Aykay1 Posted August 28, 2004 Author Share Posted August 28, 2004 bets saturday 28 August 225 Newmarket: Marching Song 5 pts ew @ 10/1 Sp.odds Got off the mark in a weak maiden last time out after running well behind a succession of very decent horses. He was only beaten 1 length behind David Loders Satchem who had previously beaten Captain Hurricane. CH subsequently won the July stakes at Newmarket and has run well in a valuable race (100k+) at Deauville so the form looks strong. 435 Newmarket: Nadir 5 pts ew @ 10/1 sp. odds Described by his trainer as one of the best 3 year olds he's ever trained, he makes his seasonal debut today. His fitness and ability on soft ground have to be taken on trust but is obvioulsy highly regarded and the double figure price is too high to resist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 1, 2004 Author Share Posted September 1, 2004 update Marching Song - 2nd :) Nadir - unplaced :( Strike Rate: 33% (6/18) W/L: -10.83pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 1, 2004 Author Share Posted September 1, 2004 selections 355 Lingfield - Whitgift Rock 5pts ew @ 14/1 sp. odds Admittedly the favourite looks strong here but alot of the other market leaders have doubts over them, namely being unproven on the track and surface. Whitgift rock on the other hand has a record of 112 on the polytack at Lingfield, the 2nd place being beaten by a well handicapped rival. He has been running ok on turf over longer trip and the return to Lingfield today and the return to 7f should be in his favour. Well worth an each way bet at 14/1 with sporting odds and paddypower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted September 2, 2004 Share Posted September 2, 2004 Re: selections keep going Aykay, good write ups. Sure you will be showing a profit soon enough :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 2, 2004 Author Share Posted September 2, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Cheers Norfolk, its gone a bit tits up recently but i'll keep plugging away :) Another unplaced effort today: Strike Rate: 32% (6/19) W/L: -20.83pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 2, 2004 Author Share Posted September 2, 2004 thursday bet Salisbury 520 - Millinsky @ 5/1 sp.odds 5pts ew Has looked useful in 3 races so far and was unlucjy not to win his maiden last time out when not getting a clear won. He still murdered his group. Handicapper has given him a fair mark and he has one of the better jockeys in the race in R Miles who claims 5lb's. He has a record of 1 winner from 2 runs for trainer Karl Burker. Burke highlighted this horse as being a decent sort in a recent interview with the RFO so im going to jump in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 3, 2004 Author Share Posted September 3, 2004 update Backed into 11/4, Millinsky finished 3rd so a small profit yesterday at 5/1 Strike Rate: 37% (7/19) W/L: -19.58 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 3, 2004 Author Share Posted September 3, 2004 bets no time for analysis today im afraid but im going with 2 against the field in the 410 at Haydock: Goodbye Mr Bond @ 5/1 Sp. Odds - 5 pts ew Mr Jack Daniels @10/1 Sp.odds m- 5 pts ew Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 4, 2004 Author Share Posted September 4, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Good day yesterday, Goodbye Mr Bond winning and Mr Jack Daniels placed which is enough to push me back into profit :) Strike Rate: 43% (9/21) W/L: +19.17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 4, 2004 Author Share Posted September 4, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Sorry for the late post with this. My reasons for backing DEVISE in the 135 Haydock @ 5/1 Sp.odds, are already documented in this thread. 5pts each way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 4, 2004 Author Share Posted September 4, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Hmm narrowly beaten again. I may give up on Devise, he has a habit of finding one too good and the handicapper is penalising his consistency. Strike Rate: 48% (10/21) W/L: +20.42pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 5, 2004 Author Share Posted September 5, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets 235 York - True Night 5pts ew @ 7/2 Sporting odds True Night has had a pattern to his form through his career. 4 or 5 average runs at the start of the season then blitzing through Jun July and August before slowing down slighty again for the back end of the season. I appreciate that it is neither June July or August but i am willing to make allowances as it is only the first week of September and True Night has won in late August on 2 occassions. Again this pattern has been followed this year with the horse seemingly in as good form as ever at the age of 7. His last 2 runs have looked disappointing on face value but a closer look would suggest that he was beaten by the draw at Redcar ( Drawn 13/16, the last 5 home were drawn 13 16 15 11 and 14) and hated the soft going last time out. Hasnt won on soft since 2001 and 9 of his 10 wins have been on good ground or better which he encounters today. Its hard to find fault with any of his previous 9 runs this season and i think the horse is coming here in good form, something which cant perhaps be said for market leaders Ionian Spring (well beaten last 3 races, ableit in a higher grade) and favourite Calcutta who is also dropping in grade. In a field of 9, an each way bet is a must i reckon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 6, 2004 Author Share Posted September 6, 2004 update True Night finished 2nd after drifting to 5/1. Unfortuanltely i took the early 7/2 which resulted in a small loss :( Strike Rate: 45% (10/22) W/L: +19.79pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 10, 2004 Author Share Posted September 10, 2004 selection for friday 200 Sandown - Park Approach 5 pts ew @ 9/2 sp.odds This is well regarded by the Noseda stable and showed why last time out when he won his group, beating a horse rated 92 in Juantorona. Im happy to take on the favourite who comes here with a big reputation but at the same time is unraced. With a couple of races under his belt and a promising effort last time, i fancy Park Approach to be in the frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 11, 2004 Author Share Posted September 11, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets So close to a decent payout but instead another runner up - :banghead A 0.63 pts profit nonetheless. :unsure Strike Rate: 48% (11/23) W/L: +20.42pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 11, 2004 Author Share Posted September 11, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets 345 Doncaster - Skywards 5pts ew @ 6/1 Sp. Odds Ignoring his debut run when not acting on the good/soft ground, Skywards has thrived since. Won his subsequent maiden race easily (5 lengths) showing bags of pace he looked one to follow. He confirmed this promise next time out in a valuable Group 3 race at Ascot when beaten a length into 3rd place with the rest of the field well behind - the front 3 pulled clear. Last time out was a disappointment though. Favourite for another Group 3 race at Goodwood, he trailed in 7th of 13 after travelling well early on. 3 reasons why this run can be forgiven: a) In previous races he has "burned rubber" and tried to lead from the start. Hold up tactics were applied at Goodwood which didnt work. b) The horse was reportedly 30 kilos over his racing weight. When winning his maiden the horse weighed 463 kilos. His preparation for the Goodwood race was disrupted and raced weighing 493 kilos. He is in much better shape today. c) The horse swallowed his tongue whilst racing and a tongue strap is applied today. The favourite is a strong one but has ensured we get a good each way price about SKYWARDS. 6/1 is value and he should be in the frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 11, 2004 Author Share Posted September 11, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets 240 Doncaster - Calcutta 5 pts ew @ 10/1 sp. odds Calcutta's record in ths race is impressive having won it twice, finished runner up and finishing 5th(the first 5 clear of the field) His form in September is significant - 114215311 Has been running creditably in handicaps recently with excuses for a couple of below par displays. Of course he is getting on a bit now but won a decent enough race last time out which would suggest he is peaking again. There is a nagging suspicion that he may prefer a smaller field but the 10/1 with Sporting odds is too big and i will back him each way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted September 12, 2004 Share Posted September 12, 2004 Great tip Nice one Aykay mate, I was on your Calcutta tip :ok I always look at your write ups and back them if I like the look of them. It was good to see it marching up the inside to come in first :ok Great thanks and an Arsenal win for you too boot! (and an everton win for me!):nana (Are you on Arsenal for the title, at the moment even at odds on it seems value!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 12, 2004 Author Share Posted September 12, 2004 Re: Great tip Cheers muzeman, it was good to get a winner after some frustrating runner up bets. Leaves me well in profit now which gives me some breathing space :) I havent backed us to win the title although i admit i am confident this year - (and im never confident!!) I cant believe the football im watching sometimes :eek Sounds like we got lucky today though, we should have been 2-0 down apparently :o I have to admit Everton have suprised me this year. Looking pretty useful - ive always liked Gravesen though- quality player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 12, 2004 Author Share Posted September 12, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Calcutta was a winner and Skywards unplaced so the current standing is: Strike Rate: 48% (12/25) W/L: +72.92 pts happy days :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 12, 2004 Author Share Posted September 12, 2004 Re: Aykay's Horse Racing Bets G/wood 235 - Two Step Kid 5pts ew @ 4/1 skybet Ive followed Devise for most of the season so sods law states that he'll win when im not on him! He should be in the frame again but the handicapper has penalised his consistency and is probably too high in the weights now which is a shame as he deserves to win. Another consistent sort is TWO STEP KID who is down in class today. He won the William Hill trophy at York in good style before "winning" the stands side race at Newmarket next time out off a mark 3lb's lower than today. He has since finished 4th in the Stewards Cup, a race which has produced a succession of winners since, including Pivotal point who has won a better race in France and Simianna who has been at least placed in 3 successive Listed races, winning one of them. And of course Halmahera won the Portland at Donny in midweek. The favourite Texas Gold is an obvious threat but hopefully his run in the Portland in midweek will have taken something out of him. 4/1 is a price well worth taking in a reduced field of 9 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 13, 2004 Author Share Posted September 13, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets No complaints - Texas Gold won easily today. Strike Rate: 46% (12/26) W/L: +62.92pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 14, 2004 Author Share Posted September 14, 2004 selections Tuesday 320 York-Mine Behind 5 pts ew @ 5/1 bet 365 After a good run last time out when he easily won the 7 runner race on his side of the field, Miner Behind looks as though a drop to Class D does the trick. Record in Class C or above: 0287000 (0%) Record in Class D or above: 0160322631621 (23%) Races off the same mark today and should go close. A competitive race though admittedly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 14, 2004 Author Share Posted September 14, 2004 selections tuesday 350 Yarmouth - Millinsky - 10 pts win @ 2/1 sp. odds Has run well in all 3 maiden starts and deserves a win. Was backed last time out on his nursery debut suggesting a big run was expected although he was given a poor ride by his apprentice jockey which ultimately scuppered his chances. Back in maiden company i reckon he can win today in a weak looking field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 15, 2004 Author Share Posted September 15, 2004 update Good winner yesterday.... Mine Behind 1st @ 4/1 Millinsky - non runner Strike Rate: 48% (13/27) W/L: +94.17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 15, 2004 Author Share Posted September 15, 2004 selection Wednesday Beverley 535 - Brigadier Monty 5pts ew @ 5/1 sp.odds Slightly disappointed with the price but still worth a bet i reckon with the first 4 places paying out each way. He seems to like this course as illustrated by his previous 2 runs at Beverley. The horse ran very well last time finishing 3rd from an average draw here, where a high draw is a must. First nine home were drawn: 13,14,7,15,12,3,10,18,16 To finish 3rd after meeting trouble in running aswell is a good effort. His previous run was 2 grades higher than today in Class C. Another decent run in a field of 15 is shown by the draws of the first 7 home: 18,14,13,16,9,15,17. He has an ideal draw today and i cant see any reason why he wont go close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest martinthevet Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Aykay's Horse Racing Bets Some good stuff aykay, just wondering, do you look through every race or have you conditions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 16, 2004 Author Share Posted September 16, 2004 selections Cheers Martin, i dont look through every race - far too time consuming! My selections are based on a mixture of my own form study and pointers picked up from the RFO and message boards on the net. For example, the selection i am about to post , i picked up from the timetest page in the RFO. Apparently the horse clocked a good time 3 runs ago and has had excuses in his 2 subsequent races. Conditions should suit him today though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 16, 2004 Author Share Posted September 16, 2004 selection The selection was unplaced yesterday :( Strike Rate: 13/28 (46%) W/L: +84.17pts 350 Pont - Consensus 5pts ew @ 10/1 sp. odds See comments above. Basically the horse ran a great race 3 runs ago, clocking a very good time. 2 subsequent runs have been on unsuitable ground and from a hopeless draw at Beverley (stall 1). He is sliding down to an attractive rating and could go close today at a decent price with conditions back in his favour. With nine runners i think an each way punt is worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 18, 2004 Author Share Posted September 18, 2004 Re: selection Consensus was unplaced so... Strike Rate (13/29) 45% W/L: +74.17pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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