christianu Posted January 22, 2005 Author Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Week 3 Selections West ham vs Derby 0.25pts Win odds: 3/1 Draw odds 9/4 Deportivo vs Espanyol 0.5pts Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 2/1 Lazio vs Sampdoria 0.5pts Win odds: 11/5 Draw odds: 2/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Derby won at 3/1 :D Sampdoria winning 2-0 at 11/5 :D Espanyol not started yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 23, 2005 Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System nice picks on derby/sampdoria. well done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Cheers Bruise, hope i havnt spoke to soon and Sampdoria throw away a two goal lead! Hoping Espanyol can make it a full house tonight as i had a quid on all three together at 42/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Samdoria win at 11/5! 2-1 in the end, done a little calculation on the yield for staking plan 3 where i dont bother with the draw, just the win stake which i think is looking the more profitable. It may not be exactly correct but i counted my stakes and profits after sampdorias game and this is the unnoffical figure. Yield= 51% Im not sure exactly how good/bad that is but ill look into it. Strike rate for winners is about 40% but ill clarify exact amounts soon. 40% doesnt sound too much but considering my picks average at around 5/2 a strike rate of around 28% would see me in profit if all stakes remained equal. Anyway come on Espanyol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Espanyol lost :( so after todays games: Staking plan 1 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 58.27pts (0.71pts profit) Staking plan 2 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 57.56pts (0.1pts profit) Staking plan 3 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 60.70pts (1.35pts profit) 2/3 Won at 3/1 and 11/5 1/3 Lost Profitable day today. Up to now looks like the last way of staking, just betting on the win, leavaing the draw alone is the most effective, but 5 more weeks of this paper trial to see how it goes. Im going to put the yield/profit/loss/no.of bets... all together later on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted January 23, 2005 Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Christianu, Great picks, going well for you. I agree that straight win bets is the way to go for this. Betting on the draw is a difficult nut to crack. Good luck for the future! Cheers, i. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Thanks Investor for your support:ok I think that just betting on the straight win is the way to go but just going to see it out just incase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System aye good luck with this fella. if only you put this much work in at college :lol sorry couldn't resist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System :lol We all know nothing is going to come off going to college, this is where the money is going to be made! :lol Im off to college just now in fact, early start for me today i have to be in at bloody 1pm, its a joke! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Bit tired after that early start today. Anyway just to clarify how im selecting my ermm selections. Im not just picking any 2/1+ shot that i think oooo they have a chance, im looking for games with distinct value where the odds do not refelct the chances a team has IMO. For example at the weekend Leeds at 9/4 were massively undervalued against a Stoke side in terrible form who can just not score, Leeds themselves had a good away record although a little inconsistent themselves, i would have had them around 6/4. Same applies with Derby at 3/1 against a troubled West Ham side, Derby have the best away record in the CCC and were against a troubled West Ham side under a lot of pressure, i would of made that around 2/1 or lower. Even Bournemouth who lost for me at the weekend were undervalued at 2/1 which didnt reflect there chances which should of been around 6/4 which was available in most bookies, unfortunately that one didnt pull off, but you can see my point at where im looking for value. Staking range (0-5pts) Week 3 selections (midweek) Brentford vs Barnsley 1.25pts Win odds: 3/1 Draw odds: 5/2 Nantes vs St Etienne 0.5pts Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 2/1 AC Ajaccio vs Toulouse 0.5pts Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 15/8 Blackburn vs Bolton (0-1 Goals) 1.5pts Odds: 9/4 1.5pts used from each staking plans bank Example tonight, Barnsley are 10 games unbeaten and play a Brentford side who are very hit and miss, allbeit on the back off a few victories. Id say Barnsley should be around 2/1 or just above yet are 3/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Blackburn 0-1 Bolton :D Another win on the 0-1 goals and another silly price, 9/4? In Blackburns last 9 games 8 have finished with 0-1 goals, and there last 5 games have finished 1-0 to either side, thanks Betfred! After Monday banks stand at: Staking plan 1 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 63.15pts Staking plan 2 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 62.44pts Staking plan 3 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 65.58pts See how things go Tuesday and Wedensday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Right going to update system info, ill be using staking plan 3 which is proving to be the most effective and its the one most people would use. It also doesnt involve draw bets which would make it a bit more complicated when calculating this information, just stakes on the win which i think will ultimately be what ill be doing after this paper trial. Starting bank: 50 pts Current bank: 65.58 pts Total Staked: 24.75 pts Number of bets: 26 Winning bets: 10 Losing bets: 16 Strike Rate: 38.5% Yield: 63% Profit: 15.58 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Excellent results, looking forward to more of the same! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 25, 2005 Author Share Posted January 25, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Cheers Investor, lets see how i fair tonight with Barnsley, this one could go either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 25, 2005 Share Posted January 25, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Good work mate, keep it up :D DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 25, 2005 Author Share Posted January 25, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Cheers Danny not doing to bad yourself mate. Tonight: Brentford 1-1 Barnsley So mixed really because they didnt lose two stakes show profit, and one a loss which was the most profitable one up to now. Staking plan 1 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 63.45pts Staking plan 2 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 64.32pts Staking plan 3 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 64.33pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 25, 2005 Author Share Posted January 25, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Just one more to add: Man United vs Chelsea (0-1 goals) Odds: 12/5 Stake: 1.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 26, 2005 Author Share Posted January 26, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Not too good Tonight: Man United 1-2 Chelsea.. . lost Ajaccio 1-0 Tolouse.. . lost Nantes 0-0 St Ettiene. . profit in 2 staking plans Update: Staking plan 1 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 62.00pts Staking plan 2 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 63.57pts Staking plan 3 Starting bank: 50pts Current bank: 61.83pts 3 weeks of profits now each time, and made money over the midweek bets, thanks to the Blackburn game and only 1 team was beaten, however staking plan 3 has suffered and now staking plan 2 suddenly looks very good. Still theres another 5 weeks of testing on this system to go. Some juicy ones this weekend though:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 27, 2005 Author Share Posted January 27, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System For some reason i havnt posted this one but i thought i had, but it kicks off in 10 minutes, glad i checked. Calglari vs Sampdoria 0.75pts Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 9/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko1983 Posted January 27, 2005 Share Posted January 27, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Bad Start man - 1-0 Calgiari after 4 mins!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 27, 2005 Author Share Posted January 27, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Not so glad i checked:lol Terrible start, Calglari are good at home but Sampdoria equally good away form home and are on much better form but it is a cup game so possibly a bit risky in the end. Well onto the weekend, i have a shortlist of about 8/9 games, a few of them just little hunches so i reckon that ill knock about 3 or 4 off, no doubting theres some excellent value bets though this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 29, 2005 Author Share Posted January 29, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System After an up and down midweek its onto the weekend and hopefully some very nice selections. Week 4 Selections Brentford vs Hartlepool (1pt) Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 12/5 Derby vs Fulham (0.5pts) Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 12/5 West Ham vs Sheffield United (1.5pts) Win odds: 9/4 Draw odds: 12/5 Leeds vs Brighton (0.5pts) Win odds: 7/2 Draw odds: 12/5 Walsall vs Huddersfield (1pt) Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 9/4 Lincoln vs Mansfield (0.75pts) Win odds: 3/1 Draw odds: 11/5 Morecambe vs Halifax (0.25pts) Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 12/5 Southend vs Darlington (0.25pts) Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 12/5 Everton vs Sunderland (0.1pts) Win odds: 6/1 Draw odds: 11/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 30, 2005 Author Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Update on Banks after the weekend. Staking Plan 1 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 58.16pts (2.72pts loss) :( Staking Plan 2 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 62.27 (0.2pts profit) :) Staking plan 3 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 55.33pts (5.75pts loss) :( Terrible Weekend, 4 draws 5 losses although my first 4 picks were the teams that drew. I wanted to narrow my shortlist down but i kept thinking how annoyed would i be if they won, and that ill have to learn from and just stick to the teams that represent the most value. Regardless staking plan 2, shows profit yet again? That looks very much the part after Staking plan 3 lookedhe most profitable for the first 3 weeks and is now struggling. Would only take a few wins to put that right though. This is why i chose to test three ways of staking to see what would be the best way to go for this stratergy/system. Onto the midweek and hopefully better selections from myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 30, 2005 Author Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Week 4 Midweek selections Charlton vs Liverpool 1pt Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 12/5 Chester vs Cheltenham 1pt Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 12/5 Fiorentina vs Palermo 0.75pts Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 2/1 Livorino vs Reggina 1pt Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 11/5 Messina vs AC Milan 0.25pts Win odds: 4/1 Draw odds: 11/5 Birmingham vs Southampton 0.5pts Win odds: 7/2 Draw odds: 12/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted January 31, 2005 Author Share Posted January 31, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Week 4 Midweek selections Arsenal vs Man Utd 0-1 Goals 11/5 Win Stake: 1.25pts Barnsley vs Bradford 0-1 Goals 11/5 Win Stake: 0.75pts Bolton vs Totenham 0-1 Goals 11/5 Win Stake: 0.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted February 3, 2005 Author Share Posted February 3, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Charlton vs Liverpool 1pt. . . LOST Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 12/5 Chester vs Cheltenham 1pt. . . . .WON Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 12/5 Fiorentina vs Palermo 0.75pts . . . .WON Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 2/1 Livorino vs Reggina 1pt. . . . . .DREW Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 11/5 Messina vs AC Milan 0.25pts. . . .LOST Win odds: 4/1 Draw odds: 11/5 Birmingham vs Southampton 0.5pts. . . . .LOST Win odds: 7/2 Draw odds: 12/5 2/6 Winners at 2/1 & 5/2 1/6 Drew at 2/1 3/6 Lost Staking Plan 1 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 58.09pts (0.07pts loss) :( Staking Plan 2 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 62.14pts (0.14pts loss) :( Staking plan 3 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 56.25pts (2.92pts profit) :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted February 3, 2005 Author Share Posted February 3, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System That was after the games which went fairly well, however the 0-1 Goals didnt pull off in a goal packed night in the premiership. 2.5pts loss for all banks: Staking Plan 1 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 55.59pts Staking Plan 2 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 59.64pts Staking plan 3 Starting Bank: 50pts Current Bank: 53.75pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted February 3, 2005 Author Share Posted February 3, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System Week 5 selections Cheltenham vs Rochdale 2.5pts Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 12/5 Accrington vs Scarborough 1pt Win odds: 5/2 Draw odds: 12/5 Bristol Rovers vs Grimsby 0.5pts Win odds: 2/1 Draw odds: 12/5 Burnley vs Leeds 0.5pts Win odds: 9/4 Draw odds: 12/5 Totenham vs Blackburn 0.25pts Win odds: 4/1 Draw odds: 12/5 Middlesborough vs Portsmouth 0.5pts Win odds: 4/1 Draw odds: 5/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christianu Posted February 6, 2005 Author Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: 2/1+ System West Ham vs Cardiff 1pt Win odds: 4/1 Draw odds: 5/2 Roma vs Bologna 0.25pts Win Odds: 13/2 Draw odds: 5/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.