Aykay1 Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Wasted a few quid watching a load of shit in Munich. I have no idea what you are talking about - erased from my memory! Anyway, back on topic.....further to your previous post about Harchibald, there's a rumour going around on EBA that he may not run :eek Time for a wager perhaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 5, 2005 Share Posted March 5, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Harchibald 10.0 on betfair :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 5, 2005 Author Share Posted March 5, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 there is one doing the rounds, heard it last night via a good source. Notice it slightly on the drift with BinF coming in for more support (4s in places). if i hear more, i'll post it. hate to say, i may have been right a couple of weeks ago. It was deffo a negative on a lot of peoples' books & my concern was the lack of a run since xmas. Only strengthens the others, cant see the betting changing much with BinF & Hardy around 7/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 6, 2005 Share Posted March 6, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 There's this on the RP site. TRAINER Noel Meade expressed himself "disappointed" after Smurfit Champion Hurdle favourite Harchibald failed to fire in a workout after racing at Navan on Saturday. The six-year-old, who leads a very strong Irish challenge for the championship event on March 15, was accompanied by four other horses, including three who are Cheltenham-bound. All three - Wild Passion, Sir Oj and Watson Lake - finished in front of Harchibald at the end of the work over a mile and three-quarters on soft ground, with the quartet covered by about five lengths. Navan-based Meade said: "I was disappointed. He seemed to tire and empty. He worked exceptionally well in Fairyhouse a fortnight ago, but not here. "I would love to be able to say he worked well, but he didn't. We'll have to see how he is tomorrow." Harchibald is a best-priced 4-1 for the Cheltenham contest, for which the top seven in the betting are all trained in Ireland. He has won his last three races impressively, beating former champion Rooster Booster a length and a half in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his most recent outing on Boxing Day. He has been partnered by Paul Carberry in all his races this season, but the jockey suffered bruising in a fall out hunting on Friday and missed his rides on Saturday. Harchibald was ridden by former jockey Peter Kavanagh in Sunday's workout. Meade had originally signalled his intention to give Harchibald a gallop at Leopardstown on Sunday, but that meeting isthe subject of an inspection in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 7, 2005 Author Share Posted March 7, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 we are now just a week away from the best (or worst;) ) week of the year. lots of factors now coming in from trainers with injury reports/weights published/jockey plans/trainers views etc I suggest you keep up to date with a visit to sportinglife.com or RP site etc as we cant keep up with all the info on here. my copy of inside edge came today which was a slight disappointment with them tipping Kicking King & Celtic Son amongst others, both of which have been withdrawn over a week or so ago. i assume distribution deadlines means that the piece was prob written early Feb, so you cannot take it as up to date. I am hoping to have a strategy in place for the festival punting wise with possibly 2 selections per race i.e could be level stakes on each or 75/25%. Each year i manage a few winners but when i look back think i could have made more money with better staking. An opinion is a NAP selection say taking 50% of your stake money, theory being #25 on a 3-1 shot is better than #10 on 6 selections & then you still only get the nap come up. The risk there is that you could have a 25-1 winner elsewhere & your nap could fall at the first fence!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 7, 2005 Author Share Posted March 7, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Read an article tonight from Graham Lee who talked up the chances of Howard-Johnson's horse in the festival bumper - LENNON. Ladbrokes are still offering 20/1 others are 14/16-1. The horse has done nothing wrong in its races so far. A race which the irish have a strong hand in, but perhaps this will be one for the shake up & i'll take an each way bet. Ante post: LENNON @ 20/1 Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khartoum Posted March 7, 2005 Share Posted March 7, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Going at Cheltenham currently Good to Soft & the weather forecast over the next few days little chance of rain. http://www.turftrax.co.uk/GoingReports/Cheltenham/Reports/ttlatest.htm All the best Khartoum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 9, 2005 Author Share Posted March 9, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 looks like Kicking King may be back after all. Not sure if this was just a tactic or not? but they seem ok with it now. Poor punter that laid 1000/1 on betfair 2 days ago. :sad Bought the weekender today packed full of Cheltenham info & worth a read. Hope to have some selections in the bag by Sunday after a heavy weekend studying (oh, apart from the usual distraction of watching QPR on sat!). Heard another thing about Azertyioup today that it's unbeaten at Cheltenham which is another pointer to the race. Not sure how many times it has ran there but certainly at least 4 times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Poor punter my ass, serves them right for trying to earn money off something they thought was a cert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkbench Rovers Posted March 9, 2005 Share Posted March 9, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 hello gents. all good reading. what are ur thoughts to kicking off the week with a winner in the supreme novices. Reckon the ground is going to be just be on the slow side of good but dont think thats enough for Justified to be the price that it is. My way de solzen appeals more at e/w following the rules on the trends posted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 10, 2005 Author Share Posted March 10, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 i intend to post some in depth analysis on each race the day before once i have the decs to hand. The supreme novces hurdle has seen an irish winner in 7 of last 10 runnings & the last 4. I am looking at the chances of: Marcel My way de solzen Royal paradise Ambobo (will prob go for the other race) Roman Ark (unplaced LTO) 7yo Chilling place Pole star 7yo wild passion 4th LTO Queen astrid Justified Royal Hector (unplaced LTO) Cerium 4yo I want to check the ratings & how this has affected the result over last 5-10 years. These are the top rated horses in the race & i think the winner will come from the list above. Some negatives against the stats are detailed above next to the horses name. I like Royal paradise & Queen Astrid to date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bingers Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Now with Best Mate out the Gold Cup is extremely open, My fancy now is Beef or Salmon. Ran well when beating Best mate in Ireland and has always ran a fair race at Cheltenham. 11/2 i think is a cracking price as he must be nailed on to get a place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkbench Rovers Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 I like Royal Paradise as well but i reckon he'll probably go for the sun alliance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkbench Rovers Posted March 10, 2005 Share Posted March 10, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 On RP site Quote.. I think I will be available to ride him and I would say the SunAlliance rather than the Supreme Novices’. He’s got the speed for the two-mile race but he hasn’t got an aggressive turn of foot. He’s a real staying type. - Mick Fitzgerald, jockey; Good ground will be a help at Cheltenham, where he should jump better. He is in both the novices’ hurdles but the chances are that he will go for the SunAlliance, and I think owner Pat Delaney has already had a few pounds on him in that race. What I’m looking forward to is the horse going over fences and I just hope we are all able to stay alive for a couple of years! - Tom Foley, trainer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkbench Rovers Posted March 11, 2005 Share Posted March 11, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Publican may be another to add to the list of possibles. Not sure if his rating is up there for your original list so will be interested to see what you discover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatman Posted March 11, 2005 Share Posted March 11, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 I'm off on holiday tommorow - (to Austria) so i'm forced to place my cheltenham bets earlier than usual. I'm going big on the Moscow Flyer/Barcacouda double (5.77 sportingodds). Now that Best Mate's out of the gold cup - it gives a great chance for everyone. My pick now is Kingscliff. Good luck to everyone for their cheltanham bets:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted March 11, 2005 Share Posted March 11, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Justified for me, 80 and 90% chance of rain Sunday/Monday which will suit perfectly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkbench Rovers Posted March 12, 2005 Share Posted March 12, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 could definitely do with some rain for some of my other fancies but looking at the beeb forecast im not so sure. Going is already now good good /soft in places http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=2027 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khartoum Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Another fav to go. Reports say Ambobo to miss Cheltenham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Add Ollie Magern to the "non running favourites" list Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 1st race Tuesday Supreme Novices Hurdle Trend pointers 5 or 6 yo 1st / 2nd LTO Flat bred Irish 1st 4 in betting Just taking the 1st 2 of the above into consideration, we are left with: 1 4F-001 Akhtari (IRE) 5 11 7 D Hughes 28 7 240-112 Cherub (GER) 5 11 7 Jonjo O'Neill 88 9 131 Dusky Warbler 6 11 7 G L Moore J E Moore28 10 212411 Justified (IRE) 6 11 7 E Sheehy 44 13 511 Manorson (IRE) 6 11 7 O Sherwood J A McCarthy42 15 P21151 My Way de Solzen (FR) 5 11 7 A King 30 16 410-F11 Only Vintage (USA) 5 11 7 Miss H Knight J Culloty69 17 2 Perfect Storm M Pipe 6 11 7 18 122 Prins Willem (IRE) 6 11 7 J Fanshawe 31 D 19 313131 Publican (IRE) 5 11 7 P Fahy 23 21 4-11311 Royal Paradise (FR) 5 11 7 Thomas Foley 37 23 32412 Stan (NZ) 6 11 7 R Guest 24 1-111 Villon (IRE) 6 11 7 L Lungo A Dobbin 28 11 Queen Astrid (IRE) 5 11 0 D Weld 12 You are then left with the factors of the other trends. There are 5 irish trained horses above. Most are flat bred although not sure about all. 1st 4 in the beeting obviously narrows the case even further with only Justified & Publican in that position both of whom are irish trained, therefore trend wise (if you apply all) Justified & Publican stand the best chance of winning. I know it isnt that easy!! I have still to mae my mind up from: Royal Paradise, Publican, Justified, My Way De Solzen, Queen Astrid. Interesting M Pipe runner Perfect storm completely unexposed with only 1 run to date & 66/1 in most lists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Some interesting pointers here bowles .Are you considering doing this for each race? I would be very gratful. Cheers having an e.w. on Perfect Storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Brookes i have narrowed down the fields for the Champion Hurdle and William Hill Chase on teh Tuesday and the R&SA Chase & Queen Mother on the Wednesday. I'll post in a bit unless Bowles beats me to it! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 i intend to give it a go, dependant on time. AK can do the 2 races he says he is doing. I am doing it anyway this year & will post as much info as possible. I am off work all week & hope to post the info the nigjt before or by 10am of the morning of the race. Cheers Guys PS the trends are based on the winner, not each way bets so i would say anything could be placed & therefore e/w selectors should not be discouraged by these stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 Bowles, how can you tell if a horse is flat bred or NH bred? I'm struggling with this stat a little :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 i will check later when I ask my Dad who knows breeding inside out. If you use the sporting life site it tells you what the breeding is, but lots of the names are not familar to me so they could be Irish, American, German etc. I would hope there is a link somewhere to this info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 2nd race Tuesday THE ARKLE - 17 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing. This trend would go back to 1970 had Borren Prince not swerved off the course when leading in its final prep race in 1985. - 6 year olds have a strong record in this race. Half of all six year olds to have run in the last 10 years have managed a placing. - Well Chief was the first 5 year old to win the race since their their allowance was cut from 8lbs to 5lbs - French breds have a good record. they have won the race 5 times and finished 2nd twice since 1993. taking the 1st important stat, we are down to the following: 1 441311 Almaydan 7 11 7 R Lee 48 5 223141 Kadount (FR) 7 11 7 A King 24 6 211132 Lacdoudal (FR) 6 11 7 P Hobbs 17 7 331F21 Limerick Boy (GER) 7 11 7 Miss Venetia Williams S Thomas17 8 3/3/-331 Ned Kelly (IRE) 9 11 7 E O'Grady 24 9 011111 River City (IRE) 8 11 7 Noel T Chance T Doyle142 12 222122 Supreme Developer (IRE) 8 11 7 Ferdy Murphy B Harding25 14 12F131 Town Crier (IRE) 10 11 7 Mrs S Smith 24 15 16-0112 Ulaan Baatar (IRE) 8 11 7 Mrs J Harrington 30 16 1102-11 War of Attrition (IRE) 11 7 M Morris 38 17 16-0111 Watson Lake (IRE) 7 11 7 N Meade 30 21 U13211 My Will (FR) 5 11 2 P Nicholls R Walsh52 23 13U-121 Mariah Rollins (IRE) 7 11 0 P Fahy 79 3 French bred horse above Kadount, Lacdoudal & My will. Kadount is 7, Lacdoudal is 6 & My Will is 5. Considering the stats, LACDOUDAL is the strongest contender here based on everything & the deciding age factor. Between these 3 at the mo on the trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 aykay - may be best if we have a day's trend thread otherwise this thread may become too many pages. keep this thread as discussion only. Paste the race thread details into the Tuesday trend thread & perhaps "lock" it. I also think a trend selection bet for each race with a 1pt stake & see how we fare after 24 races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khartoum Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 In case this hasn't been put up At the Races have a microsite for Cheltenham. Haven't looked at it yet, but they're normally pretty good. All the best, Khartoum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 13, 2005 Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Cheltenham 2005 I'll start some threads for each of the Cheltenham Days as this one is getting a bit cluttered- I think thats what you mean Bowles, let me know if i've got the wrong end of the stick though!! :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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