erhaab1965 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 According to Hill's online they took 50,000 bets on Kauto and 30,000 on Long Run . Personally I could not understand why he was 3/1 at the off. For me and a lot of my punting pals , Kauto could not win. So where did all this money come from to force it down to 3/1 ? In my opinion a lot of professional money would have been on Long Run with a little spread amongst the EW contenders. Do you think the Kauto was artificially shortened to get more mug money on , the professional opinion was that he would not win. I cannot see a lot of money for Kauto other than from casual small punters. It did occur to me before the race that they would do a " Istabraaq ". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? No, I thought Kauto couldn't win but was still a mug as I was on Long Run instead. :loon Seriously, I think many people just followed their hearts and had a last bet on Kauto. I know from a friend who makes a living with in-running trading and he had just for the emotions a very big bet on "his" legend Kauto Star... so I guess he wasn't the only one who had an emotional bet in the Gold Cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? The horse would have also carried alot of Anti post bets that was put down before the fall news broke out. He was a great horse but a horse i simply could not catch, the first time i backed him he fell, then the year i really fancied Denman but changed my bet for kauto Star Denam won the Gold Cup, if i remember right it was a sore one, we never forget the sore ones, i wrote out a betting slip the day before the GC race, i wrote out Denman to win and another slip for the F/C Denman 1st Kauto Star 2nd, i tore it up and changed it, the NEVER change your bet Rule should have kicked in but Failed. Sometimes bets can bite your arse at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? It's not hard to see why he was 3/1 come the off. Firstly, legend of a horse. He's captured the hearts of thousands and they'll back him regardless. Not just these people though, they'll tell people and they'll tell people. I had loads of friends telling me they were backing Kauto Star for the GC just because it's Kauto Star and they don't even know who he is or what he's achieved. Secondly, he clearly looked in top form on both completed runs this season. On figures they all had it to do to beat Long Run or Kauto. Now obviously with Kauto looking out of sorts last season his GC run was a cracker, and the general consensus was that even though the GC trip round Cheltenham isn't Kauto's strongest suit, he looked to be in better shape than last year he might've been able to turn the tables with LR once again. Taking it all into account, including the training fall, yes, 3/1 was atrocious value, but it really isn't difficult to see why he went off that price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? Hindsight is a wonderful thing Erhaab. If Kauto was 100% fit and brought his King George run to the table in the Gold Cup, i think he would have pissed in... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted March 19, 2012 Author Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? Hindsight is a wonderful thing Erhaab. If Kauto was 100% fit and brought his King George run to the table in the Gold Cup, i think he would have pissed in... If he couldn't win aged 11 then what chance did he have aged 12 ? One calendar year is the equivalent to 3 horse years . Did anybody on here put a chunky bet on him ? Especially after the delayed news that he had a training accident . Anybody agree he was an artificially low price ? Any ante post liabilities will be negligible compared to what is taken on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? He was pulled up after about 3 fences. The horse was clearly not right... I bet you thought he had no hope of winning the King George too, as i said, a hindsight merchant. Didn't see you come on here and say he wouldn't win before the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? I think if a horse has taken your heart you should stick with it right to the end. I mean Kauto Star won the Betfair at odds of 6/1 - He then won the King George at odds of 3/1 they can only be at the top for so long, but anybody that stayed 100% loyal with him in the journey cant really complain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? I backed him at 8/1 for the Betfair and 7/2 for the King George... Strangely i backed Synchronised for the Gold Cup, as i didn't feel Kauto was fully fit and thought Long Run was gone backwards from last year, so i got lucky... However i do think a fully fit Kauto would have won this Gold Cup, even at 12. Come on, he surely has a big advantage over The Giant Bolster, he would normally finish 2 fences ahead of it... Was a strange Gold Cup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? He was pulled up after about 3 fences. The horse was clearly not right... I bet you thought he had no hope of winning the King George too' date=' as i said, a hindsight merchant. Didn't see you come on here and say he wouldn't win before the race.[/quote'] I'm not really debating about whether Kauto had a realistic chance or not just whether the bookies artificially had him at 3/1 when in my opinion there was not a lot of real money from hardcore racing gamblers. Do you think Ruby Walsh's instructions were to preserve the horse if there was no chance of winning ? Hence doing an " Istabraaq ". What do you mean by " The horse was clearly not right..." Paul Nicholls assured us he was 100% fit , so did Paul Nicholls lead punters down the wrong garden path ? Again.. Lastly , I did back Kauto in the King George , a chunky bet at 5/1 and 4/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? Well I didn't back it myself But what price do you think kauto should have been, 10-1? Do you think the giant bolster or syncronised should have been 3-1?.long run was the favourite and kauto star had easily beaten long run twice this season winning top class races?.there didn't seem to be on paper a horse to put it up to those two based on form therefore surely the prices where correct going to post based on 2012 runs. Kauto had a problem , simple as that ,maybe age has caught up to it.I always thought kauto didn't particularly like cheltenham track but was so classy was good enough to win 2 gold cups.but I thought when den man ran in them it set such a gallop that kauto didn't like it all.in this years race though it was clear there was big problems early however the sp was correct imoO,of course all too easy to analyze post race I believe kauto was well supported on course as was sycronized.as for trainer knowing something was wrong,I doubt when horses pull up with problems the trainer knew before hand it would happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? I'm not really debating about whether Kauto had a realistic chance or not just whether the bookies artificially had him at 3/1 when in my opinion there was not a lot of real money from hardcore racing gamblers. Do you think Ruby Walsh's instructions were to preserve the horse if there was no chance of winning ? Hence doing an " Istabraaq ". What do you mean by " The horse was clearly not right..." Paul Nicholls assured us he was 100% fit , so did Paul Nicholls lead punters down the wrong garden path ? Again.. Lastly , I did back Kauto in the King George , a chunky bet at 5/1 and 4/1. Don't believe you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? Don't believe you. What is there not to believe ? It was a seemingly weak King George after what we witnessed in the Betfair Chase , you either fancied Kauto to confirm the Betfair Chase form or you took the evens about Long Run. I chose the former. Do you believe Hill's took 50,000 bets on Kauto last week online and only 30,000 bets on Long Run ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? I think the bookies were not taking any chances but i feel the 3/1 was fair, just IMO. But nobody really knows until the big race day just what will happen, if Kauto Star could talk maybe he would have turned round to Mr Nicholls and said...........Listen paul would you mind if i just gave today a miss, that was a sore one i took the other day and am still not feeling 100%, but listen you and Ruby have a nice time and if i feel better in the future and feel like a run round a track again with some jumping i'll give you a shout. Paul Nicholls told the public about the fall, be it late or not, the bookies chalked up 3/1 and it was the punter who had the option of taking it or passing. How can anybody put down a bet on a horse that's took a bad fall a short time before a Gold Cup, the writing was on the wall, some saw it, some didn't. Its just a shame what happened with his fall, we will never know how things could of or should have went had he been 100% Just look at Best Mate, he came back and died on the course, am pretty sure that came as a massive shock to her, but who knew that day when they set out from the yard they would come back with an empty horsebox. We never really know until it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? What is there not to believe ? It was a seemingly weak King George after what we witnessed in the Betfair Chase , you either fancied Kauto to confirm the Betfair Chase form or you took the evens about Long Run. I chose the former. Do you believe Hill's took 50,000 bets on Kauto last week online and only 30,000 bets on Long Run ? There are a lot of people out there that bet with their hearts for sentimental reasons, so yes i do think 50,000 bets were placed on Kauto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? If I recall correctly Best Mate hardly ever raced once he won his 1st Gold Cup . The horse was probably never fully fit most of the time. So it came as no real shock that the horse had a heart attack when tackling the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal debut over a distance a few yards over the minimum trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? Things in life just happen erhaab, life has no set rules. I think Paul Nicholls was in a no win situation, stuck between a rock and a hard place, if he had not run Kauto Star all the Anti Post punters would have had their say about it. Its a very funny game at times fella, but we all have a choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? There are a lot of people out there that bet with their hearts for sentimental reasons' date=' so yes i do think 50,000 bets were placed on Kauto.[/quote'] Online gamblers tend to be more hardcore rather than your casual recreational guy who likes a flutter , it is these punters who i cannot believe are responsible for the price crash in Kauto. This is the crux of my argument. Maybe I've got it completely wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? I think a lot of people go online for most things now and betting is one of them. I would imagine those recreational punters having a bet on the Gold Cup also bet on other sports as well. I can quite believe that Kauto had more bets on him than Long Run. I backed Kauto e/w because if he was well then he would have been in the three. As it happened he obviously hadnt got over his fall but I guess I hoped he had and with Kauto I do think anything is possible. If he were mine I would give him one more run in the King George. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Re: Did anyone back Kauto Star ? I think if the Kauto from the King George had turned up he would've gone very close. The Gold Cup wasn't that much stronger than the "weak" King George was it? I dont think professional money was on Long Run, best backed horse was the winner for me. Some great after timing here PS I backed the winner at 14/1. How's that for after timing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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