Bruise Pristene Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 I've decided to start a system only betting on these teams(or matches with them involved anyway), avoiding all derbies between them. Not genius I know, but thought I'd try it. All bets will be placed with betfair, just for ease of use with me I can keep track then, althought I know I might not be getting the best value Starting bank: £31.28 (the odd amount I had in BetFair) week 1: 1) £5 arsenal to beat Fulham @1.27 2) £5.96 chelsea to beat Villa 1.31 3) £5.32 Rangers to beat Motherwell @ 1.19 4) £5 Celtic to beat Hearts @ 1.57 :clap good start profit less comission 1) £1.53 2) £1.47 3) £0.96 4) £2.71 so bets: 4 winning bets: 4 s/r: 100% Current bank: £37.95 current p/l: +£6.67 % profit loss: +21.3% avg profit/winning bet: +£1.67 avg odds: 1.335 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted December 28, 2004 Author Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea round 2: £5 on chelsea to beat portsmouth @ 1.56 :clap chelsea win returns £7.80=£2.80 profit so far bets: 5 winning bets: 5 s/r: 100% Current bank: £40.75 current p/l: +£9.47 % profit/loss(of start bank): +30.3% % profit/loss(of total staked): +36.4% avg profit/winning bet: +£1.89 avg odds: 1.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted December 28, 2004 Author Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea Its a bit early to decide, but wont have time tomorrow. After looking at team news, Newcastle have a striker crisis and have only won 1 in 6. Arsenal are Arsenal and full stregth, three wins on bounce so gone for £5 on Arsenal @1.91 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted December 29, 2004 Author Share Posted December 29, 2004 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea :clap 1-0 to the Arsenal minus comission gives £4.32 profit so, so far I'm bets: 6 winning bets: 6 s/r: 100% Current bank: £45.07 current p/l: +£13.79 % profit/loss(of start bank): +44.1% % profit/loss(of total staked): +44.5% avg profit/winning bet: +£2.30 avg odds: 1.468 so far so good, but with the odds, it only takes a few bets to fcuk my balance up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted December 30, 2004 Share Posted December 30, 2004 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea Yer I like your idea. the only thing i could suggest is adding Man U to this. I mean at the minute they seem to be beating everybody. Also when you put these bets on, are they just singles? or accumulators, because would you not get higher odds on an accumulator? Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted December 31, 2004 Author Share Posted December 31, 2004 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea yes, but the thing with accumulators which I have learned from losing experience, is it take one team to draw and you lose a fortune. Over time they are just not profitable. So all singles, Kept it to four to keep system simple from the start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted December 31, 2004 Author Share Posted December 31, 2004 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea oK for new years day then 1) £5 on Arsenal to beat charlton @1.62 2) £2.50 on chelsea to beat liverpool @2.38 (reduced stake as not too confident) 3) £5 on rangers @1.25 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 1, 2005 Author Share Posted January 1, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea 2 out of 3 today. first loser as well :( Rangers £5 loss :( Chelsea £3.28 profit :D Arsenal £2.94 profit :D so so far looks like this bets: 9 winning bets: 8 s/r: 88.89% Current bank: £46.29 current p/l: +£15.01 % profit/loss(of start bank): +48.0% % profit/loss(of total staked): +34.5% avg profit/winning bet: +£2.50 avg odds: 1.562 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 1, 2005 Author Share Posted January 1, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea on to tomorro then Celtic to beat livingston £5.29 (because of the odd 29p in balance) on celtic @ 1.15:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 1, 2005 Author Share Posted January 1, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea had hundreds of views but only one reply. anyone have an opinion as to whether they think this is gonna work out profitable long term? views would be appreciated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 2, 2005 Author Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea Celtic did the business for me we now stand at Bets: 10 Winning bets: 9 S/R: 90.00% Start bank: £31.28 Current bank: £47.32 Current p/l: +£16.04 Total staked: £48.79 % profit/loss(of start bank): +51.3% % profit/loss(of total staked): +32.9% Avg profit/winning bet: +£2.10 Avg odds: 1.521 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea yes' date=' but the thing with accumulators which I have learned from losing experience, is it take one team to draw and you lose a fortune. Over time they are just not profitable. So all singles, Kept it to four to keep system simple from the start[/quote'] If you have a successful system proven in many bets, you are by definition picking value. If you are picking value, the bookmaker's overround is no more. It becomes the punter's overround, so to speak. The reason why accumulators are not recommended for mug punters is that they increase the bookmaker's profit margin. Applying the same reasoning, if you have an edge over the bookmaker, accumulators should over time increase your profits (although the fluctuation of your bank will be higher). The most important question is: are you really picking value? I don't know. Too bad it takes so many bets to find out. Anyways, you wanted thoughts, these were mine. I hope you will do well, no matter which path you take. Good luck! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 2, 2005 Author Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea If you have a successful system proven in many bets, you are by definition picking value. If you are picking value, the bookmaker's overround is no more. It becomes the punter's overround, so to speak. The reason why accumulators are not recommended for mug punters is that they increase the bookmaker's profit margin. Applying the same reasoning, if you have an edge over the bookmaker, accumulators should over time increase your profits (although the fluctuation of your bank will be higher). The most important question is: are you really picking value? I don't know. Too bad it takes so many bets to find out. Anyways, you wanted thoughts, these were mine. I hope you will do well, no matter which path you take. Good luck! :) thanks for your thoughts. a great reply Maybe I misunderstood what value was I thought it was when odds are overpriced e.g if a team has a 1 in 2 chance of winning and they are above evens then thats value I see what you mean about accumulators if I have the edge, backing these favourites. I might have to go away and do some maths on it. just thinking off top of my head here: for example if i find out one of these teams let me down once in four, then I should never win an accumulator, as one team will let me down every week (assuming the "let downs" are equally spaced out and one a wk ,to make it easier) but if singles are done I would win three bets every week, and make a profit if odds are good enough I'll see how singles go and maybe brave a fourfold occasionally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evtherev Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea the only reason why it may not work is if one of the teams go on an awful run..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 2, 2005 Author Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea are you referring to original system or doing accumulators? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea One thing is your betting on the teams that the bookies know the most about and are most likely to get the prices correct on. I mean everyone loves their banker teams etc, but if it was that easy everyone would be minted. I'm not saying the bookies won't mis price these teams but basically betting on them every week except when they are playing each other, I mean surely if the bookies are getting the prices right that can't be profitable ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 2, 2005 Author Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea just looking at last seasons stats based on that, these are the no of time the teams didnt win in the leage chelsea 14 (out of 38 games) arsenal 12 (out of 38 ganes) celtic 7 (out of 38) Rangers 13 (out of 38) based on those stats chances of teams winning are Chelsea 63% arsenal 68% celtic 82% rangers 66% so based on last seasons results chance of accumulator coming off is roughly 22% thats a very rough estimation of that (chelsea are better this season, teams have changed etc) also based on last seasons results, if I bet £5 on these four teams in every league game I would have bet £760 in total based on my avg odds so far (1.52), returns would have been chelsea £182.40 Arsenal £197.60 Celtic £235.60 Rangers £190 which comes to a total return of £805.60 hence a £45.60 profit so system looks promising, especially when you think Chelsea are likely to win more games this season than last. Although I should've started this from start of season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 2, 2005 Author Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea just worked out, If i did all fourfold everyweek last season (and assuming all matches were priced at avg of 1.52) and instead of 4 £5 bets put £20 on each week I would stake £760 but would return £854.07, hence a £94.07 profit, double that on singles this is only a rough estimation though as it doesn't take into account when the teams didnt win which would be important for the accys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 2, 2005 Author Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea One thing is your betting on the teams that the bookies know the most about and are most likely to get the prices correct on. I mean everyone loves their banker teams etc, but if it was that easy everyone would be minted. I'm not saying the bookies won't mis price these teams but basically betting on them every week except when they are playing each other, I mean surely if the bookies are getting the prices right that can't be profitable ?good point, maybe this system is doomed to failure, as you would expet bookies to know what they're doing but I am doing this on betfair, where the people laying my bets wont all be bookies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea Maybe I misunderstood what value was I thought it was when odds are overpriced e.g if a team has a 1 in 2 chance of winning and they are above evens then thats value Yes, value is exactly that. Let me demonstrate what I wrote about in my previous post on the following example: You bet on four outcomes in an accumulator and the true probability of every single one of them is 0.5 (thus the fair odds would be evens). The correct price for such an accumulator would be 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 16 and in the long run you would make no profit or loss. Example A: The bookmaker prices the four outcomes you want to bet on in an accumulator at 1.9. Statistically, you should win 1 bet in 16. If you use 1 unit stakes, your balance after 16 bets will be: 13.0321 - 16 = -2.9679 (13.0321 = 1.9 * 1.9 * 1.9 * 1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea good point, maybe this system is doomed to failure, as you would expet bookies to know what they're doing but I am doing this on betfair, where the people laying my bets wont all be bookies Ah well if you can get better prices that bookies yeah there could be something in it. But the overround on the games with chelsea favs etc is usually in direction of the outsider is it not ? For some of these games betfair prices can be worse than the bookies, even ignoring comission. I'm not saying it's not possible but it's certainly a hard way to go about trying to make money, betting on teams people know so much about ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 2, 2005 Author Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea excuse me for being thick but what exactly is meant by an overround? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea Someone will explain this better than me. It's the %age of the book on an event whereby if you were to try and wager a certain amount on all outcomes what %age of money would you lose. eg Norwich v Liverpool on betfair the odds are 6.4 3.9 1.68 above it , there is a figure which says 100.8 % The overround here is 0.8%, if you tried to bet on all 3 outcomes to break even you would lose 0.8% with the optimum stakes. Now take the same game but a bookies odds, 5.00 3.5 1.67 You can see here just by looking if you tried to wager on the game using the bookies odds you would lose more than 0.8%, because the bookie overround is bigger. I'd guess that book there is about 8-9% altho i havent actually calculated it. Now if you look at the 2 sets of odds the odds on the favourites liverpool to win, are almost equal, the overround is made up on the price on norwich being signficantly higher, and the price on the draw slighty larger too, ie the outside chances so to say. Does that make sense ? I'm sure someone can explain it better than me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea to calculate the overround just do the sum of 1/h+1/d+1/a where h=odds on home win, d=odds on draw, a=odds on away win Alien was right, the bookies overround on the liverpool game is 8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea I think as a general rule you may win a small amount, but only a small amount. The stats you gave above said you would make £40 roughly. Bearing in mind that most of the games that the 'big' teams lose are to the other big teams (id guess this I havet checked) then you should make a bit of money in the long term, but bear in mind one bad week could lose you 15 pts or more... Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 3, 2005 Author Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea just worked out if you take out the games between these teams and I did singles on all other matches at £5 based on avg odds of 1.52 would have made £75.20 profit the average odds are based my averages on this systems thread so far, so to be taken with a pinch of salt though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 3, 2005 Author Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea ok on to tomorrows games 1) £5 on chelsea to beat middlesboro @1.41 2) £5 on arsenal to beat man c @1.31 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea I'd crack on with the system while it's showing a profit, for piece of mind if nothing else. I see the point about the lack of value on the big teams, but if you assume the bookie is always right, you might as well quit betting. Another point about the acca's is that if you're winning 1 in 16 on average you may get long losing streaks that take forever to even out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 4, 2005 Author Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea Another point about the acca's is that if you're winning 1 in 16 on average you may get long losing streaks that take forever to even out good point, I always go on a sulk if I have a long loosing spree and can never stick with it to even out. I start to see I'm losing and run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 4, 2005 Author Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: celtic, rangers, arsenal, chelsea chelsea return profit of £1.95 Arsenal £5 loss so, so far I'm bets: 12 winning bets: 10 s/r: 83.33% Current bank: £44.27 current p/l: +£12.99 % profit/loss(of start bank): +41.5% % profit/loss(of total staked): +22.1% avg profit/winning bet: +£1.92 avg odds: 1.494 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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