Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011

[Tedthewolf]

Sport Horse Racing Event 2.10 KEMPTON Selection TUDOR PRINCE 0.5 Each-way Strength 3/10 Date 23/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 15.00 Reasoning Putting this up early as i don't think the price will last. Only nine go to post here and i can see this horse bounce back to form now dropped back into a C6 which its last win was at, here off 3lb higher. Now that trainers horses are in much better form can see this one taking a major role here and with most if not all of these questions to be answered TP has a good a chance as any and has a big e/w chance imo.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 2:10 Kempton - Revelator - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365) I think that Alan McCabe's lightly raced 4 year old could be worth taking a chance on his polytrack debut. He showed little if anything over the fibresand of Southwell on all 3 starts for his new yard, but they were all over 1 mile when the track was riding slow and he's a horse who wouldn't be suited to stamina tests at all, as shown when failing to see out the mile last time out when finishing 4th, well behind the leading trio but well ahead of the four behind him. Connections now decide to drop Revelator down in trip to 7f, which based on breeding, should be ideal. He's also trying out unknown territory with regards to how he'll handle the polytrack but breeding would again suggest that it shouldn't be an inconvenience by any means. Revelator is previously trained by Alan Jarvis, for whom he had his first 2 career runs with. He was well beaten on debut as a 2 year old before winning in very testing conditions over 6f at Catterick. He belied odds of 12/1 to win by an easy 2.5 lengths having been favoured by making all under Andrew Elliot. Next up was a run over hurdles after moving to the Paul Nicholls yard, in which he was sent off a 5/2 shot in a 5 runner field but pulled up having made a terrible mistake at the second hurdle. He was obviously not suited to running in that code then moved here to McCabe's yard to run his first race in a handicap, running poorly off 77 on two occasions, then that run off 67 last time out when showing a bit more and now he runs off 64 against some pretty poor opposition. There's potentially more to come from this fellow and he looks well handicapped on his Catterick win, in which he looked potentially very decent. Interestingly, Hobbie Gill (no idea who she is) was on board Revelator on all 3 of his starts for McCabe and is now replaced by James Doyle, who's a very capable jockey, especially on the All Weather. He's riding very well of late and this is his only ride of the day, plus it's McCabe's only runner of the day too. 3 of their last 10 runners have won and many more have went close, so the yard is clearly in decent order and due a bit more luck for sure. Revelator should also be much fitter for the 2 runs in December and the 1 this month, so we could see him in a much better light, especially off a mark that may underestimate his abilities if putting his best foot forward. The 20/1 looks too big and with a fair bit of guesswork involved, I priced him up as a fair 12/1 shot. I'll play small each way stakes in the hope that he still retains some of his ability and he's perfectly positioned to try to replicate those 'making all' tactics that gave him his sole career win from his 6 attempts. It's a very weak race too and he's worth taking a chance on. Also, tongue tie & cheekpieces are applied for the first time, so they could potentially spark some more improvement. 3:45 Kempton - Lowther - 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365) I'm expecting a fast and furiously run race here for this Conditions Stakes race at Kempton. There are some very decent animals turning up to contest it, including 4 potential pace setters who are bound to ensure a truly run race, which will play into the hands of the progressive Lowther. He's now 6 year old but was un-raced until he turned 4 and has been in fine fettle this winter, winning off 85 and finishing a neck 2nd off 92 to Final Drive, a horse at the top of his game and also a very easy winner off 92 since. That highly impressive horse would arguably stand a favourites chance in this race and my selection gave him one of his toughest races to date. Lowther is relatively unexposed on the All Weather, having only run 6 times on it, the first being a complete write off on fibresand back in '09 but he has been most impressive in the last couple of months on polytrack, including his first run which was over 7f here in October, in which he was a very fast finishing 3/4 length 4th behind Nazreef, a winner off 91 since. That form is also strong enough to give him a huge chance in this company and I believe that 1 mile around Kempton will be ideal for this strong traveling and fast finishing 6 year old. He'll have a few lbs to find on official ratings with some of the opposition here but I don't believe his form will fizzle out any time soon and he looks likely to have a lot more to give in competitive contests. The opposition are very good, with the likes of Gerard Butler's Beauchamp Viceroy in the field and Greyfriarschorista lining up for the red-hot Mark Johnston stable, who've had 6 winners from their last 7 runners. They're the main challengers to my selection but both are much better when getting the lead and also must get the better of another 2 front running rivals. All of this should play into the hands of the Alan Bailey runner, who thrives on the back of fast gallops and usually finishes better than anything else in his races. Assuming he's still in as good form as he has been, I can't see a better chance for Lowther to gain his 2nd win on the All Weather and his first around Kempton, a course that is made for his running style. Alan Bailey's yard are also in good knick lately, with 4 of his last 12 runners winning. His last 2 runners at Kempton have also won and the booking on JP Guillambert looks very interesting, on what is only his 5th ride for the yard and the first on board this animal. Guillambert is a good jockey in my opinion and has ridden some very nice priced winners lately. He's definitely a step up in quality when compared to Slade O'Hara, who was on board Lowther last twice and I expect his added quality and the 1 mile on the back of a strong pace at Kempton could well be a winning combination. The current 9/2 looks much too big to me and I'd have him similarly priced to Johnston's runner, who's currently a 10/3 shot and as low as 5/2 in places. It'll be a tough race to win but Bailey's runner ticks all the right boxes in what should be a very exciting race. I'll make a bold prediction and guess that my selection will win by the narrowest of margins by powering home late on! Small/medium stakes though, as it's certainly not a race for lumping on, despite the horses obvious claims.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 3:45 Kempton Beauchamp Viceroy 2pts EW - 4/1 (Bet365) Very consistent seven year-old from the Gerald Butler yard. Is a decent price after a couple of below par efforts. One was a listed race in France, and the other was a staying on effort over 7f at this track. Usually he bounces out and tries to make all, but here he was held up and not really able to land a blow. His run over 7f in a condidtions race, giving weight to the whole field, and only being caught on the line by Dream Eater reads very well. DE ran some great races last season on the flat and is rated 116. Eddie Ahern rides today and has ridden him to victory before. The blinkers go back on and the mile trip isn't a problem. Quite hard to see him being out of the first three if he jumps into his front-running routine, so a decent e/w bet here.

[Woodie]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 2.40 Mogok Ruby Pretty dire stuff at Kempton and tis race isn't anything special. None of these like wining much Divinksy realiable and will surely be there about and prob a banker for a place bet but at 9/4 is worth taking on. Perlachy bit of a character and I'd rather leave him alone especially from this kind of draw. All in all it's a bad race but at the prices I'm going to back Mogok Ruby who has shown nothing in his last dozen or some races but lto he ran 4th over c&d with Divinsky in 2nd (now a 4lb dif so hoping they can reverse placing this time round) and is now on a all time low racing of 58 20lbs lower than when he last won which was over c&d 11 months ago. Mogok Ruby @ 7/1 win Divinsky to place @ 10/11

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 I won't argue with anyone that it's a poor card today but I've still found 2 bets. 14.10 Kempton A Class 6, 7f handicap with 9 lining up and, generally, this is a set of regressive performers. Of the ones with any form, Dancing Welcome is better at Lingfield and over a furlong shorter so the 1lb rise is going to be no help either. Norville is another I think might be worth a closer look at Lingfield and has a poor lto effort to overcome, whilst Decency 2lb rise in weights isn't ideal and it's general tardy starting means it's always one to take on. Despite not having done much yet on the racecourse, I think Broughtons Day has been found an ideal opportunity on its first start in a handicap. On its 1 start as a 2yo, ran midfield in a Newmarket maiden but was then off for over a year before winning a desperate maiden at Southwell. Has been given a decent opening mark here, should appreciate the extra furlong and is up against a poor set of opponents. Stable is in red hot form and the fact the horse has recent winning form is a plus. Good draw and the jockey is fast becoming one of my AW favourites. Was trading very short last night and was therefore going to leave it well alone but opened up at a backable price today so I'm getting on. Broughtons Day, 3pts win @ 7/2 William Hill BOG 14.40 Kempton Class 5, 8 runner race over 6f. This is a bit better race than the first but not much! Perlachy has a chance but its record at Wolverhampton is much better, Dvinsky is fav but not sure why as its form is in a grade less whilst Desert Icon is disappointing from a win perspective. Sherjawy is a Kempton specialist but stable form worries me and Mogok Ruby may struggle in this grade. Despite a draw of 1 (although in an 8 runner field, it's not such a disadvantage), I'm on Best Trip. Stable's only runner, sent down from Yorkshire and has a definite chance on its last run. Very lightly raced so open to improvement, won its maiden over C&D 12 months ago. That meant an opening mark of 78 but is now down to 66 following a series of no shows. Last run here off 1lb higher was promising, 4th to Clear Praise and Picansort which is no shame in itself. That too was after almost 3 months off and in need of the race, faded inside the last after looking in with every chance. This is easier too, now dropped into 0-70 company for the first time. In a race full of exposed poor types, I think this one could overcome the 1 box and take this. Best Trip, 1.5pts EW @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

[Striker]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 Good Luck Im Laying Greyfriarschorista @ 3.7 in the 3.45 race Joe fanning a jockey i avoid on a short one like this around here

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 14:10 Kempton Broughtons Day made his all-weather debut last time out on the 14th of December in a six furlong maiden race at Southwell in only his second career start. Won the race by half a length after keeping on well inside the final furlong and despite this being a very weak maiden race, this was an improved effort on his debut on turf, especially with over a year off the track. I fancy him to improve further today on his handicap debut, especially over the extra furlong in trip. He's been handed quite a lenient mar kof 62 today in my opinion and with the stable amongst the winners recently, I fancy him to land this race. 1pt win Broughtons Day @ 9/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[Arkantos]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 15:15 Kempton Better Self has to be the pick here in what looks to be fairly comfortable company. This filly won LTO at Wolverhampton and showed great resolve to come from the back of the pack to lead with 2 furlongs to go until the end of the race. A leading chance to make it 2 wins from 2 at a shade of odds against. 1 point win Better Self @ 6/5 (General)

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 2.40 Kempton - Perlachy 10/1 VC Drifter this morning which makes this one very backable imo. Won over course and distance and although probably handicapped to the max he's probably just about capable off this mark. Trainers had a couple of big priced winners in recent weeks and question marks over all these runners. Very nice each way price. 4.15 Kempton - Humungous 14/1 Sportingbet Once a very classy horse, won off marks in the mid 90's back in 2007-2008. Only raced 7 times since 2009 and showed very little, he did however show a bit more last time out when stepped back up to 10f, stayed on one paced and lost a bit at the end with the jockey only going hands and heels, he's not getting any younger and the extra furlong here may help. Dropped to a low mark here and opposition is mostly exposed.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 Im with Woodie here - Mogok Ruby in 2.40 Kempton. Not the most consistent but 3 of 4 career wins are course and distance. Runs in class 4 normally, has won off a rating of 78. Races off 58 today in a class 5 race. It was 7-1 earlier, about that price now. Worth an each way bet, finishes fast and usually held up for a late run. 4th last time out and should have some chance 20lb lower than last win, runs well in January.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 If Perlachy hadnt of drifted so much i'd be on Mogok Ruby as well, on my recent run he'll hack up now.

[Woodie]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 Good winner Russ!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 Well done Russ :clap

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 Low Delta 4.05 Towcester. 0.5 points each way. Won this race off a higher mark last year and no apparent reason why he shouldn't go close again today. No trip and ground worries and may have just been raced of late with this in mind. Small stable, small gains and all that jazz.

[Woodie]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011

Im with Woodie here - Mogok Ruby in 2.40 Kempton. Not the most consistent but 3 of 4 career wins are course and distance. Runs in class 4 normally' date=' has won off a rating of 78. Races off 58 today in a class 5 race. It was 7-1 earlier, about that price now. Worth an each way bet, finishes fast and usually held up for a late run. 4th last time out and should have some chance 20lb lower than last win, runs well in January.[/quote'] Going to look out for this one next time, as you say he's usually held up don't know why they changed his tatics today. Could be worth following next time as he'll prob be droped another few lbs.

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 Cheers guys:ok

14.10 Kempton Broughtons Day, 3pts win @ 7/2 William Hill BOG 14.40 Kempton Best Trip, 1.5pts EW @ 7/1 William Hill BOG

After a losing day yesterday where my nap was edged out in the final stride, I was hoping for a change of luck. It didn't look likely after Broughtons Day was only beaten close home by a Quinlan horse but Best Trip came to my rescue. Drawn widest of all, Franny Norton took it into the lead and the bet was never in any danger, coming home unchallenged for a very comfortable win indeed. Overall, I'm pretty pleased with the weekend, a winner & 2 2nds from 4 runners making it profitable. Today, that's 15.6pts returned from 6pts staked for a 9.6pts profit. Very pleased with how it's going since Xmas. I post every bet I make in the daily threads (so it's similar to Bowlesy's betting book) and I'm +43.90pts from a stake of 96pts, giving a yield of over 45%. Long may it continue:ok

[Striker]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011

Good Luck Im Laying Greyfriarschorista @ 3.7 in the 3.45 race Joe fanning a jockey i avoid on a short one like this around here

:dude