Nade Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This hand is vs a 24/20 7% 3bet and loves calling opens in the BB. More than that though i have a ton of history with this guy, we've been battling for a couple of weeks. He's very trappy post flop - will often check back when hits top pair A or bet check bet - overall he's very unbalanced in his betting. The reason i 3barrel is mainly for metagame, as we play a lot i want to get in his head that i can 3barrel thin no matter if i won or lost the pot. It was pretty early on this table, but a bit before this vs his BB i cbet Q94ss then c/c 4 turn c/c 9 river and he won with 97o - he didn't see my hand though. So he bet protecting his hand on the turn - but i don't know why he expects me to c/c my draws on the turn then bet them? PKR $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1107160 DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter BB: $154.56 UTG: $96.55 MP: $104.15 CO: $90.82 BTN: $95.95 Hero (SB): $128.92 Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with 9 6 4 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2 Flop: ($6.00) 6 8 Q (2 players) Hero bets $4.00, BB calls $4 Turn: ($14.00) J (2 players) Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10 River: ($34.00) 9 (2 players) Hero bets $23.00, BB raises to $57 Call, fold or raise? and why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bignedkelly Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river would have to have him beating you here. he would surely call on 9-10 and if like you say he is trappy post flop flat calling with the double gutshot then when he hits check calls again - other possible hands that would fit the play are q-10 q-9 j-10 7h-9h 5h-7h kh-qh bottom line is that this is a very poor board for a middle of the road 2 pair and i would defo be folding here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river . More than that though i have a ton of history with this guy, we've been battling for a couple of weeks. He's very trappy post flop - will often check back when hits top pair A or bet check bet - overall he's very unbalanced in his betting. If your trying to "metagame" the guy then it's a fair price to gain more info and implant some more uncertainty in his mind about your play. All about the bigger picture? + you might win the hand:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river Don't fancy raising here as he probably doesn't call you with worse, and if you call you get to see his cards which gives you valuable information since you say he is tricky. Unless, you really doubt he has the flush, and you think he might be able to lay down a straight like hand to your jam. I imagine he would 3bet something like KQs more often than not? So we might want to rule out KhQh sometimes. A set is extremely unlikely too. One thing to consider is whether he can check-raise for value thinly; he might recognise that you won't have the flush here too often (or maybe a bet-sizing tell from you?) and raise his straight on the river. If he has never shown to be capable of that then I would lean towards a fold. Otherwise you only need to be right 30% of the time here and a call wouldn't be horrible; if you lose at least you get some info too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river I actually folded because like everyone says here there's just so little that makes sense that we beat with both straights and flushes getting there plus all the higher 2pairs. I was so confident the 96 was beat i folded and showed it. The funny thing is you guys say you'd call to see what he had mainly but expect to be beaten (and i agree that would have been a fair play) He showed his hand anyway. A pure bluff 58o, no heart no nothing. I got absolutely owned there's no question about it. The hand keeps going round my head and i still can't work out why he's played his hand like this. Two things spring to mind: 1) He's just clicking buttons. Definitely possible, plays a lot of hands v.badly. 2) When he has a value hand he near always goes for just 2sts of value either check-bet-bet or bet-check-bet. I've been thinking about this some more today and it's worth wondering whether he assumes all people play value hands much like him so sees 3barrels as more weighted towards bluffs. This might not be true for him in this scenario but it got me thinking - If i go through players HHs and see what type of plays they take as value i.e with TPTK AK bet-check-bet, they should be more inclined in theory to fold in situations where they've been bet-check-bet into. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river I take it your software lets you know how you are doing against individuals and how that individual does overall, both would be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river I'm +$130 on him in 136 hands, he's up +$18 after 668 hands overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river I'm +$130 on him in 136 hands' date=' he's up +$18 after 668 hands overall.[/quote'] Not really worth worrying about then. Would have needed some serious brain mush if the heads up stats had been the other way round and he was a big winner overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river 668 hands is a pretty small sample size to judge any kind of winrate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river 668 hands is a pretty small sample size to judge any kind of winrate. I'm old school- cut the deck and you've got a winner and a loser;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: 2pair gets raised on river The math guys get themselves in a tangle. It's all about high win-rate over large sample-size and EV for them. Then they come out with golden nuggets like with standard deviation it's possible to not know your true winrate for 2million hands. A live player gets in what a few thousand in a life-time? When Doyle dies he's not thinking oh damn maybe i was crap cus i didn't get in 'enough' hands. His sample size is his life. Also there's so many outside factors that go affect form at a poker table, nobody, except maybe huge multi-tabling nits play the same over a large sample. So i agree with you both, i'm just saying math is idiotic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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