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Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree


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2:00 Aintree - A Media Luz 1pt EW @ 8/1 Hills Disappointed at the festival but didnt settle at all. She gets filly and 4yo allowance here, getting weight from everything in the race. Couldnt have been any more convincing when winning 2 starts ago with the 2nd and 3rd since running well again. The 2nd to Grandouet is looking to be very decent form as he was going very well before being rugby tackled to the ground by Palawi and looked every bit the winner of the juvenile. Open to much more improvement providing she settles and will be suited by the track and by the ground. 230 Aintree - Wayward Prince 2pts WIN @ 11/4 Bet365 3rd in the RSA behind Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream but was possibly the most eyecatching of the trio. Has gone from strength to strength over fences with 4 wins and a 3rd, on grounds varying from GS and Good, so ground will certainly not be an issue and with multiple wins over 3m, he won't have any problem staying. Rated 2lbs lower than Quito de La Rouge but I believe the selection will be much better suited by the ground. Won the sefton hurdle round here last season, so we also know he handles the track. Providing he jumps well, I don't see anything beating him here and having placed in every career run over hurdles and fences, there isn't an issue with him getting round thus far. 450 Aintree - Cloudy Spirit 0.5pts EW @ 14/1 Hills A mare who has all of a sudden found some very decent form and looks like she is going places. Finished 4th 3 starts ago at Ludlow in a decent race before winning next time out a lot more cosily than the winning margin suggested. She didnt fool anyone though, as the handicapper put her up 9lbs for only a 4l win, and she subsequently went out and won well enough again. Only a 2l win, but a further 6lb rise suggests the handicapper felt she had more in hand. Has more on her plate in this company, but she couldn't be in better form and the stable have been in the mix recently with 1 win and 5 places from their last 9 runs. Will handle the ground just fine and I expect her to go very well at what looks a decent price.

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Jump Racing Fri 8th April (incl Aintree) FRIDAY AINTREE 2.30 John Smiths Mildmay novices chase 11/14 winners being aged 7 or under. 5yo's have a good record with 3 winners & 2 runners up from last 10 runners. SP should be a guide here with 21 of last 22 starting at 10/1 or less. The last 13 winners have all raced over fences at least 4 times in the season. so we have to look at horses that have raced 4 times this season priced 10/1 or less Master of the Hall, Quito De La Roque, Robinson Collonges, The Giant Bolster, Wayward Prince I always thought Master of the Hall would make an aintree horse and will be on this one, the other is c/d winner Wayward Prince who won a hurdle here at last years meeting. Final selections Master of the Hall 5/1 Wayward Prince `11/4 3.40 Topham Chase 9/11 - 8yo-10yo (other 2 were 5 & 7) 9/11 - Under 11st 8/13 - didnt run at Cheltenham 2/13 - Favs 10/11 - ran LTO Mar/Apr 0/11 - 6yo or 11yo 7/8 - 10st 6lb or less 0/11 - Topweights 11/11 - OR 123-141 2/11 - irish trained (from 58 nrunners) 6/7 - had ran over the national fences before (3 finished in 1st 4) Using the stat LTO in the last month & OR rated 123-141 removes SiegeMaster, Mon Parrain, Scotsirish, Free World, Alfa Beat, Consigliere, Ballyholland, Forzy Origny, Gonebeyondrecall, Frankie Figg, Passato, Buffalo bob, Sagalyrique, Polyfast, Nevada royale, Chasing cars. Lets stick with recent years and weight 10st 6lb or less leaving a shortlist of: Fine Parchment - 2nd over 3m 1f Nov 2010 Gansey - No course form Postmaster - No course form Shakalakaboomboom - No course form Stormin exit - Fell Nov 2010 3m 1f - NAtional course Always Waining - 5 course runs/ 2 wins (4 runs over NAtional Fences) won this last year. Pickamus - Pulled up in a Hurdle in 2008 Isnt that lucky - 3rd in this last year off 130 Dev discounted on age grounds Calusa Cadera - no course form Bible Lord - fallen twice over National fences in 3 attempts I will stick with those having course form Final selections Fine Parchment 16/1 Always Waining 16/1 Isnt that lucky 20/1

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Re: Jump Racing Fri 8th April (incl Aintree) 3:40 Aintree: Ballyholland 1pt win 20/1 Sportingbet Ballyholland looked at home over these fences in the Grand National before pulling up after running well for a long way last year. The former Galway Plate winner has has been restricted to just one run over hurdles this season, however if over his injury he could go well. Andrew McNamara has a fine (profitable) record when riding for the stable in Ireland.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree 2.00 Aintree - 1pt e/w Desert Cry @ 10/1 (Skybet) This Donald McCain trained 5-year-old has a bit to find on the book (rated 135), but has a progressive profile and had he won at Kelso last time out, he probably would be much closer to the main contenders on ratings. On the flat in France, Desert Cry was an 8-10f horse, consistent, if not top class. Did run 12 1/2l behind Mastery in an Italian Group 2, though. His first run on British soil came at Leicester after a break, and on its hurdling debut, he ran a promising race - keen on soft ground, and weakened to be beaten 15l late on. Was a competitive littler novice also, though, won by Credit Swap, with Alarazi finishing in 2nd. Despite taking a keen hold on better ground at Ayr on his 2nd start, he stepped up to run a very nice race behind a horse called Darna. This horse was a relatively cheap purchase for William Amos, and showed ability in bumpers before winning both his hurdle starts to date. Since, the horse was bought for £120,000 by Kim Bailey. Clearly a horse with plenty of potential. So the run by Desert Cry may well turn out to be a very good one. Desert Cry went on to win on the bridle by 13l at Sedgefield on heavy ground, crushing Maggio who has run some very respectable races over hurdles - including a 2nd next time out. Donald McCain sent Desert Cry to Kelso for his handicap debut, and he travelled up strongly looking the likely winner at the last, but was done by Bold Sir Brian's finishing power up the punishing run in, to go down by 3 3/4l. This was over 2m2f and an easier 2 miles on better ground should be right up the street of Desert Cry. The form of that Kelso run looks extremely solid. The winner looks a nice prospect, the 3rd - Wyse Hill Teabags won by 10l next time out and ran a cracker to be 3rd (beaten just over 1l) by Russian War yesterday. Moon Indigo, who finished a well-held 4th at Kelso, scrambled home at that course next time out, and the horse in 5th won by 7l next time out, also. Desert Cry has improved with every run, and it's likely that 2 miles around Aintree will really play to the horse's strengths. It's a competitive race but I'd be surprised if this one didn't run a blinder. Been consistent throughout its career, is progressive, and looks capable of surpassing his current mark. McCain has gone a surprising amount of runners without a winner, though there are signs of improvement with Reindeer Dippin, and Sports Line running sound races yesterday.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree 4.50 Aintree - 0.75pts e/w Ballyholland @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Absolute minefield again, and I couldn't help but be impressed by Mon Parrain's success at Sandown, jumping beautifully. But in races such as this, I always think it's wise to go for one at a price. My selection is Ballyholland in this race. This 10yo is experienced over fences having raced in 6 PTPs, and 15 chases, with only 2 runs over hurdles. Clearly versatile, based on its 2 mile hurdle success over the now useful chaser Mr Cracker in Naas last January. Not the most typical of warm-ups for the Aintree feature when that run was followed by a 2 mile chase run, beaten 10l by Tranquil Sea. This horse clearly has a touch of class, but simply didn't get home in last year's Grand National. However, there was a lot to like about its run over the Aintree fences. Went well, running prominently for a long way, jumping like a stag on the whole. Really picks up at his fences which suits the course perfectly. He is versatile in terms of ground - won 3 races (including PTPs) on quick ground, as well as 2 on softer ground, and 1 on Good/yielding. Returned to the racecourse with a prep hurdle run at Naas on the 9th March, and ran a pleasing race to finish 11l off the winner (a progressive horse), after a long absence. Should have put him right for this race. The trip today looks perfect for the horse, whose chase wins under rules have all come between 2m4f and 2m6f. Given the way he jumped and travelled for a long way in the National last year, this race looks bang on for the horse, and off a 4lb lower mark, if retaining as much ability as a 10yo, should give us a good run for our money at a nice price. Andrew McNamara has experience of the National fences with 6 runs under his belt. No great shows, but his runners have had odds of: 100/1, 100/1, 66/1, 33/1, 33/1, 25/1 So it's hardly to be unexpected.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

Sport Horse Racing
Event Aintree 14:00
Selection First In The Queue (To Be Placed)
Strength 5/10
Date 08/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 4.50
Reasoning Won one of two starts over hurdles. Won LTO (33 days ago) at Huntingdon. Debut over hurdles did not end well but that was not his fault. He was brought down when staying on the last hurdle. I think he would have been tried at Cheltenham if that run had gone better. AP McCoy is booked and this gives the runners a great chance to give the rest a hard time winning this race. Nicky Henderson is the trainer. McCoy for the trainer over hurdles this season have a record of 43% or 28 wins from 65 runs.
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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

Sport Horse Racing
Event Aintree 17:25
Selection Glorious Feeling
Strength 5/10
Date 08/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 7.00
Reasoning Won well on debut LTO at Huntingdon by 9 lengths (17f, GS). This is trained by Nicky Henderson and he had jockey David Bass take the ride. He upgrades in jockey to AP McCoy. The trainer and jockey combo in bumpers this season have a strike rate of 47% or 9 wins from 19. The owner is John P McManus and that is good to know because the trainer and jockey works hard for him. The selection is by Old Vic and a mare by Supreme Leader. He is the first foal of a bumper /2m3f-2m6f hurdle/chase winner (stayed 3m) and was a £27,000 foal.
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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

Sport Horse Racing
Event Aintree 15:40
Selection Forzy Origny (SkyBet 5 Places) (Each-way)
Strength 1/10
Date 08/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price Skybet @ 34.00
Reasoning Not raced since May of last year but trainer Nicky Henderson can get them to win from a long absence. His last three runs finished for 3rd, 1st, and 2nd. LTO was 6L behind Auroras Encore in a Listed event, his toughest Class in the UK. The first run was over hurdles with the last two in chase events. This is owned by Sir Robert Ogden. He's having a great year with Henderson and I think this is ready to go. Their record this year have a strike rate of 50% or 7 wins from 14 runs.
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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

Sport Horse Racing
Event Aintree 16:15
Selection Mossley
Strength 10/10
Date 08/04/2011
Bookmaker/Price Betfred @ 5.00
Reasoning Won 3 of 5 career starts. Finished 2nd at the Festival LTO to stablemate Bobs Worth by 2 1/4L in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle. This is the only entry today from owner Michael Buckley. Barry Gerahgty is booked and he's ridden 11 wins from 27 hurdle runs the last 5 seaosns, 41% strike rate. His last win was three runs ago in a Grade 2 event at Cheltenham in December. That was followed by his worst UK run when 5th at Warwick but Heavy going that day is to blame for his defeat. LTO was after that effort and it was his career best. Should have to come.
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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Aintree 2.30 Radium 0.75pt EW - 14/1 Lads SJ Take the place at Betfair to be insured for 3 places. Very interesting line through the Irish form and Western Charmer. Quito De La Roque beat him by 10L off level weights, when they met. The Jewson 7th Mr Cracker beat him by 4L conceding 5lbs. If you put a line through this, then my selection, who readily outclassed Mr Cracker in the Jewson, shouldn't be 3 times the price of the Colm Murphy horse. Considering how impressive Wishfull Thinking was yesterday and Mr Cracker winning in Ireland, I think the Jewson form might actually turn out to be quite strong. I rate NoblePrince and Loosen My Load as serious horses. At the same time I'm not so sure the RSA was won by a good horse. They all bunched up at the finish and I think the strength of the race is questionable. Especially with the two Mullins stablemates looking like winners and departing on the final circuit. There's also interesting form line through Cape Tribulation. Radium beat him at Market Rasen by a head. He made a mistake at the last though, could've beaten him a lot easier. Traveled all over him in the final 3f. Wayward Prince also has the beating of Cape Tribulation. He was more convinving beating him by 2L giving away 3lbs, but like I said Radium made a mistake and was worth a lot more than the margin suggests. Traveled very well at the festival, but just couldn't go with the front three when they quickened. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but at the prices on offer and Barry Geraghty on Master Of The Hall, I think Radium is the value bet in the race. Shouldn't be 3 or 4 times the price of Wayward Prince and Quito De La Roque. Trip and flat track should suit as well.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Aintree 3.40 Mon Parrain 3pt win - 5/1 (already advised) Always Waining 1pt EW - 16/1 (already advised) Always Waining was 4th in this race in 2009 off 140. Gave me a great run for the money at 40/1. Won it last year off 128 and I still don't know how I didn't back him. Races off 133 this time around and I expect another bold bid. Trainer usually has a quiet winter and starts banging the winners when the weather improves. The selection loves spring ground and these fences really wake him up. Ran a good prep race lto finishing 4th over hurdles. Hard to win a Topham twice in a row, but he bolted up last year and runs off only 5lbs higher. I think this 16/1 on offer is way too big. Mon Parrain could end up a very well backed fav today. I think Nicholls has a very well handicapped horse and will try to win a Topham and at Sandown before he aims him at the Gold Cup next year. I was impressed with the way he jumped at Sandown and reports from France are that he's always been natural. Has also been schooled over national fences and apparently jumped them with ease. Trainer won the race with 5yo Gwanako few years ago. 5pts overall staked on the race and probably no savers. Frankie Frigg won over C&D in November, but he needs soft ground and Always Waining didn't run to form that day. On spring ground I think the Bowen horse is a different animal and will reverse form. Scotsirish looks a big price, but he has 12L to find on only 6lbs better terms.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Aintree 4.50 Carpincho 0.75pt EW - 25/1 Usually won't back this type of horse. Has been given a harsh handicap mark winning by 50L at Sedgefield and winning easily at Folkestone. Both runs beating absolutely nothing, but he is a decent horse and with so many in the race potentially over the top, he could run well at a price. Ran in a pretty hot race lto behind the Albert Bartlett 3rd Court In Motion and the impressive Back In Focus. I also really like his bumper form winning 2 and then finishing 3rd in a Grade 2 behind Al Ferof only beaten 6L. Won't be surprised if he improves for fast pace and handicap company. With potentially many of these with a hard season running below form, I think he will be involved.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Fontwell 5.05 Molanna View 1pt EW - 6/1 Ok form over hurdles and needs better ground. Going well lto when falling and was well supported too. By Old Vic and should make a fine chaser. This race is not strong at all and with talented claimer taking off 7bs, I think my selection could run well with a clear round. Emma Lavelle is in decent form and I'll give her yardstick a chance to redeem himself, because he jumped fine before the departure lto. Should be competitive off this mark with the jockey allowance and on what he has achieved over hurdles.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

Sorry to sound thick im a newcomer to betting but what are the 1pt' date=' 0.75pt all about?[/quote'] Stakes are given in pts, mate. You decide how much to have on. If my pt is £10, then the corresponding stake is £10 E/W or £7.5 win etc. This is just to indicate the strength of my tip. The bigger the stake, the more I fancy it.
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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Aintree 5.25 Ceol Rua 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Improving all the time and won with a bit in hand lto. Gave the 2nd 7lbs and beat her convinsingly. Whatwillwecallher won her next 2 races by 15L and 18L, so form holds up well. The Willie Mullins mare will love the ground today. Not easy to weigh up form in a bumper, but this race has been the traget for some time and she comes here fresh and ready to run a big race.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Aintree 3.40 Scotsirish 1pt EW - 20/1 (5 places) With the risk of overstaking in the race, I just can't leave this fella out. Will carry lesser weight than last year and the race has been his target all season. Brilliant jumper and with proven course form he should be bang there all the way. Would probably be able to lay my stake at a short price few fences before the finish, because he will travel and jump.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree melling chase today: well this race seems fairly straight forward on trends : 9/10 finished in the first 3 lto only 3 horses qualify !!! tranquil sea albertas run kalahari king 9/10 had run within 30 days so scrub kalahari king albertas run or kalahari king left 8/10 the winner was first 3 in betting so for me the trends are overwhelming in favour of one of these 2 winning today so at 7/2 and 9/2 2pts on each can squeeze 5pts profit out at least potentially and thats my bet

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree 4.50 Aintree: Mobaasher 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 Bet365 BOG This horse could prove quite well handicapped on best form. Won a handicap from 142 at Warwick in January which looks like a decent piece of form and then ran well next time up in quite a strong looking Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January finishing 4th behind Grand Crus. 2nd horse home that day Knockara Beau went on to win a handicap next time out from 1lb higher than this mark before running with great credit from 9lbs higher when finishing 4th in the Pertemps at the festival. Taking that form literally, this horse could still prove on a decent mark on 147 and could run a big race at a price with the stable form currently a little better than it has been over last couple of months.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree topham chase 9/10 ran within 40 days: first 4 lto or ran in kim muir 10/10 mon parrain not enough runs alfa beat not enough runs consigliere pass ballyholland not enough runs fine parchment pass postmaster pass stormin exit pass always waining pass isnt that lucky pass dev not enough runs calusa calsera not enough runs i compared them to other topham winners and all had had 4+ runs since the previous summer so that left: consigliere scrubbed--- fine parchment postmaster stormin exit always waining isnt that lucky consigliere looks too high in weights so scrub off 6 of last 7 winners carried 10 st 6 or less .....so as all 5 horses remaining horses carry this then at present prices im going to back all 5 : fine parhment 17/1 stormin exit 20/1 postmaster 159/1 always waining 16/1 isnt that lucky 22/1 5x 1 pt wins for minimum 12pts profit

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Aintree - 4.15 Mossley is my bet of the day , improving , gave my cheltenham banker Bobs worth a good race last time out , travels strong , stays and hurdles well , top man on board , beat a few of these last time out convincingly enough in the AB , if he runs upto that level can see him taking some beating...

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree 305 Aintree - Somersby to beat Master Minded 4pts @ 5/6 Hills I can't be having Master Minded in this match up at all. He has never really been the same horse that destroyed VPU at Cheltenham since that day and has never really shown that he is comfortable staying 2m4f, especially not on ground that is perhaps a little too dry for him. Somersby on the other hand has shown significant improvement for a step up and trip and was closing with every stride on MM earlier on in the season at Ascot when MM seemed to be stopping just over his 2m threshold. Somersby had Master Minded comfortabely behind in the champion chase which was perhaps an unsuitable trip for the selection as he had been mapped out for the Ryanair. Somersby to beat Master Minded for me here. 525 Aintree - Ceol Rua 1pt EW @ 11/1 Corals A mare who is very much on an upward curve, with each run a significant improvement on the last. She won well on much worse ground but all the indications are that she will improve again for drying out ground and we should see her at her best. The 2nd in that win has since won well twice and finished behind the very smart Mullins horse Samain, which is no disgrace. Mullins has to be feared when sending horses over for the bumper here and I'm taking this game mare to run a big race here and it wouldnt shock me to see her go off single figures.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree 15:40 Aintree - Scotsirish TBP @ 7/2 Paddy Power Shown nice form at this track in the past with a 2nd in this race last year, is off a 1lb lower mark today so holds chances on that form. Has not gone close to winning lately but he has been running in tough races with credit and with 5 TBP I think he has every chance of making the frame.

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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

4.50 Aintree - 0.75pts e/w Ballyholland @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Absolute minefield again, and I couldn't help but be impressed by Mon Parrain's success at Sandown, jumping beautifully. But in races such as this, I always think it's wise to go for one at a price. My selection is Ballyholland in this race. This 10yo is experienced over fences having raced in 6 PTPs, and 15 chases, with only 2 runs over hurdles. Clearly versatile, based on its 2 mile hurdle success over the now useful chaser Mr Cracker in Naas last January. Not the most typical of warm-ups for the Aintree feature when that run was followed by a 2 mile chase run, beaten 10l by Tranquil Sea. This horse clearly has a touch of class, but simply didn't get home in last year's Grand National. However, there was a lot to like about its run over the Aintree fences. Went well, running prominently for a long way, jumping like a stag on the whole. Really picks up at his fences which suits the course perfectly. He is versatile in terms of ground - won 3 races (including PTPs) on quick ground, as well as 2 on softer ground, and 1 on Good/yielding. Returned to the racecourse with a prep hurdle run at Naas on the 9th March, and ran a pleasing race to finish 11l off the winner (a progressive horse), after a long absence. Should have put him right for this race. The trip today looks perfect for the horse, whose chase wins under rules have all come between 2m4f and 2m6f. Given the way he jumped and travelled for a long way in the National last year, this race looks bang on for the horse, and off a 4lb lower mark, if retaining as much ability as a 10yo, should give us a good run for our money at a nice price. Andrew McNamara has experience of the National fences with 6 runs under his belt. No great shows, but his runners have had odds of: 100/1, 100/1, 66/1, 33/1, 33/1, 25/1 So it's hardly to be unexpected.
3.40, obviously :lol
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Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree 2.30 Aintree I've taken 2 in this race at a combined price of 6/5 Quito de la Roque Trainers form can not be judge as only had 2 runners in the last week, Staying on well in 3m races (despite idling latest) to suggest he'll get stay the extra furlong, possibly prefer softer ground but breeding indicates he shouldn't be troubled by the going he faces today, running well and recent form bodes well as he beat a horse who was 2nd to Boston's Angel who went on to win at the festival. One of the highest rated in the race and should go close. Wayward Prince Trainer in good form, course/ distance no problems. Enjoys good or good-soft ground, ran well at Cheltenham last time out when beaten by Boston's Angel, previously won a Grade 2 and a good chance on official ratings 3.05 Aintree I've taken 3 in this race at a combined price of about 6/5 Albertas Run Trainers form is pretty average - as is most others in the race, proven at course and distance, suited by the ground, performed well at this festival in the past, proven class, up there with the highest rated in this race and coming off the back of a fantastic win at Cheltenham, won the race last year after again winning a the festival. Kalahari King Again the trainer form is nothing special, another suited by the course, distance and going, proven class, proven to perform in the spring time, coming off the back of a good performance when 2nd behind Albertras Run at the festival and should go close again. Tartak Trainer arguably in better form than any other in the race, shoulf be suited by the course, distance and going won't be a problem. Loves running in the spring time and won a couple of Grade 2's in the past and still has a bit to find on ratings, given the form of the trainer tho I give him an outside chance so he's included in my staking plan.

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