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homunculus

Tennis 17-23 Oct

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Moscow matches start in a couple of hours, so I started the thread myself. In week #42 there are four tournaments on I-hard ATP 250: Cremlin Cup, Moscow, Russia ------------------------------------- The two top seeds are Serbs Tipsarevic and Troicki. Last year winner is Troicki, who defeated Baghdatis in the final. Baghdatis does not attend this tournament because he plays in Stockholm this week. ATP 250: IF Stockholm Open, Stockholm, Sweden ------------------------------------------------ The two top seeded are Monfils and Del Potro. Last year winner is Roger Federer (who does not play here this year) who defeated Florian Mayer in the final (Mayer, too, does not play here this year). And attention please! Tommy Robredo makes another occurrence as seed No 8!!!. WTA Premier: Cremlin Cup, Moscow, Russia ------------------------------------------ Top seeded are Zvonareva and Agnieszka Radwanska. Last year winner is Azarenka (who does not attend this tournament this year because she plays in Luxembourg) who defeated Maria Kirilenko in the final (does not attend this tournament this year, plays in Luxembourg, too} WTA International: BGL BNP Paribas Luxembourg Open, Luxembourg, Luxembourg ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- The two top seeds are Azarenka and Pavlyuchenkova. Last year winner is Roberta Vinci (does not play here this year, because she is in Moscow) that did beat Julia Goerges (seed No 6 this year) in the final.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Last year I tried the following scheme in WTA Cremlin Cup: In the first round I played 1 unit on every underdog with odds higher than 2.500 on Pinnacle. This approach worked in last four years, there was loss in year 2006: Year 2010: 6 upsets with sum of odds = 20.38 , 11 events with odds >= 2,5 -profit 9.38 (GAIN) Year 2009: 5 upsets with sum of odds = 18.58 , 13 events with odds >= 2,5 -profit 5.58 (GAIN) Year 2008: 2 upsets with sum of odds = 10,40 , 4 events with odds >= 2,5 - profit 6,40 (GAIN) Year 2007: 3 upsets with sum of odds = 11.22 , 9 events with odds >= 2.5 - profit 2,22 (GAIN) Year 2006: 3 upsets with sum of odds 8.53 , 11 events with odds >= 2.5 - profit -2.47 (LOSS) I am going to try this this year again, folow at your own risk. Matches available so far that meet the criterium on Pinnacle are: Hercog to bt Cibulkova @2.600 Kudryavtseva to bt Vesnina @2.570 Errani to bt Kanepi @2.680 Rodina to bt Petrova @3.460 Playing all four at 1u

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Hi guys, 2 picks for WTA tournaments: LUXEMBOURG: MEDINA TO DEFEAT KREMER BY 2:0 SETS @ 1.53 on ladbrokes MOSCOW: PERVAK TO DEFEAT GAJDOSOVA @ 1.83 on stanjames Veteran Kremer has no tools to defeat very consistent Medina who is in good form. Pervak playing at home has a consistent and powerful game from the baseline to force a lot of errors from the very erratic Gajdosova.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct WTA Cremlin Cup R1 underdog scheme update The qualifiers are known by now, so I am adding Savchuk to bt Zakopalova @3.180 Ivanova to bt Jankovic @9.44 Cornet to bt Kuznetsova @3.90 Parra Santonja to bt Safarova @5.25 Playing all four at 1u

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Sport Tennis Event Ramos - Tursunov Selection Over 22.5 Strength 10/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.05 Reasoning Look like a three sets match. Ramos in last weeks find very good form, is very dangerous player not only on clay surface. Close match against Almagro or Dolgpolov are good for him. Nice serve. Tursunov is experience, local player with big serve, if have good day can be unbreakable for the everyone. Dimtry motivation must be high here. I see close match, for Tursunov. Sport Tennis Event Mannarino - Dodig Selection Over 22 Strength 10/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00 Reasoning Too low line. Adrian Mannarino is very gifted player, few months ago been in TOP50, concended top form, but this is dangerous player to beat. Many good matches on this surface and classy serve. Dodig is favourite here, but not made too many good results in last time. Serve is the biggest weapon for her, nothing more in this moment. Dodig can win this, but in straight sets. Sport Tennis Event Garcia Lopez - Anderson Selection Over 22 Strength 10/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00 Reasoning In bookies opinion Anderson is big favourite of this match, but for me no. Guillermo can find good serve stats on surface like this, in this season been in QF at Zagreb courts and in previous season won tournament in Bangkok. Anderson is big server, but don't have big experience on Indoor hard courts tournaments and can be problem for him. Anderson play many TBs, why not today? Sport Tennis Event Rochus - Blake Selection Over 22.5 Strength 10/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00 Reasoning Too low line, I think about 23/23.5 here. Both players are very experience, both players feel very good on surface like here. Both are in very good form, Rochus played in Rennes Final on Indoor hard surface, Blake played in Final at Sacremento hard courts. Both serving very good and on this surface I don't see many break points. Match without clear winner, close game. Sport Tennis Event Malisse - Nalbandian Selection Over 21 Strength 10/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00 Reasoning Too low line for sure Two very experience indoor hard players. Nalbandian in last time showing better form than Xavier, but Malisse is big server and can't be easy to beat on this surface. Nalbandian sometimes making awful service games and for me can't win this match in straight sets. Two close, or three sets here. Upset is possible, too Sport Tennis Event Lajovic - Bogomolov Selection Over 19.5 Strength 10/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 1.85 Reasoning Too low line. Lajovic is young, gifted player who played in Q here, won three matches in good style, yesterday beat TOP100 Istomin in three sets. Show big serve here. Bogomolov is favourite here, but I don't see trash here or something. Don't have match practice and can have small problems with timing on this surface. Bogmolov in 3 Sport Tennis Event Baghdatis - Raonic Selection Over 23 Strength 10/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90 Reasoning Too low line for this bet. Indoor Hard surface in Stockholm is really fast, I don't see too man y break points. Baghdatis in last wekend played three sets against the hottest player in this momet Andy Murray. Raonic in previous weekend show great serve power against Llodra and Ferrer. Made many aces. I see close three sets, TBs or something are possible

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Kremlin Cup, Moscow, Russia - Indoor Gilles Muller (Lux) vs Konstantin Kravchuk (RUS) Pick: Kravchuk win at least one set @ 2.00 Bwin 4/10 Muller played in France , Rennes - previous week and lost to local man Roger Vaselin, now against russian player in Moscow he dont have good record : 67 67 lost, 46 24 retired both on hard 2010 year. In my oppinion Kravchuk will get one set, and why not the final win.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Event Martic P.- Pironkova T. Selection Pironkova T. Strength 10/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 2.15 Reasoning Well didnt see Pironkova for awhile on the scene.Concidering her stats and play i can say that shes coming here in pretty bad shape,the only surface which was successful for her this year is grass of course Wimbledon where shes always giving her best,as a matter of fact in 2R she beat Petra Martic there by two straight sets 6:1,6:4 and now she will be looking for her second and first indoors victory this year.On the other side Petra is more efficient shes a baseliner whose favorite shot is serve,favorite surface is hard but Pironkova is a player who can get hot at anny moment and be deadly to annyone.Well Pironkova is mutch better on the net and she can play mutch better tennis.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct

SportTennis
EventBaghdatis v Raonic
SelectionBaghdatis
Strength10/10
Date18/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price>Victor Chandler @ 1.75
ReasoningI like Baghdatis here, he seems to be in some reasonable form lately. He won this event in 2009 and this is his first time back so should be looking forward to the tournament. Raonic is coming back from injury and what I've seen from him he appears to be scratching for form. He could still be quite over valued from his exploits earlier in the year when he was in absolute peak form.
SportTennis
EventTursunov v Ramos
SelectionTursunov
Strength10/10
Date18/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price>Pinnacle Sports @ 1.73
ReasoningI like Tursunov a lot in this match. Playing in Russia should be motivated and form is not so bad. Ramos has very limited experience on hard courts or indoors, and I think he will struggle with the pace. Ramos has been doing ok lately on faster surfaces but I feel this will be a bad match up for him in this match.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Event Date Krumm K. - Halep S. Selection Date Krumm K. Strength 7/10 Date 18/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 2.50 Reasoning Luxembourg WTA (indoors) Am going to risk a bit this one and take a bet on Date.So let me be clear,she is in total distaster.She is coming here with 5 defeats in a row.Also she is unsuccessful on all fields (courts) except this one indoors looking for her first victory.But this 42 years old charismatic wild card can be extremely deadly,she will now face very young 21 years old Simona Halep who is not in best shape.Date is a experienced player who can be mutch better in game and on the net.She can return and brak anny serve.Am taking on Date.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Event Benneteau J. - Donskoy E. Selection +5.5 Donskoy E. (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 19/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price 10bet @ 1.70 Reasoning Benneteau is a absolute favourite in this match.But recently Benneteau had a very hard tempo,in fact he just came from Rennes (finals). Last two weeks were really exhausting,first finals in Mons challenger and after defeating Rochus in finals 6-4, 6-3 he took the Rennes challenger.Now in first round in Moscow he will face young Russian player Evgeny Donskoy.21 year oldy Evgeny prefers to play on clay and hard courts but this year he was more efficient playing on clay 37/19 on hard 7/5,with long rallies and beckheand down the line he can be a bit problematic to Julien. His fresh full of energy and playing at home soil.I believe he can cover this handy.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct

EventVesnina E.- Kudryavtseva A.
SelectionVesnina E.
Strength10/10
Date19/10/2011
Bookmaker/PricePinnacle Sports @ 1.65
ReasoningHead to head 1:1.Vesnina to take over the lead.Well she is coming pretty much in downtrend of last 10 matches played she won just two of them Jankovic in New Haven and Buchina three months ago,shes also looking for hers first indoors victory.I concider Vesnina mutch better pleyer,her stayl of game i also think that this surfaces will more suited to Vesnina.I could also say that shes more of a player then Kudryavtseva which tennis didnt impressed me.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Been away for a couple of weeks. Back into the fray with this small bet ... - James Blake +4 games AH (v Juan Martin Del Potro in Stockholm) @ 1.962 with Pinnacle - grade C bet This should be a very interesting encounter for all tennis fans, as it's our first sighting of Del Potro for some time. I also feel it offers up a good bet too, with the bookies being a little too generous for my liking on Blake. The American is evidently not the force of old, but he's worked hard this year to be more competitive than he was in 2010. He's ran a couple of top players fairly close and has won some confidence back on the American hard courts at Challenger level. He defeated Olivier Rochus in R1 and played decently enough going by the stats. He served 17 aces over two sets and created numerous chances on the Belgian's serve. Of course, Del Potro is going to be a much harder assignment, but I don't think the Argentine will steamroller Blake. He's been out of action since the US Open, bar a fleeting Davis Cup appearance, and this year has been more about him getting a year under his belt after a serious wrist injury. He has played well at times in 2011, but he still lacks total belief in his forehand and he's barely played indoors, which should hinder him a little today. Del Potro leads the H2H 2-1 but has never crushed the American. They played an epic in Australia a few years ago and most recently, the Argentine won 7-6 6-4 in LA. Blake doesn't often lie down to Del Potro, a fact worth taking into consideration here. Del Potro does have the tools to totally dismantle Blake on his day, but coming off a break, in conditions he hasn't played in much, I reckon the American can maintain a decent standard and run him close.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Hi guys, 1 pick for WTA tournament. LUXEMBOURG: MEDINA -2 GAMES HANDICAP TO DEFEAT NICULESCU @ 1.95 on pinnaclesports Medina in great form last couple of months and confirming her form by 6:0 6:0 in first round here. Medina has 2 easy wins over Niculescu and she is just much more consistent player and also will move Niculescu around the corners and Niculescu has difficulties to reach those corners with double-handed shots.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Event Safarova L. - Radwanska A. Selection +6.5 Safarova L. (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 19/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price 10bet @ 1.59 Reasoning Radwanska is coming here from a fantastic series,she has two finals in a row or should i say two tournaments won.First Tokyo and then Beijing,crushing hers opponents.She is a huge favourite in this match but very interesting is that Safarova always afforded problems to her.In head to head Safarova leads by 4:1 and all matches very just one hell of a fight.Safarova is a good player,this year she she was in finals in Copenhagen (indoors tournament) defeated by Wozniacki C.Shes playing very good at indoors 9/4 and for Radwanska this is hers first match.Safarova can cover this handy.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Event Ivanovic A.- Razzano V. Selection +6.5 Razzano V. (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 19/10/2011 Bookmaker/Price 10bet @ 1.60 Reasoning Ana Ivanovic takes on Virginie Razzano in the first round of the BGL BNP Paribas Luxembourg Open,looking for her second title...crowned champion back in 2007.Judging by the recent weeks shes playing very good tennis and Razzano will have to struggle alot to achive something from this match.A interesting thing is that Ivanovic had a injury in Beijing about a week ago,i dont know what specific kind of problem is here and how problematic is but i know that she retired having problems in left thigh.Razzano is a very good player which can provide big probles to Ivanovic.She good on hard and indoors ready to struggle here.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct WTA Cremlin Cup R1 underdog scheme 2011 summary Hercog to bt Cibulkova @2.600 LOSS Kudryavtseva to bt Vesnina @2.570 LOSS Errani to bt Kanepi @2.680 LOSS Rodina to bt Petrova @3.460 LOSS Savchuk to bt Zakopalova @3.180 LOSS Ivanova to bt Jankovic @9.44 WIN Cornet to bt Kuznetsova @3.90 LOSS Parra Santonja to bt Safarova @5.25 LOSS the overall profit is 9.44 - 8 = 1.44u Looking forward to 2012 WTA Cremlin Cup. This is probably all for me this week, because I shall spend some time curing the heart attack I got after going BIG on Kanepi (vs Schiavone) LIVE in the first set :beer

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Been away for a couple of weeks. Back into the fray with this small bet ... - James Blake +4 games AH (v Juan Martin Del Potro in Stockholm) @ 1.962 with Pinnacle - grade C bet This should be a very interesting encounter for all tennis fans, as it's our first sighting of Del Potro for some time. I also feel it offers up a good bet too, with the bookies being a little too generous for my liking on Blake. The American is evidently not the force of old, but he's worked hard this year to be more competitive than he was in 2010. He's ran a couple of top players fairly close and has won some confidence back on the American hard courts at Challenger level. He defeated Olivier Rochus in R1 and played decently enough going by the stats. He served 17 aces over two sets and created numerous chances on the Belgian's serve. Of course, Del Potro is going to be a much harder assignment, but I don't think the Argentine will steamroller Blake. He's been out of action since the US Open, bar a fleeting Davis Cup appearance, and this year has been more about him getting a year under his belt after a serious wrist injury. He has played well at times in 2011, but he still lacks total belief in his forehand and he's barely played indoors, which should hinder him a little today. Del Potro leads the H2H 2-1 but has never crushed the American. They played an epic in Australia a few years ago and most recently, the Argentine won 7-6 6-4 in LA. Blake doesn't often lie down to Del Potro, a fact worth taking into consideration here. Del Potro does have the tools to totally dismantle Blake on his day, but coming off a break, in conditions he hasn't played in much, I reckon the American can maintain a decent standard and run him close.
Blake d. Del Potro 6-4 6-4 :ok Very straightforward win for the American. Handicap never looked threatened. Del Potro still has a long way to go, which is sad for the sport.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Good shout Atko :cheers Had £50 on the handicap with VC @ 4/5 after reading your views earlier today! That will give me some playing money for both golf events tomorrow! Well Done Sir! :clap

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct

Sport Tennis
Event Janko Tipsarevic - Igor Kunitsyn
Selection Igor Kunitsyn
Strength 5/10
Date 20/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 5.04
Reasoning Janko Tipsarevic is a big favorite in this match but not in my opinion. I think Igor Kunitsyn can beat him. Janko doesn't like play against Igor. They played four times on hardcourt and Tipsarevic won two matches. Tipsarevic won tournament in Kuala Lumpur but next he lost two matches in the first round - in Tokyo and in Shanghai. Igor Kunitsyn likes play in Moscow - he played in the quarterfinal in the last year. It is not important tournament for Janko Tipsarevic - he lost in the first round in the last year - motivation is not high. The surface is specific. In my opinion Janko can have problems in this match.
Sport Tennis
Event Ivan Dodig - David Nalbandian
Selection Ivan Dodig
Strength 10/10
Date 20/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.99
Reasoning I think Ivan Dodig will win. David Nalbandian leads 1-0 in head-to-head series. They played at ATP Tokyo this year and Nalbandian won in two sets (first after tie-break). Ivan possesses a huge service! I don't see many break points for David Nalbandian but many free points for Ivan. Nalbandian does not feel good here. In the first round he had big problems against Xavier Malisse. The match lasted 161 minutes so Nalbandian can feel tired. Ivan Dodig' serve looks great - 19 aces in the last match! He feels here very nice! In the last tear he played in the quarterfinal here (he won 5 matches in a row!). For me odd is great and I take it!
Sport Tennis
Event Gael Monfils - Bernard Tomic
Selection Bernard Tomic
Strength 10/10
Date 20/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 2.75
Reasoning In my opinion it will be very difficult match for Gael Monfils. It will be the first meeting between these players. Monfils had health problems. He didn't play at ATP Beijing. Gael has problems with his right knee. Bernard Tomic is a very good, talented player. He is in good shape. Tomic defeated two good players in Shangai - Kevin Anderson and Mardy Fish. His service is really hard to break. He plays very good in rallies, too. It is not important tournament for Gael Monfils. He has never played here. Motivation is not high. Tomic played one match on this surface so I give him more chances!
Sport Tennis
Event Ana Ivanovic - Anne Keothavong
Selection Anne Keothavong
Strength 5/10
Date 20/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price Bwin @ 7.00
Reasoning Ana Ivanovic should be a favorite in this match but odd for Anne Keothavong's win is too high for me. I see big value here. It will be first meeting between these players. Ivanovic played against a weak player in the first round (Virginie Razzano) but had problems. She won first set after tie-break. Her service looks indifferently - 6 double faults, 2 aces. Anne Keothavong likes play here. She played in the semifinal in the last year. What is more she defeated Virginie Razzano in the first round 6-1 6-4! Motivation must be high! She likes play on this surface. She has won 4 matches in a row in Luxembourg. Odd at bwin is pretty nice and I see big value here.

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Re: Tennis 17-23 Oct Davydenko has a big cloud over his head, would not go near him, never know when his next "fixed match" will take place. Coupled with the very strange bettign going on with Berrers first match, I wouldnt be surprised if this is scripted.

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