I defo think it's a good thread 3 legs,, I'm a newbie as you know and trying to find my feet at this horse racing world, so carry on mate!! It's really worthwhile doing!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Today has been dire. The only race of interest is the 8:00 at Kempton. According to the market, there's only 3 in it. I reckon that the race is wide open and none can be discounted. Might just be able to squeeze something out of it. If so, will post nearer the off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Today has been dire. The only race of interest is the 8:00 at Kempton. According to the market, there's only 3 in it. I reckon that the race is wide open and none can be discounted. Might just be able to squeeze something out of it. If so, will post nearer the off. I will be interested to see what you pick as I have two that I fancy in that race! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I will be interested to see what you pick as I have two that I fancy in that race! Only 2? I fancy the lot!! - that's what's causing me issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Looks like the market is undecided on the front 3 - so am I - no bet. Sorry guys, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Only 2? I fancy the lot!! - that's what's causing me issues. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I wanted to lay Larwood but I figured 15/8 was the value lay. It was a tad high at 2/1. It was upped 12lbs recently and I figured that it may not be that far in front of the handicapper but couldn't be sure. So, when in doubt, I stay out 'cos it's expensive when you get it wrong layin'. Maybe tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System For the benefit of newbies and backers, here's the rationale behind my no bet on the 8:00 at Kempton. I initially figured that the race was open and that the market would start to reflect that in the last 10 mins of betting. It looked like I was wrong 'cos the market was only interested in the top 3 and they were yo-yo-ing for market prominence. So, I figured that the top 3 would be in at the death. That meant that they each had a theoretical 2/1 chance of winning. That meant that I had to lay at 2/1, it would have been a negative value lay. Larwood came in at the last minute to 2/1. Had it come in to 15/8 then I'd have layed because it would have been value. At 2/1 I stay out. As things turned out, one of the top 3 won (not Larwood) and the minor places were filled by an 8/1 and a 14/1 shot. Hope this helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System You're deserve to be shot for even using the word castigated on this forum ;) Thanks for providing the above market analysis. All I meant was that it's not really in the PL spirit to post up a minute before the off, as we're meant to be helping one another, but seeing as you have posted why you stayed away from that race I guess you are helping others to learn and that's fine by me. Welcome to PL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Thanks for letting us know why you never picked that bet!! Interesting to know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I have to be honest, I hadn't had a bet all day yesterday and the Kempton race was my last chance. I was getting a tad frustrated. I really struggled to find the right bet in the race but the market defeated me!! At least I had the good sense to stay out. Larwood was the lay bet but not at 2/1. I'm still struggling to think what a better course of action was. Maybe I found it by staying out. Maybe I didn't. Hey ho! BTW - just in case it isn't obvious yet. I am totally useless at finding winners/losers. But, I like to think that I'm OK at spotting value and this is what the game's about. Getting the winning bets at prices that more than offsets the losers and leaving a profit. I couldn't care less whether my selections win, lose or draw because, long-term, if I get value, I will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System You're deserve to be shot for even using the word castigated on this forum ;) Thanks for providing the above market analysis. All I meant was that it's not really in the PL spirit to post up a minute before the off, as we're meant to be helping one another, but seeing as you have posted why you stayed away from that race I guess you are helping others to learn and that's fine by me. Welcome to PL! I said castigated not CASTRATED!:sad Joking aside, the problem is that I concentrate on the last minute betting 'cos it speaks volumes if you let it. Before taking a horse on, I like to know how the other may fare. The last minute betting provides clues. Sometimes, it's pretty obvious, way before the off, what may be going down. Mostly, it ain't. Larwood, yesterday, was a classic. Odds tumble before the off - but to zero value. Even had it gone to 15/8, the value was slim. I just knew that a couple of horses out of the top 3 would be there or there abouts and I said that in an earlier post. Knowing it and being able to take advantage by getting value, however, ain't the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System If you layed the top three in the betting yesterday then, you still would have made a profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System If you layed the top three in the betting yesterday then' date=' you still would have made a profit?[/quote'] No. The winner was 3/1 (4.4 bf) so would have lost 1.4pts. Had I backed the top 3, then, yes, I would have made a profit of 1.4pts (before commission). The problem here is that the race, to me, looked wide-open and wasn't convinced that any of the top 3 would win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System May have a couple of LAY tips for today: 2:35 Chester and 6:40 Clonmel. Will post later if they come to fruition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System On my paperless I have model pupil to lay 2.35 Chester, see how bad that goes!! Hopefully I have same as you 3 legs!! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Model pupil at bf 6.4 is too high for my liking. My top is 6.0. That will not be my tip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System I wrote wrong horse down haha,, call to battle I meant haha, sorry guys!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Given that A P O’Brien saddled both Guinea’s winners at the weekend, I reckon the betting public have pushed David Livingston too low. If I were backing it, I’d want about 3/1 so at 13/8, it has to be a value lay. There’s some decent opposition and some decent jocks to give David Livingstone plenty to think about. If it stays below 2/1, I’ll be in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allanmac83 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Wooohooo my first lay win on the paper test!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System If I were the jockey's father, I'd shoot my son for riding David Livingston like that. What a plonka. Never gave the horse a prayer of winning. Still, another one in the bag! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs and a wheel Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System Now let's see if we can get a double - on to Clonmel tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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