Draws for profit...Summing up

[Drawsandmore]

Current performance to 07/05/12:...Sadly after flattering to deceive all season, it isn't to be. We end the season in the red. [TABLE=width: 168]

[TR] [TD]Start bank (points)[/TD] [TD=align: right]100.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Number of bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]231[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Winning bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]63[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Losing bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]168[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Strike rate[/TD] [TD=align: right]27.27%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total points staked[/TD] [TD=align: right]924.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Profit/loss (points)[/TD] [TD=align: right]-23.96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Current Bank[/TD] [TD=align: right]76.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yield[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2.59%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] For reasons explained in post 59 of "Another crazy draws for profit thread", I have had to start this thread to continue the "good" work. :rollin Here are all the results to 20th September, all of which were proofed in my original thread...Even I'm not stupid enough to "after event" 47 bets and show a loss! 06/08/11 Charlton 3.50 Betfred L -4.00 06/08/11 Sheffield W 3.71 Pinnacle L -4.00 06/08/11 Wycombe 3.58 Pinnacle W 10.32 06/08/11 Shrewsbury 3.60 Bet365 W 10.40 13/08/11 Barnsley 3.42 Pinnacle L -4.00 13/08/11 Exeter 3.47 Pinnacle L -4.00 13/08/11 Scunthorpe 3.60 Pinnacle W 10.40 13/08/11 Yeovil 3.40 Pinnacle L -4.00 14/08/11 Stoke 3.80 Boylesports W 11.20 16/08/11 Leyton Orient 3.50 Victor Chandler L -4.00 16/08/11 Plymouth 3.40 Skybet L -4.00 16/08/11 Bath City 3.40 Victor Chandler L -4.00 20/08/11 Coventry 3.60 Victor Chandler W 10.40 20/08/11 Walsall 3.52 Pinnacle W 10.08 20/08/11 Torquay 3.42 Pinnacle L -4.00 21/08/11 Norwich 3.41 Pinnacle W 9.64 21/08/11 Middlesbrough 3.53 Pinnacle L -4.00 27/08/11 Leicester 3.50 Pinnacle L -4.00 27/08/11 Yeovil 3.50 Skybet L -4.00 27/08/11 Northampton 3.62 Pinnacle -4.00 27/08/11 Grimsby 3.43 Pinnacle L -4.00 29/08/11 Southport 3.46 Pinnacle L -4.00 03/09/11 Stevenage 3.52 Pinnacle L -4.00 03/09/11 Barnet 3.57 Pinnacle W 10.28 03/09/11 Torquay 3.63 Pinnacle L -4.00 03/09/11 Braintree Town 3.80 Pinnacle L -4.00 03/09/11 Gateshead 4.45 Pinnacle L -4.00 03/09/11 Southport 3.53 Pinnacle L -4.00 10/09/11 Bristol City 3.52 Pinnacle L -4.00 10/09/11 Bury 3.51 Pinnacle L -4.00 10/09/11 Notts County 3.53 Pinnacle L -4.00 10/09/11 Oldham 3.50 Stan James W 10.00 10/09/11 Scunthorpe 3.52 Pinnacle W 10.08 10/09/11 Cheltenham 3.65 Pinnacle L -4.00 10/09/11 Plymouth 3.82 Pinnacle L -4.00 10/09/11 Fleetwood Town 3.54 Pinnacle L -4.00 10/09/11 Mansfield 3.57 Pinnacle L -4.00 13/09/11 Chesterfield 3.51 Pinnacle L -4.00 13/09/11 Macclesfield 3.56 Pinnacle W 10.24 17/09/11 Hull 3.40 Ladbrokes L -4.00 17/09/11 Chesterfield 3.50 Pinnacle L -4.00 17/09/11 Rochdale 3.54 Pinnacle L -4.00 17/09/11 Barnet 3.59 Pinnacle L -4.00 17/09/11 Torquay 3.56 Pinnacle W 10.24 17/09/11 Gateshead 3.65 Pinnacle W 10.60 17/09/11 Kettering Town 3.57 Pinnacle L -4.00 20/09/11 Cambridge 3.78 Pinnacle L -4.00 Apologies for the formatting...I miss my tables already! I only ever bet the draw, the stake is currently fixed at 4 points, and the starting bank was 100 points. All the reasoning, and most of the methodology etc is in the other thread, but if anyone has any questions, I will try to answer them here. In addition to not using any more Excel tables in this thread, I'm going to try to cut down on my use of brackets! Many thanks for looking in.

[mister magoo]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Youre having better luck than me....I also dislike brackets...I think the exclamation mark should be outside the bracket...or inside.... no, maybe outside.....:loon

[Maybe]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Good luck Drawsandmore. I've a mutual respect for anyone who tries to predict draws. It's a particular challenge that even the bookies have admitted is the most difficult thing to do. It's a challenge just to break even ! ..... Reach or exceed a 40 % strike rate and you are in business ! The best of luck ! ... :ok

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

Youre having better luck than me....I also dislike brackets...I think the exclamation mark should be outside the bracket...or inside.... no, maybe outside.....:loon

Hi mister magoo, I think that like me, you've just hit a bit of a sticky patch, your earlier performance was pretty good though...Perhaps we should swap 'til the tide turns? You could try backing the draws in your thread, and I should be laying the draws in this one! Hopefully, you have noticed the distinct lack of brackets in this post AND a few amendments to the first post ;) Good luck and I hope you continue with your "Magic" thread :hope

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II First bet of the weekend: 24/09/11 Scunthorpe to draw...4 points @ 4.00 with Victor Chandler. Five more to follow tomorrow :)

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Next bet: 24/09/11 Northampton to draw...4 points @ 3.60 with Victor Chandler. Four more to follow tomorrow...when I'll hopefully have a better internet connection!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II 24/09/11 Derby to draw...4 points @ 3.40 with Coral. 24/09/11 Cambridge to draw...4 points @ 3.42 with Pinnacle. 24/09/11 Southport to draw...4 points @ 3.52 with Pinnacle. 24/09/11 Tamworth to draw...4 points @ 3.30 with Coral. Which with the 2 bets already posted gives us 6 bets in total for the weekend. :hope

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

24/09/11 Derby to draw...4 points @ 3.40 with Coral. :wall 24/09/11 Scunthorpe to draw...4 points @ 4.00 with Victor Chandler. :eyes 24/09/11 Northampton to draw...4 points @ 3.60 with Victor Chandler. :eyes 24/09/11 Cambridge to draw...4 points @ 3.42 with Pinnacle. :eyes 24/09/11 Southport to draw...4 points @ 3.52 with Pinnacle. :wall 24/09/11 Tamworth to draw...4 points @ 3.30 with Coral. :clap

Well, it could have been worse...but not much! Only one winner, and it was the skinniest price of the lot :eyes Still, onward and upward, (please). I haven't checked the fixtures for next week yet, but it would be nice if there were a few predicted in the higher divisions for a change...And even nicer if some of them could bloody well draw!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Three to get "excited" about on Tuesday! Another on Friday and currently only one on Saturday...Given the current vein of form, it's probably not a bad thing there aren't so many bets this week :$

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Apologies for the late posting...I'm running soooo late! Usual pack drill...all 4 points on the draw, three for tonight Burnley @ 3.55 Pinnacle Forest Green @ 3.40 Coral Stockport @ 3.45 Pinnacle :hope

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

Burnley @ 3.55 Pinnacle 5 - 1 !!:wall Forest Green @ 3.40 Coral :clap Stockport @ 3.45 Pinnacle :eyes

Well, at least the night was profitable. There are just two bets left this week, one on Friday and another on Saturday. I'll post them up in good time, and update the running total once the results are in.

[richardvador]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Hello , i have a personnal software to make Draw score football predictions for European championships. this weekend, i had 18 Draw match predictions for calcio, ligue1, Eng premier, Liga1 and Bundesliga. my results : 5 matchs with correct score 1-1 1 match with correct score 0-0 9 matchs with Draw final result from all the 18 predictions my question : which wheeling system can i use in order to play the winning match in Combo with sure winning accuracy. thanks for helping me i will share my predictions with anyone help me richard :cigar

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

Hello , i have a personnal software to make Draw score football predictions for European championships. this weekend, i had 18 Draw match predictions for calcio, ligue1, Eng premier, Liga1 and Bundesliga. my results : 5 matchs with correct score 1-1 1 match with correct score 0-0 9 matchs with Draw final result from all the 18 predictions my question : which wheeling system can i use in order to play the winning match in Combo with sure winning accuracy. thanks for helping me i will share my predictions with anyone help me richard :cigar

Hi richardvador, I think it is highly unlikely/impossible that you could maintain that sort of strike rate long term. But, if your software really can pick 50% draws on a regular basis (a sample size of 18 is way too small, but I guess you must have figures for previous weeks/years?), then you really don't need any help from anyone on here. Let's be really mean and say you only get average odds of 3.00 for the draw, and let's also assume that your system usually only picks 10 matches per week, (so 5 winners :D) and that you can only bet 40 weeks of the year. Let's also be ULTRA conservative staking a fixed 1% of a 100 point bank: 200 bets, 1 point each @ 3.00 = 200 point outlay 100 winners returns 300 points = 100 points profit So half way through the season, you've doubled your bank!!!! Now double your new 200 point bank, (you're staking 2 points now, 1% of the new bank). In ONE season, you've QUADRUPLED your bank. In five years your bank would be over half a million points...Although I suspect even Pinnacle would have stopped taking your bets long before then! If you have figures going back a few years that are anything like your success last weekend, please let me know...I will happily sign over my final salary pension scheme, (22 years service and counting), to you in return for the details of your system...However, if it was my system, I wouldn't tell a soul the details, but please feel free to start a thread and share the selections :D

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Apologies for the late posting...Again Usual pack drill...4 points on the draw, one tonight, and another to follow tomorrow. 30/09/11 Macclesfield @ 3.50 William Hill :hope

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

30/09/11 Macclesfield @ 3.50 William Hill :eyes

So September ends with a loser...It's been a pretty awful month, so :welcome October, which starts with just one bet 01/10/11 4 points on the draw Braintree @ 3.51 Pinnacle

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II 01/10/11 4 points on the draw Braintree @ 3.51 Pinnacle :eyes...And October starts with a loser :cry Personally I'm still in profit, (but not by much, and only because of the free bets I've gotten when opening various new accounts)...I think I'll give it another month or so, and if there is no sign of improvement I'll knock it on the head. There are no more bets this week, and looking ahead, there is nothing until Saturday at the earliest...At least I won't be losing any more money for a while.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Usual pack drill...all 4 points on the draw, three for tomorrow 08/10/11 Oxford @ 3.60 Skybet Plymouth @ 3.50 Skybet York @ 3.95 Pinnacle :hope

[moggis]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II well hopefully you wiill get a few up this month and carry on. you know the thing I dont understand about draws is that it is widely reported that only a small % of bets are on the draw..so that you would expect there to be a modicum of value on those prices-not most of them but some?

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

Oxford @ 3.60 Skybet...Lost 3 - 0 :wall Plymouth @ 3.50 Skybet...Won 2 - 2 :nana York @ 3.95 Pinnacle...Lost 6 - 2 :wall :hope

1 from 3 equals a profitable day...Given the current performance, I'll take it! It looks like there will be 6 bets next week, and unusually for this season most of them are in the Prem. or Championship...3 out of 6 should be enough to get us back in the black!

[McNamara591]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Hi Drawsandmore I read your post and thought you could do this theory which may help. Firstly if you are backing the Draws then wait for the 1st goal to be scored and your price should go up maybe a couple of dollars. And secondly i have noticed that if both teams score in the 1st half ending in a draw, then that game will more likely have a good chance to also draw at the end. Thought I would try to help you save and make some cash with the way I have been doing it. Good Luck.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Famous last words, but I feel pretty good about this weeks selections...First one of the weekend is played tomorrow night (15th October). Doncaster @ 3.60 Victor Chandler...4 points on the draw :hope I'll post Saturdays bets (there are four) in plenty of time on Saturday morning.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

Famous last words, but I feel pretty good about this weeks selections...First one of the weekend is played tomorrow night (15th October). Doncaster @ 3.60 Victor Chandler...4 points on the draw :hope I'll post Saturdays bets (there are four) in plenty of time on Saturday morning.

Of course, I meant the 14th October!!! :$

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

Doncaster @ 3.60 Victor Chandler...4 points on the draw :hope

So, a loser to start the weekend :eyes But, to use shopping channel speak, there are four more "opportunities" today: Liverpool @ 3.43 Pinnacle Derby @ 3.60 Various West Ham @ 3.84 Pinnacle Newport @ 3.6 Unibet All four points on the draw. Hopefully back tomorrow to list the winners :unsure and post the last bet of the week.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

Liverpool @ 3.43 Pinnacle Won :nana Derby @ 3.60 Various Won :nana West Ham @ 3.84 Pinnacle Lost :wall Newport @ 3.6 Unibet Lost:eyes

That ensures a profitable week...One for today to see if we can return the thread to profit. WBA v Wolves @3.45 Pinnacle...4 points on the draw :hope

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II WBA v Wolves @3.45 Pinnacle...4 points on the draw...Lost :eyes But 2 out of 6 for the week, means it was still a profitable one...Three bets tomorrow, I'll post them up in the morning

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II All four points on the draw with Pinnacle Barnsley @3.49 Ebbsfleet @ 3.57 Newport @ 4.01 Sorry for late posting!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

All four points on the draw with Pinnacle Barnsley @3.49 Ebbsfleet @ 3.57 Newport @ 4.01

And three losers to start the week! :gimme Four bets on Saturday...If three of them come in, I'll be back in profit, (I think)

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Four bets for tomorrow, as usual, all four points on the draw: Reading @ 3.56 with Pinnacle Oldham @ 3.53 with Pinnacle Stevenage @ 4.00 with Victor Chandler Southport @ 3.68 with Pinnacle I'm beginning to lose the faith, but a couple of winners is all it'll take to recover the weeks losses :hope

[Mulkis]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II

I'm beginning to lose the faith, but a couple of winners is all it'll take to recover the weeks losses :hope

Drawsandmore, please dont stop with your system. I'm lurking and closely watching your progress. It is somehow indicative what we could expect from backtested and at first glance well grounded system. Negative result is still a good result for future considerations:ok

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Hi Mulkis, many thanks for your interest and encouragement :) I think what this thread is demonstrating is that there is a Hell of a difference between back testing and live betting with real money! When back testing, I suspect that most people just look at the end of season result. If the system is profitable, (which it usually is when back testing, or you wouldn't be developing the system!), nobody actually gives much thought to the detail. The problem when going live, is that a run of losers, or making a loss in the short term, (hopefully!) plays havoc with your betting confidence...Even though, if you look back through previous seasons you usually find that they too went through spells of wretched form...Long losing runs and losing money! Currently, I'd assess the performance as below expectations, but still within my limits of acceptability...I'm a bit concerned that it is making fewer selections in the higher divisions than previously, (and correspondingly more in the lower divisions, where my success rate is usually lower anyway!). At the moment, it could all be down to variance, and not actually a failing of the system itself, only time will tell! Having said that, I am also well aware that it could be the system has run its course :eyes I am a firm believer that no system lasts forever without some modifications along the way.