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Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime

themaverick

By themaverick
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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themaverick

themaverick

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LAYING 'ANY OTHER' for the half-time score. Has anyone any experience in laying what the score will be by halftime in Football ? What I am interested in is the 'ANY OTHER' option which in simple terms means a team in the match will score 3 goals and over by half time. However this doesn't happen very often at all which is why i'm thinking of some selective laying! 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 2-1 1-2 2-2 any other If you lay a bet on 'any other' then so long as neither team scores more than 2 goals by half time you are a winner. Looking on www.flashscores.co.uk - and past weeks this doesn't happen much in the top leagues? The premier league and championship are showing well. And for some strange reason the Japanses league!! Only problem is odd's can be high at anywhere between 20.0 and 40.0. So obviously the risk is pretty big. Bolton vs Villa would be around 32.0. If you look at previous weeks in the premiership, championship you will be suprised how many times a team gets more than 3 goals in the first half. Premier League Stats - 2010/2011 - a win means niether team scored more than 2 goals by half-time and a loss means someone put 3 goals in before half time. Arsenal 16 games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Blackpool 3-0 HT

Aston Villa 16 Games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Newcastle 3-0 HT

Birmingham 16 Games - 16 wins

Blackburn 16 Games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Man Utd - 3-0 HT

Blackpool 15 Games 12 wins 3 loss

vs Wigan - 3-0 HT

vs Arsenal - 3-0 HT

vs Chelsea - 4-0 HT

Bolton 16 Games - 16 wins

Chelsea 16 Games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Blackpool - 4-0 HT

Everton 16 Games - 16 wins

Fulham 16 Games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Manchester City - 3-0 HT

Liverpool 16 Games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs West Ham - 3-0HT

Man City 16 Games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Fulham - 3-0 HT

Man Utd 15 Games - 14 wins 1loss

vs Blackburn - 3-0 HT

Newcastle 16 games - 14 wins 2 loss

vs Sunderland - 3-0 HT

vs Aston Villa - 3-0 HT

Stoke 16 Games - 16 Wins

Sunderland 16 Games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Newcastle - 3-0 HT

Tottenham 16 Games - 16 wins

West Brom 16 Games - 16 Wins

West Ham 16 Games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Liverpool - 3-0 HT

Wigan 16 games - 15 wins 1 loss

vs Blackpool - 3-0 HT

Wolves 16 Games - 16 Wins

Total Games = 318

Games by H/T where neither team scored more than 2 goals = 310

Games by H/T where either team scored more than 2 goals = 8

As I have mentioned unless one of the teams is a huge favourite then the odds will be between 32.0 to 40.0.

A Man Utd vs Blackpool you may get 18.0 etc

Based on the figures above and the lay odds – is there money to be had here if you are careful?

Or is it just not worth the risk?

Has anyone looked into this at all or got any interesting thoughts and theories>? Thanks The Mav

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themaverick

themaverick

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime Championship 4.12.2010 - Halftime scores in brackets.

12:45 FinishedIpswich1 - 3Swansea(0 - 0)
15:00 FinishedCardiff1 - 1Preston(0 - 1)
15:00 FinishedCoventry1 - 0Middlesbrough(0 - 0)
15:00 FinishedDerby1 - 2Norwich(1 - 2)
15:00 PostponedDoncaster-Barnsley
15:00 PostponedHull-QPR
15:00 FinishedLeeds2 - 1Crystal Palace(0 - 1)
15:00 PostponedNottingham-Bristol City
15:00 PostponedPortsmouth-Burnley
15:00 PostponedSheffield Utd-Reading
15:00 FinishedWatford3 - 2Leicester(2 - 0)
17:20 FinishedMillwall3 - 0Scunthorpe(1 - 0)
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themaverick

themaverick

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime Japan J-League 4.12.2010 - halftime score in brackets

06:30 FinishedC-Osaka6 - 2Iwata(2 - 0)
06:30 Finished Kyoto2 - 0Tokyo(1 - 0)
06:30 FinishedNagoya2 - 1Hiroshima(2 - 1)
06:30 FinishedNiigata3 - 1Shonan(2 - 0)
06:30 FinishedSendai1 - 1Kawasaki F.(0 - 1)
06:30 FinishedShimizu0 - 3G-Osaka(0 - 2)
06:30 FinishedUrawa0 - 4Kobe(0 - 1)
06:30 FinishedYamagata1 - 1Kashima(1 - 0)
06:30 FinishedYokohama M.0 - 2Omiya(0 - 1)
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themaverick

themaverick

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime Japan J-League 27.11.2010 - halftime score in brackets

27.11. 08:30 FinishedHiroshima1 - 0Sendai(0 - 0)
27.11. 08:30 FinishedOmiya2 - 2Niigata(1 - 2)
27.11. 08:30 FinishedTokyo1 - 1Yamagata(0 - 0)
27.11. 05:00 FinishedG-Osaka0 - 2Yokohama M.(0 - 2)
27.11. 05:00 FinishedIwata1 - 2Nagoya(0 - 2)
27.11. 05:00 FinishedKawasaki F.1 - 1Urawa(1 - 0)
27.11. 05:00 Finished Kobe1 - 0Shimizu(0 - 0)
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themaverick

themaverick

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime Championship 27.11.2010 - Halftime scores in brackets.

27.11. 17:20 FinishedBurnley2 - 1Derby(0 - 1)
27.11. 15:00 FinishedBarnsley0 - 0Watford(0 - 0)
27.11. 15:00 FinishedBristol City3 - 0Sheffield Utd (2 - 0)
27.11. 15:00 FinishedCrystal Palace1 - 0Doncaster(1 - 0)
27.11. 15:00 FinishedMiddlesbrough2 - 2Hull(1 - 2)
27.11. 15:00 FinishedPreston0 - 0Millwall(0 - 0)
27.11. 15:00 FinishedQPR2 - 1Cardiff(1 - 1)
27.11. 15:00 FinishedReading0 - 0Leeds(0 - 0)
27.11. 15:00 FinishedScunthorpe0 - 2Coventry(0 - 1)
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themaverick

themaverick

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime Just got the stats for the Championship 2010/2011 Barnsley 19 Games - 19 Wins

Bristol City 19 Games - 19 Wins

Burnley 19 Games - 19 Wins

Cardiff 20 Games - 18 Wins 2 Loss

vs Scunthorpe 3-1

vs Norwich 3-1

Coventry 20 Games - 20 Wins

Crystal P 20 Games - 18 Wins 2 Loss

vs Leics 3-0

vs Preston 3-1

Derby 20 Games - 20 Wins

Doncaster - 19 Games - 19 Wins

Hull - 19 Games - 19 Wins

Ipswich 20 Games - 20 Wins

Leeds 20 Games - 19 Wins 1 Loss

vs Preston 4-2

Leicester 20 Games - 19 wins 1 Loss

vs Crystal Palace 3-0

Middles 20 Games 19 won 1 Loss

vs Watford 3-0

Millwall 20 Games 19 won 1 loss

vs Watford 3-0

Norwich 20 Games 18 Won 2 loss

vs Cardiff 3-1

vs Reading 3-1

Notts Forest 19 Games - 19 Won

Portsmouth 19 Games - 19 Won

Preston 20 Games - 17 Won 3 Loss

vs Swansea 3-0

vs Leeds 4-2

vs Crystal Pal - 3-1

QPR 19 Games - 18 Wins 1 Loss

vs Sheff utd 3-0

Reading 19 Games - 18 Wins 1 Loss

vs Norwich 3-1

Scunthorpe - 20 Games - 19 Wins 1 Loss

vs Cardiff

Sheff Utd - 19 Games - 18 Wins 1 Loss

vs QPR 3:0

Swansea 20 Games - 19 Wins 1 Loss

vs Preston 3-0

Watford 20 games - 18 Wins 2 Loss

vs Millwall 3-0

vs Middlesbrough 3-0

Total Games = 470

Games by H/T where neither team scored more than 2 goals = 460 Games by H/T where either team scored more than 2 goals = 10

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KThom

KThom

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime Looking at your stats quickly – I’m assuming on the Premiership the split was 16 losses and 302 wins (totalling 318)? * This gives a total (combining the championship) of 36 “Losses” from 788 games. A rate of 4.5% (or “true odds” of 21.89). * At a glance it seems value would be to back – rather than lay – but this of course does not take into account dynamics of the game – nor the teams involved or individual prices on offer. * In a nutshell I’d say the answer to your original question (“is it worth the risk” would be a resounding no. * Would you be happy to have £300 on the line to win a tenner on every game? Even the games in which you “win” you may see 2 early goals and a very nervy remaining 30 minutes of the half.

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themaverick

themaverick

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime Hi KThom thanks for your reply - I actually did the stats wrong as I counted the losses twice and so the figures have dropped from 16 to 8 in the premier league and 20 to 10 in the Championship. Total Games = 318

Games by H/T where neither team scored more than 2 goals = 310 Games by H/T where either team scored more than 2 goals = 8

Championship 2010/2011

Total Games = 470

Games by H/T where neither team scored more than 2 goals = 460 Games by H/T where either team scored more than 2 goals = 10

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KThom

KThom

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime I have the stats for the past 6 seasons and using your criteria it still doesn’t add up. * Firstly I’ll start using the example you give for the Premiership THIS season. * If you have 310 games, at avg price of 32, and laying £25 a time – that equates too £248,000. You win on 302 of those games, giving a return of £7,172.50 (Including 5% commission) You lose on 8 of those games, giving a loss of £6,200 * This gives an overall profit of £972.50 – but it only equates to around 0.40% yield as you are “risking” £800 per game. * I’ve used the same theory (Avg odds 32, and equal lays of £25) for the past 6 seasons on Prem and Champ games. It shows a loss of nearly £38k. * There is no definitive way to back test this system as the lay odds of ANY UNQ are not available – but it doesn’t look to have any scope to me.

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Grex

Grex

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime

This gives an overall profit of £972.50 – but it only equates to around 0.40% yield as you are “risking” £800 per game.
Excellent advice, KThom..... it is the "yield" which is the measure of a system's success, not the "profit". I should be very careful, Maverick, before investing any cash on this system :unsure
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themaverick

themaverick

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime :wall Looks like I should take the advice of you guys ... man i feel like im such a novice with all this - i could do with a dummies guide to betting! ..its not that i thought i had found the holy grail but i feel as though i could make a steady £25 a week on this if i was smart with my 1 match a week choice but i guess as we all know anything can happen in football! i really wanna focus my energies into a betting system and this was the only one i found that I felt I could turn into steady gains but even i'm aware one loss would see me almost wiped out! :gimme

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themaverick

themaverick

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime Paper Trail Time - Table created ! Starting bank of 2k and £25 Lays ( this is what I would have if I get the guts to do this ) Champions League:08.12.2010 Marseille vs Chelsea 'Any Other' H/T Score 32.0 :pukelay £25 Any team scores more than 2 goals by halftime and this one is a big fat non-starter p.s I have created a table in Excel ready if i get past this one - how do I copy and paste it into my thread?

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Grex

Grex

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime

p.s I have created a table in Excel ready if i get past this one - how do I copy and paste it into my thread?
Enter PL with Internet Explorer (not Firefox - or you lose the formatting)..... select the table in Excel..... copy.... and paste into your PL message text. You will probably find that it doesn't look exactly the same as in Excel.... but you can play around with it to get the right presentation :ok
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Grex

Grex

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime

Interesting idea' date=' hideous table colours.... :loon[/quote'] Maverick... try using pastel colours.... pale blues, yellows etc..... and smaller fonts :ok Anyway, congratulations on your first win.
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Dumyat

Dumyat

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime I make it about a 4.7% chance you get a HT unquoted in EP over the last 20 years. Lets say you remove all the star teams - in fact let's just remove every match with an odds on fav. It follows that a big fav could rack them up early so remove all of these. This reduces the chance of an unquoted to about 3.5%. However even with that more productive range of matches it's still a negative expectation bet. Just to break even you cannot offer bigger than 27. So unless there is a more incisive picking strategy it wont work long term at a price of 32 (on EP games). In fact if that 3.5% holds up on the supposedly unpromising matches (ie unlikely to go unquoted) then grabbing offers of 40 is a nice 33% edge even after BF tax. (assuming you have the patience to stick with a bet where you have a 96.5% chance of losing)

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NO CODE

NO CODE

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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime

No Code - what did you walk away with?
Hi Maverick. 400 notes. for 1100 staked. Some would say a little crazy, but i liked the history of this fixture and felt that both sides were capable of scoring. Saying that I staked 6% of my bank , which is usually a real no no. Am on Bordeaux-Rennes tomorrow over 1.5g again. Best of luck with your system
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