NFL Week Fifteen Picks

[AGurv]

NFL 2010-2011 Overall 33W-24L-1P +5.50 units (57.89%) Last Week 4-1 The Back door of the year screwed a perfect week with the Colts Bengals -1 (-120) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Can't believe I'm betting on this . Even though the Browns won the last game, the Bengals out gained them by over 125 yards and had 350 yards passing on them. Colt Mccoy still ? for this game as well, who knows how he will play after missing a few weeks now if he does play. The key here is Carson Palmer turnovers...maybe run the ball with Benson a bit more...

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Saints pick +100 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Seems like a joke line. We saw this Ravens defense totally fall apart. No doubt the Texans are a great passing team. But they could have crushed this team if you look at all the dropped pass the Texans had. Foster had a pretty good game. This Ravens offense not really working that well. I say Saints win this one and they do it easily.

[v-zero]

NFL Week Fifteen Picks I have been working on a model for NFL matches that simulates matches between teams. Each game is simulated two hundred thousand times. These are the predictions for this week's matches: Feel free to ask any questions you like, or request calculations for certain games. I am not going to divulge the full nature of the beast, but it is a piece of software I wrote myself which takes fifteen input statistics and simulates games using them.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Pretty interesting. Does it take into account things like weather? For example the usual Vikings game would be in a 72 degree dome. The Bears-Vikings game will be below 0.

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Pretty interesting. Does it take into account things like weather? For example the usual Vikings game would be in a 72 degree dome. The Bears-Vikings game will be below 0.

No allowance for weather. It's not a very quantifiable thing to consider, as was aptly proven by the Patriots last weekend. Feel free to adjust the lines as you see fit. However, I do not personally believe it makes a huge difference unless neither team is at all used to such temperatures.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

. We saw this Ravens defense totally fall apart.

Very good article in the Baltimore Sun about their D... ...summary being, they are old(ish)...have allowed the most 4th quater points by a fair way... ...but the main point is that, as I suggested before the game (oh, good for me... :eyes ), their running game is just awful, and they simply cannot run out the game to hold onto leads...as witnessed by throwing on 3rd and 2 late last week. :$ Having said that of course, Houston did convert 3 (4?) 4th downs to get where they did...and a couple were just plays which were simply too good... Anyway, pretty solid 'under' trend this week, which I definately will not be taking! :lol Plays for me this week will be an under tomorrow if I can find a 45 (doubtful, but over 75% of people on the over at concensus sites, so maybe...)... ...Indi/Jax over for sure, Philli/NYG under for sure, Caro -3, and still thinking about a Houston/Tenn under (despite Houston giving up 29+ in each of their last 9 bar Rusty Smith!!), but at this stage it's in the same boat as the Ravens. :D Was very tempted by a Miami under (and even possibly a Buff cover), but would anyone believe that Buff have given up 31+ in 5 of 6 on the road??!! :eek Big trends on Atlanta to roll on...and, I gotta say, having looked at games the same way for so long now, I usually have a reasonable feel for what the numbers will say... ...until now. Oakland are in a 1-14-1 spot. With good yards last week, Denver obviously of an awful loss I was looking for the Raiders to be a decent play this week. [And of course they still may be!!]...but history suggests they will struggle. Of course, you'd be a braver man than me to oppose them... :unsure Good luck with Cinci Alex...honestly... :lol ;) EDIT: And :welcome v-zero, but I don't think NE 'proved' (or otherwise) anything last week. They are the absolute Kings of cold/crap weather football [v. Tenn last year for example]...and you're last point is valid, in that the Bears are used to playing in sub-freezing temps, Vikes are not. Not that I'm speaking on behalf, but I'm pretty sure that's what AGurv was getting at. :ok Still, BOL with any bets that you make this week...which I hope you'll post. :cheers [Oh, and if either SF or SD score their 'predicted' scores, I'll input 15 things into myself...:unsure :rollin ] :drums

[v-zero]

EDIT: And :welcome v-zero, but I don't think NE 'proved' (or otherwise) anything last week. They are the absolute Kings of cold/crap weather football [v. Tenn last year for example]...and you're last point is valid, in that the Bears are used to playing in sub-freezing temps, Vikes are not. Not that I'm speaking on behalf, but I'm pretty sure that's what AGurv was getting at. :ok Still, BOL with any bets that you make this week...which I hope you'll post. :cheers [Oh, and if either SF or SD score their 'predicted' scores, I'll input 15 things into myself...:unsure :rollin ] :drums

The fact that the bears play half their games (at least) in such crap weather will have helped their defensive stats on the season, against teams who had to handle not just their D, but also their horrible conditions. As such I would suggest that the effect of the weather is already reflected by their stats, meaning there is not much (if any) of an allowance needed for their conditions. I'll be putting £10 on any favourite (according to my probabilities) that is also value; Green Bay, for instance, and San Diego. I'll post up bets I have placed, and also the spread betting lines to see if I can beat the supremacy and total points lines. EDIT: As far as the strange expected scores, they are an average of the 200,000 scores for each team during the simulations. Obviously certain scores are not often seen in the NFL, but we can expect the scores to fall reasonably close to these scores, unless the game is an outlier. For the total points betting the sum of those scores is a completely valid predictor, and as such a bet on the unders in the SD game looks good.

[v-zero]

Ok, spread bets for the SD game: SD/SF 9-11 so that's a buy. Total points 43 - 46 so that's a sell. SD points 26.5 - 28 so that's a sell. SF points 16 - 17.5 so that's a sell. Also have a bet on SD to win @ 1.23 on Betfair. As an aside, I compiled this yesterday. It's a ranking of NFL teams by their generic win probability, which is the probability each team would beat a theoretical league average team at a neutral site. EDIT: Since the Vikes aren't playing in their dome this weekend, it may be worthwhile to consider their probabilities with no home field advantage. In that case the Vikes have 0.42, and the Bears 0.58, the spread is Vikes +2, the expected score 14 - 12.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks San Diego -13.5 @ 2.75 centrebet San Diego with 286 passing yards per game and 114 rushing yards per game, will look to open up the 49ers, with QB Rivers looking for Jackson and Floyd, while the run game has some talent in Sproles, Tolbert and Mathews. San Fran allows 241 passing yards per game (ranked 23rd) while they allow just 100 rushing yards. Can see Rivers doing well here. San Francisco are without RB Gore for the rest of the season so QB Alex Smith continues to have to make the plays for this offence. He has been far too inconsistent and now he faces one of the best defences in the league. San Diego have allowed just 173 passing yards and 92 rushing yards per game, while they already have 38 sacks (3rd in the league) so expect them to pressure Smith all game. San Diego are much better on both sides of the ball, and are 5-2 at home, with 4 of their wins by 21+ points while SF are just 1-5 on the road, and have lost 3 of their 6 away games by 14+ points. The Chargers look too good here Overall: 32-49 (-4.50)

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Alex Smith Under 225.5 passing yards @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) SF 49ers are up against the Chargers, who have one of the best defenses in the league, and rank 1st in pass defense. So I expect the inconsistent Alex Smith to struggle here. He had a good game most recently against Seattle putting 255 yards on the board but has only beaten this total 3 other times against New Orleans (Week 2), Kansas City (Week 3), and Philadelphia (Week 5). Up against the best pass defense in the league I don't expect him to reach this total.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Good luck Rick...reckon you're on a pretty good thing there. His record on the road has been poor. :ok SF @ SD under 45 (1.90 @ Cent) League: 7-22 under (Av. total 43.0...av. svore 37.4) road 7+ dog off a 7+ ats win as 3+ fav, if previous opp had 4+ TO's. [sF] [1-7 (Av. score 30.0!) if opp (SD) won 10+ ats] [0-5 (Av. score 35.4) non-Conf.] SD also in a pretty good under spot based on their run D from last week... ...which tbh, is probably more relevant, given as Rick has pointed out, Smith just doesn't get it done on the road...and SF av. just 15.5 on the road as it is...but take out the 2 games in which they topped 100 rushing (v. 2 terrible run D's, Caro and Zona), they av. just 11.5!! But, their D has held up well all year, and surprisingly it's the best D the Chargers have faced at home all season...5 games they've played against teams in the bottom 9 for total D,...KC 18th...Oakland are 14th. SF are 11th. Good Luck guys. :cheers [Oh, and Alex, that other thing has been done. :ok ] EDIT: And yeah, sorry v-zero, I realise the numbers were averages of averages, I was just messin with you. ;) Good luck...although a LOT of bets to be having on one game :\ It only takes one 'unexpected' thing to happen and things don't work out so well...

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Gates and Floyd OUT.

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Good luck Rick...reckon you're on a pretty good thing there. His record on the road has been poor. :ok SF @ SD under 45 (1.90 @ Cent) League: 7-22 under (Av. total 43.0...av. svore 37.4) road 7+ dog off a 7+ ats win as 3+ fav, if previous opp had 4+ TO's. [sF] [1-7 (Av. score 30.0!) if opp (SD) won 10+ ats] [0-5 (Av. score 35.4) non-Conf.] SD also in a pretty good under spot based on their run D from last week... ...which tbh, is probably more relevant, given as Rick has pointed out, Smith just doesn't get it done on the road...and SF av. just 15.5 on the road as it is...but take out the 2 games in which they topped 100 rushing (v. 2 terrible run D's, Caro and Zona), they av. just 11.5!! But, their D has held up well all year, and surprisingly it's the best D the Chargers have faced at home all season...5 games they've played against teams in the bottom 9 for total D,...KC 18th...Oakland are 14th. SF are 11th. Good Luck guys. :cheers [Oh, and Alex, that other thing has been done. :ok ] EDIT: And yeah, sorry v-zero, I realise the numbers were averages of averages, I was just messin with you. ;) Good luck...although a LOT of bets to be having on one game :\ It only takes one 'unexpected' thing to happen and things don't work out so well...

Agreed. Pretty low stakes for me, though, and there are a whole lot of games this weekend (as any...) so I can hope to get some of them right. Anyway, the proof is in the pudding, I've never been one to shy away from testing my theories. :hope

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks The bears do not play half there games in that weather. A lot of snow/wind/temp. records were broken last weekend in the Midwest of the US. The Vikiings Bears game will be something none of them are used too. The forecast is supposed to be around 0 F, and a windchill of -15 F. Chicago is cold as hell. But Minnesota is a tundra. Just saying though. Overall that is something interesting stuff, I wanna see how it does this weekend Good stuff taza :notworthy

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

The bears do not play half there games in that weather. A lot of snow/wind/temp. records were broken last weekend in the Midwest of the US. The Vikiings Bears game will be something none of them are used too. The forecast is supposed to be around 0 F, and a windchill of -15 F. Chicago is cold as hell. But Minnesota is a tundra. Just saying though. Overall that is something interesting stuff, I wanna see how it does this weekend Good stuff taza :notworthy

Points taken.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks not trying to knock your simulation either, like I said I wanna see how it does. Hopefully well considering it has both teams I bet so far winning :)

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

not trying to knock your simulation either' date=' like I said I wanna see how it does. Hopefully well considering it has both teams I bet so far winning :)[/quote'] I know, and certainly I wish you good luck with those bets. You've picked two (according to my simulations) close games there - should be interesting! :hope

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Ok, spread bets for the SD game: SD/SF 9-11 so that's a buy. Total points 43 - 46 so that's a sell. SD points 26.5 - 28 so that's a sell. SF points 16 - 17.5 so that's a sell. Also have a bet on SD to win @ 1.23 on Betfair. As an aside, I compiled this yesterday. It's a ranking of NFL teams by their generic win probability, which is the probability each team would beat a theoretical league average team at a neutral site. EDIT: Since the Vikes aren't playing in their dome this weekend, it may be worthwhile to consider their probabilities with no home field advantage. In that case the Vikes have 0.42, and the Bears 0.58, the spread is Vikes +2, the expected score 14 - 12.

Settling up on these then. Flat bet on (not ten as stated before) on SD returns +2.185. As for the spreads: SD/SF = (34-11)= +23 Total points = (43-41)= +2 SD Points = (26.5-34)= -7.5 SF Points = (16-7) = +9 All in all, for this game that comes to +28.685 :beer

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Flat bet of £100 (not ten as stated before)

:lol I was wondering why you were making spread bets with their potential for big swings either way, and then trying to win 2 bucks on the ML! :lol Super good day for everyone by the looks. :ok [Just one thing v...forum rules are that no-one really needs/wants/likes to see actual dollar (pound even ;) ) figures, but hey, I'll leave it up to you. Certainly seem genuine enough, and I'd be pretty confident in saying that no-one here is going to get offended. ] :cheers

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks V-Zero, do you always have the predicted score have a margin within .5pts of your handicap line? I noticed you have a predicted score of 14-14 for Vikings yet the win probabilities don't seem to account for a tie at all? On to some bookie help... Anyone know the best place to do quarter and half betting? San Diego have won 12/13 2nd halves now, but I can't ever seem to find a place that does 2nd half betting, except maybe Will Hill? Also, anywhere do player rushing/passing/receiving spread betting? Have a feeling Jonathan Stewart going is going to crush everything this week. I'm expecting 150+ with 2 TDs. Something I spotted last week too... In the last 11 Quarters (including 1 overtime period), the Steelers have exactly ONE offensive TD and 9 field goals. Could quite possibly see this game ending 15-9 with nothing but FGs. Might have to have a look at the # of field goals line and the no touchdown scorer odds.

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

:lol I was wondering why you were making spread bets with their potential for big swings either way, and then trying to win 2 bucks on the ML! :lol Super good day for everyone by the looks. :ok [Just one thing v...forum rules are that no-one really needs/wants/likes to see actual dollar (pound even ;) ) figures, but hey, I'll leave it up to you. Certainly seem genuine enough, and I'd be pretty confident in saying that no-one here is going to get offended. ] :cheers

Thanks. I'm pretty new here, I post my results in terms of points gained/lost in future - I'll leave my play per point out of it. I'll amend that post now. :ok

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

V-Zero, do you always have the predicted score have a margin within .5pts of your handicap line? I noticed you have a predicted score of 14-14 for Vikings yet the win probabilities don't seem to account for a tie at all? On to some bookie help... Anyone know the best place to do quarter and half betting? San Diego have won 12/13 2nd halves now, but I can't ever seem to find a place that does 2nd half betting, except maybe Will Hill? Also, anywhere do player rushing/passing/receiving spread betting? Have a feeling Jonathan Stewart going is going to crush everything this week. I'm expecting 150+ with 2 TDs. Something I spotted last week too... In the last 11 Quarters (including 1 overtime period), the Steelers have exactly ONE offensive TD and 9 field goals. Could quite possibly see this game ending 15-9 with nothing but FGs. Might have to have a look at the # of field goals line and the no touchdown scorer odds.

Since the number of times a tie takes place in the NFL is so tiny that the betting markets generally consider it a binary result market, I also do this. As such that prediction of 14-14 is a suggestion that this game is particularly likely (though only relative to the usual likelihood of between 3% and 6%) to go to overtime. As for whether my line is set within 0.5 of the difference between expected scores... it usually is, yes, though it is directly calculated, and then rounded. I then check each line to make sure it gives a 50/50 proposition by entering it back into the model.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Cheers for the explanation. Good luck this weekend :ok

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Good luck Rick...reckon you're on a pretty good thing there. His record on the road has been poor. :ok

Thanks mate, inspired by all your player bets to be honest. You any idea when these bets are first put up on Ladbrokes, I reckon you can get some good lines when they first come out???

Alex Smith Under 225.5 passing yards @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) SF 49ers are up against the Chargers, who have one of the best defenses in the league, and rank 1st in pass defense. So I expect the inconsistent Alex Smith to struggle here. He had a good game most recently against Seattle putting 255 yards on the board but has only beaten this total 3 other times against New Orleans (Week 2), Kansas City (Week 3), and Philadelphia (Week 5). Up against the best pass defense in the league I don't expect him to reach this total.

Quite an easy win.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks :cheers They seem to be getting posted later and later... ...Ladbrokes were always out quite early with 365 following about 12 hours later, but now it seems Laddies have gone a bit more conservative. Generally the last few weeks they've been coming out at around midday Saturday my time (GMT+10)... ...but, to be honest they never really change much. They have relatively low limits (early anyway, I've got a feeling they may increase closer to game time :\ ), so there's every chance this forum has been responsible for the odd move or two... :D ...but yeah, generally pretty stable. I don't know anywhere that does spread betting tho Crouchy...besides Lads and 365, about the only others I know that even do it are Olympic, but very limitted selections, and a place called sportsbetting.com, but I found them to be a pain in the butt to get money back out of. [Not that they were trying to rip me off, but I had to ring to arrange a bank transfer and people who could barely speak English just couldn't grasp that Australian banks have different numbering systems than the US. :unsure ]

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Marshawn Lynch Under 50.5 rushing yards @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) - Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks Getting on the player props again for the weekend. I like this bet because Lynch is awful and consistently bad. Since he was acquired by the Seahawks he has only beat this total twice, against Arizona and Carolina, who are ranked 30th and 25th on rush defense. With Atlanta having a much weaker pass defense than rush defense, I expect Hasselbeck to get most of the offensive emphasis and for Lynch not to be trusted. In the last four games, only against Carolina did he have more than 10 rushing attempts. I fully expect him to get very few yards and for this bet to come through.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Yeah, some fair points there Rick. :ok Blount OVER 70.5 (1.86 @ 365) Schaub OVER 265.5 (1.83 @ Lad) Eli under 248.5 (1.86 @ 365) Ryan OVER 230.5 (1.83 @ Lad) Indi v. Jax OVER 48 (1.96 @ Betstar) Philli @ NYG under 46 (1.95 @ Pinnacle) Atlanta -6 (1.94 @ Betstar) Carolina -3 (2.05 @ Centrebet) TB/Pitts ML double (2.02 @ Betstar) Sorry gang, some reasons later on... ...I've got beer to drink and cricket to watch! :tongue2

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Blount: Would you believe has played only 4 games at home...one v. Pits which just doesn't count... ...20/103 v. Atl, 19/91 v. Caro, 11/72 v. SL are the others... ...and he's the key man, no-one else has more than 5 runs in any of those games... ...which leaves Det on the road; Jones/Barber 24/87, F. Jax 25/133, Bradshaw/Jacobs 28/180, 23/160 AP...17/50 Forte... Should have a big day. 20+ should do it for sure. Schaub: Only 178 last game v. Tenn, but v. Rusty Smith so no need to throw... ...he has been under this number 8 times, but 6 against top 9 or beter pass D's (Tenn 28th)...the only 'bad' game is very early with a 241 v. Dallas... ...Tenn have given up 319 to Payton, 305 to Rivers, 406 to Romo and 341 to Orton are the only decent QB's they've faced. Ryan OVER 230.5: Seattle are a joke...4 games...4...against teams who are not in the bottom 11 for passing yards...and yet still allow the 3rd most yards through the air!!! Awful. Honestly, throw out SF, Caro, KC, Zona, Oak, Zona & SL... ...given up 382 to Brees, 290 to Eli, 290 to Cutler, 455 to Rivers and 307 to Orton... ...Ryan has gone under this number just 5 times, v. 3rd, 5th, 10th, 11th, 16th ranked D's... Total mismatch.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Steelers officially come out to this song now, went to high school with this kid http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhCpcdb_kig?fs=1&hl=en_US">' alt='object>'>

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Baltimore/NO Over 44 The Ravens showed last week their defense is a shell of what it once was if teams attack their secondary. The Raven pass rush hasn't been as fierce in years past if you can contain Ngata their defense struggles to get off the field. The Saints are getting into gear and have scored 30+ points in 5 straight. The Ravens offense has held up however. Their run game isn't what it was but Flacco continues to improve. Weather shouldn't be factor, so expect there to be points.