Aykay1 Posted July 19, 2004 Share Posted July 19, 2004 Im going to start keeping a running record of these from today..... 245 Ayr - Doctor Hilary - 10 pts each way @ SP Actually saw the below stats on another message board which is enough to persuade me to have a bet: 6/14 Michael Bell trained Juveniles at Ayr have won - 42.85% Fallon riding Michael Bell trained Juveniles - 6/18 winners - 50% Judging by the above, they are going for it today and as long as all 8 runners start the race we get first 3 places each way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 20, 2004 Author Share Posted July 20, 2004 update A small loss today with Doctor Hillary finishing 2nd @ 7/2. Strike Rate: 0% (0/1) W/L: -1.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 23, 2004 Author Share Posted July 23, 2004 AK's Horse Racing Bets Its just been pointed out to me that if i am doing this on a points scale of 1-10, then the last bet should have been 5pts each way, not 10 pts each way. i know this looks as though i am doctoring the figures and im sorry if that appears the case but id rather get the staking correct whilst the thread is still young. Hope this is ok :ok The figures at the moment stand at: Strike Rate 0% (0/1) W/L: -0.63pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 23, 2004 Author Share Posted July 23, 2004 Re: AK's Horse Racing Bets 245 Ascot - Mana D'Argent - 5 pts each way His recent form isnt great but he is a much better horse at Ascot with ALL his career wins coming at this track. Form at Ascot: 14226311161300 (17%) Form elsewhere: 6332745630332346359892500452006 4287340770450696043050 (0%) Much improved figures im sure you'll agree, in placing terms aswell as winning terms. This is also his time of year with all but one of his wins coming in July or August. He has been placed in 14/24 races during this period of the year with a strike rate of 17% Form in July/August: 630313234225207134101430 (17%) Form in other months: 33274566359849046520064283771045 06966030500 (2%) The trip of 2 miles today is also ideal: 2 miles: 911140601300 (33%) Other trips: 6274533132346359842252004652006428373407 70569643500 (2%) If we combine some of the above factors for todays race, we are given some revealing stats: 2 miles at Ascot: 111130 (67%) 2 miles July/August: 11130 (60%) July/August at Ascot: 1211130 (50%) 2 miles July/August at Ascot: 11130 (60%) The slight worry is the horses lack of recent form but the drop down to his last winning handicap mark of 84 and drop into Class D from Class B has convinced me to make it an each way bet. Everything is in its favour today so there should be no reason for it not to go close. Forecast 8/1 in the Racing Post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 24, 2004 Share Posted July 24, 2004 A deserved bump as this horse came in nicely and I was on it thanx to Aykay :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 24, 2004 Author Share Posted July 24, 2004 result A good winner yesterday with Mana D'argent winning at 11/2 :) Update: Strike Rate: 50% (1/2) W/L: +33.75 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 24, 2004 Author Share Posted July 24, 2004 Re: result 345 Ascot - El Coto @ 18/1 Sporting Odds: 5pts ew The general consensus is that El Coto is too high in the weights, rated 100 nowadays. However, since winning at Newbury off 94, he put in a good account of himself in a Grade A Stakes race against opponenets rated 110ish, finish a good 5/17 off a 102, a 2lb higher mark than today and demolished the disadvantaged stands side group last time out off todays mark In my opinion he looks capable of winning soon and its worth taking a chance on the horse whilst he remains in good form. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 25, 2004 Author Share Posted July 25, 2004 Re: result A poor run from El Coto today, finishing unplaced: Strike Rate: 33% (1/3) W/L: +23.75pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2004 Author Share Posted July 28, 2004 Re: result Please note - only bet the following at the prices ive noted, otherwise discard them: 535 Goodwood - Salviati each way @ 5/1 or greater This is Salviati's last chance before i cross him off my horses to follow list. He has cost me a few times this season but looked to be finally running into form last time out - he does tend to peak at the end of july according to his previous form figures. Ideal conditions today, plum draw, the only excuse for a poor show today would be bad luck in running. Only bet this if its priced 5/1 or greater. 240 Goodwood - Shamardal - win @ evens or greater This horse has been touted as a future champion and was backed accordingly before hacking up by 8 lengths on his debut. That means the cat is out the bag though and it seems like the whole world is on this horse tomorrow. I am willing to take anything above evens. this is a no bet if it is odds on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 28, 2004 Author Share Posted July 28, 2004 stakes sorry forgot the stakes - Salviati is 5pts each way Shamardal is 10 pts win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 29, 2004 Author Share Posted July 29, 2004 AK's Horse Racing Bets Shamardal won @ 8/13 so no bet Salviati was frustratingly 5th @ 11/2 Strike Rate: 25% (1/4) W/L: +13.75pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 29, 2004 Author Share Posted July 29, 2004 315 goodwood 315 goodwood - darasim @ 2/1, VC, Sp. odds 10 pts win Snap up some of the 2/1 about Darasim. He has won twice at this meeting before, trainer has an excellent record in this and looks a class above these. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 30, 2004 Author Share Posted July 30, 2004 . A good winner today - was backed into 11/8 so well pleased with the 2/1. Strike Rate: 40% (2/5) W/L: +33.75 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 7, 2004 Author Share Posted August 7, 2004 Re: . 2 Bets today - both 5 points each way 140 Ascot - Fannys fancy @ 6/1 Sporting odds After an impressive last season (finishing close to Frizzante on final start) Fannys Fancy has had little luck with its racing this season. Bad draws and unsuitable ground are valid excuses whilst it has been argued that the pace was too slow for it last time out. Is capable of winning this if retaining last years form and 6/1 is an each way price. 155 Haydock - Matty Tun @ 20/1 Sporting odds A speculative bet on this in which is a very competitive handicap. He ran an excellent race last time out behind some useful horses who have since gone on to run well or win in topclass races. Has stayedf fairly steady in the weights and is capable of taking part in the closing stages here. 20/1 looks big as i reckon half that price would be closer to reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 7, 2004 Author Share Posted August 7, 2004 Re: . 215 Newmarket - Ela paparouna @ 11/2 Stan James - 5 pts each way Henry Candys horses are sparking into life which is a positive for Ela Paparouna today. Although still a maiden i cant help thinking he is unlucky to be so. Finishing runner up LTO, the race has produced 4 subsequent winners. The rating of 72 looks fair in another competitive race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 8, 2004 Author Share Posted August 8, 2004 Re: . Strike Rate: 43% (3/7) W/L: +15.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 11, 2004 Author Share Posted August 11, 2004 Re: . 715 Sandown - Take a Bow - 5 pts each way Despite having top weight, still looks to be under rated by the handicapper, especially after an impressive run LTO behind the high class Peter Paul Rubens. That was a better clas race and he met trouble in running from an unfavourable draw. He had won his previous 2 races and theres no excuss for not being in the frame tomorrow. Ill post a price tomorrow when i can find one, otherwise ill settle the bet at SP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 12, 2004 Author Share Posted August 12, 2004 . A nice 3/1 winner yesterday :) Strike Rate: 50% (4/8) W/L: +34.38 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 12, 2004 Author Share Posted August 12, 2004 Tilla 450 Salisbury - Tilla 5pts each way H Morrisson had high hopes for Tilla this season but hasnt really enjoyed the rub of the green in 3 of 4 races this season. Looks to have a major chance today off the same mark as LTO when he finished a close runner up. Down in grade to Class E aswell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 13, 2004 Author Share Posted August 13, 2004 result Beaten a short head into 2nd @ 5/2 :( Strike Rate: 44% (4/9) W/L: +32.50pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 13, 2004 Author Share Posted August 13, 2004 Anticipating 715 Newmarket - Anticipating 5pts ew @ 16/1 Victor Chandler 16/1 looks a big price for a horse running over its optimum trip.... on ground he has run well on before..... down into class C having run good races in higher grades... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 15, 2004 Author Share Posted August 15, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets unplaced: Strike Rate: 40% (4/10) W/L: +22.50pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 15, 2004 Author Share Posted August 15, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets 2 bets in the 430 at Bath today. It was a 19 runner handicap but surprise surprise, there a 4 non runners which brings he field down to 15 :rolleyes . Very predictable and the whole thing stinks but thats a discussion we've already had on here. Nevertheless.... 430 Bath: B A Highflyer 5 pts each way @ 6/1 Sp. Odds 430 Bath: Devon Flame 5 pts each way : 12/1 Sp. Odds B A HIGHFLYER is a much better horse over sprint distances and has fallen down the ratings recently without running particularly badly. His last 2 runs in which he showed improved form are enough for me to make him a bet today. DEVON FLAME is another horse who will be suited by todays distance, his form over 5 furlongs is excellent. He takes a steep drop in class today. His recent runs have been in Class B and C so todays Class E race will be right up his street. 12/1 looks a big price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 16, 2004 Author Share Posted August 16, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets B A Highflyer unplaced and Devon Flame finishing 2nd which leaves us break even for the day: Strike Rate: 42% (5/12) W/L: +22.50pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 18, 2004 Author Share Posted August 18, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Kempton 655 - Devise 5pts each way This horse looks like a winner waiting to happen as long as it is running over 5 furlongs on good ground or better. Its runs over 5 furlongs this season make for interesting reading. He has won over Course and Distance early this season. At Salisbury, he finished 4/16, only beaten just over 1 length having had no run at all. Would have gone very close to winning otherwise. At Goodwood he finished 7/22 from an unfavourable draw. Drawn 4, the first 12 home were drawn: 10,6,11,14,21,13,4,22,12,18,16,20 So to finish 7th from a single figure draw is very recpectable Last time out at Haydock, he was beaten only 1/2 length by Smoking Beau who has since gone on the win the Class B Wilfred Stakes at Ripon from a 5lb higher mark. Ill post a price tomorrow once i have found one and once i have checked the ground conditions are right. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 18, 2004 Author Share Posted August 18, 2004 non runner Non runner with the ground changing to good/soft overnight. One to keep an eye on next time nonetheless... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 27, 2004 Author Share Posted August 27, 2004 devise Bath 640 - Devise 5pts each way Ok this is a bet for the same reasons as given above. He has since run well behind Smoking Beau on unsuitably soft ground. Still looking primed to win he should go close. Once again, keep an eye on the ground in case it turns soft. Ill post a price tomorrow. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 27, 2004 Author Share Posted August 27, 2004 bet 115 Newmarket - Jack the Giant 10 points win @ 9/4 Sporting Odds. Very promising last time out. Should improve for that and is well fancied by the yard as being a decent horse. Trainers stable is in form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 27, 2004 Author Share Posted August 27, 2004 selections 640 Bath - Devise 5 pts each way @ 10/3 Sp.Odds See above. Although the ground is on the soft side at Bath which is against Devise, he ran very well last time out on truly soft ground. He is down to a mark of 82 from 86 which will also aid him. 435 Newmarket - Ranville 5pts ew @ 7/1 William Hill 4 out of Ranvilles 5 wins have come on soft ground so conditions will suit today. Ran well over a shorter than ideal trip last time out suggesting he is returning to fitness after missing last season through injury. 525 Newcastle - Sam the Sorceror 5pts ew @ 7/1 Sp .Odds Another who wont mind the soft conditions. Ran a cracking race last time out, demolishing his side of the field and would have won the race if he was better drawn. Runs off the same mark today. Good luck all and lets hope i finish the day with some spending money for the bank holiday :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted August 28, 2004 Author Share Posted August 28, 2004 update Very bad day yesterday taking me from a 22/5 profit to minus figures :( Strike Rate: 31% (5/16) W/L: -8.33 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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