Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

[western skies]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 15 April 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Manchester United v Aston Villa (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.27[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 15[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[pg_yid]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April Under 3 goals (AH) @ 2.08 (Pinnacle) 44% of United's home games have gone under 2.5 goals, as have 50% of Villa's away games. These two figures give us an average of 47%. This is not quite an accurate probability for unders in this game; the Villa game has a higher than average chance of going unders from United's standpoint, as Villa are more resiliant defensively than a lot of teams they play...yet for Villa the United game is more likely to produce goals than their average game, as United are a top side who can score a lot of goals at home. So let's say our provisional probability is a 44% chance of under 2.5. Now a look at relevant matches, i.e. similar match ups to this one which have already been played this season. IMO, these are: Arsenal 3-0 Villa Chelsea 1-3 Villa Liverpool 1-1 Villa Newcastle 2-1 Villa Tottenham 2-0 Villa Man Utd 1-0 Fulham Man Utd 2-0 Stoke Man Utd 2-0 QPR 5/8 of these games were under 2.5 goals. Moving away from the stats, Villa are tough to break down away from home, which is possibly the best thing you can say about them at the moment. They have only lost 4 games away from home, although these losses have been to the top sides, a quite astonishing record for a team so low in the league table. This fact made me think twice about my initial instinct to back the home win in this game at 1.25. This to me now seems a fair price, but not necessarily value. United have been struggling for goals lately, and not playing that well. The pressure will be on them, especially if City win, and I think this is one of those games they will look to grind out a result in rather than winning with style. Villa meanwhile need a win to be sure of avoiding relegation, but it goes without saying they won't be looking for it here, and will fight tooth and nail for a draw with a 4-5-1 setup. All things considered, I think the chances of unders are around 45%, whilst a best price of 2.6 reflects an implied probability of 38%. Good value here then on unders (if I am right!) but I'd rather take a smaller price and have the extra cover so 2.08 for under 3 goals (AH) is my bet here.

[Alexc]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

Under 3 goals (AH) @ 2.08 (Pinnacle) 44% of United's home games have gone under 2.5 goals, as have 50% of Villa's away games. These two figures give us an average of 47%. This is not quite an accurate probability for unders in this game; the Villa game has a higher than average chance of going unders from United's standpoint, as Villa are more resiliant defensively than a lot of teams they play...yet for Villa the United game is more likely to produce goals than their average game, as United are a top side who can score a lot of goals at home. So let's say our provisional probability is a 44% chance of under 2.5. Now a look at relevant matches, i.e. similar match ups to this one which have already been played this season. IMO, these are: Arsenal 3-0 Villa Chelsea 1-3 Villa Liverpool 1-1 Villa Newcastle 2-1 Villa Tottenham 2-0 Villa Man Utd 1-0 Fulham Man Utd 2-0 Stoke Man Utd 2-0 QPR 5/8 of these games were under 2.5 goals. Moving away from the stats, Villa are tough to break down away from home, which is possibly the best thing you can say about them at the moment. They have only lost 4 games away from home, although these losses have been to the top sides, a quite astonishing record for a team so low in the league table. This fact made me think twice about my initial instinct to back the home win in this game at 1.25. This to me now seems a fair price, but not necessarily value. United have been struggling for goals lately, and not playing that well. The pressure will be on them, especially if City win, and I think this is one of those games they will look to grind out a result in rather than winning with style. Villa meanwhile need a win to be sure of avoiding relegation, but it goes without saying they won't be looking for it here, and will fight tooth and nail for a draw with a 4-5-1 setup. All things considered, I think the chances of unders are around 45%, whilst a best price of 2.6 reflects an implied probability of 38%. Good value here then on unders (if I am right!) but I'd rather take a smaller price and have the extra cover so 2.08 for under 3 goals (AH) is my bet here.

Strange how people have different interpretations of teams. I regard Villa as more an overs side, with a dodgy defence, and capable attack. Problem I'd have with unders is I couldn't rule out Villa scoring, which they've done in 63% of their away's, ten out of sixteen.

[pg_yid]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

Strange how people have different interpretations of teams. I regard Villa as more an overs side, with a dodgy defence, and capable attack. Problem I'd have with unders is I couldn't rule out Villa scoring, which they've done in 63% of their away's, ten out of sixteen.

They are 5th most underish side in the league this season, averaging 2.47 goals a game. They have conceded the seventh least goals away from home, and have lost only four times away. I know what you mean though. I think they do have a dodgy defence and capable attack, but a very defensive manager who often plays for the draw. There is therefore a disharmony about Villa which I believe has been one of the reasons why they've been so poor this season. Although to be fair Dunne and Collins can be excellent on their day, they are too inconsistent. Knowing Alex McLeish I think there is only one way he will set Villa up in this game, and United have struggled to score many goals past teams lately, but they haven't conceded that many either.

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April Ferdinand and scholes were rested against wigan and I think it showed. Most important players in this spine are these two and Rooney IMO. Think villa who have been rubbish will feel the backlash at the theatre. Will have to check team news. Man u also fuming over penalty not given for clear hand ball... Good luck all. :ok

[HastGill1]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April I dunno, I don't personally think Villa are much cop, the injuries are stacking up also, Bent is out still as are Dunne and Petrov, add to that tests for Chris Herd and Stephen Warnock, Herd suffered a head injury during the 1-1 draw with Stoke while Warnock was substituted with an ankle problem. Charles N'Zogbia and Gary Gardner will be in contention to replace the duo if ruled out. Marc Albrighton is also battling to overcome a thigh problem. United have conceded 1 in 7 at home in the league since the Blackburn disaster, they are hardly blowing teams away and, as seen in the QPR game, are getting the usual borderline decisions go their way. McLeish is pretty negative away from home, without Bent I don't see them as a particular goal threat and their record at Old Trafford is pretty terrible, Agbanlahor hasn't hit his early season form for a while and Bent is obviously their main threat. this looks like a 2-0 job to me, United tend to struggle for tempo at home especially when teams sit off them like Villa will, I don't see United running up much of a score and there is no value on the home win, under 3.0AH would be my call too..

[Rocky.]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April Rooney has 22 goals in the league this season, and has been on form his last few games. Could see him scoring a couple tomorrow. 2 or more with William Hill for Rooney is 9/4. Could be worth a £20 punt.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April 15/4/12 EPL Manchester United vs Aston Villa Isn't it ridiculous the way the premier league twists and turns? Not just at the bottom but at the top too. It makes me want to give trading a go, but knowing things like this, as soon as you start things begin to go the mug way. Mancini and Manchester City are in serious contention. Despite United having an 'easy' run in, teams at the bottom can play as well as any when fighting for survival, as proved with Wigan. Their seemingly easy run-in is perhaps harder than they think. They were fortunate to get an easy win against QPR with the harsh red card, though United were always favorites to go on and get the win anyway should that red card and penalty were not given. Aston Villa have had an very average season under McLeish. They have really become a selling club and from challenging for a top 4 spot under O'Neill just seasons ago is now a team doing just enough to be ahead of the relegation scrap. Imagine the Wenger boys down here at this stage of the season, you'd think that's pretty ridiculous right? But there wasn't much separating these two in terms of league position just a few seasons ago. I've had a serious thought about United's play style. Away from home, they seem to benefit more with the opposition needing to attack. Whilst at home, they rarely looked like seriously threatening the opposition's goal outside of Fergie's time, and when they do have the lead, they don't look like adding to it and have given it away on numerous occasions. In Europe is the classic example, But take the game with QPR more recently as an example, though they dominated in possession, they were really not creating too much and it took a superb strike from Scholes to seal the game for United. QPR could have easily got back into the game. Away from home though, apart from the recent game against Wigan, they seem much more clinical and is much easier to score the goals with the opposition having to come out and play. Just off the top of my head I remember two emphatic 0 - 5 wins against Fulham and Wolves. You don't see many scorelines like that at old Trafford this season. In fact, I cant remember any off the top of my head. Actually I do now, how can you forget the 8 goals against Arsenal? Another 5 - 0 fest against Wigan has just come through, though in harsh circumstances with Sammon's sending off. Despite all this its clear that Man United's away record is the best in the Premier league. I really don't know, but there is something missing from United's recent performances. Lack of that early season hunger and optimism, lack of flare and desire to humiliate your opponents. Villa are such a boring side to watch. The 1 - 1 draw against Stoke at home summed up their season in my opinion. Their away form is probably better than their home form, and have only been defeated 4 times on the road and drawn 9, whilst there has already been 7 defeats at Villa park. This reflects McLeish's management and play style away from home. Villa fans won't like to hear this again, but McLeish is the dullest manager a club can have. I have used some statistics in this review which I don't normally do. I am tempted to back Villa on handicap, but am so undecided about this 'Fergie time', having flushed the likes of my Blackburn handicap down the drain. This can go either way, but in football, even though everyone knows that United desperately need the win, things won't go their way and deviation kicks in. There was a weak rally or non existent Fergie time late on at Wigan despite at a losing position, and I still back the fact that late goals are mostly a coincidence. Not much in the team news for United. Nani might be restored back into the starting lineup and so might Scholes, who didn't make the bench against Wigan and were perhaps missed. Villa have N'Zogbia back from injury and he is still a very good player despite being out of form since leaving Wigan. Villa +1.75 2.160 188Bet 6/10

[blackcrow]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April Over 3.5 @ 2.39 pinnacle Over 4.5 @ 4.00 centrebet With Man City's big win, Man Utd know that they also not only have to win here but look to win by a few goals. They have scored at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 8 home games with Villa, so they will be confident in scoring on a defence that has allowed 4 goals to Chelsea and 3 goals to Liverpool in some of their recent games. However, they have scored in 4 of their last 5 visits to Old Trafford, as well as scoring in 5 of their last 7 games, and though United have kept 6 straight clean sheets, they may leave themselves open to a goal if they press forward in search of more goals. Season record: 144-201 (-8.80)

[Ben Fourie]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa Manchester United 0-1 Aston Villa Manchester United 3-2 Aston Villa Manchester United 4-0 Aston Villa Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa United must win today, Villa will try to take one point but this game is really important for MU and I see a home win. Stats are good for goals, Villa is bad but they can score. Offensively, Manchester is not very good lately and it's time for them to win a game with a big score. I expect a MU's win today with at least 3-4 goals. Over 2,75 @ 1.68 - 3U

[ThusPrider]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

15/4/12 EPL Manchester United vs Aston Villa Isn't it ridiculous the way the premier league twists and turns? Not just at the bottom but at the top too. It makes me want to give trading a go, but knowing things like this, as soon as you start things begin to go the mug way. Mancini and Manchester City are in serious contention. Despite United having an 'easy' run in, teams at the bottom can play as well as any when fighting for survival, as proved with Wigan. Their seemingly easy run-in is perhaps harder than they think. They were fortunate to get an easy win against QPR with the harsh red card, though United were always favorites to go on and get the win anyway should that red card and penalty were not given. Aston Villa have had an very average season under McLeish. They have really become a selling club and from challenging for a top 4 spot under O'Neill just seasons ago is now a team doing just enough to be ahead of the relegation scrap. Imagine the Wenger boys down here at this stage of the season, you'd think that's pretty ridiculous right? But there wasn't much separating these two in terms of league position just a few seasons ago. I've had a serious thought about United's play style. Away from home, they seem to benefit more with the opposition needing to attack. Whilst at home, they rarely looked like seriously threatening the opposition's goal outside of Fergie's time, and when they do have the lead, they don't look like adding to it and have given it away on numerous occasions. In Europe is the classic example, But take the game with QPR more recently as an example, though they dominated in possession, they were really not creating too much and it took a superb strike from Scholes to seal the game for United. QPR could have easily got back into the game. Away from home though, apart from the recent game against Wigan, they seem much more clinical and is much easier to score the goals with the opposition having to come out and play. Just off the top of my head I remember two emphatic 0 - 5 wins against Fulham and Wolves. You don't see many scorelines like that at old Trafford this season. In fact, I cant remember any off the top of my head. Actually I do now, how can you forget the 8 goals against Arsenal? Another 5 - 0 fest against Wigan has just come through, though in harsh circumstances with Sammon's sending off. Despite all this its clear that Man United's away record is the best in the Premier league. I really don't know, but there is something missing from United's recent performances. Lack of that early season hunger and optimism, lack of flare and desire to humiliate your opponents. Villa are such a boring side to watch. The 1 - 1 draw against Stoke at home summed up their season in my opinion. Their away form is probably better than their home form, and have only been defeated 4 times on the road and drawn 9, whilst there has already been 7 defeats at Villa park. This reflects McLeish's management and play style away from home. Villa fans won't like to hear this again, but McLeish is the dullest manager a club can have. I have used some statistics in this review which I don't normally do. I am tempted to back Villa on handicap, but am so undecided about this 'Fergie time', having flushed the likes of my Blackburn handicap down the drain. This can go either way, but in football, even though everyone knows that United desperately need the win, things won't go their way and deviation kicks in. There was a weak rally or non existent Fergie time late on at Wigan despite at a losing position, and I still back the fact that late goals are mostly a coincidence. Not much in the team news for United. Nani might be restored back into the starting lineup and so might Scholes, who didn't make the bench against Wigan and were perhaps missed. Villa have N'Zogbia back from injury and he is still a very good player despite being out of form since leaving Wigan. Villa +1.75 2.160 188Bet 6/10

-6 units, had a late punt on unders before the match as well to lose abit more. I can't believe young did that against his old team, I know there's contact but he's dived there and it just makes you sick to see people trying to get cheap penalties rather than trying to score but get penalties when unfairly stopped

[blackcrow]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

Over 3.5 @ 2.39 :D Over 4.5 @ 4.00 :(

Season record: 145-202 (-8.41)

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April Young is scum and on this occasion I'm glad he helped Villa to defeat. They can have no complaints whatsoever after the number of times he did the same for them, think about it. I'm looking forward to the day when he's on the end of a challenge that severely hurts him, see if he feigns injury then. I have no sympathy for repeat offender cheats.

[pg_yid]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

Under 3 goals (AH) @ 2.08 (Pinnacle) 44% of United's home games have gone under 2.5 goals, as have 50% of Villa's away games. These two figures give us an average of 47%. This is not quite an accurate probability for unders in this game; the Villa game has a higher than average chance of going unders from United's standpoint, as Villa are more resiliant defensively than a lot of teams they play...yet for Villa the United game is more likely to produce goals than their average game, as United are a top side who can score a lot of goals at home. So let's say our provisional probability is a 44% chance of under 2.5. Now a look at relevant matches, i.e. similar match ups to this one which have already been played this season. IMO, these are: Arsenal 3-0 Villa Chelsea 1-3 Villa Liverpool 1-1 Villa Newcastle 2-1 Villa Tottenham 2-0 Villa Man Utd 1-0 Fulham Man Utd 2-0 Stoke Man Utd 2-0 QPR 5/8 of these games were under 2.5 goals. Moving away from the stats, Villa are tough to break down away from home, which is possibly the best thing you can say about them at the moment. They have only lost 4 games away from home, although these losses have been to the top sides, a quite astonishing record for a team so low in the league table. This fact made me think twice about my initial instinct to back the home win in this game at 1.25. This to me now seems a fair price, but not necessarily value. United have been struggling for goals lately, and not playing that well. The pressure will be on them, especially if City win, and I think this is one of those games they will look to grind out a result in rather than winning with style. Villa meanwhile need a win to be sure of avoiding relegation, but it goes without saying they won't be looking for it here, and will fight tooth and nail for a draw with a 4-5-1 setup. All things considered, I think the chances of unders are around 45%, whilst a best price of 2.6 reflects an implied probability of 38%. Good value here then on unders (if I am right!) but I'd rather take a smaller price and have the extra cover so 2.08 for under 3 goals (AH) is my bet here.

Called it wrong, of course after City's win United were going to try and make up goal difference, there is the benefit of waiting until the day of the game (or at least the night before) before betting. Haven't seen highlights or the game as I was at Wembley but by the sounds of it unlucky about the first goal, I actually thought after recent decisions refs might start being wary of giving United easy penalties but obviously not. If that doesn't go in then it's a different game but still not sure about my pick.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April I need to consider diving in my picks. Any diver on a team and ill add extra chance for that team to win. Us punters must adapt and squeeze ecery ounce of value out. Though there is nothing to predict if refs can see if the ball crossed the line or not and which side would have been given it...

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

Ferdinand and scholes were rested against wigan and I think it showed. Most important players in this spine are these two and Rooney IMO. Think villa who have been rubbish will feel the backlash at the theatre. Will have to check team news. Man u also fuming over penalty not given for clear hand ball... Good luck all. :ok

Solid performance :beer Loaded up when I heard Warnock and Herd wouldn't make it and Baker played shite.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

I need to consider diving in my picks. Any diver on a team and ill add extra chance for that team to win. Us punters must adapt and squeeze ecery ounce of value out. Though there is nothing to predict if refs can see if the ball crossed the line or not and which side would have been given it...

Thats why I don't usually bet Unders on teams loaded with diving scum such as Young, Bale, and Walcott, or dinosaurs like Dunne that give away penalties at will through their own stupidity. To be honest, IMO for what its worth, and I'm confident I won't be the only one on here thinking the same, as an overall product I find the Premier League to be a pile of ****. The only teams I have any time for are Fulham, Swansea, and Norwich. No interest in the rest whatsoever, this is a league littered with cheats, vastly overrated players and managers, and refereeing that makes the entire tournament a lottery. It stinks.

[HastGill1]

Re: Man United v Aston Villa > 15 April

Thats why I don't usually bet Unders on teams loaded with diving scum such as Young' date=' Bale, and Walcott, or dinosaurs like Dunne that give away penalties at will through their own stupidity. To be honest, IMO for what its worth, and I'm confident I won't be the only one on here thinking the same, as an overall product I find the Premier League to be a pile of ****. The only teams I have any time for are Fulham, Swansea, and Norwich. No interest in the rest whatsoever, this is a league littered with cheats, vastly overrated players and managers, and refereeing that makes the entire tournament a lottery. It stinks.[/quote'] I don't know what leagues you do follow then? There is diving in the Premiership but nowhere near as bad as some other leagues, all incidents in the Premiership get magnified 100 times because the English media are obsessed with it, Christ watch the average La Liga game and see which is worse! Tons of yellow cards in the Premiership would be classed as red cards over there..The Premiership is the most watched league in Europe for a reason, its competitive and you very rarely gets teams lying down to get steamrolled like you do in La Liga. I think the Bundesliga is the best to watch but your last couple of sentences sound very bitter and are unfair to a lot of sides.. And Dunne hasn't played for the last two months so its a bit unfair to pick him out!