UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

[biggie_mac]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December When playing under pressure, a lot of teams change their playing style, making mistakes and often rushing things. That's why most of the games tonight are way to unpredictable in my opinion. The only bet that seems pretty good to me at the moment is a multiple of the following (all at Gamebookers): Olympiacos to score @ 1.45 Shakhtior to score @ 1.25 Leverkusen to win @ 1.5A total of 2.7 I don't think a lot of reasons are needed here. I have a bad feeling about tonight's results, I sense some major surprises.

[scotty657]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

When playing under pressure, a lot of teams change their playing style, making mistakes and often rushing things. That's why most of the games tonight are way to unpredictable in my opinion. The only bet that seems pretty good to me at the moment is a multiple of the following (all at Gamebookers): Olympiacos to score @ 1.45 Shakhtior to score @ 1.25 Leverkusen to win @ 1.5A total of 2.7 I don't think a lot of reasons are needed here. I have a bad feeling about tonight's results, I sense some major surprises.

I have the same feelings and will probably play the overs markets tonight.

[becchio11]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Great picks as always :clap

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[pg_yid]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Just thinking about possible scenarios in the Chelsea v Valencia game tonight. Chelsea need a 0-0 draw or a win. Valencia need a score draw (1-1 or higher) or a win. So if Chelsea score first, Valencia need to score one goal to qualify (with a 1-1 draw). If Valencia score first though, Chelsea need to score twice, as a 1-1 draw is not enough. I am guessing that Valencia will do more of the early attacking. The longer the match goes without Valencia scoring, the more pressure will be on them, but on the other hand if Valencia score first, there will be a lot of pressure on Chelsea.

Bearing all this in mind, also Chelsea's dodgy defence, overs looks a good play I reckon. As many have said I can't imagine AVB playing for the 0-0. So both teams will be attacking from the start, and whoever goes behind needs desperately to attack, which should create more chances at both ends.

[Zlatan4Ever]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

APOEL vs Shakhtior Many players out for APOEL and big ambition from Lucescu in this one. He will want to leave UEFA with something remarkable and that should be a win in the lats match. APOEL will be without: striker Pinto (12apps 1 goal) def Paulo Jorge (7apps) suspended. Injured: Aílton (8apps 1 goal) Ivan Trickovski (7apps 1 goal) and William Boaventura (5apps 1 goal). away +0.25 AH @ 1.85 with Canbet Chelsea vs Valencia Home side surprised many people with their win in Newcastle and I congratulated myself for not touching the match. They proves to be a strong side and strong pretender to win game. Valencia will come here needing a win and will be very hard for them to do so. I do expect goals as the teams have potential to do that. 2 or 3 goals @ 2.00 with >bet365 Barcelona vs BATE Guardiola announced that Nou Camp will see new players in the team so there might be less goals than the main team produced so far. Bate will be without important striker Rodionov and I expect them to play defensively. I think 2 or 3 goals will be what we shall see here. 2 or 3 goals @ 2.10 with >bet365 Plzen vs Milan Originally I wanted to chose a Milan DNB, but than I realized that will not be many goals here, but some there ill be. Milan is Milan and will want to not lose the match. To be sure of that they will must score. Plzen showed a class over BATE, but 4 under Barca. This time, they will play against a much weaker Milan with many absentees: Alberto Aquilani is suspended. Mark van Bommel missed the Genoa game with a swollen knee; Pato was a late withdrawal with flu. Christian Abbiati has a dislocated shoulder, Alessandro Nesta a pelvic injury, Philippe Mexès a broken hand and Mathieu Flamini knee ligament damage. Antonio Cassano is recovering from heart surgery and Gennaro Gattuso also injured. Expect a tight game and 2 or 3 goals @ 1.95 with >bet365 Genk vs Leverkusen away side must win to win the group. Maybe was a dream to win this group, but here they are, first in tables, one point ahead, with their fate in their own hands, in front of Chelsea and Valencia. Cannot lose the qualification now, but still needing a win for being first in tables. Genk is having just 2 points and is defeated even by Beerschot 0-2. expect them to be decent and not been defeated by many goals. 2 or 3 goals @ 2.0 with >bet365

Can someone kindly explain what away +0.25 AH @ 1.85 is???? I'm not able to play this on Italian books and sincerely never understood what it means...

[crannsafc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December I was looking at a treble of Chelsea, Barcelona and AC Milan @5/1 what do you guys think about barcelona and milan? i know both will put a weakened team out as they are both already qualified, but do they have enough quality to overcome the opponents? Chelsea will win in my opinion as they haven't lost in 25 champions league group games at home, winning 19 and drawing 6. Any input on barcelona and milan is appreciated.

[skyblues88]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

I was looking at a treble of Chelsea, Barcelona and AC Milan @5/1 what do you guys think about barcelona and milan? i know both will put a weakened team out as they are both already qualified, but do they have enough quality to overcome the opponents? Chelsea will win in my opinion as they haven't lost in 25 champions league group games at home, winning 19 and drawing 6. Any input on barcelona and milan is appreciated.

Would have thought Barcelona's "weaker" team is far too good for Bate so def a win. Not sure on Milan though. The odds of 13/10 for Milan is tempting but Milan do have quite a few injuries aswell.

[Zlatan4Ever]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

I was looking at a treble of Chelsea, Barcelona and AC Milan @5/1 what do you guys think about barcelona and milan? i know both will put a weakened team out as they are both already qualified, but do they have enough quality to overcome the opponents? Chelsea will win in my opinion as they haven't lost in 25 champions league group games at home, winning 19 and drawing 6. Any input on barcelona and milan is appreciated.

For A.C. Milan I would play BOTH TO SCORE @ 1.70 (totosi) due to the fact that Milan's probable line up should be: MILAN: Amelia, De Sciglio, Bonera, Mexes, Taiwo, Ambrosini, Emanuelson, Nocerino, Seedorf, Robinho, Pato. According to my point of view this defense should represent ZER0 stability. Pato-Robinho should score one sooner or later... BARCA I would play OVER 2.5 GOALS...@ 1.48, they have a competitive young team...Although only Piquè is playing look at the probable line-ups: BARCELLONA: Pinto, Montoya, Fontas, Pique, Maxwell, Thiago Alcantara, Dos Santos, Sergi Roberto, Deulofeu, Pedro, Cuenca. All great promises/players... Cuenca is pretty impressive. I've seen him play last week...the rest are all good players starting from Montoya, which Luis Enrique wanted to bring to Rome, Dos Santos which is benched because of Fabregas, Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets,Sanchez etc... Chelsea is OVER 2.5 goals for me/ both to score @1.72/1.83 (totosi) Two teams that deperately want to go on...

[slizorn]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Chelsea vs Valencia There has been Under 5.5 Cards in 6 out of 7 of Chelsea's last home games. There also have been Under 5.5 Cards in 5 out of 6 of Valencia's last away games. The referee for this match is Gianluca Rocchi and there has been Under 5.5 Cards in his last 5 games. 6pts Under 5.5 Cards @ 1.83 Bet365 Apoel Nicosia vs Shaktar Donetsk Simple bet based on statistics. All 5 of Apoel's and all 5 of Shaktar's games in the Champions League this season have had Over 3.5 Cards in them. It is easily the overs for me. 6pts Over 3.5 Cards @ 2.00 Bet365

[crannsafc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Yeh was thinking that too, Abbiati, Pato, Aquillaini and Van Bommel are all out. Gonna make me mind up before 7:30 :P Outsider for tonight aswell is: Olympiacos vs Arsenal Arsenal at 3/1 is a great price, considered Wenger said "he will respect the competition and field a team with experience but handing some youngsters a chance" Arsenal are in great form at the moment 3/1 is too good to turn down. Dortmund vs Marseille Marseille at 4/1 is a good price considering Dortmund just haven't clicked this year in the champions league, Marseille will want to make sure the 2nd sport in the group remains their spot. As a double: 19/1 skybet

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Can someone kindly explain what away +0.25 AH @ 1.85 is???? I'm not able to play this on Italian books and sincerely never understood what it means...

+ 0.25 means half your stake goes on the + 0.5 Asian Handicap, and the other half goes on a + 0 AH, which is the same as a draw no bet. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_handicap :ok

[pg_yid]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Can someone kindly explain what away +0.25 AH @ 1.85 is???? I'm not able to play this on Italian books and sincerely never understood what it means...

It means if the away side wins then you win the bet, and if it is a draw you half win the bet, i.e. you make a profit but only half as much as if the away side had won. So if you played £100, you would win £85 if they won, and £42.50 if it was a draw.

[babypunter]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Agree with you guys. For everyone who had intention to put serious money into this round I suggest not to do it. I was thinking a lot of Genk - Leverkusen match where everyone is putting Lever 2 steps ahead along with bookies who gave them around 1.5 for win. Genk does have bad run in CL but we all know whats the most important for Belgian teams. God knows football and play for the game is not. To be honest, I believe that Genk does have the quality to be an equal opponent tonight. It is just about how they are going to approach to this match. The same way they did versus Valencia or they are gonna draw like they did it with Chelsea? Chelsea is not a team you can negotiate with. Their coach is Mourinho's pupil who treats football the same way Spartans treated war. He doesn't sell his games and cares about reputation more than results. Come clean and stay clean no matter what haters say about you. On the opposite side of Chelsea we have Lever who are not typical German team like Bayern. Bayern will die on the field and will always go for one goal more no matter if they are playing home or away. Lever are aware of their group situation and familiar with Genk's management. Taking all this into consideration I concluded that I can't bet 1x2 on this game. It simply doesn't have sense with Belgian team playing in the last round of a competition where tie brings around 4 00 000 euros. I expect bad game from these two teams tonight with 0-2 goals.

[Zlatan4Ever]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

3 IMPORTANT POINTS

De Bruyne, Masuero, Hubert, Simaeys e Joneleit... all players that Genk is missing for a long time. ALMOST SINCE THE BEGINING OF THE SEASON... Genk lost the last 2 games in Belgium Pro-League Bayer Leverkusen wants to avoid Real Madrid, Barca and all teams that will finish 1st in their group. ENOUGH REASONS to make it a German beer feast??

[Draperhill]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Although this is not 'exactly' the right thread for this speculative bet, tonight's match has an impact on it! Next Premier League Manager To Go - Villas-Boas @6.00 Skybet With the January transfer window on the horizon and the very real possibility of Chelsea exiting The Champions League for the first ever time before Christmas. I think this is a great speculative bet especially because Abramovich has never shown patience to previous Managers and along with a failing Premier League campaign where Chelsea have a real fight on for a Top 4 place. I think Abramovich's patience with Villas-Boas will have worn out if they fail tonight and with Hiddink currently unemployed Abramovich may make a change sooner rather than later!

[grieksken]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December De bruyne is injured since last week, he fell out. Masuero is a new guy and only played 1 game or so for Genk Simaeys probably will be back today just so you know... could be they lose but they've done good in the champions league (in home games) for now so.. I'm just going for a under 2.5 goals scored. Genk's attack is injured. De Bruyne, (creativity) is injured. Ogunjimi is already gone because of his injury and Vossen is injured or at least doubtfull... I don't see them scoring actually and defending really good so..

[SgtTr]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December I saw the match between Valencia and Chelsea, and Chelsea could have won, for large parts of the game they looked like the home side. Their recent form has not been eye catching but from match reports it seems they were unlucky at Leverkusen. They are under pressure to have a positive result tonight but I am of the opinion that they will win partly to exorcise the demons of that Chelsea-Barca match where they had 4 valid penalty appeals turned down. I will bet on HT/FT Chelsea/Chelsea 2.62 Ladbrokes.

[wprathead]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Genk - Bayer Leverkusen Genk to win corners @ 12/5 on Bet365 or Genk +2 to win corners @ 11/10 on Bet365 Genk drew corner match with both Chelsea and Valencia at home, and beat Bayer in Germany on corner count. Bayer lost 7/8 corner matches when away in Bundelsiga. While they won the corner match away in Valencia, they lost at Chelsea.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

I was looking at a treble of Chelsea, Barcelona and AC Milan @5/1 what do you guys think about barcelona and milan? i know both will put a weakened team out as they are both already qualified, but do they have enough quality to overcome the opponents? Chelsea will win in my opinion as they haven't lost in 25 champions league group games at home, winning 19 and drawing 6. Any input on barcelona and milan is appreciated.

Forget about the tempting 5/1 odds, and look at each individual bet and ask would you bet on it? Is it good value? That's the best way to ensure you get the best chance of winning rather than losing. And of course, remember that, unless you choose a 2-way or 'Asian' bet, each match has three outcomes - win, draw and lose.

[EU45Antifoul]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Why is this table showing Chelsea above valencia ????? http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/standings/round=2000263/group=2001389/index.html

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Chelsea vs Valencia There has been Under 5.5 Cards in 6 out of 7 of Chelsea's last home games. There also have been Under 5.5 Cards in 5 out of 6 of Valencia's last away games. The referee for this match is Gianluca Rocchi and there has been Under 5.5 Cards in his last 5 games. 6pts Under 5.5 Cards @ 1.83 Bet365 Apoel Nicosia vs Shaktar Donetsk Simple bet based on statistics. All 5 of Apoel's and all 5 of Shaktar's games in the Champions League this season have had Over 3.5 Cards in them. It is easily the overs for me. 6pts Over 3.5 Cards @ 2.00 Bet365

Both tempting. But - Chelsea v Valencia is a real crunch game with both sides in with a good chance of qualifying, which I think will probably mean more cards than average. And the Apoel v Shakhtar game is a dead rubber, with nothing riding on the game, which suggests there might be fewer cards than normal.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Why is this table showing Chelsea above valencia ????? http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/standings/round=2000263/group=2001389/index.html

Because they played 1-1 in Valencia which means Chelsea leads on away goals.

[pg_yid]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Bearing all this in mind' date=' also Chelsea's dodgy defence, overs looks a good play I reckon. As many have said I can't imagine AVB playing for the 0-0. So both teams will be attacking from the start, and whoever goes behind needs desperately to attack, which should create more chances at both ends.[/quote'] I have taken the overs @ 1.89 (Betfair). Looks too good to be true, which might turn out to be the case I guess!

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Why is this table showing Chelsea above valencia ????? http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/standings/round=2000263/group=2001389/index.html

I think it's down to away goals in 'head-to-head' matches between the sides. The game in Spain ended Valencia 1 Chelsea 1, so Chelsea have one head-to-head away goal and Valencia none. If tonight's game ends 0-0, Chelsea maintain this advantage and finish above Valencia. If tonight's game ends 1-1, then the two teams are level on head-to-head away goals, and goal difference in group matches applies, meaning Valencia finish above Chelsea - Valencia's goal difference is +8 and Chelsea's +6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_UEFA_Champions_League#Group_stage

[Lionrock]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Why does everyone think Bayer have already qualified and Chelsea are out if a scoredraw??? Sick of reading it on so called 'expert' articles. If Chelsea/Valencia scoredraw and Bayer lose.....we have all 3 teams on 9pts....but BOTH Chelsea and Valencia have better H2H records vs Bayer so it would finish..... 1st Valencia 2nd Chelsea 3rd Bayer Yes??!

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Just thinking about possible scenarios in the Chelsea v Valencia game tonight. Chelsea need a 0-0 draw or a win. Valencia need a score draw (1-1 or higher) or a win. So if Chelsea score first, Valencia need to score one goal to qualify (with a 1-1 draw). If Valencia score first though, Chelsea need to score twice, as a 1-1 draw is not enough. I am guessing that Valencia will do more of the early attacking. The longer the match goes without Valencia scoring, the more pressure will be on them, but on the other hand if Valencia score first, there will be a lot of pressure on Chelsea.

Bearing this in mind, I am tempted by the odds on Valencia corners. Valencia have won 30 corners in their 5 group games versus Chelsea's 21 - http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2012/matches/round=2000263/match=2007649/index.html and with Valencia needing a goal, it seems likely that they will do more of the early attacking, with Chelsea being more cautious and trying to keep possession. So Bet 365's odds of 2.62 on 'Race to 3 Corners: Valencia' looks good value. If Valencia don't score early on I think it is quite likely that they will get more corners in the match, making 3.4 for them to have 'Most Corners' good value. (If Valencia do score early on, then that would scupper these bets as Chelsea would probably start attacking Valencia). There are various other corner bets available like 'Most Corners First Half' and 'Number of Away Team First half corners'. It's important to remember that most of these are 3-way bets - e.g. if you bet on 'Most Corners: Valencia' and the corner count is 5 corners each, you lose :eyes

[ValueHunter]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Chelsea v Valencia This could easily be called the game of the season for both sides. It looks like Valencia will have no real competition for the 3rd place in Spain, whilst the EPL title seems to be a mirage for the Blues at this stage of the season. I will pay more attention to Valencia in my analysis considering the fact I have a soft spot for them and watched over 90% of their games during the last two seasons. Missing for Valencia are Canales (long term injury) and Ever Banega. Contradictory information is coming about center backs Victor Ruiz and Ricardo Costa which were mentioned to be doubtful but apparently both of them will be sidelined giving the chance to Dealbert to start. This would destroy the regular center-back couple in the likes of Rami and Ruiz which may bring a lot of problems to the Spaniards. Dealbert’s class in my opinion is way below CL level, not to mention for a tie with such an importance. Emeri successfully adopted a tactic with two full backs playing on the left wing in big games like this. Mathieu and Alba who are left backs by presumption occupy the left side of the pitch switching their positions. Alba has a great pace and often bothers opponent’s defenders with his raids while Mathieu relies more on physics. Looking a bit chuckle at times the Frenchman somehow manages to find free spaces on the wing and delivers more than decent crosses. I remember at least 2 of the goals in the last two games against Barcelona came after Matheau’s assists. At the same time having two backs in this zone of the field makes it more secure and opponents struggle to break through it. There is no doubt who will be the main threat for Chelsea’s defense tonight, in form Soldado with 14 goals this season (9 in La Liga, 5 in CL) will be looking to improve his goal count. Valencia top scorer was rested during the weekend, he was fielded in the last 15 mins to score and bring the victory to his side. Albelda, Fegholi and Jonas were on the bench in the last game as well which makes me think they will be in the starting line-up tonight. I expect the following formation for Valencia: --------------------------D.Alves------------------------------- Bruno/Miguel ------- Rami ------ Dealbert --------------------Alba ------------------Albelda ------------T.Costa --------------------- Fegholi -------- ----------Jonas---------------------------Mathieu -------------------------Soldado--------------------------------- I mentioned a few positives of Valencia, let me add some more. Jonas improved his form of late. Despite he was meant to be one of the top scorers coming as the best goalscorer in the Brazilian league, he turned out to be one of the key assistants in the team and also delivered a few goals lately. Two talented wingers will probably remain on the bench for Valencia in the likes of Pablo Piatti and Pablo Hernandez. It’s highly probable to see them coming in If the game is not going well for Los Che. Now about the negatives, I already mentioned my concerns about Dealbert. Migual is another concern of mine if he starts of course. Yes, no doubt the Portuguese brings a lot of wide in Valencia’s attack with his raids on the right wing but he often leaves huge gaps behind himself which could be easily exploited. The missings of Banega and Canales are also bad news for Emeri, given that the Argentinian and the young Spaniard are probably the most creative players in the midfield for Valencia. Having an eye on Valencia, I can say that they failed to score only twice in 19 games this season (14 La Liga games, 5 CL games) – against Sevilla and Genk. In most of the games Valencia scored the first goal, I personally remember a few games that Valencia failed to open the score. These were against Real Madrid, the reverse fixture against Chelsea at Mestalla and the game against Sevilla where Valencia lost 0-1. My observations show that The Bats normally bring out a great performance during the first half followed by a significant drop in their form during the second half. I can’t figure out the reasons for this fact, are they mental, tactical or fitness related. But it’s a fact that Valencia outplayed Barca in the first 60 minutes, leading 2-1 at half time. The game ended in a 2-2 draw as Barcelona had the chance to take the win in the late minutes. The same thing happened in Germany where Valencia lost the game against Leverkusen after leading 1-0 at half time. Not just leading but dominating the game with more than 10 shots on goal for the first 45 mins. The picture was completely different during the second half. I will stay away of this game due to my bias. But given that Valencia needs to win or to held a score-draw in order to proceed plus the abovementioned analysis I will make a few recommendations. Valencia to open the score @2.87; Valencia to win the first half @5.00; Chelsea to win from behind @7.00 bet365 Making those tips I also took in mind that Chelsea often find themselves in a losing position after the first half.

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Why does everyone think Bayer have already qualified and Chelsea are out if a scoredraw??? Sick of reading it on so called 'expert' articles. If Chelsea/Valencia scoredraw and Bayer lose.....we have all 3 teams on 9pts....but BOTH Chelsea and Valencia have better H2H records vs Bayer so it would finish..... 1st Valencia 2nd Chelsea 3rd Bayer Yes??!

No, Bayer Leverkusen would win the group if Chelsea and Valencia draw. It's because of the points records in the matches between the clubs if all three finish level on 9 points. Leverkusen have won 6 points from their games against Chelsea and Valencia. If Chelsea and Valencia draw tonight, they will each have 5 points from matches between the three. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_UEFA_Champions_League_group_stage

[jompy]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December Olympiacos - Arsenal First of all there are 2 main reasons to bet against Arsenal here. First of all is that Arsene Wenger is coming to Greece with mised B squad and will field only 1 or 2 players that won over Wigan in last Premier League round with 0:4 Wenger played with similar squad against Man City at home for the Cup, showing that he is fully focused on his Premier League performance, and lost from City with 0;1. Also with Fabianski, and in front of him young and unexperienced players like Yennaris Djourou, Squillaci, Miquel and Coquelin, I expect huge troubles for Arsenal defense, as they are gonna meet strong motivated home side as Olympiacos with huge chances to win progress to the next stage with eventual win tonight. Oly is strong home side and will field their best tonight. They are 5-2-0 here in their last 7 games at home, with 2 straight clean sheets. Oly will have huge support from the crwods and also will try to repeat their performance against Dortmund earlier in CL , when they smashed the German champions with 3:1. Oly played clever in London and missed the chance to grab point there, but tonight I fancy them as the favourites Olympiacos(-0.25)AH 1.62 @ Canbet

[MPLouis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6th December

Genk vs Leverkusen away side must win to win the group.

No they don't. If Chelsea and Valencia draw, Leverkusen win the group even if they lose tonight.