Blazing Bailey Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Plumpton 405 – Colins Desire 10/1 1pt Win Bet365 & Carriglea Wood 4/1 1pt Win Bet365 There are two shortish price favourites and while they look to have a decent chance, the 5/2 currently on offer for Ballyoneen and 2/1 for Sieglande don’t represent any value whatsoever in my eyes especially when the former isn’t the greatest of jumpers & the latter has been off the track for a bit. Of my two selections, Colins Desire looks to have a workable mark with the proposition of more to come. The ground & distance will suit and this slight drop in class will help. 10/1 looks too big for me to leave alone. Carriglea Wood is an interesting one as the form of his Leicester 5th looks very strong those finishing ahead all going on to win again since, suggesting he might have more to offer. He looks very much a stayer so the increased trip will help, but he may want longer or just simply not have enough speed to win many races. Time will tell and while 4/1 looks about right with these conditions to suit. Plumpton 435 – James Pollard 12/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes & Double Handful 7/2 1pt Win Ladbrokes Again this is a race with a short price favourite that I am looking to take on. Ladbrokes have Ugo at 5/4 with the rest of the firms a bit longer and the James Pollard is half the price with the other main firms which suggest those at Ladbrokes have either priced it up wrong or know something we don’t! Ugo won really well LTO and it is no surprise to see him as the favourite but like the others he has question marks to answer. Firstly he seems to need genuinely quick ground and with potential showers forecast for tomorrow he might not get that here. Secondly looking through the form of his previous win in novice company, the 2nd place was OR 121 however by my reckoning that looks very harsh on what he has achieved and a mark of around the 100 mark and similarly the 3rd place in that race doesn’t look worthy of their rating which raises questions about what he really beat. Off 107 himself today, judging on my comment above, it still wouldn’t have him weighted out of it, but with the combination of the potential ground & it only being 4 days since that run makes me think he is vulnerable. So that leaves the question of who I should back. James Pollard’s form from LTO looks very strong with the 1st, 2nd & 4th all winning NTO! That should leave him with some room for manoeuvre and with him already having C&D form as well as proven on both good and good to soft ground I think he is a massive price. Of the others, Double Handful also looks to possibly have a little in hand. Judging purely on his last run where he was 5L behind a 130+ winner (NTO) he could do well off of his current mark of 120. My worry with him is that the form before that amounts to very little and the 3rd place of his previous race doesn’t help his case either. I probably should leave this one alone but with conditions to suit again, I am willing to gamble that there he does have more to offer, albeit at small stakes. Rajamead is another who could turn up with a shout tomorrow. He needs softer ground which he may or may not get, but I get the feeling he may be weighted up to his best for the time being so I will pass. Oasis Knight has been off the track for a while and also races with out his normal headgear so I will pass & Silver Lily has also been off but does look like a market mover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April Towcester 240 – Thorseby 8/1 1pt Win Bet365 & Cecily Parsely This race looks set to be dominated by the two favourites of which I think Cecily Parsley looks the best treated and is the one I think will win although given the price of 6/4 at the moment I will look elsewhere. The other favourite Rivermouth doesn’t look one to trust IMO and even though the 2nd of his previous race has won NTO, off such a lowly mark it should have been expected somewhat. Of the others Thorseby catches my eye the most. His previous 3rd came in similar conditions to today and the form looks solid. With the stiffer track & extra distance looking as if they will suit, there might just be more to come. Witchs Hat ran well LTo but given his overall profile Im not sure he will back that up while Midnight Charmer could potentially run a big race as the form of his 2nd on soft at Fontwell looks good with the 3rd & 4th winning next time. However, I have come to distrust all form on softer ground at Fontwell as form seems to go out of the window in those conditions so I will pass on this occasion. Towcester 340 – Ruby Crown 1pt Win 9/2 BetVictor & King Ozzy 10/1 1pt WinBet365 This looks quite a competitive race and cases can be made for a few of these. Giant of Murchu looks to have solid form claims although might be too high in the weights now, Swiss Guard is interesting on good ground but looks as if further will suit and Midnight Spirit might run well despite the trainer claiming he want it softer after pulling up on his previous run (considering he has won in the past on GF!?) Of my selections Ruby Crown looks to have the best chance and heads the market. He has C&D form off 2lb lower and his profile suggest he has more to offer in my eyes. King Ozzy could be interesting have been refreshed by a break, considering he won a class 3 handicap on his return last spring. He possibly looks as though he wants a stiff 2miles which he will get here. His runs since his last win have mainly been in conditions that haven’t fully suited and whilst I would have expected him to perform better on a couple of them occasions I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back here. Another one I almost forgot is Samizdat who's previous run suggests he may be returning to form. Currently around 14/1 I may look to have a small EW bet if the price drifts a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edberg Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April « 3:35 » Cork (IRE) SUN 8 APR 2012 FRIDAY EVENING RACING AT CORK RACECOURSE HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE C) (4yo+ 0-140) Winner €17,875 Good 2m3f Number of runners: 18 MARK ME UP 2pts to win @ 10/1 bog (Boylesports and many more) Mark Me Up is a former PTP winner who had disappointed in his first two seasons under rules in 2009-10 and 2010-11. Back in action last November the horse proved little by little to be still very skilled and this season has never run a bad race so far always competing in very crowded handicaps: 4th of 17 and 3rd of 16 at Thurles over 2m and 2m7f, 6th of 21 over 2m4f here at Cork, 2nd of 18 over 2m at Limerick, 2nd of 13 over 2m at Thurles, finally first at Down Royal over 2m last February and 3rd of 16 over 2m at Fairyhouse two weeks after his win and 2nd of 12 last time out here at Cork over 2m. The 7yo son of Mark Of Esteem has been very unlucky after that very easy win at Down Royal as both last two starts could have brought him two more wins but for two unlucky mistakes at the last and second last hurdle. Last time out here at Cork 17 days ago he had the race at his mercy but he blundered the final flight and lost at least 3L from On My Own that seemed already well beaten before the last jump since Mark Me Up was travelling by far the best of the duo and had made a very smooth progress in the final stages of the race nonetheless Mark Me Up was able to recover in the run-in and missed the win by a head. The Rothwell-trained gelding handles every kind of ground and has been effective from 2m to 2m7f and over any Irish track so no problem at all for this kind of test and Rothwell has his yard in very good form (two thirds and a win with the last three runners saddled during the last week) and on board it's confirmed Declon Bates who is one of the best 5lb conditional jockeys in Ireland at the moment and was the rider of the winner saddled by Rothwell at Clonmel 3 days ago. The problems could be the 6lb rise since his last unlucky defeat (actually that shouldn't be a big problem for the way he ran off his former marks last twice) and the better company he has to face today. Among his today's opponents I think the main rivals could be these 5. Golanbrook who shows a very solid record over hurdles (2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 5th and 3rd in his 6 starts over hurdles since November) who could improve with the better ground (won a bumper over similar ground in very style 11 months ago at Punchestown) and cheekpieces replacing blinkers could give him another little help. Still he was a well beaten favourite last time out making his handicap debut off today's same mark. Sheer Genius who achieved his first ever win one month ago at Leopardstown over today's ground and has finished 3rd last time out here at Cork over 2m and 2nd before that win. An improving horse trained by JJ Murphy but his sole win came in a maiden as well as Golanbrook and is 2lb higher than lto when finished 3rd in his handicap debut even if the 3m seemed too much for him and the drop back in trip could help him a lot today. Carrigmartin won very well 11 months at Punchestown over fences off 8lb higher mark but his subsequent 3 efforts (2 over hurdles) have been very disappointing and even if the faster ground will surely help and his trainer Harty has had a nice winner at Navan last week he has still a lot to prove and could be one just one of the many underpriced horses wearing the green-gold of JP McManus even if it's evident that he stands a big chance if back to his best form. Hans Crescent won 6 races in 35 starts and his last success came in his second last start at Fairyhouse 5 weeks ago off 6lb lower and forgiving him his last poor run he surely stands still a good chance even from this higher mark. Shamiran is another solid horse in decent form but he has won only once in 29 starts under rules and would surely appreciate a softer surface. All in all a classic very crowded and complicated Irish handicap but I can't miss a shot at this price with my selection who has been too unlucky last twice and deserves another win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edberg Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April « 3:25 » Fairyhouse (IRE) SUN 8 APR 2012 INH STALLION OWNERS EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND NOVICE HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE B) (5yo+) Winner €32,500 Good 3m Number of runners: 23 CAIRDIN 2pts win @ 12/1 bog (Boylesports) Another very crowded and open handicap hurdle here where I like once again a chance of a horse that doesn't figure in the first 5 in the market at the moment. Cairdin is a very lightly raced 6yo trained by Margaret Mullins who has added to his nice record in bumpers (1 win and 2 seconds) a similar score over hurdles (1 win and 2 seconds) in his first three starts (all at the end of 2011). His win came over 2m6f at Punchestown and his last effort was at Leopardstown at the end of December over 2m when he narrowly lost beaten a neck by Star Of Aragon with Leah Claire (second behind Citizenship one month later over the same C&D in 50k handicap and now rated 119), Oscar Hill (twice winner since that race), 117-rated House Rules and many more decent horses who finished well behind Cairdin that day and that close second was a very unlucky one first of all because the 2m was a very short trip for Cairdin and second because Cairdin had made a big mistake at the third-last, which lost him the lead but stayed on very well and there is no doubt he will appreciate the 3m today. The horse has no problem of ground (that second was on good ground but his win came on heavy and his bumper win on good) and his trainer said that this was the target since that race and so he's had no problem but missed any race in between during this 3 months and a half just to be at the top for this rich Grade B handicap. There are plenty of good horses in this race of course but among the main dangerous I can't see anyone better treated off its current mark (for example Tom Horn, Jetson, even if he gets a 7lb claim, or Vesper Bell who is surely not experienced at all for this kind of races as his trainer underlined) or if the mark doesn't seem a problem there is a question mark of the trip (for example for Bullock Harbour and Seventhy Three). The main danger is imho Make A Track who was a bit unlucky at the Cheltenham Festival 3 weeks ago when finished 4th behind Attaglance in the Martin Pipe. Anyway he was well beaten by Leah Claire (in the 50k race won by Citizenship) and that collateral line gives a bit of advantage to my selection who is surely a bit overprices since back after a break and since it represents a very little stable while in this race there are horses wearing the colours of JP McManus, Gigginstown House Stud, trainers such as Jessica Harrington, Teddy Walsh, Dessie Hughes and Willie Mullins and all that should give a bit more value to my bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeCOSTANZA Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Towcester 2:40 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Thoresby (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 08/04/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 8.50 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Placed in 3 of the last 4 starts. 2nd of 9, 3rd fo 13, 3rd of 5, and 3rd of 9 from Boxing Day to a week ago. Dropped to a Class 5 for the first time since the 2nd of 9 effort on Boxing Day. Goes off top-weight today but he's still on his career low mark. Has one of the most consistent form on th card and should go well once more. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeCOSTANZA Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Towcester 3:40 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Nicks Power (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 08/04/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Paddy Power @ 21.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Winning Pointer and has shown promise over hurdles. The lightly raced 6yo have seen the hurdle course four times placing 2nd on debut at Uttoxeter. It's worth to follow today based trainer Robin Dickin's form the last 14 days; 2nd, 1st, 6th, 2nd. The selection is the only entry of the day from Dickin. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeCOSTANZA Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Towcester 3:40 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Mickmackmagoole (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 08/04/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 13.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] High hopes with the cheekpieces being refitted today. They were taken off last time out where he finished 6th of 8 by 26 lengths. Had a winning effort three runs ago with cheekpieces at Ffos Last at 2m last November. The 10yo will love the trip of 2m today. His lifetime form at the distance have 4 wins from 6 runs. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeCOSTANZA Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Plumpton 4:05 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Colins Desire (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 08/04/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 11.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Career best last time out (19 days) with a 3rd of 8 by 13 lengths at Execeter in a Class 4 Novices' Handicap Chase (3m). He was pulled up two runs ago so there are no more questions on his well being. Jockey Mr R G Henderson is booked once more. He began riding the selection two runs ago. I think looking at the form last time out the selection can win this race if he's in the same mood. After being outpaced from 4 out he stayed from from 3 out and eventaully took 3rd from the 2-1 favorite. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April 3.00 Plumpton - 4pts win Sawago @ 3/1 (PP) Extremely keen on this horse today who has conditions to suit and exposed rivals in the field. Noel Fehily returns on board of this one, on which he has registered a win, a second and a third from three attempts. His effort last time can safely be ignored over a three mile trip that was merely too far, and prior to that he met a very well-handicapped type who has stormed up the ratings since. I'm sure he's still not off a bad mark assuming he has his conditions - and he does today. Should take all the beating against some rivals who struggle to win, are weak in the finish and perhaps are too high in the handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April 2.40 Towcester - 3pts win Thoresby @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes) Ben Case's runner has to give plenty of weight away here seen as he's rated substantially higher than much of this field. However, he's still off a possibly reasonable mark of 95 and should be spot on now over fences having had two runs over the larger obstacles. He's clearly modest but he did show ability over hurdles and having made several mistakes on his chasing debut, he improved a lot to run a decent 3rd last time. He was beaten 15l or so but the horses in front of him and narrowly behind aren't bad types relatively speaking and the horses he runs against here are not as good as those and he should come on again for that effort. He stayed on well in the closing stages but is unlikely to get so far behind today and I think he has the quality to carry top weight around here to victory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April Sawago 3.00 Plumpton 7-2 William Hill I think Rupert has it spot on above. Sawago has been on my list to follow since hacking up when getting weight and has then run well off higher marks. It was sent out over 3m lto and that was just too far. Ground and trip should be fine and I'm not a fan of Watergate. Russian Conquest the main danger for me but I'm quite confident Sawago can take this and I really like Fehily as a jockey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April *Barrison - Towcester 5:20* A reproduction of the form of where it was 2nd to the talented Jimbill should see this horse figure here in this race. Faded after looking like a winner at Hereford last time out, but i will forgive it that run. Felix De Giles in my opinion is a terrific jockey, and i am willing to have an e/w punt at 18/1 which i find far too big. *2 Points e/w @ 18/1 VC BOG* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falbrav Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April MASTER TED 5.20 Towcester. 0.5 points each way. Stable does well enough in these races and vibes suggest that he's working well enough at home to figure here. Not a strong race and the price is there so well worth the risk. 20/1 Bet365 BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verisimilitude Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April It Wasn't Us 5.40 Plumpton. 1 point win. Needs to show a bit of improvement, but has it in him I think and the handicapper gives him every chance off a mark of 93. The trip and ground's not a concern and the others hardly set the world alight, so with every chance and being a decent price, he looks worth a bet. 8/1 Bet365 (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April Plumpton 435 – James Pollard 12/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes [/QUOTE] Winner! Bit late I know but I havent been able to get to my computer for a couple of days! Probably just as well now the flat season is properly kicking off! Congrats to GeorgeCostanza (and any other winners?) as that was a great shout on Nicks Power. I looked over that one myself, but thought I would give it a chance to prove himself as the runs after his Uttoxeter debut werent great. I dont normally look into trainer form too much, but its probably something I should start to do! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April Plumpton 435 – James Pollard 12/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes [/QUOTE] Winner! Bit late I know but I havent been able to get to my computer for a couple of days! Probably just as well now the flat season is properly kicking off! Congrats to GeorgeCostanza (and any other winners?) as that was a great shout on Nicks Power. I looked over that one myself, but thought I would give it a chance to prove himself as the runs after his Uttoxeter debut werent great. I dont normally look into trainer form too much, but its probably something I should start to do! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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