Flat racing - wed 24/11

[Trotter]

Nice card at kempton today ! Kemp 5.05 = Excellent Show - win at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 I've missed out on a couple of big winners in the last week, 16/1 and 12/1, by changing my mind in the morning after the early prices had plummeted on my overnight selections So I'm going to post early !.............:tongue2 This horse has a good record over this CD, 2nd and Win from 2 runs. Both those runs were in class 4, same as today He runs off just 2 lbs higher than his last win and is entitled to be an improving horse with just 15 career runs behind him My particular angle for today is 'second run back from a break' - he didn't exactly shine on his return at Wolves, but was entitled to need a run after 8 months off His regular jockey takes over today and the stable is showing improved form with a couple of winners last week after being on the cold list for a while. He's been tipped up by both the Post and the Life, so I'm pretty sure his odds will have tumbled by tomorrow morning ! ps 'he' is a 'she'............:ok

[Trotter]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 Kemp 7.05 - Blackmore - win at 3/1 BOG with bet365 Lightly raced type with just 5 career runs, he's won both times since he stepped up to todays 2 mile trip, once here and once at ling. Has gone up 3 lbs for the last win and is up in class today. That's normally a negative for me, but as he still showed signs of inexperience at Ling, I'm happy to think he's got plenty of improvement in him The horse he beat into 2nd last time sluiced up at southwell yesterday The horse who finished 2nd the time before is second fave for todays race, but he's an exposed type and i can't see him beating the selection even with a bit of a weight pull Stable is in cracking form with 3 winners from last 4 runners.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 Faithful Ruler - Lingfield 2:40 Is now 2 pounds lower than its best success, won off a mark of 81 and runs off 79 tomorrow so is very well handicapped.. Is a distance winner over this 1 mile trip.. Interestingly the last 2 horses that Fahey has ran at Lingfield, they have both won... 0.5 Points e/w @ 11/2 (VC) BOG Love You Louis - Kempton 5:05 C+D winner twice, distance winner 4 times and course winner twice, so likes it around here. Won its last race well over C+D. Is up 6 pounds and now runs off a mark of 73 but that should be no problem as it has won off marks of 74 and 75 before. 1 Point win @ 3/1 (Bet365) BOG Blackmore - Kempton 7:05 Is a C+D winner once, distance winner over this trip of 2 miles twice and a course winner once. Beat Miniyamba last time out who i think came out and won yesterday??? Only up another 3 pounds but is still very unexposed and i fancy Cathy to win again, she is 100% (2/2) on the horse. 1 Point win @ 3/1 (Bet365) BOG

[Trotter]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11

Love You Louis - Kempton 5:05 C+D winner twice, distance winner 4 times and course winner twice, so likes it around here. Won its last race well over C+D. Is up 6 pounds and now runs off a mark of 73 but that should be no problem as it has won off marks of 74 and 75 before. 1 Point win @ 3/1 (Bet365) BOG

I had a close look at that one, Aidy, as it's currently fave in the race where my BBotD runs. I like it as well......I've got it clear top rated on my speed figs ! I was just worried about how the race might be run. Last time it crossed over from a wide draw and made all. Drawn wide again today but has another front runner in the rail stall Just figured they might cut each others throats up front ! Anyway, good luck with that one - we'll see how it pans out !

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11

I had a close look at that one, Aidy, as it's currently fave in the race where my BBotD runs. I like it as well......I've got it clear top rated on my speed figs ! I was just worried about how the race might be run. Last time it crossed over from a wide draw and made all. Drawn wide again today but has another front runner in the rail stall Just figured they might cut each others throats up front ! Anyway, good luck with that one - we'll see how it pans out !

Yes Trotter, i was worried about that aswell for the exact same reason.. :lol Im actually hoping that Freddie's Girl blasts out in front and for Eddie Ahern to sit behind him in 2nd and go for it over a furlong out.. If the 2 of them go hell for leather at the beginning, it will set it up nicely for a fast finisher, possibly Excellent Show.. Very interesting race.. I see you fancy Blackmore aswell, i think it has an outstanding chance of the 3-timer.. :hope

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 2:40 Lingfield Santefisio 0.5pts EW - 15/2 (VC) Humungous 0.25pts EW - 25/1 (Bet365) Think these are two generous prices. Santefisio is only a four year old and has run well off this mark in the past when beaten a length back in June when favourite for a class four handicap. Has had two runs at Lingfield with a win first time up back in September 2009, and a staying on seventh last month over seven furlongs, so the step-up to the mile looks ideal (was only beaten 3 lengths that day). Makin's horses aren't running badly and Jimmy Fortune gets the ride, has won on the horse before. Humungous is interesting. Came back from a long lay-off lto so was entitled to need the run, but it was unusually on soft going, which the horse has only ever encountered 3 times in his 33 race career (twice good/soft, and only once soft), and never acted on. Has shot down in ratings and could potentially if returning to any sort of form run really well off 80, the price more than makes up for the doubt.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 5:05 Kempton Vhujon 2pt win - 6/1 (VC) Cathy Gannon picks up the ride on Vhujon here and I think off 76 he could be interesting in this small field. His last few wins have been in fields of about this size and he'll have a leader to aim at in Love You Louis. He is a consistent performer and has won twice at this track, albeit it over 6f. Looks overpriced at 6/1.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 Sport Horse Racing Event 12.30 LINGFIELD Selection RESPLENDENT ALPHA (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 24/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 0.00 Reasoning Went off joint fav on Saturday when disappointing after an encouraging run before that but thats the type of horse it is. Hopefully on a going day today is a double CD winner but doesn't win that many but low mark and should be a double digit price to boot. Sport Horse Racing Event 2.40 LINGFIELD Selection HUMUNGOUS (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 24/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 26.00 Reasoning Speculative punt on one time decent animal. Would have needed the run lto after long lay off. Drops 4lb to mark of just 80. Worth a small punt at a big price in the hope some ability is retained.

[Spooner]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 Lingfield 12:00 - Bollywood Style @ 5/2 Paddy Power Trainer had the 2nd in the race last year and I think he'll go one better with Bollywood Style, went very close lto over the 6f here and would of won with the extra trip so step upto 7f looks handy. Its a dire race and always the worry that one pops out from nowhere but this looks the clear pick here. Lingfield 12:30 - Paphos @ 2/1 Paddy Power A winner of 3 of his last four races and I still think there could be more to come. All those victories have came over the 7f here but the step back to 6f shouldn't be a concern, he scored very easily again lto and I think he'll go in again. Kempton 17:05 - Love You Louis @ 3/1 Paddy Power Won nicely over the 5f trip here lto making it his second C&D victory, the previous back in 2009 when scoring in a 5f handicap off a mark of 75 in stall 1, races in stall 1 today off 73. It is a tough little race to solve but feel he could make it a double. Kempton 19:05 - Blackmore @ 11/4 Stan James This race is alot tougher than the last two he has faced but he has been impressive winning on last starts over this 2m trip, the last victory came over the C&D when staying on well to take the race, I feel he'll step up and make a good race of it again. Catherine Gannon has ridden both times and she looks to complete the treble on him today.

[Spooner]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 One each-way bet for me today. Lingfield 13:00 - Timeteam @ 18/1 Stan James E-W Timeteam is more than capable of producing a run at this level, he is a previous course winner and won over the 7f distance in September. Gary Moore has a decent record on the AW track here and I think this one has a lively outside chance.

[chris34]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 12.30 Lingfield Good looking handicap for the time of year and several have chances. Paphos is sure to go well have run out a clear cut winner in an apprentice race over 7f over C and prior to that a winner of 2 other 7f handicaps over C, obvious concern dropping back in trip and up 6lb in a stronger looking race and at the prices looks off putting. Mango Music has been running consistently of late including over CD last time out when 4th behind Anne of Kiev and could improve on that effort on a much lower AW mark than turf but again the price isnt very attractive. For me Rifflesione looks a massive race again very consistent and much better on AW than turf with 10 placed efforts and 2 wins from 20 starts and has been knocking on the door recently, ran well last time out considering draw and had to come wide and was a little keen, drawn slightly better today and should be able to tuck in better this time and should get the pace to come late and still remains on last winning mark! 0.5pt e/w Rifflesione 15/2 bet365 2.40 Lingfield A wide open handicap with the top 5 currently priced at around the same price! Dens gift is worth a small saver in this sort of race, not drawn best for a front runner but if he can get over he could be dangerous if left alone up front, tends to be fairly consistent on the AW and slipping back down the weights currently to only be 1lb above last winning mark. My main bet for the race will be Duster who has proved a decent sort on turf at a reasonable level and was unlucky not to get his head back in front last time out at newmarket on soft ground going down by a head, up 4lb for that effort but still reasonably lightly race and acts on polytrack and drawn well in stall 2. 0.25pt win Dens Gift 6/1 bet365 0.75pt win Duster 6/1 pp 3.15 Lingfield Atacama Sunrise bounced back to form of a 3lb lower mark than when he won last time, was winning going away and therefore could still have more for a jockey that is in the form of her life and well worth her 7lb claim as she is a very tidy apprentice who could be going places! Atacama is only up 2lb and has won off higher marks before. 0.5pt win Atacama Sunrise 11/2 hills

[Spooner]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11

Kempton 19:05 - Blackmore @ 11/4 Stan James This race is alot tougher than the last two he has faced but he has been impressive winning on last starts over this 2m trip, the last victory came over the C&D when staying on well to take the race, I feel he'll step up and make a good race of it again. Catherine Gannon has ridden both times and she looks to complete the treble on him today.

Adding another one in this race, surprised there is a big drop in price on this runner. Kempton 19:05 - Atlantic Tiger LAY @ 3.50 Betfair Short enough currently and I think he'll go off a higher price closer to the off. Drop in class tonight but was looking well held on recent starts over this 2m trip. Last two runs have seen him drop to a mark of 84 but still should find it tough and looks a lay at the price.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 CLUB OCEANIC 2.05 Lingfield. Place Lay. Been backed off the boards this morning, and so somebody obviously knows something, or they think they do. Anyhow, didn't show much at all on debut and if going by that, then he should be around the 5/6/1 mark in my opinion. 1/4 to finish in the first 3 today and with plenty of unknown quantities lining up, I just feel the place lay is the value call here, irrespective of the end result.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 15:45 Lingfield I think at the prices it is definitely worth taking a chance on King Of Connacht whos only had just the four runs in 2010 so far. Came off the back of a lengthy lay off (since February) LTO so arguably needed the run that day and I feel he will strip a lot fitter for todays run. Won three times in 2009 in handicap company, once at Brighton on turf off a mark of 54 and twice at Wolverhampton over 9.5 furlongs off marks of 54 and 55. Is 3lbs higher today but Kieron Fox, who is a very capable jockey, takes off 3lbs which effectively has him back down to his last winning mark. The two that currently lead the market in Bubbly Braveheart and Buona Sarah are the obvious dangers but overall this race isn't the strongest so I think my selection has a great chance to make the placings at the very least. 0.5pts E/W King Of Connacht @ 25/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 6.35 KEMPTON WELSH INLET 66-1 0.25pt ew Id always keep an eye out for horses that connections run a horse at a distance that is unusual for it..now new conncetions throw welsh inlet in again at 7f..Now welsh inlet is a sprint horse,and does have flat line speed for sure..in august in finished 5 lengths off Millyluvstobouggie in a class 5 sprint on its only run at lingfield.on that basis it was a good run as of 23 runs from that race,10 went on to win and 8 placed which isnt bad..now conncetions must feel this speedster can stay the trip,and although its a long shot at 66-1 im willing to find out..

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 7.35 KEMPTON HAZARD COUNTY 11-1 0.5pt ew Hazard county can usually hold its own at this level,which it showed over C&D in september winning off a mark of 78 with todays jockey up..Put in some ok runs since that on polytrack at kempton over 7f,never finishing more than 3 lengths off the winners from not so good draws..tonight it is drawn very well in stall 8 and is very consistant on the clock,and should go very close,claimer takes off handy 7 lbs.

[chris34]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 7.35 Kempton Chris's Ridge looks a massive price even after Hugh Taylor got hold of him! Ran a solid race last 2 times especially penultimate start when only going down by a neck to a 80 rated horse and well beat a 67 rated horse that was over 7f stepped upto a mile next time out but faded rapidly in the final furlong after looking like the winner along way out, that form taken a few boosts since and is not over rated at 75 in my opinion and is the least exposed in this lineup dropping back to an ideal 7f. 0.5pt e/w Chris's Ridge 9/1 vc

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 Santefisio came there cruising but ran straight into a wall of horses, didn't get through till late on and took third. One to keep an eye on nto. 7:05 Kempton Atlantic Tiger 2pt win - 5/2 (Bet365) This horse has won twice in his career, both times on the all weather and on a mark of 84 I think he could be a few lbs well in here. Got within 2 and a half lengths of Motrice on good ground at York and that horse is now rated 108. Bearing in mind the polytrack seems to suit the horse better it was a good run. Failed to build on that but is possibly unsuited by cut in the ground so I'm willing to forgive those two runs, and the terrible display over 12f in August was strange; the horse never travelled from the off. Fanning gets back on board here and has ridden the horse to win in the past. Dropped to the mark of 84 here, I wouldn't be surprised to see the horse win quite comfortably.

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11

Santefisio came there cruising but ran straight into a wall of horses, didn't get through till late on and took third. One to keep an eye on nto.

I was on him, would have won if getting a clear run :( Although glad he managed to grab onto third, will be a bit short next time probably.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 And then Vhujon is unable to get a clear run and finishes second. 5f was probably a bit sharp for him, but the commentators (haven't seen the race) think he'd have won. :(

[RussP]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 7.35 Kempton This looks like a really nice race to finish the evening and I'm keen on one near the head of the weights. Duplicity has just been purchased out of Hannon's yard and looks to have everything in his favour tonight. Has been campaigned at sprint distances but recently upped to a mile. Now races in between at 7f and that could be perfect. Looked a nice 2yo, initially racing off 100 but is off just 80 today. Since being upped in trip, has finished a head 2nd at Bath off this mark before a close up 4th here when the lack of any pace didn't really help. Drawn ok in 6, has a cracking jockey up and this grade should be well within its grasp. Plenty of pace in the race and I fancy this one can sit midfield and be well positioned when push comes to shove. Great chance at a huge price. Duplicity, EW 14/1 Paddy Power

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 I fancy that one as well Russ but first.... Event 7.05 KEMPTON Selection PHEONIX FLIGHT (Each-way) Strength 2/10 Date 24/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 8.00 Reasoning Dead eight go to post and i don;t fancty the two market leaders here so ill go with the top weight who is a cd winner and will appreciate the drop back in trip. Solid e/w chance imo

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 Sport Horse Racing Event 7.35 KEMPTON Selection DUPLICITY (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 24/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 15.00 Reasoning I like trainer/jockey combo here and interesting they have just acquired this horse who ran a pleasing fourth lto and give the impression a win wasn't to far away steps back in trip tonight that should be ok. Should go well but one to watch what ever happens tonight imo.

[RussP]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11

7.35 Kempton This looks like a really nice race to finish the evening and I'm keen on one near the head of the weights. Duplicity has just been purchased out of Hannon's yard and looks to have everything in his favour tonight. Has been campaigned at sprint distances but recently upped to a mile. Now races in between at 7f and that could be perfect. Looked a nice 2yo, initially racing off 100 but is off just 80 today. Since being upped in trip, has finished a head 2nd at Bath off this mark before a close up 4th here when the lack of any pace didn't really help. Drawn ok in 6, has a cracking jockey up and this grade should be well within its grasp. Plenty of pace in the race and I fancy this one can sit midfield and be well positioned when push comes to shove. Great chance at a huge price. Duplicity, EW 14/1 Paddy Power

Sport Horse Racing Event 7.35 KEMPTON Selection DUPLICITY (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 24/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 15.00 Reasoning I like trainer/jockey combo here and interesting they have just acquired this horse who ran a pleasing fourth lto and give the impression a win wasn't to far away steps back in trip tonight that should be ok. Should go well but one to watch what ever happens tonight imo.

3rd:ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11

3rd:ok

Was wrongly called Russ it wasn't in the hunt:sad

[RussP]

Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11

Was wrongly called Russ it wasn't in the hunt:sad

Didn't see the race but thought it was odd:sad