Aidymac Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 What does my head in is i confuse myself and can never decide on a race to stick with and fully study... I never study races properly, but after reading a very good book i have to learn discipline.. My question is, how do you pick out a specific race from the rest? We cant look through every racecard, it would take too long... How do you select which race you are going to bury your mind into? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LJD Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! I also struggle with picking a race to study and really put my efforts into. I usually end up with picking a few horses in various races but the ones that I don't back will usually go on to win!:wall its pretty frustrating sometimes but its just one of those things. I do go with races where trainers and horses that I follow are in, but thats not really studying a specific race. It'd be good to know how people pick races to study though. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! I also struggle with picking a race to study and really put my efforts into. I usually end up with picking a few horses in various races but the ones that I don't back will usually go on to win!:wall its pretty frustrating sometimes but its just one of those things. I do go with races where trainers and horses that I follow are in' date=' but thats not really studying a specific race. It'd be good to know how people pick races to study though. :)[/quote'] Ya, it seems like such a simple thing but its something i cant get my head around! Id like to be able to look at the meetings, say ok im going for that race at that meeting for such and such a reason.. It does my nut in :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Yeh very frustrating! I try to eliminate races first and see what I am left with. For example tomorrow at Cheltenham I don't like the first as there are only 4 runners and I don't like the last as the odds on favourite should win. I also look through a card quickly to see if there any horses running that I may have backed last time out or maybe thought it was worth backing next time it runs. Just Benny in the last at Donny tomorrow was a horse I backed last time out who was hampered several times but still managed to finish pretty close. I thought that one was definitely worth watching for its next run. I do prefer the big meetings however and all of the other races at Cheltenham made some appeal but I eventually narrowed it down to the 2nd race which is a good looking handicap and the grade 3 race at 1.45. I probably prefer handicaps or graded races to any other type of race. In the end for me it was between Edgardo Sol in the handicap who looks to have a great chance with jockey taking off 7lbs and Knockara Beau in the 1.45. Went for Knockara Beau as he is slightly bigger price! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Good topic !..........I'm sure we all have our own methods ! I always start with the Sporting Life 'Todays racecards' or more usually 'Tomorrow's racecards' as I do my study the night before I use the Life site because it shows the number of runners in each race which the Post doesn't I note any small field handicaps say up to about 7 runners max and class 5 or better I then go to the Post site and look at those races. I begin to reduce the number further by crossing off any races with no early prices (I can't study a race without having prices) I generally cross off any races where i think the favourite will win Then I study any races left but not more than 2 races If nothing fits the bill I'll turn to a more competitive or bigger field handicap on the AW and look at just the one race I'd rather study two five runner races than one 10 runner race..........it takes the same time but you give yourself 2 chances of finding a winner I also like to look at any 'big races', ie grade or group races but I rarely go on to study them for bet purposes. If it's a small field and what i consider a false favourite I'll take more of an interest So i suppose that what I start with is field size............that's my first step Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Class 2-5 handicaps, 5f-12f, simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! What does my head in is i confuse myself and can never decide on a race to stick with and fully study... I never study races properly' date=' but after reading a very good book i have to learn discipline.. My question is, how do you pick out a specific race from the rest? [b']We cant look through every racecard, it would take too long... How do you select which race you are going to bury your mind into? Cheers Oh yes we can. I haven't missed a card for years. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Yeh agree with Trotter, as I pick them the day before, there must be early prices for the race that I am going to look at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Just having a first look at tomorrow's cards using my normal selection proceedure I'll probably start with the 12.50 at Southwell - 7 runner class 5 handicap Nothing else at Southwell appeals, nothing at Wolves but the last race, 12 runners class 4 might be my back up tho it will involve a couple of hours probably..............:p Skip Donny, it's not a track I've got much of an angle on - that brings me to another selection point. I try and stick to tracks that have something of a character to them as I reckon I can use that to whittle out runners that might not act there. Look at the 1.45 Chelt, 6 runner grade 3 handicap chase and a quick look at the 4 runner novice chase at 12.00 to see if i think the favourite might get beat Moving to the Post site there are early prices for the 12.50 Southwell but a very short price favourite, I'll only continue with that one if I think the favourite might get beat Early prices on the 1.45 Cheltenham - looks a good race to look at as no short price favourite early prices on the 12.00 Cheltenham - again look to see if the fave might not win If i can't find anything in those 3 I'll either have a day off (tempting !) or burn the midnight oil on the last at Wolves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Thanks for the feedback guys.. I think i am going to stick to races with prices up the day before, going to try stay away from minefields where the fav is 6/1, they are bookies races.. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dtrains Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Try having a list of horses you might be interested in next time out and use a tracker ATR just launched a new one, this way you wont miss a horse. Obvious disadvantage is you always want to back the horse and you kick yourself if it goes un-backed when you flagged it up as one to follow but ive been using this system for 2 years now and my profits have risen. Still study every Flat/AW meeting only select jumps meets as i hate low grade jumping but i found best jumpers stay to best tracks and best meetings which sounds obvious but yoou dont usually get a progressive hendo handicapper turning up midweek at southwell then transfering the form to a "saturday" track, so there is almost a two-tier of jumps racing and i only study the top teir if you want to look at it that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLL Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Try having a list of horses you might be interested in next time out and use a tracker ATR just launched a new one, this way you wont miss a horse. Obvious disadvantage is you always want to back the horse and you kick yourself if it goes un-backed when you flagged it up as one to follow but ive been using this system for 2 years now and my profits have risen. Still study every Flat/AW meeting only select jumps meets as i hate low grade jumping but i found best jumpers stay to best tracks and best meetings which sounds obvious but yoou dont usually get a progressive hendo handicapper turning up midweek at southwell then transfering the form to a "saturday" track, so there is almost a two-tier of jumps racing and i only study the top teir if you want to look at it that way. This is the way I've been doing it for the last few years, I've probably got alerts on a couple of hundred horses that I either think are well treated or need specific conditions (going, track, field size, etc.) to give their best performance. It helps to keep notes on horses as well so you've got something to refer to when looking at a race. I mainly bet of a weekend myself with just a few bets during the week because the quality is much better and I find this system stops me having stupid bets on horses I know nothing about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! I agree with the above about having horses to follow. I used to do the same as you Aidy, look at racecards and try to work them out on a daily basis, but I soon realised that there's not enough time to do it in that way, imo. You can't just sit down, look a race with horses you've never seen before and go through the card, it's too time consuming if you're doing it properly. I think you need to know the horses inside out. There's so many things the formbook doesn't record that you can miss and therefore leave out a horse. Trainer comments/injuries and setbacks/mistakes made that aren't noted in any formline/pace of the race (crucial for me)...these are just a few things that looking at a formbook isn't going to tell you but are important. Where/when a horse made it's move during a race also. It's why I prefer to be backing horses I watch regularly/have taken the time out to watch on the archives. Whenever I get the time I try to weigh up as many horses as I can (usually going through best handicaps/graded races from the last few months on the video archive (bet365)) and note down what trip/ground/course I think they'd be best at and (using gg.com) follow where they go and decide to bet or not. This automatically gives me a race to break down, and then I can go through the other horses in the race, see if any interest me and add them to the tracker as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! 8-10 runner races with a false favourite where you are getting paid 3 places are good betting opportunities. I usually try sticking with better class races, flat or jumps. I'll always have horses I'm following but price and circumstances dictate if I back them. Have you tried analysing your results Aidy? See what sort of races you do best in? Some of the races look like minefields, if you have a strong opinion on a certain horse in that race you might have an edge if that opinion is right. I hardly get time to watch all the days racing so most of my betting these days is weekends in group and listed races. You can glance at races and quickly see what looks like a nightmare to work out compared with others where there is some decent form to pick through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! In the last few years I've had a change of mind about 'getting to know the horses' In the past I was always looking for a small subset of the game to concentrate on and really get to know a group of horses. So I stuck with 3 mile chases, then group races, then sprint handicaps, then something else, then something else.............. It never worked for me I just found that ideas about the particular horses became lodged in my mind and blurred my vision of the race i was looking at. Plus i spent all my time keeping records about the horses and not studying todays race I've given up on that now..........I pick races as outlined above regardless of wether I've ever heard of any of the horses. I flit around the distances, classes, race types. I try and look at each race i study as a seperate event from scratch without any preconceived ideas about the horses I suppose I like to look at the race - the track, class, distance, going etc, think about 'what kind of horse might win this' then look at the runners to see if any of them fit the bill I don't go for 'Horses To Follow' or the Nag Me type of things because if a horse is running in a race that I'm not going to pick then I'm not interested. That seems to me like letting the horse pick the race that you bet on Different strokes and all that..............:ok I'm rambling on here because I'm stuggling to find anything for tomorrow...............:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! I do glance through every race because on the rare occasion I will pick something in a maiden, or a nursery, for example, if I think it's worth it. Usually, though, on days with lots of good racing (usually a Saturday), I can just blindly avoid races. So I'd wave goodbye to maiden and novice handicap races (not so against these midweek) as well as bumpers. Novice races are a bit more tolerable as most runners have already run over the jumps and I particularly favour the higher quality ones. On the flat I try to avoid sprints but that doesn't mean I rule them out altogether. I don't just find a handicap hurdle though and decide to focus on it completely. There's got to be something in the race that interests me straight away from a mere glance at the form. Often this will be a horse I'm familiar with. Recently, it hasn't, though. Even though it can be a bad thing at times, knowing horses fairly well can be crucial. For example, I found it amazing that Mr Knightley went off favourite last night at Kempton over Sonko. They were matched at the weights on ratings and whilst Mr Knightley was in form, it seemed obvious to me that he would be outspeeded by a decent speedball at the level - which he subsequently was, as he'd only won over 5f the time before because it was a dreadful race and he was hardly impressive. That sort of thing helps me a lot, so finding favourites with things going against them is also something I like to find. I don't think too strategically about it to be honest, but since the jumps season started, I've quite easily reduced my selections to 2 or 3 a day (if that) and it's going well so far so I'm quite happy. I find it a lot easier to remove races in this sphere because there are plenty of maidens, novice handicaps, bumpers, and general dire stuff (in the week). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisman Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! interesting discussion. my approach has changed recently to considering much more the 'make up' of the market for a particular race. different markets require different betting tactics I feel. A successful example of this was the 17.30 last evening at kempton. a 1 mile maiden-6 horses a heavy odds on fav Botti/Kirby. I didn't get on at an early price so the idea of a large stake for a small profit wouldn't appeal as a bet. however reading through the profiles the 2nd fav was too short priced as a potential each way selection against the favourite, but I felt that a couple of the longer priced runners may have more than a 50% chance of getting 2nd in the race-I was sure the Botti horse would win. so what was my approach here? well it's based on low liability staking but potentially high profits.What I did here was discount the 100/1 shot but divide a 1 stake unit into percentages of where I felt the horse had a chance of being 2nd to the Botti horse relative to their odds and did a straight forecast. and things came out nicely to plan. profit from the race was over 4 points for just a one point stake-definately the value bet of this particular race. 4 horse competing for 2nd place with the 2nd favourite maybe a 50/50 chance but paying potentially 4-5 times the stake . Since I've been assessing races more in this way regarding the shape of the betting market and the potential for low liability staking but high potential profits my yield is very much improved. I personally like small runner races especially on the all weather for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! i just look at a horse with the best speed ratings or good speed ratings at a track or on a surface and work backwards from there to find reasons why it could win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! 8-10 runner races with a false favourite where you are getting paid 3 places are good betting opportunities. I usually try sticking with better class races' date=' flat or jumps. I'll always have horses I'm following but price and circumstances dictate if I back them. Have you tried analysing your results Aidy? See what sort of races you do best in? Some of the races look like minefields, if you have a strong opinion on a certain horse in that race you might have an edge if that opinion is right. I hardly get time to watch all the days racing so most of my betting these days is weekends in group and listed races. You can glance at races and quickly see what looks like a nightmare to work out compared with others where there is some decent form to pick through.[/quote'] Hi Mowgli.. To be honest i treat gambling as a bit of craic, but i want to move on from that, learn and observe, read books and take the money im putting down seriously, and be far more selective.. Also going to stop doing daft trebles and accumulators as they are just too rare! Singles.. i haven never analysed my results, heck i never even analyse a race properly! But i must start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary64 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Very interesting comments. I don't bet on horses as it does seem like alot of hard work but I guess the rewards can be really good. It's great to read what people have to say and I must congratulate you all on your helpful posts. Aidy-can you let me know once you've sorted your horse betting out that you then get onto your football bets!!!:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! Very interesting comments. I don't bet on horses as it does seem like alot of hard work but I guess the rewards can be really good. It's great to read what people have to say and I must congratulate you all on your helpful posts. Aidy-can you let me know once you've sorted your horse betting out that you then get onto your football bets!!!:rollin I have my football bet of the weekend in the premier league thread, i actually studied and am sticking to 1 team per weekend! See ya around Gary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary64 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Re: How to select 1 race to concentrate on! I know you do. You are one of the people I look out for on football betting, so I hope I didn't offend :unsure. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.