mileni4uk Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Puzzling run indeed. Be interesting what Nicholls says in his column. Traveled like a horse, who had tons in hand. One thing is a cert tho. Will have a breathing op sooner rather than later :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Sir Harry Ormesher in the 4.50. Trip and ground in his favour, won at Aintree, and can go well fresh. Alan King is coming into form and had a double at Fontwell today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree FRIDAY AINTREE 3.40 Topham Chase 9/11 - 8yo-10yo (other 2 were 5 & 7) 9/11 - Under 11st 8/13 - didnt run at Cheltenham 2/13 - Favs 10/11 - ran LTO Mar/Apr 0/11 - 6yo or 11yo 7/8 - 10st 6lb or less 0/11 - Topweights 11/11 - OR 123-141 2/11 - irish trained (from 58 nrunners) 6/7 - had ran over the national fences before (3 finished in 1st 4) Using the stat LTO in the last month & OR rated 123-141 removes SiegeMaster, Mon Parrain, Scotsirish, Free World, Alfa Beat, Consigliere, Ballyholland, Forzy Origny, Gonebeyondrecall, Frankie Figg, Passato, Buffalo bob, Sagalyrique, Polyfast, Nevada royale, Chasing cars. Lets stick with recent years and weight 10st 6lb or less leaving a shortlist of: Fine Parchment - 2nd over 3m 1f Nov 2010 Gansey - No course form Postmaster - No course form Shakalakaboomboom - No course form Stormin exit - Fell Nov 2010 3m 1f - NAtional course Always Waining - 5 course runs/ 2 wins (4 runs over NAtional Fences) won this last year. Pickamus - Pulled up in a Hurdle in 2008 Isnt that lucky - 3rd in this last year off 130 Dev discounted on age grounds Calusa Cadera - no course form Bible Lord - fallen twice over National fences in 3 attempts I will stick with those having course form Final selections Fine Parchment 16/1 Always Waining 16/1 Isnt that lucky 20/1 Aintree 3.40 Mon Parrain 3pt win - 5/1 (already advised) Always Waining 1pt EW - 16/1 (already advised) Always Waining was 4th in this race in 2009 off 140. Gave me a great run for the money at 40/1. Won it last year off 128 and I still don't know how I didn't back him. Races off 133 this time around and I expect another bold bid. Trainer usually has a quiet winter and starts banging the winners when the weather improves. The selection loves spring ground and these fences really wake him up. Ran a good prep race lto finishing 4th over hurdles. Hard to win a Topham twice in a row, but he bolted up last year and runs off only 5lbs higher. I think this 16/1 on offer is way too big. Mon Parrain could end up a very well backed fav today. I think Nicholls has a very well handicapped horse and will try to win a Topham and at Sandown before he aims him at the Gold Cup next year. I was impressed with the way he jumped at Sandown and reports from France are that he's always been natural. Has also been schooled over national fences and apparently jumped them with ease. Trainer won the race with 5yo Gwanako few years ago. 5pts overall staked on the race and probably no savers. Frankie Frigg won over C&D in November, but he needs soft ground and Always Waining didn't run to form that day. On spring ground I think the Bowen horse is a different animal and will reverse form. Scotsirish looks a big price, but he has 12L to find on only 6lbs better terms. topham chase 9/10 ran within 40 days: first 4 lto or ran in kim muir 10/10 mon parrain not enough runs alfa beat not enough runs consigliere pass ballyholland not enough runs fine parchment pass postmaster pass stormin exit pass always waining pass isnt that lucky pass dev not enough runs calusa calsera not enough runs i compared them to other topham winners and all had had 4+ runs since the previous summer so that left: consigliere scrubbed--- fine parchment postmaster stormin exit always waining isnt that lucky consigliere looks too high in weights so scrub off 6 of last 7 winners carried 10 st 6 or less .....so as all 5 horses remaining horses carry this then at present prices im going to back all 5 : fine parhment 17/1 stormin exit 20/1 postmaster 159/1 always waining 16/1 isnt that lucky 22/1 5x 1 pt wins for minimum 12pts profit always waining does the biz for the 2nd year running:clap, well done to those on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: Grand National Thread Its some card at Aintree tomorrow isn't it? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree I have a conspiracy theory on Mon Parrain. What if PN had him unfit, so he can have a spin over the fences and blow up. Mark preserved for next year's Grand National and vital experience gained :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree Nice going with Always Waining guys :clap Good winner there too Jamie with Quito De La Roque :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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