Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race)

[BillyHills]

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[billvernon]

[billvernon]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) Here is the Comments Willie Mullins wrote on his own Website for racing on the 12th February - www.williemullins.com on his home page section. 12th February 2011 - Leopardstown Saturday We have two runners in the 2m 2f Deloitte Novice Hurdle. Cottrelsbooley (Emmet Mullins) won well here over 2 miles and won't have a problem with the step up in trip here. He is well suited by this track and jumps fantastic for a novice. Zaidpour (Paul) probably suffered from returning to the track too quickly when beaten last time. This trip should be okay and more rain would add to his chance. We hope he is back to his best but this is a very hot contest. Mikael D'Haguenet (Paul) goes for the 2m 5f Grade 1 Novice Chase. He was very disappointing last time but has schooled and worked well since. If he can reproduce the form of his previous run at Fairyhouse he should go close here. We also run Quel Esprit (Emmet Mullins) here. He won well last time and will love the trip and the ground. He is a natural jumper and we are expecting him to go very close. Kempes (AP McCoy) runs in the Hennessy Gold Cup. He would not want the ground to get any softer. He was running a great race in the Lexus here when unseating two out. With a little improvement he should get into the shake-up today. Champagne Agent (Patrick) goes for the bumper. He ran a terrific race here on his debut and hopefully he has come on for that run. Caolaneoin, who was second to Lovethehigherlaw, looks the one to beat. I have highlighted the text in green - I may be wrong but I thought it was worth noting. I will be more confident if ridden by his Number one rider or son :ok Leopardstown (IRE) Result 12 Feb 2011 « 5:00 Kilternan (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race

• (4-7yo) 2m Heavy
• £4,758.62, £1,103.45, £482.76, £275.86

HORSE/SPAGEWGTTRAINER/JOCKEYORTSRPRRATED «1 Caolaneoin (IRE) 3/1 511-6 Seamus Fahey —**—b g King's Theatre (IRE) - Queen Plaisir (IRE) (Grand Plaisir)Mr J A Fahey7 Tracked leaders in 5th, close up travelling well straight, quickened to lead under 1f out, ran on well, comfortably (op 5/2 tchd 9/4) 2 ¾ Giant's Quest (AUS) 33/1 511-8 D P Kelly —**—b g Giant's Causeway (USA) - Rushing Wind (IRE) (Danehill)Mr M Fahey5 Held up in 7th, progress into 4th 3f out, ridden to lead briefly 1f out, 2nd and no impression when rider briefly mistook winning post closing stages 3 ¾ Supreme Bob (IRE) 33/1 511-8 Philip Fenton —**—b g Bob's Return (IRE) - Supremememories (IRE) (Supreme Leader)Mr R J Kiely5 Held up, ridden straight, headway on outer 1 1/2f out, challenged 1f out, 3rd and kept on same pace inside final furlong 4 3 Saluting (IRE) 11/1 511-6 Mrs John Harrington —**—b g Presenting - Seymourswift (Seymour Hicks)Miss K Harrington7 Took keen hold early, settled in 2nd, close up entering straight, soon challenged, no impression final furlong, one pace (op 14/1 tchd 10/1) «5 shd Champagne Agent (IRE) 2/5F 511-13 W P Mullins —**—b g Smadoun (FR) - Madame Jean (FR) (Cricket Ball)Mr P W Mullins Led, set steady pace, joined entering straight, ridden and headed 1f out, one pace (op 4/9 tchd 4/7) «6 1 Really Unique (IRE) 16/1 611-7 John J Walsh —**—b g Witness Box (USA) - Miss Od (IRE) (Good Thyne)Mr A McCurtin7 Raced in 4th, close 3rd 4f out, ridden to dispute lead entering straight, headed 1f out, one pace (op 20/1) «7 9 Loukaja (IRE) 50/1 511-6 C Hewitt —**—b g Dr Massini (IRE) - Prudent Princess (Puissance)Mr N M Kelly7 Tracked leaders in 3rd, close 5th 3f out, one pace straight 8 ½ Kalamagdan (IRE) 33/1 410-9 M J Grassick —**—b c King's Best (USA) - Sassenach (IRE) (Night Shift)Mr M P Fogarty5 In touch in rear, no extra entering straight «9 7 Jay Cee Alexander (IRE) 50/1 711-7 J H Scott —**—b g Bravefoot - Justuandi (IRE) (Kefaah)G N Fox7 Tracked leaders in 6th, progress into 4th 4f out, weakened approaching straight 9 ran TIME 4m 13.90s (slow by 35.90s) Total SP 123% 1st OWNER: Michael J Mulligan BRED: James Hennelly TRAINER: Seamus Fahey 2nd OWNER: O B P Carroll 3rd OWNER: Coole Tavern Racing Syndicate TOTE Daily Double: @9.24. (to a @1 stake) WIN £3.60 PL £1.30, £5.80, £4.30; Ex £187.00; CSF £97.73 JACKPOT @18,186.00. Pool of @24,248.00 - 1 winning ticket. PLACEPOT @88.90. Pool of @31,637.00 - 267 winning tickets.

[King's Theatre]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) Love bumpers and the Champion bumper in particular. Real shame the Winter bumper at Newbury wasn't run after the tragedy on Saturday, would have been informative. Not a betting proposition for me, just one to enjoy, but Nicky Henderson has a Flemensfirth gelding called Hit the Headlines who I think looks absolutely class. Was entered for the Winter Bumper so he's rated highly, fences will be his game but can't wait to see his next run.

[ganjaman]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) CHAMPION BUMPER TRENDS 2011 The Weatherbys Champion Bumper, which brings the second day of the Festival to a close, is always a hot betting heat with the Irish usually getting heavily stuck into one or two of their own runners. Not surprising really seeing as an Irish trained runner has won 14 of the 18 runnings of this race since it began in 1992. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings: Age 4yo: 1-3-34 5yo: 6-11-136 6yo: 3-6-61 Very little to go from the age stats, the three age groups have done approximately as well as they ought to have done considering the percentage of the total runners each represented. Breeding Irish Bred: 8-15-153 British Bred: 2-4-53 French Bred: 0-1-20 Other: 0-0-5 8 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland and they have also filled 23 of 30 places from approximately 66% of the runners. 9 of 10 winners were sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2 on the flat Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners won a bumper with 13+ runners 10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season 9 of 10 winners had run no more than twice since August and not finished outside first 2 9 of 10 winners won last time out (exception was 2nd in Open bumper at November meeting) 9 of 10 winners had won at a left-handed track 8 of 10 winners had either been beaten or had to battle to gain one of their wins (both exceptions had run just once) Other Races Paddypower Iphone App Bumper winner (Samain): 1813 (2-1-4) Rockview Bumper winner (Lovethehigherlaw): 60030 (0-1-5) Newbury Winter Bumper winner (Ericht): 50U62 (0-1-5) Cheltenham Junior Bumper winner (Keys): 00 (0-0-2) 3 of 10 winners ran in 4yo bumper at previous Punchestown Festival, finishing 113 2 of 10 winners ran in November meeting Open bumper, finishing 21 2 of 10 winners ran in the Paddypower Iphone App bumper, finishing 11 6 of 10 winners had won a bumper at Naas or Punchestown 5 of 10 winners ran in a bumper at Punchestown Festival the previous year (one of those Festivals was run at Fairyhouse) Trainers Willie Mullins (3-1-37) has won 6 of the last 14 runnings of this but not always with his most fancied runner. He last won the race in 2008 but his 11 runners in the past 2 years have failed to make the places. Edward OGrady (1-1-6) trained the 1st and 3rd in 2002 but his other 4 runners have failed to make the frame. Joseph Crowley (1-0-1) and Jessica Harrington (1-0-1) have both won the race in the past 5 years with their only runner while Philip Fenton (1-0-3) who trained the winner in 2009 has seen all 3 of his runners go well finishing 7th, 4th and 1st. Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) trained Cue Card to win this last year. Trainers to have saddled multiple placed finishers since 2000 include Paul Webber (0-2-4), Noel Meade (0-2-4), Paul Nicholls (0-2-7) Nicky Henderson (0-2-8) and Jonjo ONeill (0-2-11) have had a couple of placed horses each. Irish trained horses (8-10-103) have won 8 of the last 10 renewals from just under 45% of the total runners. They have also accounted for 22 of the 28 to finish in the first 7 home in the past 4 years. Price No strong price trends in this race. Longer priced runners have had success with 5 of the last 10 winners going off at double-figure prices (14/1, 14/1, 33/1, 12/1 & 40/1). Favourites (2-4-10) have only won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 2.50. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Irish bred & by a sire who won a group 1 or 2 on flat · Has been taken off the bridle in a race (or run just once) · Won last time out · No more than 2 runs since August & not finished outside first 2 · Won a bumper with 13+ runners · Won at a left-handed track · Won a bumper at Punchestown or Naas · Run at the 2009 Punchestown Festival · Trained in Ireland

[billvernon]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) Well looks like LOVETHEHIGHERLAW is not running :( Reading the Racing Post this morning Patrick Mullins seems to be sweet on 19th Aug 2010 - Killarney (Ire) Result yielding 2m1f - Allure Of Illusion (IRE) 6/4F 4 11-7 W P Mullins — * * ch g Captain Rio - Sixhills (FR) (Sabrehill) Mr P W Mullins Tracked leader in 2nd on inner, lost place entering straight, soon 5th, ridden and progress from 2f out, 3rd 2f out, 2nd 1f out, stayed on well to lead close home (op 5/4) 12 ran TIME 4m 5.40s (slow by 13.40s) 13th Feb 2011 - Navan (Ire) Result Heavy 2m - Lord Gale (IRE) 5/4F 5 11-13 W P Mullins — * * ch g Bach (IRE) - Wire Lady (IRE) (Second Set) Mr P W Mullins Settled behind leaders, 6th halfway, headway in 4th 2f out, challenged 1 1/2f out, ridden to lead 1f out, kept on well final furlong (op 6/4 tchd 6/5) 12 ran TIME 4m 24.80s (slow by 53.80s) I don't think there is anything special about these two - ran in a race with less than 14 runners as well - Although the whispers are for Allure of Illusion . I think its back to the drawing board - will have to check the runners again.

[beaker1]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) keys ruled out of this because of in-jury

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) I'm pretty much finalised on Raise The Beat for this. There has to be a reason for keeping him from going over obstacles, in this particular case for the best part of 2 years. The year break between his first 2 runs would suggest that something was amiss on debut, and on his latter 2 starts he has won with ease. The lto win at Naas was a very easy 2l win from Dynamic Approach, whom had been backed as if defeat was out of the question that day, opening at 7/2 and into 9/4. That was over 19f, so the Prestbury hill should present no undue concern to him. He travelled easily help up behind what was a decent enough pace also, so should find the Cheltenham race run to suit. 16/1 nrnb available with Coral

[punter66]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) Good Luck Samba, but are you not a bit concerned that both of those wins were on good to firm? I know many others find that irellavant too though as he's been backed across the board today. Best priced at 12/1 now. I've actually pinned my Cheltenham hopes on the favourite in this race, Knight Pass has become my most gambled on over the past week. I started backing him in January @ 10/1 and have been adding bits since. Personally i think he's the best E.W Shout at the festival. In his last win he put the race to bed in just a few strides and didn't get out of 2nd gear. All the reports have been positive since from both trainer and jock. I know that Victor Chandler took a 10k bet on him back in January also. I really like what i've seen and read about him, it'll take something really special to beat him imo.

[jtw1]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) Got a text from a good friend who knows someone who recieved an e-mail from 'a reliable source' about a horse running in the Bumper . Large pinch of salt goes with that ......:lol However the name is CINDERS AND ASHES , trained by D McCain and is 14/1. The last tip he got came in at 9/1 so :hope

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race)

Good Luck Samba' date=' but are you not a bit concerned that both of those wins were on good to firm? [/quote'] Sorry mate, hadn't checked back in here since I posted!! Given the weather forecast as it were I was reasonably confident that the ground'd be no worse than Good for the race today. I think Claisse was up to his usual misdirection yesterday with the official going description, and the time suggest the real ground was Good at worse, and probably with a bit of GF in it. I'd say today's real going will definitely be G, GF in places, and Raise The Beat has shown that holds no fears :hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) Champion Bumper Go All The Way 1pt EW - 25/1 Impressive bumper form from Punchestown where he finished 2nd splitting Bishopsfurze and Kid Cassidy both of whom are now very good hurdlers. In 6th was Gagwell Flyer, who has won 3 on the bounce since. Owners had the 7th in that race and clearly liked this fella splashing 300k on him. Twiston-Davies seems to like him and I have a feeling he could be laid out for a big run tomorrow.

[bowles10]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race)

Got a text from a good friend who knows someone who recieved an e-mail from 'a reliable source' about a horse running in the Bumper . Large pinch of salt goes with that ......:lol However the name is CINDERS AND ASHES , trained by D McCain and is 14/1. The last tip he got came in at 9/1 so :hope

well i got a tip also COUSIN KHEE 33/1 from a decent source actually, working really well at home but still 33's which worries me

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Wed 5.15 : Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) ''AIDYMAC'' Had the winner of this race put up on his thread on 26th Oct 2010. #230 Sometimes it pays to note them down for another day and stick with them. Cheers fella. Cheers again :ok http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f13/market-movers-thread-64-97-points-level-stakes-106487/index12.html