My Betting Log 2012

[skylark2009]

Skylarks racing bets log 2012 A new year and a new G.H in the form of a betting diary for horse racing. ### I'll include reasoning with each bet, with the intention of maybe transferring it to the ATR forum at some future point.### General info This hunt will likely be an 'all rounder' with regards to the type of bets. While primarily aimed at win only bets, I'll likely include 'place', 'each way', 'lay to win' and 'lay to place' bets here too. Staking will be based on my old 'Boom or Bust' staking, that is, using 1pt through to 10pts along with a 25pts 'bust' type stake given on how I asssess each bet. Win bets, place bets and lay bets will use the full gamut of the staking range of 1pt to 10pts with the 25pts 'bust' bet, with the proviso that the stakes for lay bets represent the LIABILITY or the amount to be lost if a losing bet. Since Each way bets are two bets (win and place), then the stakes will range from 1pt E/w to 5pts E/w max, with an even number of points given for each bet (i.e 2,4,6,8 or 10pts). For the purpose of determining the overal strike rate if an E/w bet produces a profit or breaks even by placing, then I'll count it as a winner. From time to time, it will also be likely that I bet on more than one horse in a race, such bets will be either 'dutched' or 'saver' type bets or a combination of 'win' or 'place' or 'lay' bets using the given stakes . The betting should (hopefully) be consistent in numbers from January to August, but will peter out during September, October and November as the emerging bigger fields, going changes and the overall poorer quality jumps/flat racing make reading form a lot more difficult during these months. Previous hunts history

Boom or Bust#1			Boom or Bust#2			Boom or Bust#3			Two banks
Bets	145		Bets	38		Bets	91		Bets	750
Wins	68		Wins	14		Wins	45		Wins	316
S/R	46.90%		S/R	36.84%		S/R	49.45%		S/R	42.13%
Staked	7313.2		Staked	1853.82		Staked	560.64		Staked	30262.9
Returns	8145.45		Returns	1488.5		Returns	554.16		Returns	30956.08
Profit	829.25		Profit	-365.32		Profit	-6.48		Profit	693.18
Yield	11.34%		Yield	-19.71%		Yield	-1.16%		Yield	2.29%

Summary

• Horse Racing bets with reasoning
  • Bet Types
    • Win bets
    • Place bets
    • Lay to win bets
    • Lay to place bets
    • E/w bets
    • Dutched bets
    • Saver bets

    [*]Staking

    • 1pt through to 10pts stakes
    • 25pts 'bust' type stake
    • E/w will vary from 1pt E/w to 5pts E/w
    • Stakes for Lay bets (win or place) will represent the LIABILITY or the total that will be lost if unsuccessful
    • The returns from exchange bets will all be calculated with 5% commission

[skylark2009]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 Testing the format to see if I like it Five horses to start this GH off with today. The Bet365 bets were placed yesterday (missed a massive 5/2 for Whisky Bravo by minutes), while the Betfair bets were placed today with a combination of win and place bets.

3.50 Chepstow -

Tiger Maguire -

Couse/distance winner last time out. This may be an easy option here for another win being the only winner in the field today. Trainer D McCain jnr is in good form having had 5 wins and 7 places from his last 20 runners. Hearty Royale and Village Vic look to be next best using trainer/jockey stats. (W-0.52, P-0.73)

2.05 Kempton -

Whoops A Daisy

- Has already proven himself over this course and distance by winning here last time out. He has yet to prove himself in handicap company, but may be capable of placing. Trainer has 6 wins and 5 places from his last 20 runners here at Kempton. (W-0.33, P-0.70)

12.10 Southwell AW -

Whisky Bravo

- A decent price available today for his achievements to date. He has had two of his rivals behind him previously, here at Southwell AW and may still be weighted to finish in front of them today. Tends to come with a late run after being held up and the same tactics may be useful again. His three wins to date are here at Southwell AW. (W-0.44, P-0.84)

1.50 Southwell AW -

Bivouac

- A bit of a course specialist with 5 of his 6 wins coming here on the AW surface. Trainer has 11 wins and 4 places from his last 20 runners and 8 wins and 4 places from his last 20 runners here at Southwell. (W-0.45, P 0.80)

3.35 Southwell -

Minortransgression

- He could be progressive enough to overcome his highest rating, being raised 20lbs for his last three wins. Conditions again look ideal today with regards to course, distance and class. On The Cuspmay prove to be best of the rest. (W-0.35,P-0.73)

Bets

#1 12.10 Southwell: Whisky Bravo - 4pts win @ 15/8 Bet365 (BOG) #2 12.10 Southwell: Whisky Bravo - 8pts place @ 0.37 Betfair #3 1.50 Southwell: Bivouac - 3pts win @ 7/4 Bet365 (BOG) #4 1.50 Southwell: Bivouac - 7pts place @ 0.74 Betfair #5 2.05 Kempton: Whoops A Daisy - 5pts place @ 0.59 Betfair #6 3.35 Southwell: Minortransgression - 2pts win @ 9/4 Bet365 (BOG) #7 3.35 Southwell: Minortransgression - 5pts place @ 0.69 Betfair #8 3.50 Chepstow: Tiger Maguire - 10pts win @ 0.73 Betfair #9 3.50 Chepstow: Tiger Maguire - 25pts place @ 0.18 Betfair

[BillyHills]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 Good luck Skylark mate:ok

[staffy]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 Yeah good luck Sky.

[skylark2009]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 A very poor day yesterday with only two of the bets being successful. Not very good as it means I immediatley have a loss of approx 48pts to try to claw back. :$

Total Bets	9
Total Wins	2
S/R %	22.22%
Total Staked (Points)	69
Total Returns (Points)	21.44
Profit (Points)	-47.56
Yield %	-68.93%

Onto todays bets, four horses in total spread over five bets.

2.00 Leopardstown -

Voler La Vedette/Mourad

- These two are difficult to separate as they have both finished ahead of the each other previous races. Voler La Vedette may be able to confirm placings again today after beating Mourad over 3 lengths last time in the Hatton Grace at Fairyhouse and still has a 5lb pull in the weights. I'll be cautious here with dutch/saver bets on both.

2.00 Leopardstown: Voler La Vedette - 5pts win @ 6/4 Paddy Power (BOG) 2.00 Leopardstown: Mourad - 5pts win @ 11/8 William Hill (BOG)

2.35 Leopardstown -

Quito De La Roque

- He seems to have a preference for soft/heavy going, but has previously won on today's good/yielding going. A very progressive horse throughout his career and has only finished outside of the first two in twelve races. Rubi Light looks to be the main danger here, who also looks to be a progressive type. Interestingly, P Nicholls sends over Noland. P Nicholls has won this race twice from three attempts but age stats and lack of a recent run may be against Noland.

2.35 Leopardstown: Quito De La Roque - 3pts win @ 15/8 William Hill (BOG) 2.35 Leopardstown: Quito De La Roque - 8pts place @ 0.4 Betfair

3.50 Wolverhampton -

Peace Seeker

- He has won his last two races, both at Kempton over 6 furlongs. If he can translate that to form here at Wolverhampton, then he could prove hard to beat. He looks progressive of late after leading from the front and making all in his last two races, tactics that paid off twice. Regular jockey W. A. Carson is aboard again today.

3.50 Wolverhampton: Peace Seeker - 6pts win @ 4/6 Paddy Power (BOG)

[skylark2009]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 A much better set of results yesterday, with three of the bets winning. Best odds guaranteed kicked in with Voler La Vedette (13/8 returned) and Peace Seeker (5/4 returned), Peaces Keeper's lack of form at Wolverhampton may have been why he drifted from 4/6 to eventual SP of 5/4. The Quito De La Roque bets, essentially ended up bet to nothing. 10pts reclaimed from the bookies as a result. :)

Total Bets	14
Total Wins	5
S/R %	35.71%
Total Staked (Points)	96
Total Returns (Points)	59.10
Profit (Points)	-36.90
Yield %	-38.43%

Todays bets are simply on two horses with two win bets only. Spahi in the 12.50 Southwell would have also been a bet, but has been withdrawn.

1.55 Leopardstown -

Thousand Stars

- With Hurricane Fly being pulled out, Thousand Stars looks the obvious choice now. He was 2nd to Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown beaten by five lengths, form that could bode well for this race today. He has since gone on to progress resulting in him winning his latest two races. He won his last race very comfortably when given a strong ride by jockey R Walsh (riding again today). Unnacompanied looks to be the main danger as she has a 10lb allowance over her rivals, but this race has historically been won by older horses, a stat that may be against her. (W- 0.43, P-0.74)

1.55 Leopardstown: Thousand Stars - 4pts win @ 5/4 Bet365 (BOG)

2.35 Southwell -

Karma Chameleon

- He has taken to the artificial surfaces quite well and is now trying fibresand here at Southwell for the first time. With conditions to suit, Karma Chameleon could notch up another win today if he handles this surface, he is effective at this distance and class of race having won his last two with similar conditions at Kempton and Wolverhampton. Ridden by Seb Sanders today who has had 7 winners and 4 places from his last 20 rides here at Southwell. (W-0.54, P-0.93)

2.35 Southwell: Karma Chameleon - 5pts win @ 2/1 Boylesprts (BOG)

[Denman]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 Good luck with this Skylark, enjoyed your previous GHs hopefully this one will trump the lot. :ok

[skylark2009]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 Yesterday's two bets resulted in a profit of 6pts, further reducing the loss incurred from the first set of bets. Thousand Stars was essentially beaten by the fillies allowance of 10lb given to Accompanied, but looks sure to progress onto bigger and better things. While Karma Chameleon duly obliged at 2/1

Total Bets	16
Total Wins	6
S/R %	37.50%
Total Staked (Points)	105
Total Returns (Points)	74.10
Profit (Points)	-30.90
Yield %	-29.42%

Todays bets cover five horses with five bets.

1.05 Jebel Ali -

Mujaazef

- He has won his last three races here and looks to be improving with every run. He has progressed from handicap company to the conditions races here, which are essentially class 1 or listed class type races. Conditions should suit again today and the distance shouldn't be a problem. The likely danger could be Alo Pura, if race fit after a long layoff. (W-0.55, P-1.0)

1.05 Jebel Ali: Mujaazef - 5pts win @ 5/4 Ladbrokes (BOG)?

1.35 Lingfield -

Encore Un Fois

- This horse looks to be best in at the weights in this claiming race, judging from the official ratings. The claimer aboard today takes off a further 5lb. The highest rated is Nibani at 72, but is set to shoulder 11lbs higher than Encore Un Fois and would need to improve by 9lbs. Wisecraic is rated 61 and would need to improve by 6lbs on the ratings with Encore Un Fois. This is type of race Encore Un Fois seems to excel in and could be difficult to beat today. (W-0.73, P-0.93)

1.35 Lingfield: Encore Un Fois - 8pts win @ 1/1 Bet365 (BOG)

5.40 Wolverhampton -

Perfect Cracker

- Given his current form and with race conditions looking suitable, Perfect Cracker could produce a three timer today. Up only 4lb for his five length win over Cheylesmore last time out, this rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him. Should go close today. (W-0.47, P-0.79)

5.40 Wolverhampton: 4pts win @ 5/4 William Hill (BOG)

2.20 Taunton -

Ted Spread/Rowan Tiger

- Ted Spread ran into 4th place last time out in the Felix Rosentiel Hurdle at Ascot and the form coming out of this race looks exceptional. The first, second, fifth and ninth in the race went on to win next time out, While the sixth, seventh and eighth in the race placed next time out. If this form holds, then Ted Spread could be the likely winner here today. My initial thoughts when examining this race was for Rowan Tiger to be the most likely winner, but as a result of drilling down into Ted Spreads last race, I've reassessed today's race and my opinion is now in favour of Ted Spread with Rowan Tiger as the most like danger. (W-0.38, P-0.72)

2.20 Taunton: Ted Spread - 3pts @ 15/8 William Hill (BOG) 2.20 Taunton: Rowan Tiger - 5pts place @ 0.86 Betfair

[skylark2009]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 A extremely disappointing day on Saturday, with all the bets losing. This means that the total deficit going into 2012 is now 56pts, not a very good start to this GH. :sad

Total Bets	21
Total Wins	6
S/R %	28.57%
Total Staked (Points)	130
Total Returns (Points)	74.10
Profit (Points)	-55.90
Yield %	-43.00%

Todays bets:

1.05 Cheltenham -

Sonofvic

- Ran to two lengths of potential superstar Grand Crus last time out at Newbury, where his speed may have been blunted by the extra three furlongs and some mistakes that day. He is now running at a more suited distance today, just one furlong further than his two hurdle wins last season and could progress after a somewhat pleasing chasing debut. Grand Crus and Alfie Spinner went on to win their next races (the 3rd, Viking Blond pulled up next time out). Solix looks the pick of the rest, having won a grade 2 last time out and beating Sybarite to boot, but now has 7lb extra to carry. Invictus and Champion Court are both grade 3 winners and carry an extra 4lb each. The extra conditions the top three carry may enough to give Sonofvic a winning opportunity today.

1.05 Cheltenham: Sonofvic - 4pts win @ 5/4 Paddy Power (BOG)

1.15 Musselburgh -

Eagle Rock

- The favourite, Bourne, won his race last time out in a pleasing style and is probably looks the horse to beat today, Into Wain was 2nd that day and went on to win his next race. But today Bourne has to concede lumps of weight all round to his rivals and Eagle Rock may benefit by being in receipt of 18lbs from Bourne. Eagle Rock has put up two credible efforts to date and was 2nd on both occasions, last time in a grade 1 race. The weight advantage today may help Eagle Rock get his nose in front today.

1.15 Musselburgh: Eagle Rock - 4pts win @ 6/4 Bet365 (BOG)

2.10 Cheltenham -

Duke Of Lucca

- While I have bet against Solix in the 1.05 here at Cheltenham, a good run from Solix today (placed or even a win!) may help further frank the form for Duke Of Lucca today. Duke Of Lucca was beaten by twelve lengths by Solix on their penultimate novice chase race, both went on to win their races next time out. Duke Of lucca seems to have taken to the bigger obstacles after a couple of 2nds and a win last time out this season and is running in a handicap today for the first time today. He will need to improve today, as he is running in a grade 1 today compared to the grade 4's previously. Rated 142 (chase rating) when compared to his hurdle rating of 148, so could be reasonably handicapped on his handicap chase debut.

2.10 Cheltenham: Duke Of Lucca - 1pt E/w @ 6/1 Boylesports (BOG)

[skylark2009]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 Last three bets all lost. Giving a losing run of eight.

Total Bets	24
Total Wins	6
S/R %	25.00%
Total Staked (Points)	178
Total Returns (Points)	112.10
Profit (Points)	-65.90
Yield %	-37.02%

Today's bets

12.25 Southwell -

Ingleby Arch

- Using official ratings shows that Ingleby Arch is best in at the weights today, next best is Salerosa who is 2lbs behind on the ratings. Ingleby Arch has had 22 runs around Southwell on the AW surface and managed to win 8 of them at todays distance and 1 at seven furlongs, giving a SR% of approx 40% here. This is probably his level now and should put in a good performance with conditions to suit. Trainer D Barron is astute at placing his charges and has had 7 winners and 6 places from 20 in this type of race here at Southwell. The trainer/jockey combo is currently at 5 winners and 7 places from 20 here at Southwell. Also of interest here is Punching, he is another course specialist who has been running in higher class races, and is rated about 6lb behind on the ratings. Dropped down in class today, he could overcome the 6lb disadvantage and is the most likely danger to Ingleby Arch.

12.25 Southwell: Ingleby Arch - 8pts win @ 4/5 Bet365 (BOG)

1.55 Southwell -

On The Cusp

- This looks to be a straight race between Minortransgression and On The Cusp, They raced against each other last time out with On The Cusp winning by 4 lengths. On The Cusp may still be open to further improvement judging from his last run and could hold still Minortransgression at the weights. Whereas Minortransgression's recent rises in the ratings because of his three recent wins may find it difficult to improve further. Interestingly, The Lock Master looks to have been 'wrong distanced' in his last two races, racing at 1m 3f and 1m 4f. Back to 1m today and rated to his best, he could cause an upset if in form.

1.55 Southwell: On The Cusp - 5pts @ 11/8 Paddypower (BOG)

1.35 Ayr -

Edge Of Town

- Virtually impossible to make a case for any of the others here. Double Default hasn't won since 2007, while Desertmore Star and Cilliseal have yet to win. Edge Of Town will definitely act on today's going and is coming into this race on the back of a win here last time out, will start a very short priced favourite here so I'll make this a 25pt win bet.

1.35 Ayr: Edge Of Town - 25pts win @ 1/4 Bet365 (BOG)

[skylark2009]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 Another two losing bets with Edge Of Town a non runner. I couldn't hit the side of a barn with a shotgun if I tried, judging from my recent picks. The losing run now extends to 10.

Total Bets	26
Total Wins	6
S/R %	23.08%
Total Staked (Points)	153
Total Returns (Points)	74.10
Profit (Points)	-78.90
Yield %	-51.57%

I need to stop this losing run and try to make a dent in the losses to date, so :hope with the five bets for today.

1.50 Lingfield -

Ashbrittle

- 2nd last time in a novice hurdle at Ffos Las, the going then was heavy and so he should handle today's going and he should improve today for that run. He had Charm School 3 lengths behind that day, who had a 5lb advantage with his claiming jockey but should hold Charm School at the weights today. The danger will likely be Tindaro, who has put up some creditable runs lately and could improve further if handling todays going.

1.50 Lingfield: Ashbrittle - 4pts win @ 5/6 Boylesport (BOG)

2.30 Ludlow -

Alasi

- Unless something else springs a surprise here, then Alasi is probably something of a no-brainer bet. She's probably the classiest in the field, having won a listed class hurdle previously. She won in a grade 4 chase last time out and looks to have conditions to suit again today.

2.30 Ludlow: Alasi - 25pts @ 1/5 Paddy Power (BOG)

3.50 Lingfield -

Hi Note

- On form, Hi Note looks to be best here not having been out of the first three in all of her races to date. She should act on today's heavy going judging from her soft ground runs. trainer, Miss S West has 5 wins and 5 places from her last 20 runners and the trainer/jockey combo is 6 wins and 5 places from 20. The downside to the trainer stats is that Miss S West has had 0 winners from 7 runners here at Lingfield.

3.50 Lingfield: Hi Note - 4pts win @ 2/1 Paddy Power (BOG)

3.30 Wolverhampton -

Tornado Force

- Course, distance, class and going, Tornado Force has conditions to suit to maybe able to notch up a third win today. J Noseda has 5 wins and 4 places from his last 20 runners and 7 wins and 7 places from his last 20 runners here at Wolverhampton.

3.30 Woverhampton: Tornado Force - 10pts win @ 8/13 VCbet (BOG)

6.10 Wolverhampton -

La Estrella

- In good form lately and won over course and distance last time out. He's been a consistent runner throughout his career and has notched up 16 wins from 42 races in total, with four of those wins here at Wolverhampton (primarily a Southwell specialist though). D Cantillon has had 8 wins and 1 place from his last 20 runners.

6.10 Wolverhampton: La Estrella - 2pts E/w @ 5/1 Boylesport (BOG)

[skylark2009]

Re: My Betting Log 2012 La Estrella was a non runner on the 5th, leaving four bets. While two of the remaining bets went on to win, the two losers swallowed up the profits they had made with a further 6pts approx loss on top.

Total Bets	30
Total Wins	8
S/R %	26.67%
Total Staked (Points)	196
Total Returns (Points)	111.44
Profit (Points)	-84.56
Yield %	-43.14%

Two bets for tomorrow.

1.50 Southwell -

Ace Master

- His three wins have come here at Southwell, culminating in win here last time when beating Arkaim by 1 length. He still looks to have something in hand with Arkaim, who is in receipt of 2lb today. I've rated Ace Master as a 29% chance, so the 3/1 currently available with Paddy Power may show a little value. Hilbre Court is interesting (but form in decline) with three wins here at the distance, but hasn't won for nearly two years. So Is She also likes Southwell, but will need to step up today for this grade of race.

1.50 Southwell: Ace Master - 3pts win @ 3/1 Paddy Power (BOG)

2.50 Southwell -

Ishiamiracle

- She may be able to follow up following from her success in a 5f maiden here last time out. While she has performed consistently in her races, she was primarily targeted at 7f or 1m races but she always found one or two to good. Returned to sprinting distance last time, she won by 6 lengths which shows which she may be better suited to 5f or the 6f that she has today. She has plenty of experience at Southwell which can only be a plus. Wicked Wench could likely figure here, as she been running well lately. Sonko, who has previously finished ahead of Wicked Wench, won yesterday, potentially franking Wicked Wench's recent form.

2.50 Southwell: Ishiamiracle - 5pts win @ 5/4 Paddy Power (BOG)