BBOTD 2nd of October

[Aidymac]

Independant Girl - Tipperary 2:35 I think this horse has a good chance tomorrow. It is a front-runner that had a very good 2nd last time out and gets to run off the same mark tomorrow. Went off in front last time out and traded at a low of 1.36 in running, but just lost out by a length to Darasal Wane at Listowel. Previous to that it ran a fine race at Galway, 4th to Indian Landing, only about a length behind , them two runs both off a mark of 75 and runs off the same mark tomorrow. A more experienced jockey takes over tomorrow, Danny Grant taking over from DJ Benson and that might make the difference. Either way i think this horse is overpriced and is worth a bet. WIN @ 12/1 Boylesports BOG

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October Aint put down anywhere near the cash that was put down this very time last year but none the less a nice bet has been placed. From his 7 races i have put down cash 6 of them, some people have knocked him and that's fair enough BUT he always seems to run his heart out. He holds the Derby record and last year just when most had wrote him off after his flop in the King George at Ascot he came back out on 3rd Oct and took the Arc. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute must NEVER be underestimated in these kind of VERY valuable races. Jockey Ryan moore is a class act and as most punters will know, he has said ''Quote''- i am back to ride a very good horse in a very important race. Sure he has a harder task than last year BUT at 9/1 with Hills i'll stay 100% loyal and see out this journey i,ve had with this great horse. Longchamp 3:15 - Workforce 0.5 e/w bet @ 9/1 Hills. May the Force be with you Ryan. :hope

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 16:35 Uttoxeter Papradon Win (5,00) Bet365 In this race Papradon stands out whit his amazing form recently at Worchester. The 7 year old have not previously won at this course or distance but i´ll give him the benefit og the doubt. His recent form. UR-7-8-2-1 There are some great horses in this race and House Of Burbon, Gem Mill and Montana Gold, have meet each other several times and proven their strenght over the distance. Papradon gets an extra 5lb after his latest win but whit a great history on Gd/Frm, Gd pl he should be able to overcome that. The jockey Twiston Davies gets his 20´s run in a row, whit Papradon.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 3.15 Longchamp - Arc De Triomphe This isn't my sort of race normally, as I usually prefer a big-field sprint handicap to this Group muck (!), but this year I can't help but get drawn into all of the hype. I think you have to afford So You Think a great deal of respect, even though this probably isn't his optimum trip. An EIGHT time Group 1 winner, he's right out of the top drawer and it will take a good one to pass him when Seamie Heffernan gives him a big boot in the ribs and sends him on for home. At the price though, I don't think stamina doubts have been factored in. Market leader Sarafina has been weak in the betting but is another ruled out at your peril. She would have finished closer (and possibly won) last year had she not been hampered by a weakening rival, and will feel she is owed something from the race perhaps. However, like last year's champ Workforce, she no longer gets that invaluable weight-for-age allowance and, for me, that tips the scales in balance of the classic generation. A case can be made for the low-drawn Hiruno D'Amour while Snow Fairy needs little introduction and is another 'oldie' who has the ability to make her presence felt. However, the domination of three-year-olds in this race simply cannot be igored as the fact fourteen of the last seventeen renewals were won by 3-y-o is not a stat borne out of coincidence, there is logic behind its emergence; these three-year-olds are only a few months short of being classed as four-year-olds themselves and, with the colts receiving 8lb and fillies 11lb, they look to have solid claims. Another important stat to consider is that all of the last six winners were Group 1 winners over 1m4f, they'd tasted top level honours and were chancing nothing with regards to the trip come race day. Questions over the ground also make this year's race a superb renewal in prospect. With dry weather in Paris all weak, trainers were expecting good ground, possibly riding on the quick side of good (even if it was declared as good officially) but over the last 24 hours the concerns seem to have eased, Sir Michael Stoute has lessened his fears over the ground for Workforce and Frankie reported it to be riding good earlier today. If fast ground is avoided, GALIKOVA would have to be high on the shortlist. Winner of the Prix Vermeille ahead of Testosterone and Shareta, she's proven over C&D and looks open to further improvement over the trip. If she can ruffle up the colts, with a 3lb sex allowance too, she's unlikely to be far away. I like Treasure Beach, who looks underestimated on his Derby form on both sides of the Irish Sea and think Meandre will reverse Prix Niel form with Reliable Man (Fabre yard possibly hard virus around that time and he failed to settle off slow pace) but Galikova has the advantage of a lower draw over both. Masked Marvel could turn out to be the main threat from gate 5 as he'll go on the ground and Gosden feels he has the gears to be effective over shorter. Nevertheless, it looked a weak Leger that he won (and thats coming from a backer) and Galikova is preferred at the prices. Galikova 8/1 Ladbrokes, 1 pt win

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 15:15 Longchamp MEANDRE is drawn in stall 10 which on first glance may not be ideal but delving deeper it may be no bad thing especially with there likely to be a fair bit of crowd congestion on the inside. It's not like he's drawn out in the car park and should go really well if he's recovered from a slightly disappointing display in the Prix Niel when behind Reliable Man. Meandre wasn't given a hard time that day after getting tired in the closing stages and it had been widely circulated that the Fabre stable had been suffering from a virus in the days before the race. It wasn't a bad run considering those circumstances and the fact that the gallop was only pretty even at best, wouldn't have been ideal. With a good pace likely (pacemakers include Shareta and it's plausible that a couple of the runners on the inside who stay further such as Masked Marvel will want to be prominent to make the race into more of a test) that will suit Meandre perfectly, as shown when he won the Grand Prix De Paris, showing a devastating turn of foot after given the leaders a fair bit of rope to win nicely. Those at the front did tire but they hardly capitulated. My selection is better on decent ground so the current conditions won't be of hindrance whatsoever, the same can't be said for a few of the market principles whose best form comes with cut. Think he's quite a decent bet to finish in the first three, especially for Andre Fabre whose an absolute master at this race (won it six times) and won't have supplemented if he wasn't hopeful of it's chances. MEANDRE; EW @ 14/1 William Hill (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 3.15 Longchamp - 1pt win Workforce @ 10/1 (Hills) - BOG This price looks too good to miss even in a race so competitive. At 10/1 he has to be worth taking a chance on. A Derby and an Arc winner from last year at a double-figure price in any race has to be worth a go. Workforce has always been a bit of a favourite of mine, having been fancied by me for last year's Epsom Derby. Things didn't really go to plan in the Dante, and he soon proved that wasn't his true running when winning the Derby in quite breathtaking fashion on only his third career start. Some have questioned the performance seen as the pacemaker finished 2nd, but a 7 length winning margin and the fastest Derby time recorded showed what a good animal this horse is. Rewilding was back in 3rd and we all know how good he proved to be before his untimely demise. He proved he was far from infallible though, with a flat performance in the King George. Nothing can be taken away from the supremely impressive Harbinger, but Workforce did not run to his true ability - hanging left which was a concern going into Longchamp last year. It paid to stick with him though as he stayed on strongly through horses to nail the prize over in France by a head - proving he was a top class horse. Sir Michael Stoute sent a warning out before Workforce's return to the track at Sandown this season - meaning the Derby and Arc winner went off as big as even money. However, he stayed on stoutly over a 10f trip too short, and carrying some condition, to score by 1l with the front two clear. So You Think had just too many guns in the Eclipse next time out, but I'm quite confident Workforce is capable of turning that form around now they clash over 1m4f. Workforce galloped on strongly having tried to nick the race, but Aiden O'Brien's challenger found that little bit of speed late on. I find it surprising that So You Think is half the price of Workforce, especially considering he himself only just scraped home from Snow Fairy last time out. Again, Workforce didn't really show his true colours behind Nathaniel in the King George this year, but there were excuses, as well as the fact he had to give plenty of weight to a high-class, mature 3yo. Nathaniel would have been a huge fancy for the Arc this year had he been in the field, and Workforce just met a good one there. The combination of the weight as well as being struck into and hanging badly left, meant he couldn't live with John Gosden's horse. 3-year-olds have dominated the Arc but I'm not sure this year's 'Classic Generation' entrants are as good as in previous years, and it gives a big chance for a rare win for an older horse. I don't see why Workforce can't retain his crown - especially given the two horses at the head of the market are drawn very wide. Workforce is boxed in stall 8 - the same as he was in last year. It is no coincidence that Workforce has a 100% record when racing in contests with 8+ runners, and a 0% record with less than 8. He's run in four of either, and he clearly enjoys a good pace and the chance to come through rivals. He's guaranteed to get that today and it makes his price look massive. The ground may have forced his price out a little, but watering won't make the ground too quick and it's not as if he hasn't performed on fast ground before. Ryan Moore has raced back to fitness to take the ride - a huge positive for the horse. Sarafina will have to get things spot on given her running style, and it may just be that she gets going too late. I've already mentioned that I feel Workforce can have the beating of So You Think over this trip. It's difficult to assess some of the foreign form, but of those coming over from these shores, I know I'd rather be with last year's winner. He's a class act and from 4 races with 8+ runners, he's won a debut by 6l, a Derby, an Arc, and a 10f reappearance when not fully fit. Write him off at your peril.

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 3:15 Longchamp - Workforce - 1pt @ 10/1 (WillHill) 16 runners are set to line up for this brilliant Group 1 contest and the lack of any truly outstanding 3-year-old's lead me to believe that recent trends of Classic generation dominance could be bucked here. No fewer than 16 3-year-old's have landed this race since 1990 and they've won 7 of the last 10 running's, with a further 9 places from a total of 66 runners in that time. 4-year-old's have only managed 2 winners and 6 places from 55 runners in the same time-frame, mainly down to the difficulty of giving away weight to the younger horses. That could all change here though, as I'm just not taken by the Classic generation representatives today and I'm hopeful that one of the older animals is going to score, preferably my selection! The one that I'm interested in is obviously my old favourite - and last years winner - Workforce. Sir Michael Stoute's 4 year old would have to break the trend that has seen no horse land this race in successive years since Alleged won it (at 3 & 4) back in 1978 & 1979, although I'm not sure how many have reappeared the next year and I can't imagine it being very many. Only 2 of the previous years winners - in the past 10 years - have run in the race the following year, with both finishing in 3rd position. I still wouldn't pay too much heed to any statistic but they're interesting at the same time. Workforce comes here on the back of having run in the King George at Ascot on July 23rd, the same race in which he flopped in before lining out to win this race on his next course outing last year. Things went a lot better for Stoute's charge this year but he could only manage to come 2¾ lengths behind the brilliant John Gosden trained Nathaniel - a well-built 3 year old to whom he was conceding 12lbs due to the weight-for-age allowance at that time of year. The bare result doesn't tell the whole story as Stoute's exceptionally impressive 2010 Derby winner threw away his chance by hanging across the course under pressure. It seems as if he was feeling something but I don't think the race was ideal for him anyway, as it was quite farcical in how it was run. That was Workforce's second run in a few weeks and I'd imagine he's on that's best caught relatively fresh, as he showed when becoming the first horse in God knows who long to win this race without having a run within the last 50 days. He comes here on the back of the exact same time off the course and hopefully that'll lead to him showing his best form again. Form with So You Think will have to be turned around, as my selection for today's race faced off with the New Zealand bred Ballydoyle superstar in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown (on penultimate start). However, that was over 10f and Workforce still managed to come a half-length behind over a trip that is a quarter-of-a-mile below his optimum. I expect that he's got the beating of that horse over this trip and their respective prices in the market is all wrong (5/1 vs 10/1). Another positive for Workforce is that he gets to race in a big-field for the first time this year. He's 3 from 3 in races where there's big fields (12, 12 & 19), as this gives him the chance to be buried in towards the rear of the pack with plenty of cover, something he hasn't had a chance of doing this year. With the pace being likely to be strong and 15 other rivals to get in amongst, I imagine that he'll have everything run to suit today at a track that we know he handles. Doubts over the ground have arisen, as he certainly doesn't want it too fast (despite winning the Derby on good-to-firm in record time) but today's conditions shouldn't hinder his chances as it seems likely that it'll be nice racing ground - not too quick, not too slow (although it'll be listed as good-to-soft it seems). A bit of rain wouldn't go astray though. With regards to the draw, Workforce will be coming out of stall 8, the same one he raced out of on route to winning this last year. It seems as if you want to be drawn in the lower half to have any chance and he has fared well in that regard. Obviously, in a race of this nature, the opposition have to be feared. Sarafina and So You Think are currently battling it out for favouritism at around the 5/1 mark. The former was obviously an unlucky loser when being mauled by a weakening horse in this last year but I can't for one second believe that she is fairly priced at 5/1 when you consider how tough it'll be for her to win from a sit in stall 13. Similar comments can apply to the latter, as he's one stall up for her in 14. I also don't think that he would win anyway unless they went very slow, which seems unlikely. 1m 4f in a truly run race may just catch So You Think out and despite his obvious talent, he's up against it here. That's not saying he can't win, I just don't think he will. Snow Fairy isn't without a chance but is she good enough? I wouldn't think so. She could run into a place but at 14/1, I wouldn't be overly keen to back her. Freddie Head's Galikova is the most prominent in the market of the 3-year-old's but I'd much prefer to back a horse with some big-field experience and she's never raced in anything with more than 9 runners in her 7 race career. She's obviously talented and could love this different test, but 8/1 isn't a price that's tempting enough. Similar comments apply to 14/1 shot Meandre, as all bar his first career start have come in small fields. I'd also question how good he is, as his Group 1 win came about by beating Seville into second, something that most horses seem capable of! He has been supplemented by his brilliant trainer and should run a good race, but he's too risky for me. Workforce is the one I'll take a chance on, as I feel he's overpriced at 10/1 and should have everything in place to run his race. The Stoute yard haven't had a good season at all but this would be a lovely way for them to turn around all of the misfortune that they've had. Ryan Moore also comes back to the saddle after injury and there'd be no better way for him to come back than by being victorious in this race for the second time in as many years. Hopefully it'll all come to fruition and I'll play medium win stakes in the hope that this brilliant colt can show his best form to buck all of the trends that are against him. He owes me nothing having backed him in this at 6/1 last year but I'm quietly confident that a repeat performance could be in the offing before he heads off for a well-deserved career at stud.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 3.15 Longchamp Nakayama Festa 33/1 Boylesports I have already backed this horse as well as a couple others but I still think he is well over priced despite the draw. I know he still has to prove his well-being after getting injured a couple of runs back but his return to action in the Prix Foy was pretty encouraging as far as I am concerned. That day he had to make the running which he never does and he wasn't beaten that far in the end, considering he was returning from a lengthy break. The trainer has already said that he wasn't ready for that race as there were a few problems in training but he has him absolutely spot on for this which has always been the target. The trainer jockey combination no what it takes to ready a horse for the Arc having got this horse to finish 2nd last year and also giving El Condor Pasa a similar prep in 1999 to finish a close 2nd to the mighty Montjeu. Obviously the big stumbling block is the draw but this horse likes to be held up so it will all depend on whether or not he gets luck in running. If it's anything like last year then he has no chance as there were plenty of horses that got hampered in the race. The ground will be no problem today for Nakayama Festa which can't be said for plenty of the field. A lot of the French horses are untested on ground this quick so it will be interesting to see how they handle it. My selection handles firm ground so there is every chance we might even see a better horse on this ground than we did last year. I don't really see how this horse is such a big price considering his run in the race last year. He beat Sarafina and probably would have beaten Workforce had he not been hampered, yet he is 33/1. The draw could have been kinder but the 2 market leaders are both draw on the outside as well so there can be no excuses. Of the other horses, I really like Galikova and think it will be a very good day for the trainer.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 3:15 Longchamp: Treasure Beach Each Way 28/1 Totesport (1/4 odds 1234) Treasure Beach looks a bit of an after thought for the powerful Aidan O'Brien stable, however he has only raced five times this year, which includes winning the Irish Derby and being pipped at the post by Pour Moi at Epsom. And as a season opener Treasure Beach went down by a head to Nathaniel. Last time out Treasure Beach won over ten furlongs at Arlington in a Grade One, and that was in the middle of August so he should be recovered from that. A wide draw is not ideal, however, he could be taken to the front and make a run for home as they swing in to the straight proper. Usually hold up horses do well, but they may have all on to catch Treasure Beach.

[smashers]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October Longchamp 1645 BANIMPRE 9/2 skybet No real class act in this field imo, so I'm going to side with this consistant filly to bounce back to form after disappointing lto. I feel last times race in the yorkshire oaks came far too soon for BANIMPRE, and she has been given a month off to recover this time round. If she is anywhere near the form of her short head beating by blue bunting in the Irish oaks she should take all the beating in this event. She has won on good/firm ground so no issues there. BANIMPRE has been a cosy winner over a couple of group 2 events this year, and the form looks good enough to win this, as long as her long season hasn't finally caught up with her. I believe there is still more to come though, so am happy to get the hard earned down! The main danger to my selection could come from Epic love, who was unlucky in a recent group 2 event and may prefer the better ground being a Dansili filly.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October Huntingdong 3.00 Max Bygraves win - 5/1 Bet365 Boyle VC WH Max Bygraves goes very well fresh and his last two runs could be ignored. At Newbury I backed Calusa Caldera and I remember it was a very weird race. Many horses weren't travelling at all and I think the ground was badly watered that day. At Aintree although the race-card shows good, it rained heavily and it went soft. I think he is a different horse on good ground and after a break, could be well handicapped. Should have improved over the winner, still very lightly raced over fences.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October

3:15 Longchamp: Treasure Beach Each Way 28/1 Totesport (1/4 odds 1234) Treasure Beach looks a bit of an after thought for the powerful Aidan O'Brien stable, however he has only raced five times this year, which includes winning the Irish Derby and being pipped at the post by Pour Moi at Epsom. And as a season opener Treasure Beach went down by a head to Nathaniel. Last time out Treasure Beach won over ten furlongs at Arlington in a Grade One, and that was in the middle of August so he should be recovered from that. A wide draw is not ideal, however, he could be taken to the front and make a run for home as they swing in to the straight proper. Usually hold up horses do well, but they may have all on to catch Treasure Beach.

You only get 3 places for the purpose of the competition Stevet!

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October U5.10 Sovereign Spirit 0.5pt E/W 22/1 Stan James I like the look of the horses run when 2nd over c&d 4 runs ago off a higher mark than it races off today. Snake Chamer ws back in 3rd that day and that went and won a couple of days ago. The press are reporting the horse as being out of form in its last few runs but it hasn't been racing over this trip and I think there's every chance that it'll be competitive back over a c&d that it clearly likes.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 3.35 Uttoxeter Credit For Life makes his hurdles debut for a stable in red hot form. Ran well in only other start and should make a decent hurdler. Probably cramped price but should win without much fuss. 1 Pt win 2/1 Bet365

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October KINGS CHORISTER 2.05 Kelso. 0.5 points each way. Consistent enough, and although up in the weights without winning, does appear to be quite well in with most of his rivals. Lucy Alexander a decent enough claimer and so the 7lb can only be of assistance. Race should be run to suit, the trip's fine and handles most grounds. 10/1 Ladbrokes BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 2:30 Longchamp - Goldikova - Back She is, without question, a truly brilliant mare and one of the best milers of all time. She runs today over 7 furlongs but I think the drop in distance will inconvenience her far less than the step up will do for dream ahead, who looks the chief danger but could well be over-stretched by this trip. He is a quality sprinter but this may be a furlong too far. On that basis, I take the wonder mare to win yet another Group 1 1pt win @ 8/11 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October Hartforth 2.40 Kelso. 0.5 points each way. Handles hurdling and shown enough to suggest he can make a couple of 'better looking' flt recruits work hard. Open to improvement too, so with no trip an ground worries and a decent price, would be well worth a bet. 12/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October

Independant Girl - Tipperary 2:35 I think this horse has a good chance tomorrow. It is a front-runner that had a very good 2nd last time out and gets to run off the same mark tomorrow. Went off in front last time out and traded at a low of 1.36 in running, but just lost out by a length to Darasal Wane at Listowel. Previous to that it ran a fine race at Galway, 4th to Indian Landing, only about a length behind , them two runs both off a mark of 75 and runs off the same mark tomorrow. A more experienced jockey takes over tomorrow, Danny Grant taking over from DJ Benson and that might make the difference. Either way i think this horse is overpriced and is worth a bet. WIN @ 12/1 Boylesports BOG

2nd at 8/1, another place which im happy with , just cant seem to get that winner! (although a stewards enquiry just called):D However happy with my new strategy of trying to find value.. Come on Galikova!!! :hope

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October

Huntingdong

This isn't the time nor the place :p

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October The Arc So You Think 1pt win - 11/2 (Lads) Quite surprised to find myself backing So You Think but after going through the race thousands of times, I think he has a great chance. His win in the Eclipse over Workforce was impressive, seeing him surge past last year's Derby and Arc winner over 1m2f, giving the impression that a step-up wouldn't be a problem. He didn't stay 2m in the Melbourne, but he pulled so hard that day. His other recent defeat was at Ascot where he took a keen hold again. Plus, Ascot is a funny track. He went for home some way out too. He beat Snow Fairy lto but the pace wasn't great so I'm not too bothered about the distance. The draw is obviously the bad part today, but the price factors it in for me. I really think the 3yos are rubbish and will be massively disappointed if one manages to win today. If SYT settles, he has a big chance.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 1pt win - Meandre - SP Stepped right up to win the Prix De L'Avre and the Grand Prix du Paris earlier this year. He produced withering finishes on the fast ground over 12f in both those races. Beaten by Reliable Man in the Prix Niel the other week, which is no worry to me for his chances today - a lot of the Fabre horses were suffering with a virus, and although Meandre wasn't he hadn't been able to be trained 100% properly. And, anyway, this has been the target definitely since winning the GPdP, and there's nobody better than Monsieur Fabre at getting them primed and ready for this race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October

This isn't the time nor the place :p

Wins tho :D

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 2nd of October 6.00 Kelso - Groovy Dancer 1pt win @ 4/1 william hill Made winning debut back in may at sedge on gd / frm and although faces soft ground today , the sire and dams sire were both consistent with cut in the ground. Dobbin has sent 8 bumper runners to track in recent years with one success and partnership with murphy hardly ever been used , just 3 times with one success and that came in a bumper. monster gamble on charlton horse but not for me