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Cheltenham 2005


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Re: Cheltenham 2005

1st Farmer Jack 9R Johnson 12-1
11 6P Hobbs
Always prominent, led 8th until 13th, ridden after 3 out, led again last, stayed on well Opened 12/1, touched 14/1
2nd 1½ l Strong Flow (IRE) 8R Walsh 2-1
11 6P Nicholls
Disputed lead until led 6th, headed 8th, with leader until led 13th, ridden 2 out, headed last, not quicken flat Opened 5/2 £5000-£2000, £1000-£400, £750-£300, £4500-£2000, £2250-£1000, £1350-£600, £900-£400(x2), £1600-£800, £1200-£600, £1000-£500(x3)
3rd hd Celestial Gold (IRE) 7T J Murphy 2-1
11 6M Pipe
Held up and keen early, headway 13th, disputed 2nd from 3 out, close 3rd when slightly short of room just after last, switched right and not quicken flat Opened 15/8, touched 5/2 £5000-£2000, £2500-£1000, £4500-£2000, £2250-£1000, £1125-£500, £900-£400(x2), £8000-£4000, £2000-£1000, £1000-£500(x2), £800-£400
4th 14l Sir Rembrandt (IRE) 9A Thornton 6-1
11 6R Alner
Held up in touch, headway 11th, ridden when short of room on bend approaching 4 out, soon no impression Opened 9/2, touched 6/1
Saturdays big chase was the AON chase at Newbury. Could not get enthused by the outcome here with Farmer Jack winning off levels after jumping impressively. Newbury is not Cheltenham & I would expect that Strong Flow would put up a better account in the Gold Cup as this was only it's 2nd prep run of the season & only just got headed over the last by the resurgent farmer jack.
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Saturdays big race was the Totesport Trophy at Newbury:

1st Essex (IRE) 5B J Geraghty 4-1
11 6M O'Brien
Always prominent, challenged from 3 out, shaken up to lead last, ridden clear flat, comfortably Opened 11/2, touched 6/1 £3000-£500, £22000-£4000, £11000-£2000(x2), £5500-£1000(x2), £5000-£1000(x5), £2500-£500 each way, £2500-£500, £9000-£2000, including office money
2nd 3l Bongo Fury (FR) 6T Scudamore 33-1
10 3M Pipe
Chased leaders, led approaching 3 out, headed last, just held on for 2nd
3rd hd Al Eile (IRE) 5J Culloty 10-1
11 0John Queally
Held up, pushed along and well behind 4 out, still plenty to do 2 out, ran on from last, just failed for 2nd Opened 12/1 £12000-£1000, £6000-£500(x2), £10000-£1000(x2) each way, £10000-£1000
4th 1¼ l Hawadeth 10Miss N Carberry(7) 40-1
11 2V Dartnall
Prominent, lost place briefly after 4th, jumped left 3 out, stayed on flat Opened 50/1
5th 2l Power Elite (IRE) 5P Carberry 12-1
11 1N Meade
Held up in rear, hit 1st, ridden and headway approaching 2 out, no extra flat Opened 11/1, touched 12/1
6th 1l Idole First (IRE) 6A O'Keeffe 20-1
10 3Miss Venetia Williams
Chased leader, ridden and every chance 4 out, 3rd and beaten when mistake last, no extra Opened 25/1
7th sh Fenix (GER) 6L Aspell 40-1
10 0Mrs L Wadham
Held up in rear, headway approaching 3 out, stayed on from last, not trouble leaders
8th sh Tamarinbleu (FR) 5A P McCoy 11-2
11 4M Pipe
Held up in rear, headway 4 out, weakened flat Opened 13/2 £13000-£2000(x2), £10000-£1500 each way, £3250-£500
9th 1½ l Roman Ark 7F King(3) 7-1
10 4J Jefferson
Held up in touch, pushed along from 3 out, one pace when mistake last Opened 7/1, touched 8/1 £8000-£10000, £5000-£700
10th hd Monte Cinto (FR) 5R Walsh 11-1
10 3P Nicholls
Held up, headway after 2 out, never on terms Opened 12/1
although essex put up a great performance to win off a big weight & is an improving type, whether it can now go on to the champion hurdle is a difficult task. It has now taken two valuable handicap prizes & i dont expect they'll settle for a handicap at Cheltenham? i tend to use this race for the handicap hurdles at Cheltenham & will be interested to see how the 10 horses above take their chances at the festival. They are all on my list now to consider for backing at the meeting dependent on price etc.
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 martin - i dont know too much about Justified, havent studied the race in detail yet but will see what i can find out. Jake - havent got anything else on Harchibald as yet apart from the press release saying they will work it on gallops at leopardstown next week. I wouldnt advise anyone on how to bet & if you are up on the race, you may not be bothered. Laying half of it may give you a free bet on one of the others?

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 did anyone see this race?

1st The Bajan Bandit (IRE) 10A Dobbin 10-1
11 10L Lungo
Held up in mid-division, headway 7th, ridden to challenge 2 out, led approaching last, ran on
2nd 6l Hirvine (FR) 7T Greenway(5) 10-1
11 10P Bowen
Prominent, led after 3 out, headed approaching last, weakened flat Opened 12/1
3rd 2½ l Carlys Quest 11K Mercer(3) 8-1
11 8Ferdy Murphy
Held up, outpaced 4 out, ridden and stayed on from 2 out
4th 3½ l Sharp Belline (IRE) 8T Halliday(10) 16-1
10 4Mrs S Smith
Led, hit 3rd, clear approaching 4th, headed after 3 out, weakened approaching last
5th 2½ l Ravenswood (IRE) 8T J Murphy 12-1
10 12M Pipe
Held up, headway 4 out, ridden after next, no impression
The horse in question is Ravenswood. Now I watched the race from about 1m from home, Murphy had the horse covered up on the outside in about 8th position, jumped every hurdle with ease, started to make headway without being knocked about, ran on. That would have been my write up, the write up in the Sporting life above is Bollocks. The horse had not ran for 711 days that nearly 2 years!! Still only 8, i would expect that owner David Johnson has a nice hurdle race in mind for Cheltenham & Murphy was told not to finish too close as he definitely had it held up behind fitter horses. Notebook : Ravenswood
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Re: Cheltenham 2005

when it comes to cheltenham festival time, take a look back at this race today. i have highlighted the stragglers & not one really had a race. Will be thinking that certain handicap marks are being reduced especially with the pipe runners.
9th 5l :'>Whereareyounow (IRE) 8C Llewellyn 7-1
10 3N Twiston-Davies
Chased leader to 10th, gradually lost place Opened 8/1 £10000-£1200 each way, £2500-£300 each way, £7000-£1000
10th 6l :'>Europa 9G Lee 15-2
10 9Ferdy Murphy
Behind, reminders 7th, never going well and no chance after Opened 7/1, touched 8/1 £4000-£500, £2400-£300
11th 1¾ l :'>Brooklyn Breeze (IRE) 8A Dobbin 12-1
10 6L Lungo
Held up in rear, effort and just in touch on outside when blundered 3 out, not recover and eased after
12th 1¾ l :'>Latitude (FR) 6R Greene 50-1
10 0M Pipe
Mid-division, weakened and well behind 4 out
13th 28l :'>Redemption 10A P McCoy 15-2
11 3N Twiston-Davies
Not fluent, blundered 6th, always behind Opened 8/1
14th 4l :'>Iznogoud (FR) 9T J Murphy 16-1
10 13M Pipe
In touch, lost place 11th, soon well behind
15th 8l :'>Jakari (FR) 8A Thornton 20-1
11 0H Daly
Chased leaders, not fluent 8th, weakened before 4 out £5000-£250
Pulled Up :'>Mondial Jack (FR) 6T Scudamore 33-1
10 10M Pipe
Never going well in rear, mistake and tailed off 10th, pulled up before 4
just some pointers for the festival when it comes to finding those big priced winners. By not winning today they avoid going up in the handicap & have gained a bit of course experience at the same time. These are now in my notebook but will re-oppose when it comes to the festival in 1 or 2 races.
remember this post from a month or so ago, this week Brooklyn Breeze was an unlucky 3rd at sandown & Whereareyounow bolted up in big race at uttoxeter. deffo non triers at Cheltenham that day, still use this race for future winners.
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 guys, yet another spotted yesterday.

8th ½l Maximize (IRE) 11Mr A Glassonbury(7) 50-1
10 9M Pipe
Chased leaders, lost place approaching 15th Opened 50/1
Jockey had this covered up all the way, could never win a race of this quality so Pipe only had it there to keep it fit. Won at 33/1 at last years festival which is a major pointer to getting on it this year. May go for an amateurs race so keep a look out. I watched it all the way round, & it had a lovely ride for 1st 2miles, jumped every fence well & was always within 5 or 6 lengths of the leaders, when the race hotted up the jockey simply eased it back. Was beaten about 33l in total, but did not try after 2m 4f. Notebook: Maximise
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Ok, a few posts today to keep the pulses racing! My notbook so far is: Back in Front (11-2 advised ew) Hardy Eustace (5-1 advised ew) Rooster Booster (12/1 advised ew) Golden Alpha (awaiting entry details) Ollie Magern (5/1 advised) War of Attrition (10/1 advised) Foreman (66/1 advised in Champ hurdle ew) Ravenswood (awaiting entry details) Maximise (awaiting entry details) plus other horses who finished down the field in the Totegold trophy & the race at cheltenham mentioned in previous posts. my bets are so far: Kicking King @ 10/1 Gold Cup (now 8/1) Back in front 5/1 Ch Hur (now 9/2) Carte Diamond 25/1 triumph (now 20/1) Jazz d'estruval 14/1 R&SA chase (now 16/1) Earthmover 16/1 Foxhunters (still 16/1) permed in doubles. Kicking King @ 9/1 (now 8/1) Brave Inca @ 8/1 Champion Hur (still 8/1) War of Attrition @ 7/1 Arkle (now 9/2) Mephisto @ 25/1 R&SA Nov Hur (now 14/1) EW yankee

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 champion hurdle entries confirmed today, withdrawals below: The 14 horses withdrawn were Ansar, Big Moment, Cerium, Compton Bolter, Copeland, Foreman, Georges Girl, Ilnamar, Marcel, Perouse, Rigmarole, Sign Of The Wolf, Solerina, The French Furze. There goes my ew bet on Foreman. Will now back him for the arkle if he runs.

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 I'm seeing nothing to stop me fancying Back In Front stronger than any Cheltenham fancy I've ever had. I've waded in 3 times now and stand to win (or lose :lol ) a shitload whatever happens. Just think he has great course and distance form, and is the best of the Irish challengers. Still 9/2 :eek at Stanleys, tempted to take some more, should be 5/2f imo :\

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 i think it will be a great race better than most Champion Hurdles of the past with Hardy Eustace also standing a great chance. The likes of Essex in there too will make for an interesting race. i certainly do not think it's a one horse race though. These horses ares so slosley matched, it will depend on who comes up the hill & i dont think it'll be Harchibald. 17 days to the off:\

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Penzance won easily enough today albeit did not face the Etentard Indien (NR) but beat the 2 Hobbs horses easily enough on testing ground. Will go to Cheltenham with a favs chance in the triumph if the trainers avoids the supreme novices hurdle. As low as 6/1 with Ladbrokes. Take the 10's at Vict Chandler on offer. Ante post selection Penzance 10/1 Triumph hurdle V Chandler

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Re: Cheltenham 2005

The horse in question is Ravenswood. Now I watched the race from about 1m from home, Murphy had the horse covered up on the outside in about 8th position, jumped every hurdle with ease, started to make headway without being knocked about, ran on. That would have been my write up, the write up in the Sporting life above is Bollocks. The horse had not ran for 711 days that nearly 2 years!! Still only 8, i would expect that owner David Johnson has a nice hurdle race in mind for Cheltenham & Murphy was told not to finish too close as he definitely had it held up behind fitter horses. Notebook : Ravenswood
just seen odds for the pertemps final - RAVENSWOOD has been installed as 10/1 Fav!! wasnt just me that saw this then!!
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Kicking King is out of the festival this year. Details on the various sites - sporting life.com etc Had it in some of my long range ante post bets. Now that it is out, Our Vic looks to have the Daily Telegraph chase at it's mercy but will now be a fair bit shorter. Now 9/4 ante post & as low as 7/4. Although Tiutchev at around 20/1 maybe worth a nibble. I will start looking at that race in the next few days.

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Top jockey prices are now out. Reading the RFO this week, they highlight that the top current jockey at Cheltenham over the last 5 festivals is......Richard Johnson with 11 wins from 74 rides. McCoy only has 6 from 78 as he quite often has a bad festival. Previous winners are: 04 Ruby Walsh 03 Barry Geraghty 02 R Johnson 00 M Fitzgerald 99 M Fitzgerald 98 Mccoy 97 Mccoy Prices are: Walsh 5-2, Murphy 3-1, Gergahty 5-1, Mccoy 6/1, Johnson 16/1 (lads). Just for interest sake, the 16/1 offered by Ladbrokes on Johnson is way off the mark as he is 10's elsewhere. Culloty is prob best of the outsiders if you think Best mate will win (25/1) Top Jock bet: R Johnson at 16/1 Ladbrokes Johnson will have a fair book of rides again this year with Hobbs bound to have a few runners. He also gets some spare rides from other stables.

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 My updated notebook so far is: Back in Front (11-2 advised ew) Hardy Eustace (5-1 advised ew) Rooster Booster (12/1 advised ew) Golden Alpha (awaiting entry details) Ollie Magern (5/1 advised) War of Attrition (10/1 advised) Foreman (66/1 advised in Champ hurdle ew) - Non Runner Ravenswood (awaiting entry details) now 8/1 fav for Pertemps final Maximise (awaiting entry details) Penzance 10/1 advised Tiutchev 16/1 advised Top Jock Richard Johnson 16/1 advised plus other horses who finished down the field in the Totegold trophy & the race at cheltenham mentioned in previous posts. my bets are so far: Kicking King @ 10/1 Gold Cup (now 8/1) - NR:wall Back in front 5/1 Ch Hur (now 4/1) Carte Diamond 25/1 triumph (now 14/1) Jazz d'estruval 14/1 R&SA chase (now 16/1) Earthmover 16/1 Foxhunters (now 14/1) permed in doubles. Kicking King @ 9/1 (now 8/1) - NR :wall Brave Inca @ 8/1 Champion Hur (still 8/1) War of Attrition @ 7/1 Arkle (now 4/1) Mephisto @ 25/1 R&SA Nov Hur (now 12/1) EW yankee

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 I have looked at the last three festivals and am sure if I kept going back there would be very similar results. What this shows is that it is fairly important to be going into Cheltenham in winning form, but if not winning at least placed. 2004 Winners Pre cheltenham placing TUESDAY Brave Inca 1st Well Chief 1st Hardy Eustace 2nd Fork Lightning 1st Maximize 9th Creon 6th WEDNESDAY Fundamentalist 2nd Rule Supreme 2nd Azertyuiop 1st Monkerhostin 1st Native Emperor 2nd Tikram 1st Total Enjoyment 1st THURSDAY Made In Japan 1st Iris´s Gift 2nd Best Mate 1st Earthmover 2nd St Pirran F Our Armageddon 1st (PU in Arkle) Sporazene 8th 10 1st 6 2nd 0 3rd So out of 19 races, 16 winners came into Cheltenham on the back of a win or second place. 2003 Winners Pre cheltenham placing TUESDAY Back In Front 1st Azertyuiop 1st Rooster Booster 1st Youlneverwalkalone 1st Royal Predica 9th Inching Closer 1st WEDNESDAY Hardy Eustace 2nd One Knight 1st Moscow Flyer 1st Xenophon 1st Sudden Shock 2nd Young Spartacus No run in season Liberman 2nd THURSDAY Spectroscope 1st Baracouda 2nd Best Mate 1st Kingscliff 1st Palarshan 1st La Landiere 1st Spirit Leader 1st 14 1st 3 2nd 0 3rd So out of 19 races, 17 winners came into Cheltenham on the back of a win or second place. 2002 Winners Pre cheltenham placing TUESDAY Like-A-Butterfly 1st Moscow Flyer F Hors La Loi Iii 1st Frenchman´s Creek 3rd The Bushkeeper 1st Freetown 1st WEDNESDAY Galileo 1st Flagship Uberalles 1st Ilnamar U Hussard Collonges 2nd Rith Dubh 2nd Blowing Wind 5th Pizarro 1st THURSDAY Scolardy 2nd Baracouda 1st Best Mate 2nd Last Option 3rd Fadoudal Du Cochet 1st Royal Auclair 1st Rooster Booster 2nd 10 1st 5 2nd 2 3rd So out of 19 races, 17 winners came into Cheltenham on the back of a win or second or third place. These stats are something that cannot be disregarded when making your selections. There is some big priced winners amongst these, and they came into the festival on winning form also. Just put this up as a little helping hand.

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 cheers aidybhoy. i havent really got into the full stats package yet. Aykay has posted a full set of trends which i will use to DISCOUNT horses & see what else is left. Having a 1/2/3 LTO after their name will now undoubtably be another trend to check for. Prob with the festival is that there are lots of horses with good previosu placed/winning form. keep posting.

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Running the Champion Hurdle throught the trends brings up 1 or 2 at nice prices. Firstly Inglis Drever, he won his last race, has some experience and Cheltenham and is a 6 yr old which all looks good by the stats. Is he likely to be running here though or in the Stayers? Available around 20/1. The other was Self Defense, going into the race of the back of a win(over Rooster Booster) and has had experience at Cheltenham including one win. May be worth a dabble e/w at prices around 33/1. If we're looking for horses that won LTO we're only left with 7 for this race so an e/w bet on each of these could be worthwhile.

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 I'll leave it here aidybhoy, its not doing any harm and makes interesting reading anyway. Big priced horses regularly make the frame in the Champion Hurdle so WFTE's post is interesting. Having looked at the trends myself, i found they strengthened the cases for market leaders Harchibald and Back in Front, which wasnt very exciting :(

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Still looking at this - what a race! It's going to be one of the best Champion Hurdles for years i reckon :) Does anyone have any views on ACCORDION ETOILE, who to me looks a shade overpriced at 12/1? Strictly speaking he should be struck off the shortlist due to finishing 5th in his last race but that was on heavy ground, a surface he simply doesnt act on. It was suggested in the racing posts write up of the race that it was basically being used to bring the horse closer to fitness anyway. On better ground (which he is likely to encounter at the Festival) is record is pretty impressive and puts him right in the reckoning. He has won at Cheltenham which is a plus (beating Rooster Booster) and has previously finished 20 lengths in front of ante post favourite Harchibald in Ireland (ableit on Harchibalds seasonal reappearance). I cant make my mind up on this one, im not convinced enough to have a bet but he did catch my eye. Oh yes and his 6 years old , which as WFTE points out above is a bonus, as the trends also indicate.

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Excellent reading gents. Just nicked from RP site. TRAINER Noel Meade expressed himself "disappointed" after Smurfit Champion Hurdle favourite Harchibald failed to fire in a workout after racing at Navan on Saturday. The six-year-old, who leads a very strong Irish challenge for the championship event on March 15, was accompanied by four other horses, including three who are Cheltenham-bound. All three - Wild Passion, Sir Oj and Watson Lake - finished in front of Harchibald at the end of the work over a mile and three-quarters on soft ground, with the quartet covered by about five lengths. Navan-based Meade said: "I was disappointed. He seemed to tire and empty. He worked exceptionally well in Fairyhouse a fortnight ago, but not here. "I would love to be able to say he worked well, but he didn't. We'll have to see how he is tomorrow." Harchibald is a best-priced 4-1 for the Cheltenham contest, for which the top seven in the betting are all trained in Ireland. He has won his last three races impressively, beating former champion Rooster Booster a length and a half in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his most recent outing on Boxing Day. He has been partnered by Paul Carberry in all his races this season, but the jockey suffered bruising in a fall out hunting on Friday and missed his rides on Saturday. Harchibald was ridden by former jockey Peter Kavanagh in Sunday's workout. Meade had originally signalled his intention to give Harchibald a gallop at Leopardstown on Sunday, but that meeting isthe subject of an inspection in the morning. All the best, Khartoum.

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Re: Cheltenham 2005 Cheers AK. I always look in here, but to be honest I'm more of a flat man myself, so I have trouble following the jumps, but I love Cheltenham. Not going this year, yet. If I can nick a few quid might get down there for the Friday. Wasted a few quid watching a load of shit in Munich. All the best, Khartoum.

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