flat racing saturday 21st april

[beaker1]

my thoughts and bets for 3-45 @ newbury 3:45 Newbury – Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Spring Mile The most startling fact surrounding the Spring Cup is that each of the last 10 renewals has been won by a 4yo or 5yo, or at least they had until the 6yo Light From Mars spoiled the party last year. Therefore, despite last year’s blip the sensible call has to be to oppose Mull Of Killough, Vainglory, Global Village and Fantasy Gladiator. In actual fact it is the 4yos that have the best record winning 7 of those previous 10 renewals with 5yos scooping the other 3, which I shall bear in mind when drawing up the final shortlist. Unsurprisingly, the draw has also had a major part to play in past renewals of this race as each of the last 10 winners came from a double figure draw. With that in mind I would also look to be against Take It To The Max (3), Highland Knight (4), Capaill Liath (9), Mont Ras (2), captain Bertie (7) and The Titchborne (6). Incidentally, 6 of those 10 winners came from stalls 10 to 14, suggesting that the middle of the track is the place to be, and if that trend is to be believed, that implies that Pintura (10), Karaka Jack (11), Sinfonico (12), Emilio Largo (13) and Maverik (14) could be ideally placed. The Spring Cup has been a bit of a graveyard for backers of the ‘jolly’. There has only been one winning favourite in the last 11 runnings; Sir Michael Stoute’s Lang Shining, and even then he was sent off the 9/2 joint favourite. The remaining 10 winners had all started with a double figure SP. Markets for races such as this often flip-flop in the build up to the off but at the time of writing Captain Bertie currently heads the betting at around the 11/2 mark with Fury at 8/1 and Mull Of Killough at 9/1. Interestingly, the first and last of this trio have already been discounted. These are the 3 strongest trends surrounding this race but there are a few others to bear in mind. 7 of the last 11 winners had already raced that year and therefore a degree of caution does need to be shown around the seasonal debutants Labarinto, Emilio Largo, Vainglory, Dubawi Sound, Heddwyn and Cruiser. Additionally, 6 of the last 11 winners achieved a top 4 finish on their most recent start and of those that have already run this season 11 horses actually match this trend. As the past 10 winners have won the Spring Cup off a variety of weights and ratings there is little to be learned from this, so the final trend to consider is which races have provided the most winners. Whilst you would automatically assume that the Lincoln has proved the best guide, in fact there are 2 other races which have both supplied two recent winners. Mastermind, El Coto and Light From Mars had finished 4th,17th and 8th respectively in the Lincoln before improving to win here, so let’s have a look at this year’s contest. Of course, the race was won impressively by Brae Hill who doesn’t line up here but Mull of Killough (2nd), Fury (3rd) and Edinburgh Knight (4th) all do. Another race that has supplied two recent winners from Doncaster is the Spring Mile as The Judge and Extraterrestrial had finished 18th and 2ndrespectively prior to winning here. Captain Bertie was perhaps an unfortunate 4th in this year’s contest. Wolverhampton’s Lincoln Trail is another race to have supplied two recent winners; Forgery and Extraterrestrial who had finished 4th and 7th respectively. This year’s renewal went the way of Nazreef who has won again since at Kempton. Pintura was 9th and The Titchborne 13th. Shortlist Nazreef Pintura Emilio Largo George Guru Conclusion If memory serves NAZREEF was the selection for this race last year when he ran well to finish 5th, beaten less than 2L by the winner. The ground was pretty quick last year which I don’t think would have played into his hands and the conditions tomorrow may be much more to his liking as long as it isn’t too soft. Once again he has had a good spring, winning the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton and a competitive little contest at Kempton a fortnight ago which has seen his AW rating increase to 103. So, although you cannot completely rely on AW and turf form matching up, the fact that he races on Saturday off 87 does suggest that he is a step ahead of the handicapper if he can prove as effective on turf. He seems to be drawn well and Darryll Holland does seem to get on well with the horse having won on him twice. 18/1 isn’t a bad price taking all of that into account. Pintura actually finished runner-up in this race last season off a 5lb lower mark than he does tomorrow. However, although he does go on any ground I think he is suited to a little bit of cut judged on his past performances so he does look overpriced at 28/1. He hasn’t run as badly as his recent form figures suggest and as he is 4lb lower now and has Jamie Spencer booked to ride, connections are seemingly hopeful of a better performance. Emilio Largo progressed steadily last season but seemed to improve for each run. He makes his seasonal reappearance off a mark 6lb higher than when winning a soft ground handicap at Sandown but there is every chance that he will continue improving as a 4yo and it is possible that he has a big handicap in him, if not here, later in the season. Finally, George Guru just hasn’t stopped improving after a modest introduction at Kempton last year. He is a bit of a gamble having never raced on turf before but I see no reason why he shouldn’t and he could prove the dark horse of the race as he gets on so well with apprentice Mark Coumbe whose 5lb claim could be invaluable.

[Aidymac]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april *Pintura - Newbury 3:45* Was 2nd in this corresponding race last year. Laura Pike rode it last year, so interesting that they got Spencer to ride it this time round, a good jockey booking (although i am not a big fan of his). That was it's only ever run at Newbury too. Simcock is in great form with 3 winners from his last 10 runners and when Spencer rides for him, they have won 3 of their last 7. A chance in a hugely competitive field. *0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG*

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april Dettori has some nice looking rides at Newbury. He only has 2 winners on the score sheet but is sure to hit form VERY soon. [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]16:55 Fri 20th Apr [/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m 2f 6y[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD] Gold Rally (USA) [/TD] [TD] M Al Zarooni [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 13:30 Sat 21st Apr [/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD] Ibtahaj [/TD] [TD] Saeed bin Suroor [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 14:00 Sat 21st Apr [/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m 4f 5y[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD] Modun (IRE) [/TD] [TD] Saeed bin Suroor [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 16:20 Sat 21st Apr [/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m 3f 5y[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD] Bayan (IRE) [/TD] [TD] B J Meehan [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 17:25 Sat 21st Apr [/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m 2f 6y[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD] Reachforthebucks [/TD] [TD] Jane Chapple-Hyam[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 6.15 WOLVERHAMPTON MEMPHIS MAN 16-1 2pt ew 13 go to post for this Amateur Riders' Class 6 Handicap.It's as poor as race as you can get and anything can happen in these races.A really poor start last time put paid to its chances under irish Jockey P BEGGY,but it ran very well in its penultimate start over C&D here on the 15th March when finishing just behind Captain Dimitrios .That was a good performence considering Captain Dimitrios has won 3 times since,and ran a good 2nd in a CLASS 3handicap earlier this month.In fact there have been 4 wins and 4 places from that race including POWERPIERE winning over C&D the other day. The difference from those two races is MEMPHIS MAN is well drawn in a high stall and can sit handy for the whole race on its own terms and strike close home,in fact this is its best draw over C&D since its last victory here..MEMPHIS MAN's last win came over C&D off a similar mark in November of last year,and has 11 career wins over this trip,and 2 career wins over C&D,although that may not be spectacular is more than capable of winning this race.Through a form line through the 2nd favourite WELCOME APPROACH it is well matched with the favourite INDIAN arrow and has a chance off these terms.Also it has a fantastic versus record against the 3rd favourite LOYAL ROYAL(6-1) and should go very close here imo under it's amatuer rider,the wonderfuly named F Windsor Clive. :unsure

[Haystacks]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april

Dettori has some nice looking rides at Newbury. He only has 2 winners on the score sheet but is sure to hit form VERY soon. [TABLE] [TR] [TD]16:55 Fri 20th Apr[/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m 2f 6y[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD] Gold Rally (USA) [/TD] [TD] M Al Zarooni [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 13:30 Sat 21st Apr[/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD] Ibtahaj [/TD] [TD] Saeed bin Suroor [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 14:00 Sat 21st Apr[/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m 4f 5y[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD] Modun (IRE) [/TD] [TD] Saeed bin Suroor [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 16:20 Sat 21st Apr[/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m 3f 5y[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD] Bayan (IRE) [/TD] [TD] B J Meehan [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 17:25 Sat 21st Apr[/TD] [TD]Newbury[/TD] [TD]1m 2f 6y[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD] Reachforthebucks [/TD] [TD] Jane Chapple-Hyam[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Frankie is struggling for winners largely because Godolphin just isn't firing yet. Al Zarooni has had a couple of maiden winners (including the very promising Mariner's Cross) but also several disappointments in the better races such as Pimpernel, Mighty Ambition, Minidress, Parlour Games and Pemprey, whereas Suroor only has a single winner (an all-weather handicap). It's hard to be too enthusiastic about any of the Godolphin runners until they start to show more consistent form.

[jayalexander]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april Dubawi Sound returns to the stomping ground where he hacked up at 50/1 first time out, in a Newbury maiden at last year's meeting. He's the only true CD winner in the field, although many others are either course or distance winners. Varian is in great form at the moment, too.

[Stevet1859]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 3:45 Newbury: Heddwyn 1pt win 25/1 Bet365 & The Tichborne 1pt win Betfair SP It could be worth taking a flyer on Heddwyn. He is drawn high and has the ability to go well fresh and can handle the soft conditions. There is not a lot of form to go on as this five year old has only raced five times. He won his maiden the first time he saw the race track and then last season was only just touched off over a mile and two at Kempton, the ability to get that extra yardage could be handy today. Heddwyn's stand out piece of form is his third to Green Destiny and Agony And Esctasy at Leicester in October 2010; both of those went on to better things. Heddwyn has presumably had his problems and its a risk he may not be over them, however his first run may be the time to catch him. At even bigger odds The Tichborne could go well if he could reproduce his run in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last year. That was on a good to soft surface and this is the first time he has encontered some give underfoot since. If The Tichborne gets away in the lead here, he may take some pulling back on this going. Roger Teal has been in very good form recently and The Tichbourne is a couple of pounds lower than at the Berkshire venue last year.

[robertob]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 2.00 Newbury: Bridge Of Gold @ 8/1 Bet365 I have the feeling that this race is much more open than the betting market suggest. Sure, Arctic Cosmos couldn't have been more impressive at his reappearance over a trip that is probably too sharp lto. He is the class act in this field, no doubt, though he never raced on softish ground and that must be a concern tomorrow. If he handles the ground, fine, then he will be hard to beat, but that is far from certain in my mind. Second favourite Harris Tweed will relish the ground however, and looks the main danger of Arctic Cosmos, but I think he's not a world beater and is vulnerably anyway. For me the most interesting horse here is Bridge Of Gold, who finished a close 2nd last year in this race. It wasn't the strongest renewal, that's for sure, but he ran a big race nonetheless. He didn't run again since and that is a concern indeed, though he did mostly very well fresh and I have no doubt that trainer Magnusson has him fit for the race. The trainer holds Bridge Of Gold in high regard, he even said it's the best horse he's training and it looks to me as well as if he really tries to find the right races for the horse. Apart of that Bridge Of Gold has only one flat win so far on his tally, though he's still very lightly raced for a six year old and won his debut here at Newbury on softish ground. He also ran well in a good race at France on softish ground, so that should be an indication that he'll have absolutely no problem with the ground tomorrow. I think it's still possible that he didn't show his full potential yet and could still improve, even if it sounds a bit odd in contrast to his age, but he had only five starts on turf yet and was Group 3 placed at his last start. It's also noteworthy that trainer Magnusson did very well at Newbury in the past and the trainer/jockey combo of Magnusson/Hanagan enjoys a 25% strikerate. All in all I think 8/1 is too high for his chances in this race. 3.50 Thirsk: Justonefortheroad @ 4/1 Bet365 Loads speaks in favour of Justonefortheroad tomorrow. The way he won lto was breathtaking. He had a bad start, was well off the pace, was early under pressure and looked far from a horse with a winning chance for a long way out in the race but eventually gained loads of ground in the home straight, came then even back on the bridle and won easily at the end. A massive performance which is only possible if a horse is in fantastic form. He won't mind the ground conditions tomorrow as he won on firm- but also on soft ground and won also already here at Thirsk. A solid pace looks on the cards with Xilerator in the field who won in impressive fashion on softish ground lto from the front and who is another interesting contender. Rodrigo De Torres likes to race prominently too. A good pace will play Justonefortheroad very much into the hands I think however. A proper test of stamina looks sure enough with the ground conditions and a (hopefully) good pace and shouldn't cause him problems as he's as good over 7f than over 1m. It's not an easy race though, the Godolphin runner will run almost certainly a big race, Xilerator has super form to offer and the highest rated horse in the field, Smarty Socks, has winning claims as well. But it's Justonefortheroad who makes the most appeal at his current price and with the conditions in his favour and his obviously excellent form.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april :loon I have came up with the same two as steve. 3.45 NEWBURY~.25 E/W BF WIN 110 P ?? THE TICHBOURNE~ An outsider with a squeak. Ran really well at Ascot last year, a mile is the horses best trip imo and i think the ground will suit, trainers horse are all running well could this be the horse to get me in to the PL 100/1 club..... just maybe! 3.45 NEWBURY~ 1PT E/W HEDDWYN 20/1 BETFRED~ Should have been on this last night at 25's being well backed this morning hope its not pricewise! Very lightly race ran over to far lto, Ran a cracker on only try at a mile will love the soft ground and i think trainer will have it as fit as a fiddle for first run back and imo is a major player here. Also have a very small bet on Pintura at 55 on BF anti-post but the price has busted on that horse now if i could have got 25's it would have been a e/w wager in this thread. Owner won the race last year and this horse was 2nd dropped 4lb from last run but still higher than last year but should run a very big race.

[cpo]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 3.45 Newbury George Guru 1pt EW 28/1 Skybet I quite like this one today. I think he is being underestimated in this race and to me he looks a massive price at 28/1. He only started racing in August last year and is a 5 year old but he has quickly progressed into a very smart handicapper, albeit on the all weather. Since starting out in handicaps he has had 6 runs and has never finished out of the top 2. He has won 3 times and has progressed from 71 to 93. The manner of his latest victory would suggest that there is still more to come. He won very comfortably at Lingfield and was eased down in the closing stages. That was a class 2 event and included some smart horses such as Axiom, Kingscroft and Reve De Nuit. Axiom is a 100 rated turf horse and he easily put him in his place. There is a doubt as to whether George Guru will be as good on turf but I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be. He is by Ishiguru and his progeny have no problem with turf. He has a good high draw in this race and comes here in cracking form. Whether he can translate his all weather form to the turf is a bit of a guess but I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to. I think its worth finding out at 28/1.

[Edberg]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 2.00 Naas STRADA COLORATO 2pts to win @ 6/1 bog (Ladbrokes) Finshed second on his debut at Leopardstown over 7f quickening very well from the middle of the bunch in the final furlong. That race presents by far the strongest form on offer here, and overall one of the best form of this generation in Ireland, since the winner was the 2/5 favourite Learn and the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt went on to finish 4th behind Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster and 4th (1.75L behind the winner French Fifteen) in the Criterium International at Saint Cloud (both races at the of October and both Group 1). Behind Strada Colorato there were four more subsequent winners: the 3rd Requisition (rated 94 now), the 4th Akeed Mofeed (also 2nd in a Group 2 0.5L behind David Livingston and rated 113), the 6th Akeed Wafi (also 2nd in a Group 3 and rated 102) and the 8th Suehail (rated 81 now). This son of Le Vie Dei Colori (fantastic Italian-trained miler who had been doing well as a stallion too but he died after his first season in 2008) will handle the ground (according to his pedigree) and will appreciate the furlong more (came from behind on his debut over 7f). Lyons has his string in good form (won twice in the last fortnight and collected a Listed at Cork with The Reaper) and the high draw (17) is surely not ideal but could be a minor problem if he gets a bit of luck in running and he surely doesn't need to be very close with the pace. Alindjar and Dynamite Dixie ran very well in their last outs few weeks ago and are good horses with the Oxx-trained probably open to more improvements and able to reverse the form that has seen him finshing behind the Bolger-trained colt at Cork 2 weeks ago still they are 85+ rated horses and the Lyons-trained colt should be way better than that level if he wintered well.

[chris34]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 2.10 Thirsk Divine Call appeared to bolt up last week on seasonal debut at first try at 6f on good/soft ground and loves the mud it would appear, generally struggled off this sort of mark last year and unless new yard have found more in him he could struggled stepped back up in trip and 6lb rise in the weights. Although Osteopath has never won round here he does have a good record here and soft ground no concern but record fresh not great and into veteran stage so likely to need the run. Maggie Mey might be a horse that has a little improvement in her this season and based on her seasonal debut she showed enough to suggest so looking badly in need of run it would seem last time out but soft ground probably not ideal and probably best watched. Viking Warrior took advantage of a slipping mark end of last season and ran well enough on seasonal debut but ultimately well held and would have to feel handicapper has the hold at the moment. Salik Tag may have more to offer after just 5 runs but maiden win when last seen last year looks weak and a mark of 67 may find him out and probably best watched depsite yard in good form. Beautifal Day is rated a massive 14lb lower on turf than AW but is without a win on turf and 8lb higher than when 2nd at Yarmouth last year so has something to prove at a price that is short enough! For me Save The Bees is worth a small win bet after a pleasing seasonal debut last week. Staying on but off the bridle some way out to suggest he would benefit from the run, clearly handles cut in the ground and has twice ran here and both times ran great races and with plenty of pace on in this race it should be run to suit with the likes of Maggie Mey, Piceno and Beautifal Day all front runners. 1pt win Save The Bees 15/2 VC 5.25 Newbury Wrote this about McBirney couple weeks ago before being made a non runner; For me Mc Birney really caught the eye under a very strange ride at Doncaster in a competitive big field handicap. Way off the pace early stages of the race before travelling well and making a positive move before turning in to sit handily on the outside but was then switched in behind wall of horses struggled for a way through and switched about a bit before gaps apppeared cant have done his momentum any good and for all he probably wouldnt have won he would have surely been closer under a better ride. Smart admirable jockey on board today in Carson and with ground conditions to suit and plenty of pace on likely in this race this could be setup for him especially if coming on for the run and handicapper been very kind and dropped him a 1lb and having come 2nd off a 5lb higher mark at Newmarket last year he could potentially be well treated. Obviously Carson doesnt ride today but Ryan Moore takes over and is a very eyecatching booking having only had the one ride for the stable in the last 5 years, will handle the cut in the ground and could still have more to offer this season. 2pt win Mcbirney 11/2 lads

[Edberg]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 4.40 Naas MAAREK 2pts to win @ 4/1 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) Reedoutable won in ver nice style at Curragh 25 days ago and 30 minutes later (over the same C&D) Maarek just missed the success beaten by Croisultan near the line. Both ran with a front-running style and Maarek recorded a time almost 2 seconds faster (carrying 5lb more than Redoutable). At the weights Redoutable seems very well treated today since she'll carry 22lb less than Maarek and that's probably the main reason why connections skipped a Guineas-trial (declared goal as they wanted to try and give her a black type) but she has a higher draw (9 vs 2) and has more to prove now handicapping against older and way more experienced sprinters so at current prices I'm with the 5yo trained by David Peter Nagle who should come on from that run at Curragh (first race after a 6-month break and still was sent off favourite) and won 3 times in 2011 handling very well even heavy ground conditions when he easily won over 6f at Curragh in September a high quality (£25k to the winner) handicap with 25 runners. An Saighdiur will try to confirm his good form on the AW off this lower mark on turf but could struggle and it's not an easy animal to win with on turf (maiden after 12 starts and just twice in the frame) but the main danger could be Jamesie who's back after a 120-day break (2nd behind Elusive Ridge off 94 last time out at Dundalk) who is only 4 and won twice last season over 5f and 6f (one win over 1m also in 2010 as a 2yo), handles the ground and could be still open to more improvements.

[Cowan]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april I've not been posting selections for some time now, although I'm still making them. I've moved home and had no internet. Also often find it tedious to write up my whole analysis after I've spent an hour going through it all in my head beforehand. I've taken a keen interest in the start to what will be my first start to a Flat Season using my form reading methodology. It worked on the AW but I was unsure how it would do on the Turf. Well so far I've been rewarded with 4 forecasts (30/1, 54/1, 95/1, 166/1) and a tricast (735/1). Winners at 12/1, 14/1, 16/1, 20/1, 25/1. :loon Absolutely unbelievable results and surely unsustainable so I'm backing off a bit to take stock. Anyway one race for today. Thirsk 2.10 - Viking Warrior (12.00), Beautiful Day (6.50), Save The Bees (8.00), RFC, RTC Eliminations Most horses have had a run now and only 4 come into this from a layoff. Two of these are getting old and on the decline now (Northern Fling, The Osteopath) and the other two have only won weak races (Salik Tag, Bella Noir). Others are in poor form (Steel Stockholder, Piceno, Hayek) and its difficult to see them winning. Of the five remaining I think Maggie Mey will struggle from the wide draw given it likes to race prominently since it won't get that from there. Divine Call might not manage the distance. Contenders Of those which remain there are significant positives. Viking Warrior has made a good start to the season and loves the distance. Has also won at Thirsk which is important as it can be a specialist course. Beautiful Day, despite only having won at Southwell(AW), has come close several times in big races on the Flat. Now that its found winning ways it can score on this surface too. Save The Bees raced very well recently and has been unlucky in its career not to have turned some of those 2nd places into wins. A drop in trip today will suit. Can position itself well from the wide draw given its style of running. I've deliberately sided with pace here since the tight turns at Thirsk favour prominent horses. Also the Soft ground today will make it difficult to get up from off the pace. With a thunder storm forecast for the afternoon this will be my only race at the course since Heavy ground can turn things into a lottery. :hope

[bowles10]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 3.45 Newbury Spring Cup Key trends 10/14 - 4yo 13/14 - 4yo-5yo (6yo won last year) 13/14 - career wins 1-4 9/14 - weight 8st 6 - 9st 6 9/14 - career runs 8-20 12/14 - Mid/High draw 10/14 - previous distance winner 8/14 - 1 or 2 runs that season 6/14 - Runners from the Lincoln The age trend is very significant here as we can rule out the older horses who just dont seem to win this race. Looking at the amount of runs/wins, we have a trend that shows the horse should have adequate experience without being prolific. Mid to high drawn horses respected & with 25 runners, i will use that to decide final selections The profile i am looking for is a 4yo-5yo, 1-4 career wins, drawn 10-22 Remove on age: Mull of Killough, Vainglory, Global Village Drawn 1-9 removes: Take it to the max, Highland Knight, Capaill Liath, Mont Ras, Captain Bertie, The Tichborne No more than 4 career wins removes: Pintura, Nazreef, That leaves 11 horses from a list of 22. so lets remove those who havent won over the distance: Fury, Labarinto, Heddwynn, Karaka Jack, Cruiser, Sinfonico This should leave us with a shortlist of 5: George Guru draw 19, ran 4 times on AW this year, consistent but never ran on turf Emillio Largo draw 13, ran up a hat trick last season, best win class 3 hcap, yet to run this term Dubawi Sound draw 20, won a maiden here over CD at 50/1, lightly raced, still on mark of 88 Maverick draw 14, runs on both surfaces and best OR on turf was 76, off 84 today Oriental scot draw 18, won off a mark of 79 last season, off 2lb higher today, no form at class 2 For me there isnt too much strength in the shortlist above and like last year an exposed 6yo could win this. MULL of KILLOUGH 2nd and 3rd in the last 2 lincolns is solid form and another stride would have won the lIncoln this year. I would favour going for ORIENTAL SCOT from my short list above and adding MULL of KILLOUGH Bets ORIENTAL SCOT 5pts EW 22/1 >Bet365 MULL OF KILLOUGH 10pts win 9/1 >Bet365

[RussP]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april I'm taking 2 bets today. 3.15 Thirsk Class 3 handicap over the turning 7f here on soft ground and we still have the whole field of 14 standing their ground. From their wide draws, Prime Exhibit and Tariq Too are too short whilst the value in Mass Rally has gone considering the horse struggles to poke its head in front. I do, however, like the chances of one in: Kingscroft (10/1 William Hill BOG) - Surely this horse can only have been priced up on its run in the Spring Mile 3 weeks ago. That run apart, this one has a top chance. Knows how to win, with 7 victories last year climbing the weights from 68 to the low 90's. Mark in the 90's has proved beyond this horse but races off its last winning mark today. Suits racing on turning tracks with form at places like Chester and has consistently proved that 7f is its distance. Is a winner on soft so will no problems with todays ground and enjoys forcing the pace which, at Thirsk, is always considered a plus. This horse has a class ceiling too, and I'd oppose it all day long in Class 2 races but is now in its element with conditions ideal today. Has plenty of form to recommend it today and I'm happy to overlook it's poor run lto where the big field, fast pace, trip and straight track went against our selection. Both trainer & jockey can do no wrong currently and very interesting that jockey is 2 from 2 on this horse. With many of the field unsure to like the ground, this horse looks an absolutely cracking bet to get us off to a fantastic start. 3.45 Newbury Spring Cup with a big field of 22 runners over the straight 1m here. A Class 2 handicap attracting some top performers and it looks a real open renewal of the race. The ground will be soft and we've seen already this week that it will take an excellent performance to win from off the pace so the likes of Captain Bertie, for me, will have to be ignored. Despite trends suggesting otherwise, I think a low draw could be an advantage. I genuinely don't see them against the stands rail here, especially with most if not all of the pace drawn in single figures. I'm going against the grain here and sticking with the pace angle for what I think is an overpriced horse in: Highland Knight (20/1 William Hill BOG) - I originally thought the expected odds of around 12/1 may be a tad skinny but its current odds looks excellent value to me. Drawn 4, near the pace, and looks a horse with a progressive profile. Never won off this mark but its lto effort, seasonal reappearance, behind Nazreef offers plenty of hope and that will have put our charge spot on for today. Won a quality Sandown event last year beating Start Right and finished at Epsom to the excellent Dance And Dance over 9f. Form over further in these big field straight track handicaps is advantageous as many fail due to a lack of stamina rather than a lack of pace. This horse will not suffer from either as we've seen that it can quicken from near the front. One poor run last term was on unsuitably good to firm going whilst it's best form all came on good (didn't race on softer last term). Despite having not won on soft, has 2 very decent bits of form on it and I strongly feel that the more it cuts up, the better. With conditions to suit, a recent run under its belt and hopefully the draw bias being in our favour (despite what 'the crowd' is saying), we could see a massive run from a horse that could go on to bigger things this season.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 2.35 Newbury - 2pts win Fillionaire @ 9/1 (Bet365) Tricky race to assess but I liked Mick Channon's horse's two efforts last year and looks like the type of horse to progress from 2 to 3. Her dam definitely did and she also had strong form on soft ground which gives her a sound chance of enjoying the deeper ground on offer today. She defied a bit of greenness to run 2 1/4l away from a 17-strong field at Goodwood and then ran a great 3rd over today's c&d when 2l behind the smart Pimpernel. On both occasions, she was under pressure for quite a while but finished off her races very strongly and the softer ground may help her travel into the race a bit better. She stays well so that's no concern here and the yard are in form. Best Terms is a big threat but has to prove she stays and I like the look of the Channon entrant here against the field.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 3.45 Newbury - 2pts win Dubawi Sound @ 8/1 (Bet365) Another tricky puzzle to solve but I find the Roger Varian runner one of the more interesting contenders, with the yard in top form, and he's open to plenty of improvement having had just three runs to date. He caused an upset on debut when scoring at 50/1 but there was no fluke about the victory. He ran to a comfortable 2l success here over this c&d so that is no concern, and he had some half-decent types in behind - including Colombian. Things went against him at Epsom on his 2nd start where a combination of keenness, bad luck in running, and inexperience at the eccentric track cost him as he came home 4th of 7. That was off the same mark as today and with the race more run to suit, you'd think he could compete off his mark. He went to Newmarket for a big 20-runner mile handicap and ran a bit better than the result suggests I think. He ended up 10th of 20 but was slowly away down the centre and after a little while staying where he was, he used up energy to switch to the far side before coming with what looked a decent effort rather isolated down the centre before fading late on. A strong pace suits him and the easier finish here should suit him, as well as hopefully less energy being used to get into position!

[mowgli77]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april Newbury 2.00pm - LAY - Harris Tweed @ Betfair SP I'm not convinced by this one at all, will front run and could prove hard to reel in but I think it will set the race up for one of the other rivals. I rate Arctic Cosmos and have backed this for a decent stake and had smaller covering bets on Bridge Of Gold and Eye Of The Tiger. BOG has course form and EOTT has good form with Getaway but if Artic Cosmos goes on the surface I feel it will be hard to beat and I really rate both Buick as a jockey and Gosden as a trainer. Curley has said he is unsure if EOTT retains ability and Margarsson suggests BOG may not be race fit. Newbury 2.35pm - LAY - Best Terms @ Betfair SP Only a small horse, might have trained on but won't have grown much and feel it will be vulnerable over the season. A lot of unknown quantities in the race such as Electrelane and Switcher. I like the look of Brick Tops but it has been years since a once raced horse won this race. Radio Gaga has to have a genuine ew chance too and I feel there are 3-4 potential top class rivals to oppose Best Terms with. Newbury 3.10pm - WIN - Bronterre 4/6 William Hill Has a turn of foot and form has taken a boost with Trumpet Major and also the Maktoum horse that won on Friday. Dobbs has said this horse is electric and he won on it twice, only loss came under Hughes. I'm on it single and doubled with Arctic Cosmos and have also had small stakes ante post for the Guineas at 25-1 with a view to trading it as I fancy Nephrite and Fencing for that race. Has won on good to soft, should be ok on a soft surface and main rival looks to be Spiritual Star.

[Falbrav]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april

SWITCHER 2.35 Newbury. 1 point win. Needs to find a little with the unexposed nature of the race, but I feel this race will set up nicely and the trip and ground should be ideal. Can show that bit extra to go close today and good odds. 9/1 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april

Casper Netscher 3.10 Newbury. 1 point win. I think the trip will suit well on this course and the ground's fine. Needs to be at best but can improve slightly for the trip today. Good chance of turning over the odds on favourite. 7/2 Bet365 (bog)

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Newbury 3:45 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Labarinto [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 2/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 21/04/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 15.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Forgive his run LTO. He finished 15th of 19 here for the Dubai Duty Free Handicap last September. He had jockey Richard Hughes on board for the first time that day. Hi's previous four attempts had Ryan Moore. First three starts with three different jockeys. His races with Moore were very good for 4th, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st. All runs over 1m2f at Newmarket (Rowley Mile & July), Newbury, and Goodwood. I think he will be a much better horse this year now 4yo. He is well bred by Juddmonte Farms using Danisili and the dam Tarocchi who produced the two time Group 1 winner at 1m Price Tag. He was Favorite to win the Cambridshire last year in the ante post market but missed the race. Goes well fresh and still capable of improving. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[THE-WORD]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april 3.10 new bronterre is a cert but im suggesting a forecast bet here with spiritual star to follow him home should pay around 8 to 9/1 for the straight forecast

[robertob]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april

2.00 Newbury: Bridge Of Gold @ 8/1 Bet365 I have the feeling that this race is much more open than the betting market suggest. Sure, Arctic Cosmos couldn't have been more impressive at his reappearance over a trip that is probably too sharp lto. He is the class act in this field, no doubt, though he never raced on softish ground and that must be a concern tomorrow. If he handles the ground, fine, then he will be hard to beat, but that is far from certain in my mind. Second favourite Harris Tweed will relish the ground however, and looks the main danger of Arctic Cosmos, but I think he's not a world beater and is vulnerably anyway. For me the most interesting horse here is Bridge Of Gold, who finished a close 2nd last year in this race. It wasn't the strongest renewal, that's for sure, but he ran a big race nonetheless. He didn't run again since and that is a concern indeed, though he did mostly very well fresh and I have no doubt that trainer Magnusson has him fit for the race. The trainer holds Bridge Of Gold in high regard, he even said it's the best horse he's training and it looks to me as well as if he really tries to find the right races for the horse. Apart of that Bridge Of Gold has only one flat win so far on his tally, though he's still very lightly raced for a six year old and won his debut here at Newbury on softish ground. He also ran well in a good race at France on softish ground, so that should be an indication that he'll have absolutely no problem with the ground tomorrow. I think it's still possible that he didn't show his full potential yet and could still improve, even if it sounds a bit odd in contrast to his age, but he had only five starts on turf yet and was Group 3 placed at his last start. It's also noteworthy that trainer Magnusson did very well at Newbury in the past and the trainer/jockey combo of Magnusson/Hanagan enjoys a 25% strikerate. All in all I think 8/1 is too high for his chances in this race. 3.50 Thirsk: Justonefortheroad @ 4/1 Bet365 Loads speaks in favour of Justonefortheroad tomorrow. The way he won lto was breathtaking. He had a bad start, was well off the pace, was early under pressure and looked far from a horse with a winning chance for a long way out in the race but eventually gained loads of ground in the home straight, came then even back on the bridle and won easily at the end. A massive performance which is only possible if a horse is in fantastic form. He won't mind the ground conditions tomorrow as he won on firm- but also on soft ground and won also already here at Thirsk. A solid pace looks on the cards with Xilerator in the field who won in impressive fashion on softish ground lto from the front and who is another interesting contender. Rodrigo De Torres likes to race prominently too. A good pace will play Justonefortheroad very much into the hands I think however. A proper test of stamina looks sure enough with the ground conditions and a (hopefully) good pace and shouldn't cause him problems as he's as good over 7f than over 1m. It's not an easy race though, the Godolphin runner will run almost certainly a big race, Xilerator has super form to offer and the highest rated horse in the field, Smarty Socks, has winning claims as well. But it's Justonefortheroad who makes the most appeal at his current price and with the conditions in his favour and his obviously excellent form.

WOW that was close! Justonefortheroad won it in a photo, thanks to a great late finish. This horse has clearly a great attitude. Nice drift as well, SP was 5/1! Thought Bridge Of Gold ran a good race too but clearly had no chance with the hugely impressive Harris Tweed. Anyway, I'm happy.

[LoveNorthernRacing]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april Not tips, just what I fancy, left it kind of late to post; Sartingo 5.00 Thirsk Besty 5.35 Thirsk Mistress of Rome 7.00 Notts Got on Besty @ 20/1 first thing this morning!

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: flat racing saturday 21st april [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Wolverhampton 9:15 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Endaxi Mana Mou [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 2/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 21/04/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Sportingbet @ 26.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Peter Charalambous is a trainer worth following at Wolverhampton. Over the past 5 seasons, he's won 4 ouf of 10 runs. 4 from 9 when running uning the trainers colours. The selection looked well LTO when making her yard debut. Finished beaten by 2 3/4 lengths fro 5th of 9; chased leader until 8f out, chased leaders until shuffled back on inside and lost place approaching final 5f, rallied over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong. She did not have the best trip that day and if she did I think he would have finished a lot closer. That was her first runs in 3 1/2 months. Charalambous sent Colinca's Lad to the winners circle after his winter break in a 1m3f contest. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]