NFL Week Fifteen Picks

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Picks to beat the spread (using my model): Cardinals Falcons Dolphins Lions Titans Colts Rams Saints Giants Redskins The Packers game is being ignored since Rodgers is out.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Indi v. Jags over 48 League: 32-18 over, off a 7+ SU win as home 3+ fav with 200+ rush. [Jax] 17-2! (Av. total 43.0...av. score 53.7!) if opp last had 32+ TOP. 8-0 (Av. total 47.7...av. score 60.8!!) if total is 44.5+ Bouman or Garrard, shouldn't matter. Jags will run one way, Indi pass back the other, all day long. Last score probably wins. (Go Jags! :hope ) Atlanta -6 League: 13-4-2 (Av. win 12.4) road 3+ fav off a 7+ ats win as road 3+ fav with 34+ TOP. [Atl] (6-0 (Av. win 19.3!!) if total is 42.5+) 9-0-2 (Av. win 15.9) if they last held their opp to

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks San Diego -13.5 @ 2.75 :D Week 15: 1-0 (+1.75) Overall: 32-49 (-4.50) (Update at the end of the week) Carolina -6.5 @ 2.73 centrebet Carolina has a rookie QB in Clausen so they will look to Stewart to run the ball and he has averaged over 100 yards a game in his last 3 starts as he has 133 rushing yards against Atlanta last week. While they only pass for 151 yards per game, they do run an average of 112 yards per game (ranked 15th). They face an Arizona rush defence that allows 143 rushing yards per game (ranked 30th) and has allowed over 150 yards on the ground 5 times this year. Arizona also struggles to defend the pass, allowing 236 passing yards per game (ranked 25th) Arizona also have a rookie QB in Skelton, as they average 182 passing yards per game (ranked 31st) and he will get quite a bit of pressure from a Carolina pass defence that allows just 206 passing yards per game (ranked 10th). Arizona struggles to run the ball, as they average 90 yards per game (ranked 28th), and even though they had 211 rushing yards last week, it was against a poor Denver side. They may get some yards on the 25th ranked Carolina rush defence that allows 133 rushing yards per game, but expect Carolina to send an extra player in to block the gaps in the line, as the secondary should have things well covered. Arizona struggle on offence and defence, while Carolina can run the ball and have a good pass defence. With Arizona making the long trip to the west coast, and they have won just once on the road, expecting them to further struggle, as 4 of these 5 losses are by 10+ points. Dallas -13.5 @ 2.90 centrebet Dallas have been playing much better since their new coach took over as they are averaging just over 150 rushing yards in their last 4 games as they had 217 rushing yards at Indianapolis 2 weeks ago. Also they still average 264 passing yards per game (ranked 4th) and face a Washington secondary that allows 261 passing yards per game (ranked 29th) while they also allow 134 rushing yards per game (ranked 28th) Washington have been inconsistent in moving the ball, even though they pass for 241 yards per game (ranked 10th), as QB McNabb has 14 TD with 15 INT. They also run for 97 yards per game (ranked 29th). Their OL has allowed 37 sacks this year, so like Demarcus Ware to do well here to get to the QB. Dallas allows 254 passing yards per game (ranked 27th) but the secondary has managed 10 of its 15 INTs in its last 5 games, so their some improvement there. They also allow 113 rushing yards per game (ranked 17th). Washington is 3-3 on the road and in their losses they have lost by 14, 12 and 24 points. They have won just once in their last 6 games, and lost 12 of their last 14 visits to Dallas. While Dallas has form, Washington does not have any at all, and they look like they lack motivation for their games. Oakland -13.5 @ 2.90 centrebet Oakland's QB Campbell threw for 324 yards in the loss at Jacksonville as they average 200 passing yards per game (ranked 24th). Their strength is in the run as they average 149 yards per game (ranked 3rd) with RB McFadden rushing for 993 yards and 7 TDs this season. He should do well here as Denver allows 29 points per game on 150 rushing yards (ranked 31st), as well as 227 passing yards (ranked 19th) Denver QB Orton has 3,653 passing yards, for 20 TDs and 9 INTs as they average 263 passing yards per game (ranked 5th), while they average just 90 rushing yards per game (ranked 29th). Oakland struggle to stop the run, allowing 133 yards per game, but they are ranked 7th in defending the pass with 203 passing yards allowed per game. They also have a very good pass rush, with 38 sacks for the year (tied for 3rd), so expect to see plenty of pressure on Orton in this game. Denver have won just once on the road, and in their 6 losses, they have lost by 14+ points in 3 of these games. Oakland are good enough to stop the Denver passing game while doubt that Denver can stop McFadden from running all over them

[kentuckyfriedbeefcake]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Dallas (-6) are a good bet to beat a very poor Redskins team and I have a feeling Jacksonville (+4.5) might beat the Colts.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Oakland -13.5 @ 2.90 centrebet Oakland's QB Campbell threw for 324 yards in the loss at Jacksonville as they average 200 passing yards per game (ranked 24th). Their strength is in the run as they average 149 yards per game (ranked 3rd) with RB McFadden rushing for 993 yards and 7 TDs this season. He should do well here as Denver allows 29 points per game on 150 rushing yards (ranked 31st), as well as 227 passing yards (ranked 19th) Denver QB Orton has 3,653 passing yards, for 20 TDs and 9 INTs as they average 263 passing yards per game (ranked 5th), while they average just 90 rushing yards per game (ranked 29th). Oakland struggle to stop the run, allowing 133 yards per game, but they are ranked 7th in defending the pass with 203 passing yards allowed per game. They also have a very good pass rush, with 38 sacks for the year (tied for 3rd), so expect to see plenty of pressure on Orton in this game. Denver have won just once on the road, and in their 6 losses, they have lost by 14+ points in 3 of these games. Oakland are good enough to stop the Denver passing game while doubt that Denver can stop McFadden from running all over them

Tebow gets the start for Denver. I'm on Denver +7.5 in spite of this, as Oakland struggle as favorites. Also, I would imagine that Tebow will run and run and run...they may keep it close just pounding the ball. And also, more than 7 in a divisional matchup is a lot.

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Picks to beat the spread (using my model): Cardinals Falcons Dolphins Lions Titans Colts Rams Saints Giants Redskins The Packers game is being ignored since Rodgers is out.

I actually took these in the end due to line moves and the fact that McNabb didn't get the start: To win: Giants Saints Colts Titans Bengals Dolphins Falcons Against the spread: Saints Giants Colts Titans Lions Dolphins Falcons All were chosen using my predictions, so there's no special secret to why I chose these. Apologies for posting after the off. :eyes

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks interesting so far..

[Rick121212]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Marshawn Lynch Under 50.5 rushing yards @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) - Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks Getting on the player props again for the weekend. I like this bet because Lynch is awful and consistently bad. Since he was acquired by the Seahawks he has only beat this total twice, against Arizona and Carolina, who are ranked 30th and 25th on rush defense. With Atlanta having a much weaker pass defense than rush defense, I expect Hasselbeck to get most of the offensive emphasis and for Lynch not to be trusted. In the last four games, only against Carolina did he have more than 10 rushing attempts. I fully expect him to get very few yards and for this bet to come through.

Got on Blount (thanks Tazo) but this is bad when on the first drive Lynch gets 30 yards and a TD. Where the hell has that come from? Not a good start.

[lammy1952]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Indi v. Jags over 48 League: 32-18 over, off a 7+ SU win as home 3+ fav with 200+ rush. [Jax] 17-2! (Av. total 43.0...av. score 53.7!) if opp last had 32+ TOP. 8-0 (Av. total 47.7...av. score 60.8!!) if total is 44.5+ Bouman or Garrard, shouldn't matter. Jags will run one way, Indi pass back the other, all day long. Last score probably wins. (Go Jags! :hope ) Atlanta -6 League: 13-4-2 (Av. win 12.4) road 3+ fav off a 7+ ats win as road 3+ fav with 34+ TOP. [Atl] (6-0 (Av. win 19.3!!) if total is 42.5+) 9-0-2 (Av. win 15.9) if they last held their opp to Disappointing result tonight Taza for Jags, although not totally finished yet as I think Indy will find it tough at Oakland next week. Here's hoping, and after your initial call, a further good pointer to lay off on Indi a few weeks ago, leaving a profit on either but as you say "Go Jags".

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Some massive comebacks today, with plenty of upsets Carolina -6.5 @ 2.73 :D Dallas -13.5 @ 2.90 :wall Unbelievable how they win this by just 3 points. Led by 16 points going into the 4th quarter and then give up 2 TDs for Washington to tie it up. All game, Washington struggled to move the ball, and they got 2 of their TDs due to stupid penalties that allowed them to continue the drive. Oakland -13.5 @ 2.90 Green Bay +7.5 @ 3.05 centrebet With Rodgers out, GB will rely on Flynn to manage the offence. They still have Jennings and Driver to aim for, while Jones and Nelson are handy players too. The NE secondary has been porous this year, with 266 passing yards allowed. Though GB do not have much of a run game, expect them to air the ball and take advantage of these problems NE has in the secondary. NE's QB Brady has been in great form, as he leads an offence that has averaged 425 total yards in their last 5 games. He will be up against a pretty good secondary with Woodson and Williams both in very good form, while the pass rush led by Mathews has been doing the job. This defence can compete with anybody, and since NE does not run the ball much, especially with the way that Brady is playing, like them to play well here. GB have not lost by more than 4 points all year, so like them to keep it close. Week 15: 2-1 (+2.48) Overall: 32-49 (-4.50) (Update at the end of the week)

[v-zero]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks The Giants left me with loss on this week on the betfair account, with a -7.45 point loss on the day, however the spread bets on sportingindex continued to shine with a +37 point gain to add to the gain on the Chargers game. EDIT: Starting to wish I hadn't dropped the Packers game.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Oakland -13.5 @ 2.90 :D They took their time to overwhelm the Broncos but eventually got the cover Green Bay +7.5 @ 3.05 :D Once again they lose by 4 points or less, but they should have won this. Two plays either side of half time changed this game. Packers lead 17-7 and that kick return by the OL for nearly a TD, and then that INT that Wynn throws when nobody was there, quickly saw them go down 21-17. Though they got back to lead in the second half, it was just a matter of time before Brady controlled the ball and lead them to a victory Week 15: 4-1 (+6.43) Overall: 32-49 (-4.50) (Update at the end of the week)

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks The Eagles comeback was top 5 best games I've ever seen tbh

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Vikings +7.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes I think the cold is going to make teams run the ball a bit more and in this situation you can always count on Adrian Peterson. Do I know anything about Webb? Not really, but he can't be much worse then the two clowns before him IMO. Cutler is sporadic, he looked almost perfect last time they played. Frazier is a defensive coach, surely they will make adjustments.

[rleague_punter]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks What about Chicago's no 2 ranked defence vs the run? If chi can shut down A.P i don't see them scoring a point in this weather AGurv?

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Do I know anything about Webb? Not really' date=' but he can't be much worse then the two clowns before him . [/quote'] :rollin:rollin:rollin Quote of the year!! :lol I guess you've all seen the players aren't happy at all with the surface. Basically frozen solid. Not sure how it will relate to the game tho tbh. :\

[rleague_punter]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Joe Webb is more of a ball runner than passer

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks it won't be that cold to be honest. It's supposed by 21 F, but they said feel like 11 F with the windchill. It was 15F with a windchill of 2F here last week and I felt fine :loon To be fair rleague the Bears have faced some pretty bad rushing teams this year. I'm looking at there schedule and I don't see a single team that concentrates on the run. Frazier has a different mindset then Childress when it comes to running. Also because of Webb have a career total of 8 yards in his career they will run the ball more and be more conservative. Last time they played the Bears (the Vikings) they only rushed 21 times. Won't be surprised to see that get to 40 times tonight. I think youll see Geirhart be the X factor as well

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

:rollin:rollin:rollin Quote of the year!! :lol I guess you've all seen the players aren't happy at all with the surface. Basically frozen solid. Not sure how it will relate to the game tho tbh. :\

;) There all bitches. 30 years ago it wouldn't have even been an issue and those guys were only getting paid like 30K a year to play and none of them died on the field. Now there getting paid 800 K to play a game and there afraid to get hit. Lol at the ones complaining.

[allthethings]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks

Oakland -13.5 @ 2.90 :D They took their time to overwhelm the Broncos but eventually got the cover Green Bay +7.5 @ 3.05 :D Once again they lose by 4 points or less, but they should have won this. Two plays either side of half time changed this game. Packers lead 17-7 and that kick return by the OL for nearly a TD, and then that INT that Wynn throws when nobody was there, quickly saw them go down 21-17. Though they got back to lead in the second half, it was just a matter of time before Brady controlled the ball and lead them to a victory Week 15: 4-1 (+6.43) Overall: 32-49 (-4.50) (Update at the end of the week)

Two great calls there blackcrow!

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Thanks ATT :cheers Chicago -13.5 @ 3.30 centrebet Like Chicago to bounce back here as they look to stay ahead of the GB Packers in the NFC North, after they had won 5 staright before they got smashed by a red hot NE side. Players will be hurting after that loss and look to them to bounce back against a divisional rival who is struggling for form Chicago's QB Cutler had 3 TDs in the 27-13 win over Minnesota when they met earlier in the season, and he leads an offence that passes for 193 yards and runs for 98 yards per game. RB's Forte and Taylor combined for 102 of the 130 rushing yards the Bears got against the Vikings in that game. Minnesota defends the run pretty well, but Chicago did well against them in their first match up, and the Giants ran for 213 yards last week. Looks like Favre is playing, but he is playing injured, and with the surface likely to be rock hard, expect the Bears defence to cause him more problems. Also it looks like RB Peterson is out, so their run game is in trouble, and if they cannot get any forward progress running the ball, then doubt Favre can lift them here. They face a nasty Chicago defence that has humiliated last week, and will be fired up today. Chicago allows 18 points per game (3rd lowest) on 226 passing yards and just 88 rushing yards per game (ranked 2nd). Peterson had only 51 yards in their first meeting, and with him likely to be out, then their run game is non-existent. While Chicago's offence is not the best, at this point in point in time, they look better than a banged up Favre and a missing Peterson. On defence, Chicago's run defence is very good, as is Minnesota's, but Chicago did manage to exploit this last time out. Also like their defence to blitz Favre quite a bit, and would not be surprised to see some turnovers here. Chicago has much more than Minnesota to play for, and like them to win this well Week 15: 4-1 (+6.43) Overall: 32-49 (-4.50) (Update at the end of the week)

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week Fifteen Picks Chicago -13.5 @ 3.30 :D If only all weeks could be like this week :ok Week 15: 5-1 (+8.63) Overall: 37-50 (+4.13)