Aykay1 Posted September 18, 2004 Author Share Posted September 18, 2004 Re: selection 400 Newb - Thyolo 5 pts ew @ 28/1 Skybet This is a speculative bet but on a horse i feel is very overpriced, probably after 2 disappointing runs, which i feel he has excuses for. He has failed over this trip on his only try but that was on gd/sft ground which may have overstretched his stamina. He encounters good ground today. He subsequently ran a great race in the Brittania Stakes at Royal Ascot, finishing 3/27, earmarking him as one to follow. He finished back in the field last time out in a Grade A Listed Race at Goodwood. Back into handicap company, in Grade B i feel he has a chance here, based on his run at Royal Ascot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 18, 2004 Author Share Posted September 18, 2004 Re: selection 505 Newb - Mr Jack Daniells 5 pts ew @ 8/1 Victor Chandler Has run consistently well over 8 furlongs this season. Has 2 recent tries at 10 furlongs which were probably too fsr for him. He appreciated the drop to a shorter distance last time out finishing 3/15 behind the in form Goodbye Mr Bond. He has won over todays distance and should go close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest martinthevet Posted September 19, 2004 Share Posted September 19, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets One more question, what sources do you use other than the RP site? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 19, 2004 Author Share Posted September 19, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets www.patternform.co.uk is an excellent site if you are want to consider statistics whilst studying form for a race. other than that the aforementioned racing post site is excellent also. You will notice the PL currently has a partnership with the EBA message board. There are some excellent posters on there (and some crap ones mind!) but i use that site for pointers aswell so it is worth a visit. The RFO is a good value read for £1.20 and has helped me in the past. Just look around basically mate - theres plenty of good info out there! Hope this helps :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 19, 2004 Author Share Posted September 19, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets A couple of losers recently which have hit the profits a little bit. Thyolo is worth another chance i think - the going was changed to good/soft after race 3 which would have been against him and the draw didnt work out in his favour either Mr Jack Daniells finished last :o Maybe the change in going was a factor ehre also? Anyway, enough of the excuses.... Strike Rate: 42% (13/31) W/L: +54.17 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawksteel Posted September 20, 2004 Share Posted September 20, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Any posters on the EBA forum you would recommend paying more attention to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 21, 2004 Author Share Posted September 21, 2004 eba Anyone who posts a decent analysis is fine by me. Notably Trainbairn and EC know their stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 21, 2004 Author Share Posted September 21, 2004 bets for tuesday One i fancy today: 430 Newm - Mighty Empire - 5pts ew @ 6/1 Sp. odds Has improved with every race he has run, ran a great race last time out at Doncaster finishing 2nd from a bad draw, meaning he had to cover more ground than the majority of the field. That was a better class race than today although he has been put up 4lb's in the handicap. Conditions should be fine today so worth a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 26, 2004 Author Share Posted September 26, 2004 update Strike Rate: 41% (13/32) W/L: +44.17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 26, 2004 Author Share Posted September 26, 2004 Re: update Im off to Vegas for a week tomorrow so wont be about much. Done a bit of research (and plagarism) ;) and Ive got 5 horses worth a bet today. This could either obliterate my profits or give them a timely boost so we'll see. 235 Ascot - Look Here's Carol 5pts ew @ 14/1 SJ 335 Muss - Kirkbys Treasure 5pts ew @ 14/1 SJ 345 Ascot - Tuning Fork 5 pts ew @ 16/1 SJ 355 Hunt - Chain of Hope 5pts ew @ SP 420 Ascot - Trust Rule - 5pts ew @ 14/1 SJ Sorry for the lack of analysis but to day is very hectic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 8, 2004 Author Share Posted October 8, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Im back! A bit of a disaster with the above bets but ill update the bank after todays selection: 425 York - Prince of Gold 5 pts ew @ 9/1 sp. odds Is running well, seemed to appreciate the drop back to sprinting last time when winning the race within his middle group and has dropped to a winning handicap mark. Fallon is an eyecatching bookingt suggesting that connections are going for it today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 10, 2004 Author Share Posted October 10, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Prince of Gold finished 2nd which was nice but a shame he couldnt go one better. One that i like today is in the 540 Bath: Critical Stage 5 pts ew @ 25/1 sp.odds The favourite is strong and is going for a hatrick but carrying more weight on rain softeneed ground could be an ask too much (fingers crossed!) Critical Stage is down to an attractive mark of 61 from which he ran consistently well earlier this year. Could easily have won last time out if he had a clear run and with the trip and ground not a problem i think he is worth a bet. I was expecting about 12/1 so the 25/1 at sporting odds looks good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets The favourite is strong and is going for a hatrick but carrying more weight on rain softeneed ground could be an ask too much (fingers crossed!) hope so dude ive laided the fecker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 200 Ayr 200 Ayr Parisian Playboy 5pts ew @ 12/1 skybet Both wins have come on rain softened ground and had these conditions today. Was running well in July and early August, posting form figures of 121. Has had reasonable excuses for his 2 recent disappointing efforts (draw and lost his action) so could be worth supporting today. Apologies for not updating the bank - will do so as soon as i get a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 update Heres an update: Look Here's Carol - unplaced :( Kirkby's Treasure - 3rd @ 14/1 :) Tuning Fork - unplaced :( Chain of Hope - Pulled up :( Trust Rule - unplaced :( Prince of Gold - 2nd @ 9/1 :) Critical Stage - 4th @ 25/1 :) Parisian Playboy - unplaced :( Strike Rate: 40% (16/40) W/L: +39.17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 15, 2004 Author Share Posted October 15, 2004 ceserawitch Newmarket Ceserawitch - 5pts ew @ 20/1 stan james Ok - this race is a bit of a lottery but im having a bash anyway, taking into account some past trends from the RFO. You can pretty much rule out anything drawn low - here are the previous 10 winners draws: 36/36 36/36 32/31 18/33 17/32 19/29 6/31 15/26 18/21 28/32 I wouldnt bet anything drawn in single figures or even anything in the bottom half. Monolith is a good age for this race: 6 of the last 8 winners have been asked 6,7 or 8, despite the fact they make up less than 1/3 of the runners. All 6 of these were previous winners over hurdles. Monolith fits both these stats. Dont be put off from a double figure price as there has only been once single priced winner of this race in the last 10 years. Monolith has the right profile for this race, is an out and out stayer, ran promisingly LTO when it was crying out for a longer trip. The soft ground is no problem.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 16, 2004 Author Share Posted October 16, 2004 saturday 435 Newm - Millenary 5pts ew @ 11/2 skybet Millenary should run a big race back on his favourite track, his record at Newmarket reads 121212. Runner up in this race last year, the soft ground is ok and the horse is in good form. 115 Yarmouth - Larad 5pts ew @ 20/1 sp.odds Having run some decent races in a higher grade, Larad will appreciate the drop to class H here. His record in this grade reads 35131. This is a return to the trip over which he has done all his winning aswell to 20/1 is a big price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 18, 2004 Author Share Posted October 18, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Monolith - unplaced Millenary - 1st Larad - unplaced Strike Rate: 40% (17/43) W/L: +53.55pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 21, 2004 Author Share Posted October 21, 2004 400 Haydock 400 Hayd - Iverain 5pts ew @ 16/1 Bet Direct Big thanks to the brilliant Trainbairn from EBA for this one. Read his research on the horse and decided to have a bet. Its a 6 horse race so we're looking for a top 2 finish. See his post below. Hope he doesnt mind me cutting and pasting :o :o :o -------------------------------------------------- I am seriously interested in the chances of INVERAIN who looks hugely overpriced. Record when racing with a break of 43 days(6 weeks) or more:0811118(4-7) Record when racing within 42 days or less:04P2343424176R(1-13) Clearly far better when racing after a long break which he does today. Record by Class Barrier Class A and B races only:P2428(0-5) Record in France:0084(0-4) Class C or lower :1113414176R(5-11) Combine runs in Class C or lower when racing after a break of 6 weeks or more,and his record reads:1111(4-4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Strike Rate: 39% (17/44) W/L: +43.55pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets 225 Chepstow - Joly Bey 5pts ew @16/1 bluesq Looked a useful chasing prospect last year and had an impressive strike rate over hurdles, aswell as looking progressive over fences. Was unlucky lto, primed to go close when falling 4 out. His rating over hurdles is still below his chasing rating and i think he is overpriced as i was expecting single figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets 310 Newm Putra Pekan - 5pts ew @ 12/1 totesport Was found out in higher grades so a drop to listed company will suit today. Has a good record on soft ground and with 1m his ideal trip should have an each way chance at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets last minute post for this but the trainer of Joly bey has just stated that he is not fit and this is a prep race for the hennessy. so dont bet it i reckon. Unfortunaltely my moneys down already :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 30, 2004 Share Posted October 30, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Do you have a betfair account mate? if not i recommend you getting on these kind of problems you could have laid it back and would have lot you nothing. Check it out if you havent used it. Let us know if you need help with it. Can be confusing first time you use it :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 31, 2004 Author Share Posted October 31, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Didnt think of tht Mr jt - it was right before the off when the trainer spoke so it might have been too late anyway but ill definitely bear it in mind :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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