UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

[western skies]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 14 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Chelsea v Napoli (19:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.83 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.85 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Real Madrid v CSKA Moscow (19:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.14 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 27 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.84 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[ThusPrider]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Sorry this is up so late, posted in last week's thread! 14th March UCL Chelsea vs Napoli (aggregate 1 - 3) Napoli have been in fine form, winning their last 6 games, 4 of them have been margins of 2 or 3 goals. Chelsea have still been stop start after the departure of Villas-Boas. Di-Matteo certainly have adopted his own style to the team, making them tighter at the back, and winning both games to nil that he has been in charge of. Villas-Boas' attacking football has been widely criticised this season by his own players and pundits alike. Perhaps this suits Chelsea's players more, with periods in their last two games where Chelsea played really well and pressurized the opposition. However, that was against Championship Birmingham and 10 man Stoke in the league, games which they won 2 - 0 and 1 - 0 respectively. Very modest scorelines indeed. You would argue that in the Stoke game Chelsea should have won by more, but don't forget that stoke is a very average side in the Premier league who were down to 10 men away from home early on with a ridiculous red card. Of course Chelsea will need to chase the game and attack, but what they know they mustn't do is over-commit early. A controlled game will give them the best chance of qualification. Should Napoli score they will need to score beat them 4 - 1 to automatically qualify, whereas 2 - 0 will also see them qualify without the need for penalties due to them having an away goal. Napoli conceded 3 in a game they won 6 - 3 against Cagliari. Though it may sound bleak, in the form of falling defensive standards for the Italians, it will help address their problems and solve it, as they have a good lead to protect and they will know this game has a different dynamic to it than that of the league. Mug punt is goals, and obvious favorites to go over 2.5. I think otherwise and feel that the price on unders has been overinflated. Mata, who came on early as a substitute against stoke after Fuller's red card along with Sturridge should start after suggested intentions of being rested, as well as Cavani, who was also rested during Napoli's 6 - 3 victory also should start. Under 3.00 AGL 1.850 Pinnacle 10/10 +£50 side bet Under 2.5 5/4 Bet365

[lazynko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Chelsea - Napoli - under 2.5 @2.26 Pinnacle :hope I´m looking forward to this match very very much. Everything is still open and it would be very interesting to see how both teams will cope with their situations. Di Matteo know that his team has to score at least 2 goals, but as he said, they simply couldn´t open the game since early beginning because Napoli definitely has the ability to threat from counter-attacks. Chelsea is able to keep clean sheet at home, like they managed to keep it three times at group stage, but they have to be a little bit more defensively responsible against Napoli due to their big attacking power. Di Matteo has all key players available, except of Meireles and Bosingwa, but they shouldn´t be considered as a key men in Chelsea´s squad. Napoli is on great run of six beautiful wins and they simply wouldn´t want to stop their run - in this case we should say that they don´t want to be sent out of the competition. They might be a little bit disappointed because in the first leg they had so many chances and managed to score just 3 goals. If they had scored more, it might be over now, but they hadn´t, and now is still everything open and they have to gain extra focus on tonight´s game. I can´t see them play with some kind of very attacking mentality. They know that they are pretty far in this competiton and have pretty good chance to qualify into the next round, so I except very responsible defensive game tonight, maybe with some counter-attacks. All in all, Chelsea must attack from first minute, but as their coach mentioned, they couldn´t forget about defence, because if they concede first goal, mission is becoming impossible. Today, I fancy an under 2.5 in this game! Real Madrid - CSKA - Real Madrid´s goals over 3.5 @2.10 Bet365 :hope It was quite difficult to find something with some value on this match (I would appreciate your suggestions with some value :p), but I would consider this bet - Real will score at least 4 goals tonight. I really don´t have anything to say about this match, just that I give no chance to russian side tonight. They didn´t play bad in the first leg and I was suprised with lack of focus which was shown by Madrid players in last minutes. But this is another game, this is game at Bernabeu, and chance to impress many people with big win like Barcelona or Bayern in last CL´s matches. Messi scored 5, Gomez 4, let´s see if Ronaldo will continue with scoring a couple of goals .. or someone another, doesn´t matter, Real has many players who are available to score many goals ... hala madrid!

[Simao BVB]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Regarding Chelsea - Napoli game, first important fact is that Napoli don't have to push forward, they will play their most beloved game of deadly counter attacks with their best front trio of Cavani, Lavezzi and Hamsik. Even if they will trail by one, they will still sit back and try to punish Chelsea on the counter. Yes Napoli is in great form recently, but also morale in Chelsea is lifted after two wins with a clean sheet since Di Matteo took charge, of course opposition was not breath taking in Birmingham and Stoke, but wins are wins. Chelsea is definitely better team potential wise. I don't know if it's worth mentioning but Napoli has important game in Serie A coming up against Udinese, which can give them a boost of participating in Champions league also next year or a huge set back for that goal. Napoli's defence in their last game vs Cagliari was abysmal and they will need to vastly improve their performance. It's difficult to find something as this can go both ways, but i find some value in Chelsea -1 AH as they need to win with 2 goals or more, with a safety of wining just with one, which will also make Napoli happy. Chelsea -1 AH 2.30 PINNACLE I don't like anything so far in Real Madrid - CSKA game, but as lazynko mentioned Messi scored five, Gomez four, Ronaldo would want to follow definitely.

[Cafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Lineups and formations: Chelsea-Napoli Real Madrid-CSKA I'm surprised to see very low action on both matches on most forums. People probably don't see an edge and won't bet much. I don't see anything either, but then again yesterday I saw two good bets and lost both. Maybe I could try something extraordinary tonight. Real-CSKA, over 4.5 goals, 3.10 Sportingbet, 3/10 With odds 1.15 for home win we don't have that many chances to find a good bet. Yesterday I put money on Basel +2.5, we know how that ended. Probably because of that result, I think things will get ugly for CSKA as well. Historically, Real returned from the first knockout leg with a draw 21 times, and won the home match 20 times afterwards. Forget the first match, Real is different when playing at home. CSKA will try to hold the score at 0-0 for as long as possible, and as soon as they concede they will need to go forward, leaving a lot of space for Real up front. If Higuain will really play as the striker for Real, as seen on the lineups, I'm confident we'll see a high victory for Real. Maybe CSKA manages to score a consolation goal, making over 4.5 a better bet than Real -3.5 for example. Chelsea-Napoli, 2, 5.00 Boyle, 2/10 We've seen Chelsea underperform a lot of times this season. Now they have a coach who was fired from WBA for almost dropping out of Premiership, and they had to hire Roy Hodgson to start playing some decent football. Why wouldn't Napoli take advantage of the underperforming team which is under a lot of pressure and has a bad coach? Napoli can score, we all know that. Chelsea sometimes can't score. And it's difficult to score under pressure. So...worth a shot. Betting on Napoli is, IMHO, a wiser choice than betting on Chelsea for 1.80. Because, betting on Chelsea is betting on a) the name, b) the fact that they need a win. But in the domestic league they've won 14/28 matches, 50%. I can't call them favorites in any match this season, especially not with the odds the bookies are giving them. They already lost at home from Aston Villa, Liverpool, Arsenal...why not Napoli? Odds are good.

[mtom]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March The experts on the card market, could you suggest if it's a good idea to play 'no booking before 25.00' @1.83 (bet365)? I have found out the referee is Felix Brych but I don't know much about him. I was thinking to use this bet as a pre-match bet and then use my free bet for something else on the in-play market. Any sort of suggestions would be appreciated.

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Napoli @ 4.75 bet365 All the pressure is on Chelsea to claw back a 3-1 deficit and they will need to attack from the start. The longer the game goes on without them scoring, means the more desperate they will become and start to leave holes in their defensive line. Players like Cavano and Lavezzi can expose these spaces, and like the way they dominated Chelsea in the first leg. With Napoli liking to aply on the counter then can see them nick a goal here, and like them to hold onto this, to win the game Real Madrid - CSKA Moscow over 5.5 @ 4.25 bet365 Real were surprisingly held to a 1-1 draw in the first leg, but expect them to dominate the first leg, much like Bayern did in the win over Basel last night. Real have scored 4 goals or more in 6 of their 8 Primera Liga games, so like them to put on another very good goalscoring display, but they have also conceded in 6 of these 8 games, so they do tend to give up goals as well. CSKA have had a 1-1 and 2-2 draw in their first two Russian Premira Liga games, so they are good chances of scoring at least one here. See this as beinga high scoring game

[Chris-UK]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

The experts on the card market' date=' could you suggest if it's a good idea to play 'no booking before 25.00' @1.83 (bet365)? I have found out the referee is [b']Felix Brych but I don't know much about him. I was thinking to use this bet as a pre-match bet and then use my free bet for something else on the in-play market. Any sort of suggestions would be appreciated.

The last 3 champions league games he has reffed has never gave out a yellow card before 25min, he gave out a yellow card to L Adriano of shaktar at 26min when they played porto but apart from that is the closest time he has gave one out..most of the yellow cards he has given out are in the second half usally but you never know in football but this sounds like a good bet:D hope this helped

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

Real Madrid-CSKA CSKA will try to hold the score at 0-0 for as long as possible, and as soon as they concede they will need to go forward, leaving a lot of space for Real up front.

Why would CSKA wait until Real score before going forward? At 1-1, Real are ahead on away goals, so the pressure is more on CSKA, as it is they who have to score.

[BundesligaBets]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March I do not know. But could someone explain what thruspiders bet is about. What does AGL mean? Away goals? So he is going for under 3 away goals and less than 3 goals in the whole game between Napoli and Chelsea? At the moment I agree with most of you: many goals in the Real game and less goals in the Chelsea game. Good luck!

[Limitlezz]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Regarding Chelsea vs Napoli: Ok, I have been reading on every bet tipster site I could find and I would say its like 60/40 in tipsters oppinions for Chelsea to win this match. Personally I dont know. Chelsea used to dominate but lately they havent really impressed me. Fernando Torres was a huge flop for them and nobody can count on him. I am trying to analyse this match the best way possible and trying to calculate the best option. For me it seems that Both teams to score is a good bet. What do you think? The odds are 1.70 in average, and a Chelsea win is 1.76 in average right now with Betfair.com. I wish I could predict the future, but I cant. However, if I look down the road and imagine Napoli as a contender to win the Champions League. I dont think they have a chance. Chelsea does, if they keep their shit together. Napoli might not be a contender, but will they score tonight, that is the biggest question here. Will they score, and when will they score. If they score first then Chelsea is in biig problems. What do you think? Both teams to score a good bet or not? :)

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

I do not know. But could someone explain what thruspiders bet is about. What does AGL mean? Away goals? So he is going for under 3 away goals and less than 3 goals in the whole game between Napoli and Chelsea?

I believe that's just the Asian goal market.

[AVFCLuke]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March CSKA +3 is EVENS at William Hill. The bookies are obviously expecting a Real Madrid thrashing then with odds like that but no bet from me. If I were though I'd have a little dabble on that purely because of the value. CSKA aren't that bad of a team despite how good Madrid may be at home. Napoli Chelsea is another no bet but Chelsea to qualify at 2/1 looks decent value. Napoli play good attacking football but get exposed quite a bit and concede simple goals. Chelsea need to be up for it though, alot has gone on lately and the team will still be regrouping. That doubled up with +3 CSKA comes in at 5/1 which does not look too bad. Good luck to those betting tonight. I will be watching and enjoying for a change, need to give my nails a rest...

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

Anyone know why thusprider is banned? I enjoy reading his analysis and tips.

This has now been resolved and he is no longer banned.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Interesting fact is that CSKA haven't lost away against Spanish sides and recorded 3 wins and 3 draws, but still I won't be betting on any of tonight games.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

Interesting fact is that CSKA haven't lost away against Spanish sides and recorded 3 wins and 3 draws' date=' but still I won't be betting on any of tonight games.[/quote'] It's hard not to see them losing tonight. I saw most of the first game, and Real were comfortably the better side, but switched off in the last few minutes. CSKA had very little of the ball up until then. Tonight CSKA have to score, Real don't, so Real should have bags of space on the counter as CSKA press.

[vinnyno10]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Chelsea v Napoli No market really stands out, though I fancy goals in this one, the pre-match odds are very short.. If it stays 0:0 after 20 mins, the odds should rise to evens on OVER 2.5? Knowing that they have to score at least 2 to have any chance of progress, Chelsea should attack from the off.. This should allow the away side to play the usually deadly counter-attacking style. With the likes of Lavezzi & Hamsik both on the scoresheet last weekend, and Cavani rested, you just have to fancy them to score. The Napolitans see this as the ultimate competition this season and I can't see them trying to defend becouse its not something that they EVER do. Both Teams To Score seems likely. Half with more goals - Second Half is my bet, but I will look to bet in play in this one. :)

[Dodger]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March Just two minimum stake Betfair bets for an extra bit of interest...but there is reasoning behind the bets and, however crazy it may be, thought might as well post it up. Got thoroughly sick this season of backing our great English teams against supposedly inferior opposition, just to see them dumped out of the CL like sacks of rotten spuds. Are we generally guilty of overvaluing our teams and undervaluing the oppostion? Judging on this season's results it seems so. Additionally...will the fans be happy with Drogba's demand that they back the team up even if things are going wrong? To be saying something like that...is he in the right frame of mind for this game? I think Chelsea will go out tonight but my £2 on an odds on shot is pointless...so I've gone for the jugular with £2 on Napoli/Napoli at 10.0 With Real Madrid being managed by master of psychological warfare...i reckon he will send his side out tonight to get the 8 goals required to give him the edge over the others in the next round. So went an a strange BF market where they all ask for odds like 9.37 and 199.8 (WTF???)...quite pleased to see my £2 on Real Madrid total goals 7+ @ 12.00 has been matched. and that, my fellow PLers, is how a true nutter picks out his football bets!

[vinnyno10]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

Chelsea v Napoli No market really stands out, though I fancy goals in this one, the pre-match odds are very short.. If it stays 0:0 after 20 mins, the odds should rise to evens on OVER 2.5? Knowing that they have to score at least 2 to have any chance of progress, Chelsea should attack from the off.. This should allow the away side to play the usually deadly counter-attacking style. With the likes of Lavezzi & Hamsik both on the scoresheet last weekend, and Cavani rested, you just have to fancy them to score. The Napolitans see this as the ultimate competition this season and I can't see them trying to defend becouse its not something that they EVER do. Both Teams To Score seems likely. Half with more goals - Second Half is my bet, but I will look to bet in play in this one. :)

All three bets came in with time to spare. That was a BOMB by Inler.. +4 units :beer

[ThusPrider]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

Sorry this is up so late, posted in last week's thread! 14th March UCL Chelsea vs Napoli (aggregate 1 - 3) Napoli have been in fine form, winning their last 6 games, 4 of them have been margins of 2 or 3 goals. Chelsea have still been stop start after the departure of Villas-Boas. Di-Matteo certainly have adopted his own style to the team, making them tighter at the back, and winning both games to nil that he has been in charge of. Villas-Boas' attacking football has been widely criticised this season by his own players and pundits alike. Perhaps this suits Chelsea's players more, with periods in their last two games where Chelsea played really well and pressurized the opposition. However, that was against Championship Birmingham and 10 man Stoke in the league, games which they won 2 - 0 and 1 - 0 respectively. Very modest scorelines indeed. You would argue that in the Stoke game Chelsea should have won by more, but don't forget that stoke is a very average side in the Premier league who were down to 10 men away from home early on with a ridiculous red card. Of course Chelsea will need to chase the game and attack, but what they know they mustn't do is over-commit early. A controlled game will give them the best chance of qualification. Should Napoli score they will need to score beat them 4 - 1 to automatically qualify, whereas 2 - 0 will also see them qualify without the need for penalties due to them having an away goal. Napoli conceded 3 in a game they won 6 - 3 against Cagliari. Though it may sound bleak, in the form of falling defensive standards for the Italians, it will help address their problems and solve it, as they have a good lead to protect and they will know this game has a different dynamic to it than that of the league. Mug punt is goals, and obvious favorites to go over 2.5. I think otherwise and feel that the price on unders has been overinflated. Mata, who came on early as a substitute against stoke after Fuller's red card along with Sturridge should start after suggested intentions of being rested, as well as Cavani, who was also rested during Napoli's 6 - 3 victory also should start. Under 3.00 AGL 1.850 Pinnacle 10/10 +£50 side bet Under 2.5 5/4 Bet365

Entertaining match, always more likely to go overs, though I felt I should of at least had my stake back, perhaps. -10 units and abit Enjoyed my evening of football though.

[ilikemoney]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March What a fantastic match! Well done to all winners. :ok

[ProperSoccer]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

Today, I like both home teams to cover. Real is a COMPLETELY different CL team at home and should expose CSKA today, easily covering the -2.5... Real -2.5 @ 1.9 Chelsea are gaining some momentum as of late and should be able to contest with Napoli today, at least by 1 goal... Chelsea -0.75 @ 1.85 Good Luck!!

Good match day today. Sorry for opening a new thread. Both picks went through today though. Hope everyone had an enjoyable day. Started 3-0 on the forum, hope to keep up.

[blackcrow]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

Napoli @ 4.75 :( Real Madrid - CSKA Moscow over 5.5 @ 4.25 :(

Nearly had one more goal in the real match

[lazynko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 14 March

Chelsea - Napoli - under 2.5 @2.26 Pinnacle :hope = :( Real Madrid - CSKA - Real Madrid´s goals over 3.5 @2.10 Bet365 :hope = :nana !

Exciting match at Stamfrod bridge, but too many goals for me :p Real saved it a little bit ..