Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wigan Athletic v Aston Villa (15:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.88 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[MPLouis]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb Odds on Villa look too high to me. Wigan home form so far: 1/5/6 Villa away form so far: 3/6/3 Add them together for aggregate form: 4/11/9 Assuming a 30% chance of a draw, this gives comparative home and away odds of: Wigan 4.6 Villa 2.0 Current odds are: Wigan 2.8 Villa 2.75 Villa's form ion the last 5 league games has been slightly better than Wigan's http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/02/25/england/premier-league/wigan-athletic-football-club/aston-villa-football-club/1117298/ Both teams have struggled this season. Wigan are propping up the table, but last week they got a morale-boosting win at Bolton, taking them to three wins away. At home they have won just once in twelve games. Last week Villa lost at home to Man City. Like Wigan, Villa's away form is better than their home form. Both sides seem to feel the pressure at home and perform better away if their results are anything to go from. The main team news is that striker Gabriel Agbonlahor is back for Villa, after missing the last three games with injuries. BBC preview: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17082835 Mark Lawrenson on BBC (predicting a 1-1 draw): http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17106280 Yahoo/Europort preview: http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/24022012/58/premier-league-matchpack-wigan-v-aston-villa.html With less pressure on them playing away from home, and having an away record that is better than Wigan's home one, I think Villa should be shorter than 2.75 for this game, so there is some value in backing them. I prefer 2-way bets, so I suggest: Aston Villa 0 AH 1.95 Bet 365

[ThusPrider]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb I sense goals in this fixture. Wigan have a near full strength squad whilst Keane will play his last game before going back to the Major League, and he has been an excellent loan signing for Villa. Villa typically play better away from home, and are more than capable of scoring goals. Without dwelling too much on statistics, Villas last 3 away games they have scored 3 against Chelsea and Wolves, as well as 1 against Newcastle. Other than that they scored 2 at the emirates. Wigan has a extremely leaky defense and games can sometimes explode and come a goal rush at the DW. This makes the likes of over 4.5 goals look extremely vulnerable at around 8.35. Games this season I can remember off the top of my head at the DW include 3 - 3 draw against Blackburn (4 - 3 last season), 1 - 4 against Sunderland as well as 1 - 3 against Bolton, and 0 - 4 loss against Arsenal. Both had capability to go over the 4.5 margin. Im not going to cover over 3.5 here, as I think such scores of 4 - 0, 3 - 1 to either side covers a smaller range of results than the odds suggest. Though some games at the DW can be extremely dry, such as 0 - 0 against Liverpool, 0 - 1 against Man City or even 1 - 1 Draw against Chelsea. Though all were against strong teams and I have noticed it was either really dark or really cold on the day during these fixtures. An afternoon fixture this time may inlogically contrast this. Over 2.5 2.070 Pinnacle 10/10 Over 4.5 Betfair 8.15 effective 3/10 Wigan 2.800 Pinnacle 4/10

[IAmGooner]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb Think there's value on the overs myself tbh. Wigan vs Villa OVER 2.5 goals @ 2.070 (Pinnacle:5pts) This is a big one for both sides it seems. Wigan are a really poor side IMO, but Martinez gets them playing the ball on the ground and trying to score goals at least, they have a full squad to choose from now and you do sense they could get at Villa's defence which is not exactly sturdy and shorn of Richard Dunne now, plus Warnock has looked horrific at left back whenever I've watched him and I dont rate Hutton either. Would be surprised if Wigan didnt net at least once in this one. But one thing about Villa is that they have attacking potential, I think it's the manager who has really failed to get that out of them consistently enough.....a team with Bent, Keane, the returning Agbonlahor supported by N'Zogbia(who has been poor for Villa in all fairness, maybe a return to Wigan inspires him), Albrighton, possibly Ireland....there's some good options there and you'd expect a couple of them to be on the bench coming on later. I think a game like this away from home could suit Villa more. Value on the overs in this one for me. Happy to get over evens. Will also stick a couple of pts on Villa to net a couple of times, just a gut feeling based on how I feel the game will go. If they can get their noses in front, I like the odds on Villa being able to create more chances against this Wigan side. Total Team Goals: Aston Villa - OVER 1.5 goals @ 2.50 (Bet365:2pts) :hope

[Banner]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb Villa win! Away from home they are very good! Or maybe even Lay Wigan, I cannot see a Wigan win although Villa are missing Richard Dunne!

[blackcrow]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb Over 2.5 @ 2.05 pinnacle Wigan sit on the bottom, but it looks like they will not abandon their way they play and will still look to play an attractive brand of football. They have scored in 7 of their last 8 EPL games, which suggests that they are a team that are always in it, but because their defence leaks goals, having had just one clean sheet in their last 22 EPL games, then they are also likely to concede as well as score goals. Like Wigan, Aston Villa also concede goals, having allowed at least one goal in their last 7 games, and though they have maanged to score in 5 of these 7 games, it has not been enough for them to get more than the 2 wins they have from these last 7 games. Both teams need the 3 points, and with both teams scoring in 3 of their last 4 meetings, then can see them boths scoring yet again, and likely to score a second one as well. Season record: 118-136 (+23.98)

[Mustafa]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb Have nothing to add here, so will follow all the above posts on Over 2.5 Goals since it is very likely. Good luck :hope

[CiderHead]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb Nothing really to add to the previous posts about over 2.5 that hasn't already been said. Huge game for both sides and one they will want and expect to win. A draw is no good to either side, can see this finishing 2-1 to either side. Over 2.5 at 2 William Hill

[IAmGooner]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb Wigan Team: Al Habsi, Boyce, Alcaraz, Caldwell, Figueroa, Moses, Gomez, McCarthy, McArthur, Beausejour, Di Santo, Villa Team: Given, Hutton, Collins, Cuellar, Warnock, Albrighton, Bannan, Gardner, Agbonlahor, Bent, Keane. Both sides have attacking potential there, hopefully our bets come good today. Villa's centre mid doesn't look too sturdy but attacking wise they look pretty threatening.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb :lol:lol:lol Well after all the OVERS talk, we get a snore-fest. Ah well, into the next one.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb

I sense goals in this fixture. Wigan have a near full strength squad whilst Keane will play his last game before going back to the Major League' date=' and he has been an excellent loan signing for Villa. Villa typically play better away from home, and are more than capable of scoring goals. Without dwelling too much on statistics, Villas last 3 away games they have scored 3 against Chelsea and Wolves, as well as 1 against Newcastle. Other than that they scored 2 at the emirates. Wigan has a extremely leaky defense and games can sometimes explode and come a goal rush at the DW. This makes the likes of over 4.5 goals look[i'] extremely vulnerable at around 8.35. Games this season I can remember off the top of my head at the DW include 3 - 3 draw against Blackburn (4 - 3 last season), 1 - 4 against Sunderland as well as 1 - 3 against Bolton, and 0 - 4 loss against Arsenal. Both had capability to go over the 4.5 margin. Im not going to cover over 3.5 here, as I think such scores of 4 - 0, 3 - 1 to either side covers a smaller range of results than the odds suggest. Though some games at the DW can be extremely dry, such as 0 - 0 against Liverpool, 0 - 1 against Man City or even 1 - 1 Draw against Chelsea. Though all were against strong teams and I have noticed it was either really dark or really cold on the day during these fixtures. An afternoon fixture this time may inlogically contrast this. Over 2.5 2.070 Pinnacle 10/10 Over 4.5 Betfair 8.15 effective 3/10 Wigan 2.800 Pinnacle 4/10

Horrible day for me, game really needed a goal to spark it into life, and never got it. Never looked like going overs, -17units

[MPLouis]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb

Odds on Villa look too high to me. Wigan home form so far: 1/5/6 Villa away form so far: 3/6/3 Add them together for aggregate form: 4/11/9 Assuming a 30% chance of a draw, this gives comparative home and away odds of: Wigan 4.6 Villa 2.0 Current odds are: Wigan 2.8 Villa 2.75 Villa's form ion the last 5 league games has been slightly better than Wigan's http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/02/25/england/premier-league/wigan-athletic-football-club/aston-villa-football-club/1117298/ Both teams have struggled this season. Wigan are propping up the table, but last week they got a morale-boosting win at Bolton, taking them to three wins away. At home they have won just once in twelve games. Last week Villa lost at home to Man City. Like Wigan, Villa's away form is better than their home form. Both sides seem to feel the pressure at home and perform better away if their results are anything to go from. The main team news is that striker Gabriel Agbonlahor is back for Villa, after missing the last three games with injuries. BBC preview: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17082835 Mark Lawrenson on BBC (predicting a 1-1 draw): http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17106280 Yahoo/Europort preview: http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/24022012/58/premier-league-matchpack-wigan-v-aston-villa.html With less pressure on them playing away from home, and having an away record that is better than Wigan's home one, I think Villa should be shorter than 2.75 for this game, so there is some value in backing them. I prefer 2-way bets, so I suggest: Aston Villa 0 AH 1.95 Bet 365

Result: Wigan 0 Villa 0 Bet void From reports it sounds as though Wigan dominated, having more chances on goal - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17082835 I'm not convinced that this bet was good value. Although the 'overs' bets lost, that may have been down to luck. On another day, it sounds as though this could have ended 2-1 or 3-1.

[blackcrow]

Re: Wigan v Villa > Sat 25th Feb

Over 2.5 @ 2.05 pinnacle Wigan sit on the bottom, but it looks like they will not abandon their way they play and will still look to play an attractive brand of football. They have scored in 7 of their last 8 EPL games, which suggests that they are a team that are always in it, but because their defence leaks goals, having had just one clean sheet in their last 22 EPL games, then they are also likely to concede as well as score goals. Like Wigan, Aston Villa also concede goals, having allowed at least one goal in their last 7 games, and though they have maanged to score in 5 of these 7 games, it has not been enough for them to get more than the 2 wins they have from these last 7 games. Both teams need the 3 points, and with both teams scoring in 3 of their last 4 meetings, then can see them boths scoring yet again, and likely to score a second one as well.

:eyes Season record: 119-140 (+20.78)