BKI's Jump Betting Log

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets The Arkle Rock Noir 4pt win - 16/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Medermit 3pt win - 3/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Rock Noir looks overpriced to me. Alright, his jumping isn't the best but Sandown is a very testing trac in that department. His best round of jumping was going left-handed at Warwick when he saw off Keki Buku in a canter. At Sandown he was travelling easily before blundering a couple of fences and due to the nature of the course, had no time to re-adjust himself in between. He stayed on well to finish fourth and you have to bear in mind the mistakes would've taken a lot of him. You can forgive his dreadful run on his second chase start as he was out only 8 days later and has put that form well and truly behind him. He's had a nice break since the Scilly Isles and I do not think he should be such a big price in comparison to the horses ahead of him. I've had a saver on Medermit simply because he is the highest rated hurdler in the race by far, jumps (when he wants to :)) soundly and handles Cheltenham and the festival. It's hard to see him not featuring.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets The Arkle Rock Noir 4pt win - 16/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Medermit 3pt win - 3/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 10pt win - 11/2 (William Hill) Dunguib 2pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) Khyber Kim 1pt EW - 25/1 (Stan James, four places, 1/4) Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Another Jewel 2pts EW - 20/1 (Victor Chandler, four places) Champion Chase Somersby 3pts EW - 7/1 (William Hill - NRNB) French Opera 2pts EW - 25/1 (Paddy Power - NRNB) Champion Bumper Raise The Beat 3pt win - 16/1 (Ladbrokes, NRNB) Jewson Novices' Chase Robinson Collonges 4pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) RSA Chase The Giant Bolster 2pts EW - 25/1 (Stan James, NRNB) Time For Rupert 2pt win - 9/4 (Stan James - NRNB) Wymott - 0.75pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Kim Muir Challenge Cup Ma Yahab 0.75pts EW - 50/1 (Bet365 - NRNB, four places) World Hurdle Cross Kennon 2pts EW - 66/1 (Boyles, 1/4) Triumph Hurdle A Media Luz 4pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Zarkandar 3pt win - 13/2 (Stan James - NRNB) Gold Cup Kauto Star 4pt win - 7/1 (Lads) Long Run 3pt win - 13/2 (William Hill) Staked: 67.25pts (-4) Might add some more if I spot anything or have some savers. :) Robinson Collonges a single figure price now. :loon Champion Hurdle prices are good due to Binocular taken out. Can't see Khyber finishing outside the first four. Kauto and Long RUn have both shortened, and Raise the Beat is a 12/1 shot. 20/1 for Another Jewell has gone. Giant Bolster is 16s everywhere. French Opera is 20s now too. Just praying I don't draw a blank!

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets If we beat Menorah in the Champion, we win imo. I think Peddlers is a stayer and the rest shouldn't be good enough. With Binocular NR, Fly and Khyber all the way for me too :ok I have 20+ on Khyber from last year and was going to lay and make him just a saver, because I don't think he would have beaten Binocular, but now he is well capable of running to his last year's form and be good enough to win, so I'm keeping the whole 2pts :)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets You guys not concerned about the course and what it's beaten, with HF? Innocent question...

[bowles10]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets BKI, you have a decent book there mate well done on those prices, will be interested in how you go during the week :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

You guys not concerned about the course and what it's beaten' date=' with HF? Innocent question...[/quote'] Impossible to tell. My bet is just a loyality bet, because he's won me fair bit in Ireland in the last few seasons and I think he's a machine. It's impossible to weigh up form in these races, isn't it? All horses are 1,1,1 coming here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

Impossible to tell. My bet is just a loyality bet' date=' because he's won me fair bit in Ireland in the last few seasons and I think he's a machine. It's impossible to weigh up form in these races, isn't it? All horses are 1,1,1 coming here.[/quote'] I'm not touching the race. If I were it would be Menorah. Will be my selection in comps etc, but can't see me staking anything to be honest. Would have liked to see HF have some form with some really top hurdlers, rather than beating the same horse each time, and Kempes who has a relatively lowly rating over hurdles. The beauty of Cheltenham I suppose - we just won't know, like a lot of Irish horses, until they go. Good luck both of ya.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Solwhit's a hugely underrated animal imo. Tough and hugely versatile. After coming to England and winning at Aintree, he then defeated the Champion Hurdler Punjabi with Quevega in third. Was then sick before last year's Champion and clearly didn't run his true race. Went to Punchestown and got beat by HF on good ground. Medermit 10l back in fourth. Dunguib ran too keen, didn't run his race. A very strongly run two miles suits Solwhit a lot imo. Take Hurricane Fly out and Solwhit has won five grade ones on the bounce. A lot of them in slowly run races which doesn't suit him. HF makes him look so average and he simply isn't. It's interesting that you say you'd like to see HF have form with top hurdlers (which I think he has) and then go on to say Menorah would be your selection. I like Menorah, and think he's a danger, but what top class hurdlers has he beaten? None. I am in the 'Dunguib would have won' camp personally, so although he did win the SN, I don't think he was the best horse in the race. Oscar Whisky that day was too inexperienced (and still is). Cue Card and Silviniaco similarly have little experience and it was a slowly run trial. I think Menorah is a poor price but do fear him as he's improving, tough, hurdles well and seems to relish the course. Of course it's up for debate about whether he'll handle the course but you have to have faith in these situations. 11/2 for a horse that does everything so easily against a great yardstick was too big imo, and I still firmly believe he'll go off fav on the day. Milen, I really fear Peddlers but won't be playing again. His out-speeding of Starluck impressed me and he stays all day. Khyber looks a massive price now and if he runs anywhere near what he did last year he won't be out of the first three. Cheers Bowles. :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Watch the Neptune again and you'll fear Peddlers less. He was outspeeded and I thought he's gonna get beat, but he rallied and won staying on powerfully up the hill. I don't think he can get away with it in a Champion Hurdle. It's all about speed. He should have been chasing by now. My cat will outspeed Starluck !!

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets The most impressive part is Fly was beating Solwhit half fit. He was close to full fitness the last time and it was the most impressive of all wins with Thousand Stars setting a strong pace. Better ground will see him in even better light imo, he is electric on sounder surface. How good he is we'll learn pretty soon now. Almost there :nana

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Can't agree mate, think Starluck had the run of the race and to beat him for speed tells me a lot. Watched the Neptune yesterday and not sure he was outpaced. He was firmly on the bridle turning in and for a second he didn't appear to handle the downhill run, Maguire gave him a little push and once balanced, was immediately back on the bridle. Jumping the third-last he again needed a push and came back onto the bridle and was cruising up to the second last, didn't land with much momentum and was immediatley given the hurry up and a few smacks and ran on strongly to the line. I'm just not sure he handled jumping downhill at Cheltenham. I genuinely don't think he was outpaced. But that's just what I think. :tongue2

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Yes, I agree :lol Just watched it again. I remember Maguire urging him down the hill, but now I realize he wasn't outspeeded. I was gasping at the ride Robbie McNamara was giving Rite Of Passage at the time and didn't watch others that much. How poor was that?! A better ride and he would have won by 5L considering how good the horse turned out to be.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets I confirm my position on Starluck though. Anything can beat him any day. Not a one you can realy on in a finish. That the pace is slow and should suit him on paper is no guarantee for me. He's a bit of a dog.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Fair enough. :ok Really think HF should be outright fav though. Can see him going off the 2/1f now with no Bino in the field.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Just watching HF beat Solwhit at Punchestown last April and it's so impressive. Slow early pace and he was held right up, settled well, came into the home straight four wide with a lot of ground to make up on Solwhit who kicked clear, yet made up the ground on the bridle and found for pressure. After a massive lay-off. So impressive.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

Solwhit's a hugely underrated animal imo. Tough and hugely versatile. After coming to England and winning at Aintree, he then defeated the Champion Hurdler Punjabi with Quevega in third. Was then sick before last year's Champion and clearly didn't run his true race. Went to Punchestown and got beat by HF on good ground. Medermit 10l back in fourth. Dunguib ran too keen, didn't run his race. A very strongly run two miles suits Solwhit a lot imo. Take Hurricane Fly out and Solwhit has won five grade ones on the bounce. A lot of them in slowly run races which doesn't suit him. HF makes him look so average and he simply isn't. It's interesting that you say you'd like to see HF have form with top hurdlers (which I think he has) and then go on to say Menorah would be your selection. I like Menorah, and think he's a danger, but what top class hurdlers has he beaten? None. I am in the 'Dunguib would have won' camp personally, so although he did win the SN, I don't think he was the best horse in the race. Oscar Whisky that day was too inexperienced (and still is). Cue Card and Silviniaco similarly have little experience and it was a slowly run trial. I think Menorah is a poor price but do fear him as he's improving, tough, hurdles well and seems to relish the course. Of course it's up for debate about whether he'll handle the course but you have to have faith in these situations. 11/2 for a horse that does everything so easily against a great yardstick was too big imo, and I still firmly believe he'll go off fav on the day. Milen, I really fear Peddlers but won't be playing again. His out-speeding of Starluck impressed me and he stays all day. Khyber looks a massive price now and if he runs anywhere near what he did last year he won't be out of the first three. Cheers Bowles. :ok

If I didn't post it, I meant to, saying the same could be said for others including Menorah. But I think that it is still improving and I'd be far more confident given its course form etc. Solwhit isn't a bad horse, no, but it's hard to weigh up how really good he is right now if he runs the same races behind Hurricane Fly to be honest - and you'd expect it to beat the sub Grade 1 horses such as Thousand Stars and Voler La Vedette. My gut instinct tells me he wouldn't be a huge danger were he to run in the Champion. I would have just liked to see HF run against some of last year's good Champion finishers. I don't believe he's met any of the top 5? I can handle it with Menorah (though like I said, I won't be betting) seen as it seems to still be improving with every run.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Course form is a bit overrated at Cheltenham. If a horse clearly has performed weaker at Chelt than at other tracks, then fair enough. I will never be put off by a horse, who's coming to Cheltenham for the first time. It's far more likely that the horse will handle it than not handle it. The most important thing is the ability of the horse and most of the time good horses adapt to any conditions. People were saying the same about Mikael D'Haguenet and his high knee action, but he adjusted it and looked and galloped like a flat horse when he won the Ballymore on good ground. Just 24 hours now :loon

[billvernon]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets The Arkle Rock Noir 4pt win - 16/1 (>Bet365 - nrnb) Medermit 3pt win - 3/1 (>Bet365 - nrnb) Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 10pt win - 11/2 (>William Hill) Dunguib 2pt win - 20/1 (>William Hill) Khyber Kim 1pt EW - 25/1 (>Stan James, four places, 1/4) Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Another Jewel 2pts EW - 20/1 (>Victor Chandler, four places) Champion Chase Somersby 3pts EW - 7/1 (>William Hill - NRNB) French Opera 2pts EW - 25/1 (>Paddy Power - NRNB) Champion Bumper Raise The Beat 3pt win - 16/1 (>Ladbrokes, NRNB) Jewson Novices' Chase Robinson Collonges 4pt win - 20/1 (>William Hill) RSA Chase The Giant Bolster 2pts EW - 25/1 (>Stan James, NRNB) Time For Rupert 2pt win - 9/4 (>Stan James - NRNB) Wymott - 0.75pt win - 10/1 (>Stan James - NRNB) Kim Muir Challenge Cup Ma Yahab 0.75pts EW - 50/1 (>Bet365 - NRNB, four places) World Hurdle Cross Kennon 2pts EW - 66/1 (>Boyles, 1/4) Triumph Hurdle A Media Luz 4pt win - 10/1 (>Stan James - NRNB) Zarkandar 3pt win - 13/2 (Stan James - NRNB) Gold Cup Kauto Star 4pt win - 7/1 (Lads) Long Run 3pt win - 13/2 (>William Hill) Staked: 67.25pts (-4) Might add some more if I spot anything or have some savers. :) Robinson Collonges a single figure price now. :loon Champion Hurdle prices are good due to Binocular taken out. Can't see Khyber finishing outside the first four. Kauto and Long RUn have both shortened, and Raise the Beat is a 12/1 shot. 20/1 for Another Jewell has gone. Giant Bolster is 16s everywhere. French Opera is 20s now too. Just praying I don't draw a blank! Great set of bets you got there BKI'S - I think you might be in for an interesting Chelt Festival - BEST OF LOOK MATE - BREAK A SHOE :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Fair enough, BFR. Good luck if you decide to play. :ok Thanks Billvernon. :ok Read that The Giant Bolster's owner has backed him at 50/1 for the Gold Cup, talk about ambitious. :loon

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Spinal Research Handicap Chase Razor Royale 1.5pts EW - 33/1 (William Hill) 33/1 looks a big overreaction to his form imo. The horse has dropped markedly in the weights since his recent poor efforts and comes here off effectively 135 due to Sam's claim, so he'll be set to carry 10-8. Last season he ran here off 149 and a blunder cost him all chance. He's fine with the course, has won here before and finished a very good second to Poquelin in the Boylesports Gold Cup last year off 140. He is definitely handicapped to win now and is with a trainer that's capable of bringing him back. Big price imo.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Stan James Supreme Novices Magen's Star 2.5pts EW - 25/1 (Ladbrokes) A race I've learnt not to get massively involved with but this price just looks huge and it's clearly all down to who trains the horse. Magen's star was rated 97 at best on the flat, and is already rated 144 after two easy hurdle wins. Ok, the horse has never faced good ground, but being by Galileo I do not see it being a major problem. The horse has not come off the bridle in two outtings over hurdles and has jumped fairly well. You compare this to Spirit Son, who has done much the same on soft/heavy ground but is 6/1? He also doesn't have a wealth of flat race experience under his belt. Magen's Star is a mare and will be getting 7lbs from the field with the exception of Marsh Warbler. She is priced up at 14/1 with Skybet and that is far more realistic imo. She clearly does not lack speed, stays very well given that she has placed at a good flat level over 12f in soft ground and appears to be a very straight-forward ride from the front. On ratings, she is already ahead of a few of the principles and they have to concede weight too. Simply think she is vastly overpriced.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Two above prices have gone. :D HF joint fav now with Menorah, have a feeling 4.8 will not be available come the off! Come on the Fly!

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets A big bet for me in the Arkle now Captain Chris is here. Arkle Chase - 2:05 Captain Chris to place - 8pts @ 2.92 (current price on Betfair) Been said all season that he will need quick ground and he has won 3/4 races on good ground, only blip was second to Medermit after a poor round of jumping. Yes, on figures he has a lot to find with Ghizao but if he is a genuine good ground horse, which he seems to be, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him reverse form. His class sees him constantly place and I think with conditions to suit today he won't be out of the first three.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets :nana If the Fly wins I'll be dancing. :cow

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets

Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 10pt win (3pts already posted, additional 7) - 11/2 (William Hill) If he's pulled out this could come back to bite me in the ass massively as it's not NRNB but I have complete faith in him getting there 100% this year, Willie has mentioned this as his main priority for some time, refusing to even discuss his chances. It's a 10pt win bet in total, my max bet and 'banker' for Cheltenham. I wrote about him earlier in the season when taking the same price and he's done nothing but impress since. Lto they went a strong gallop and he cruised past Solwhit as usual and won well. A lot say he didn't find much off the bridle. Well he put 3 and a half lengths between himself and Solwit after the last on a short run-in. Also, Mullins said he'd only been working averagely during the week due to a cut he sustained. Solwhit is often massively underrated too. This horse has the style and makings of a complete champion. He does everything effortlessly and puts races to bed easily. Watching a video of Istabraq mop up Irish grade ones and they do it in the same fashion, looking a class apart. Only problem is he's yet to travel over to England and race at Cheltenham, but that's the risk you gotta take here. He battles, appears versatile in regards to ground, travels easily and jumps fluently. I have this feeling he's going to go off at 3/1 or less. When all firms go NRNB he won't be 11/2. This might seem the most 'competitive' champion for some time, but looking at the field it's easy to see what'll be said should they fail. Peddlers, Oscar and Dunguib could all need further. Mille Chief lacks experience at the top level. Binocular always runs his race at Cheltenham but is he one to trust? Menorah isn't the most experienced and should he lose will be going chasing. His run lto is also overrated due to the slow pace, he essentially did them for speed and we know Silviniaco Conti isn't a two miler, and Cue Card might be better over further too. Khyber Kim might not the be the force of old and then there's not a lot left. Whatever happens, it'll be a cracker. Hope the best horse wins (HF) ;).

LKNVNVJKRENVCLKRENCLKJRKCJML :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[Mirage]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Well done mate! Thread near profit already? :clap

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Bets so far: The Arkle Rock Noir 4pt win - 16/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Medermit 3pt win - 3/1 (Bet365 - nrnb) Captain Chris to place - 8pts @ 2.92 Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly 10pt win - 11/2 (William Hill) Dunguib 2pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) Khyber Kim 1pt EW - 25/1 (Stan James, four places, 1/4) Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Another Jewel 2pts EW - 20/1 (Victor Chandler, four places) Spinal Research Handicap Chase Razor Royale 1.5pts EW - 33/1 (William Hill) Stan James Supreme Novices Magen's Star 2.5pts EW - 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Champion Chase Somersby 3pts EW - 7/1 (William Hill - NRNB) French Opera 2pts EW - 25/1 (Paddy Power - NRNB) Champion Bumper Raise The Beat 3pt win - 16/1 (Ladbrokes, NRNB) Jewson Novices' Chase Robinson Collonges 4pt win - 20/1 (William Hill) RSA Chase The Giant Bolster 2pts EW - 25/1 (Stan James, NRNB) Time For Rupert 2pt win - 9/4 (Stan James - NRNB) Wymott - 0.75pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Kim Muir Challenge Cup Ma Yahab 0.75pts EW - 50/1 (Bet365 - NRNB, four places) World Hurdle Cross Kennon 2pts EW - 66/1 (Boyles, 1/4) Triumph Hurdle A Media Luz 4pt win - 10/1 (Stan James - NRNB) Zarkandar 3pt win - 13/2 (Stan James - NRNB) Gold Cup Kauto Star 4pt win - 7/1 (Lads) Long Run 3pt win - 13/2 (William Hill) Staked: 83.25 pts (-4 for non-runners) Returned (so far): 87.68 pts (+4.43) Into profit after one day thanks to HF and Captain Chris, absolutely over the moon. Robinson Collonge bet could make this a fantasic festival. Cheers Mirage. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets National Hunt Chase Chicago Grey 3pts EW @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, 3 places, 1/4) Relentless staying power is what's needed at Cheltenham and this horse stays, stays and stays some more. Looked the winner before coming to grief behind Wayward Prince earlier in the season, and subsequently stayed on to chase home Time For Rupert over three miles. Before that, won over three miles beating a decent Nicholls novice. Lacks speed and probably doesn't jump well enough for three miles so the four mile trip is going to suit him. Jumped poorly behind Boston's Angel in Ireland but still stayed on to finish fairly close up on vastly different ground, and only a couple of weeks after his effort behind Time for Rupert. You can ignore his Coral Cup run last year as he was running off a very high mark conceding weight to the better handicapped ones. On level weights here I think he has an outstanding chance. His course form excluding the Coral Cup is 1-F-2, and I've already spoken about the fall and it's easily excused. Very adaptable in regards to ground so I don't see the fast ground being a huge issue. If he stays up I think it's very hard to see him out the frame.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Jubail 1pt EW - 33/1 (BlueSquare, 4 places, 1/4) Really appeals to me here. Beat Plan A on his second race over hurdles holding on gamely, and then disappointed in a very odd race that was won, seemingly, by a bit of a fluke. Again, appeared to disappoint behind Moose Moran at Doncaster but it was after a long lay-off, and King said he was rushing his running plans at the time. It's no surprise he was a bit rusty that day and it should bring him nicely onto this. He runs off 121 and receives a lot of weight from Plan A, who he beat at levels earlier in the season. True, it was Plan A's hurdling debut and he was keen, but I think the prices are all wrong. King back to good form this year, and he had a winner yesterday with Bensalem. Wayne Hutchinson is in the saddle as Thornton rides the stable's 'first string'. Quick ground will help Jubail, only conditions he's won in and hopefully he'll add to that tally.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BKI's Cheltenham Bets RSA Chase The Giant Bolster to place - 4pts @ 5.8 (Betfair) Reasoning already provided for this one (25/1 taken E/W). I just feel the price is too big for this horse to place. Finished strongly up the hill last year behind Peddlers, finished strongly up the hill to win lto off a mark of 140. Everything points to this test of stamina suiting the horse and he'll be staying on up the hill while others weaken. Good ground a big bonus too.