aliensyndm Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 OK someone whom I know, who knows someone bla de la, seems awfully confident of the chances of strong resolve. They reckon it should be in the top 3, if not win, if the ground is soft. Could be utter bollox, but they backed it with their own cash as I saw.......hence I'll try a little on each way myself innit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trickrick Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national Ironically I know a guy who's brother is a friend of a friend of a trainer of a trainer (ahem..) who is extremely bullish and confidence about the chances of L'aventure... so much so that I put quite a few quid on it at 8/1 with Laddies earlier on this week.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stk1uk Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national Its L,aventure for me,ran very well last time over 3 mile 2f at chepstow running on well as if extra distance will suit.will also love the soft ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manckevin Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national Going for the Grand Slam this time round (English/Irish National Double last year) rolling any winnings forward to the next race, and today going with Silver Birch, L'Aventure and Chives (win) and Jurancon II and Lord Jack (ew) ;) Wish me luck!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national I like the look of Silver Birch in this as well. Good jumper, goes on the ground & should stay the trip ok, Ruby Walsh on top is a big plus. Lord Jack is a fair price off a light weight & I've had a bit on this as well with a small reversed forcast on the pair. Good luck in your attempt to land the grand slam. Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national Bearing in mind recent stats and especially the current awful state of the going, i cant see anything carrying 11 stone+ winning which would rule out Chives, Bindaree, Jurancon II Shotgun Willy and Take the Stand. The last 10 winners have carried: 10-09, 10-04, 10-00, 10-04, 10-00, 10-00, 10-13, 10-00, 10-09, 11-12. Only one horse since 1976, has won the Welsh National when aged in double figures. Every other winner in that time period has been aged seven, eight or nine. This leaves us with a shortlist of Akarus, Silver Birch, Strong Resolve, and Lord Jack. Mud lover and favourite Akarus has some appeal but im put off my firstly by his long absece from the track and secondly his recent form figures of FPF. Can go close though after looking like winning the race before falling last year. Im not convinced by Strong Resolves stamina qualities on this ground though. This will be a real slog today and he has not run further than 3m 1f. Its worth noting that the trainer thinks stamina is no problem though and the horse has been aimed at this race. We'll see. Silver Birch impresed LTO, winning the Becher Chase over 3m3f on soft ground, finishing the race strongly and beating off challenges from 4 or 5 rivals close to home. That performance suggests that his stamina isnt in doubt and should come into play here today. He is 2 wins from 3 appearances at Chepstow also. At a bigger price, Lord Jack can run a big race also. He's another mud lover who ran a decent race over 4m1f at Newcastle to suggest that todays trip won't be a problem. He has a light enough weight to make him a threat today. SILVER BIRCH @ 5/1 (widely available) LORD JACK @ 14/1 (widely available) Lets do the reverse forecast for a laugh as well ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national oops, Rio got in before me! Lets hope we're both smiling at 2.00 this afternoon then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted December 28, 2004 Author Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national 2nd, good but no cigar, still not too bad each way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national :clap Silver Birch & Ruby Walsh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national An exellent post AK with the first & second in your shortlist of four. I like to use the trends in these type of races & we both arrived at pretty much the same conclusions. I'm a big fan of Ruby Walsh, very rare he's in the wrong place in a race & he's as good as anybody IMO at the moment. Whats in the Grand slam Kev? Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manckevin Posted December 28, 2004 Share Posted December 28, 2004 Re: Welsh national One down, three to go. Started with a bank of £20 over a maximum of five selections in any of the Nationals, so £24 (£4.80 per selection) rolling forward to the Irish National (28 March), THE National (9 April) and the Scottish National (16 April). Kevin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.