Evertonboy Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Morning, After posting my selections in the Midweek section of this forum, a few people have been asking about how I come up with my prices. So, here goes... Firstly, people may be interested in reading this similar thread: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/pullein-power-95650/ and my old thread on "true odds": http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/true-odds-calculator-107725/ For those who don't know of Kevin Pullien, he is a respected Racing Post tipster. Last year I bought a his book "A Definitive Guide to Betting on Football" and produced a spreadsheet based on his calculations in order to work out the "true" chance of certain events in football matches. For this thread tho, I will concentrate on his match odds only. How I Determine The Odds The first step is to work out each team in questions profile. To do this we need to calculate their "Strike Rate". In order to calculate this you need each teams WDL record. Then using the following formula you can determine their Strike Rate: (W+(D*0.5)/(W+D+L))*100. For example, Everton based on this seasons form have a strike rate of 50% (9+14*.05)/(9+14+8)*100. In his book Kevin suggests that he has the best results using around 60 games, I tend to use data from the current season as well as last season. Once you have the strike rate from both teams, you then need to compare the results of games with similar strike rates. Don't worry - Kevin has done all the work for you and has compiled a table based on thousands of games over the last 10 years or so. This then gives you the "true" chance of the home win, away win and the draw. As Kevin states in his book, nobody can predict the future, but in his opinion, the past is the best guide to the future. He does this by using past games between similar teams (strike rate wise) as a guide. For any more info, I suggest you buy the book :lol My intention is to post my odds for the remaining Premier League games and firstly highlight the most likely winner, and if I have time any value picks. (And possibly paper-trail most likely winner/ value pick combo) Any questions/ thoughts, please ask. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gooner80 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Hey there can you explain the table are the ones highlighted the ones that match your odds calculator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Hey there can you explain the table are the ones highlighted the ones that match your odds calculator The selections highlighted are just the most likely winner, note on the Liverpool game there both just as likely to win as each each other. I'll be back later to post any value picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightfire23 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Two questions: Promoted and relegated teams rating would be screwed because they would have many wins or losses in a respectively lower or higher league. Did you find a solution for that? Could you post the table which shows at what strike ratings which match probabilities should be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Two questions: Promoted and relegated teams rating would be screwed because they would have many wins or losses in a respectively lower or higher league. Did you find a solution for that? Could you post the table which shows at what strike ratings which match probabilities should be? Promoted/ Relegated teams use a seperate rating at the start of the season based on the performance of past promoted/ relegated teams. However, seeing as tho 30 games have now been played, I am basing there strike rate on this seasons form only. The table will be no use to you as you need a formula to work out the percentage of games the home team can be expected to win v away team, which then allows you to produce further percentage chances and odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Sorry for asking, but does this method gain any profit? I must say, I am quite sceptical regarding such kind of data mining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" I setup a "complete" spreadsheet using pulleins formulae about 2 years after buying the book. I created a macro to simulate previous results (using the relative history as would have been at the time) and found no profitability whatsoever using the 1X2 or over under markets. I therefore shelved the sheet and idea, but wish you the best of luck if you tackle it and win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" I setup a "complete" spreadsheet using pulleins formulae about 2 years after buying the book. I created a macro to simulate previous results (using the relative history as would have been at the time) and found no profitability whatsoever using the 1X2 or over under markets. I therefore shelved the sheet and idea, but wish you the best of luck if you tackle it and win Can you share that analysis, it might be of benefit to others.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Quick round up so far: Most likely winners highlighted the winner in 7 out of 9 games, with one game that didnt - Backburn being the shortest price draw along with Liverpool/ Man City tonight. The Unders/ Overs didn't fair as well but still highlighted 5 out of 9 winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Midweek (Ive included all leagues) Again most likely winners highlighted in yellow, best chance draws in green. As a bit of fun, partly because Im bored in work Im going to try and combine the match odds and overs/ markets to try and predict some correct scores. Premier League Liverpool 1-1 Man City Champions League Man Utd 2-1 Chelsea Championship Barnsley 0-0 Qpr Derby 1-2 Leeds Doncaster 2-0 Preston Ipswich 2-0 Middlesbrough Leicester 3-0 Crystal Palace Millwall 2-1 Bristol City Nottm Forest 2-0 Burnley Pompey 2-0 Coventry Scunthorpe 1-3 Reading Sheff Utd 1-2 Cardiff Swansea 1-0 Hull Watford 1-2 Norwich League One Brighton 3-0 Dagenham Leyton orient 2-1 Carlisle Rochdale 1-1 Southampton Walsall 1-1 Brentford Yeovil 1-0 Notts County League Two Bury 3-0 Burton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Also, as an added extra, Should Sporting Index price up an aggregate goals market for the midweek games, I'll be looking to buy or sell with an expectation of 31.6 in mind :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diMarko Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Best of luck to you! Im gonna try some of your score markets :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" sounds a bit of fun. how did you combine them exactly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" just by looking at the match odds and unders/ overs odds and going with a score that suits both... nothing scientific! Purely just fun bets at the mo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Skills Quick round up so far: Most likely winners highlighted the winner in 7 out of 9 games, with one game that didnt - Backburn being the shortest price draw along with Liverpool/ Man City tonight. The Unders/ Overs didn't fair as well but still highlighted 5 out of 9 winners. The link to the original spreadsheet is longer working in your True Odds Calculator thread. Would you mind upping it again? I've PM'd you my email address if it's easier to just email it across. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiemcardle Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" jamiedavies02 , how do u decide on what odds each team has if your making them up yourself ? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Can you share that analysis' date=' it might be of benefit to others..........[/quote'] The sheets were about 8mg and I no longer have them. I do have other prediction sheets that incorporate pullein odds. I'm hoping to get a thread up soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" jamiedavies02 ' date=' how do u decide on what odds each team has if your making them up yourself ? :unsure[/quote'] Basically by using statistical analysis that Kevin Pullien has done over 1000s of games, and adapting that method to the teams in question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Skills The link to the original spreadsheet is longer working in your True Odds Calculator thread. Would you mind upping it again? I've PM'd you my email address if it's easier to just email it across. I'll not be making the spreadsheet available at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiemcardle Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" ok thanks :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0zymandias Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Sorry, I take it back... :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Sorry' date=' I take it back... :)[/quote'] :unsure:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" ?????????????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chikilicuatre Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Good afternoon, I am trying to download the spreadsheet and is corrupt, can anyone upload it again? Thank you. PD. Happy New Year 2012¡¡ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/6066973/kenilworth-meets-kevin-pullein "I dont actually make money doing these bets, if I did I'd have to live in Zimbabwe. I get paid by the RP, the stupid readers back them anyway whatever the prices. The bookies clean up, everyone's a winner - well apart from the readers....." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Hi. The page is three years old so possibly explains the dead link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.