Wildgarden

Hispanic  delivers  and Capone  for decent return on  place money  😀 

Top 2 are 1st and 2nd In betting ....I'll go 5pt ew top 3 8/1 10/1 14/1 

325 deaville
Change of tack today ....been playing with my speed pars of late with some success behind the scenes ......I noted this race as being sub standard on the whole ......with only sivka burka 13/2 ....and fancy me 12/1 even coming within a stones throw of the par so I'll try a,speculative 5pt ew both and see what happens later 😃

U need to prioritise Ur time accordingly, if this ain't for u fine. 

@mick33 extends his lead with 17/2 Ayr winner Wee Fat Mac on another profitable day for the naps. Top winner is 18/1 Visitant for @kenisbusy

I'm mildly intrigued by the thread even though I don't bet on the sport myself. You're backing half the field (sometimes more) at what tend to be odds on (when you work out the dutched prices) so you're going to need a better than 50% strike rate to break even. Whether you can show a profit depends on your long term ability to beat those odds. I can't help thinking that, if you're a good enough judge of the sport to eke out a profit betting this way, that there would be better ways to bet than backing so many dogs in one race.
Short term the results mean little (someone picking 3 dogs at random could post good initial results through luck alone) so we'll see what the bottom line looks like after 100s of bets should the thread make it that far.
One thing I'd like a count of (as it would mean more than just the bare P/L) is how many races have been bet on and how many winners there have been (preferably broken down into number of races with 3 and 4 runners backed, but total would do if that's too much trouble).
Good luck with it.

I'm not sure I like these Shergar Cup meetings they seem to be a bit like Racing League crap

Agree, if top 3 are like 2-1 3-1 4-1 what's the point 

Usually I rate the races and check betting etc .....if there are hardly any differences between the top 4 or 5 and they aren't that far in front of the next horses I'll pass on the race .....I'm usually looking for races where the top 2 or 3 are considerably ahead of the next horses then I can check betting and see which horses are value......if the betting is all cramped like the top 3 are 4/1 and under ....again I'll probably pass because price doesn't outweigh risk .....you are looking for strong rating and good price 

Newmarket. 
Double. 
3.40. Fallen Angel      11/4
4.15. Lethal Levi          4/1
singles & double 
stk 6.00     rtn 55.00 
Good luck all. 

Classic  Causeway                                              3 00 Hyd/                 1/40th of a pt ew     33/1    { some paying  3 places }
Rainbow Fire                                                       3 20 Asc/                  1/40th of a pt ew     16/1    { some paying 4 places }
The Turpinator                                                    2 25 Hyd/                 1/40    of a pt ew     38/1
System                                                                  2 25 Hyd/                 1/40th of a pt ew    50/1
Thunderbear                                                       3 25 Cra/                  1/40th of a pt ew     22/1
Thhemaxwecan   N/R                                                
French Invader                                                   3 55 Asc/                   1/40th of a pt ew    15/1
Fox Tal                                                                  3 20 Asc/                  1/40th of a pt ew    18/1                                      
 
 
 
 
 
 
P/L   +167.60  pts              

350 musselborough judgment day 4-1 paddy power 

Took the 9/2 and 15/2 ....10 pt win international ...5pt win ghafanthar 

Just had time to rate this race for tomorrow (weds)
520 pont 
International girl   8.2  32 95 92 
Ghafanthar    8.1  31 31 55 
Harry's halo   7.7  22 34  34 
Very Interesting race .....as yiu can see international girl has poor form figures but has been running well in much much  better class than this giving a high class rating both last 2 runs ....danger could be ģhafanthar ....Will be very interesting to see how international girl reacts to this big drop in class according to ratings .....I'm holding back on odds as only 1 bookie priced race .....I'm looking at 9/2 and 15/2 top 2 but I'm hoping I can beat that later on betfair maybe so I'll edit price once they are fully online ....

very nice one Richard 

Windsor 8pm
PFINGSTBERG
win
gets two pulls from the top weight and would also have been drawn alongside as well.
very hard to oppose on form of last run and on the above. Runs off same mark and was well clear of the third at Leicester on soft ground.
winning distance 3+lengths @ 13/8 any runner.

Haymaker blew the start leaving indian creak to come late ....nice result  +47.50😀

Team: Wildgarden84
Name: Stephen T

A few statistics from the naps tables since Jan 21, some maybe relevant, others maybe not.
Over 52,000 entries so certainly a reasonable data size. The overall ROI is -4%.
The ideal odds range is 11/10 to 11/4 with 2,451 wins from 6,967 selections and a profit of 391 points (ROI 6%).
Those selections settled at SP show a loss of 29%. This perhaps shows the importance of taking an early price and BOG.
Win selections show a return of -5%, each way -1%. The each way selections are settled at standard terms so the returns will be better if extra places were taken into account.
God's own county is the place to be. The top 2 courses are in Yorkshire, Thirsk with a profit of 286 points and Doncaster 237.
The course with the biggest loss is Wolverhampton (-543 points, ROI -17%).
Players that have recorded a profit of over 30 points in their last 50 selections have produced 557 wins from 3,618 selections with a profit of 550 points (ROI 16%). 50 day moving averages have proved significant in share investing.
Players that have recorded at least 2 wins from their last 5 selections have produced 3,152 wins from 10,383 selections and a profit of 456 points (4% ROI).
A 20 day strike rate of over 26% has resulted in 3,987 wuns from 13,326 runs with a profit of 465 points (3% ROI).
A 10 day strike rate of greater than 33% has resulted in 2,827 wins from 8,736 runs with a profit of 495 points (6% ROI).
A 5 day strike rate of 40% and above has produced 3,421 from 11,540 runs with a profit of 485 points (4% ROI).
A 50 day ROI greater than 32% has produced 1,996 wins from 10,721 runs with a profit of 629 points (6% ROI).
The best month is May with a return of 4%, the worst is January at -10%. April to September is -1%, October to March is -8%.
Thursday and Friday show a profit of 4%. Sunday shows a loss of 13%. This may be because of the lack of racing on a Sunday and members struggling to find a selection. Monday (-9%) and Tuesday (-8%) also show big losses.
The first 7 selections have produced 1,316 wins from 6,273 selections with a profit of 510 points (8% ROI). This may show the importance of grabbing the early prices. In reality it may prove difficult to generate these returns now that most bookmakers do not offer BOG the night before racing.
 
 
 

730 wind 
Haymaker  8.2 5.6  33 82 72 
Indian creak   8.0 11.5   80 30 70 
Lethal nymph   7.7 27 25 60 
5pt wins top 2 

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Remember, in order to be eligible to win any of these prizes you must have joined the private league via the link above and be a registered member of this forum. Prizes must be claimed within 90 days of being announced. Once you have joined, please confirm your team name and real-life name in this thread so we can identify you if you are eligible to win one of the above prizes.
Can you beat the reigning champion @Gazza's United? Get involved if you think you have what it takes! 

Haydock 5:45
Nellie Leylax
win
class dropper and in very good form

Lucky 15.
1.33. Deau. Mill Stream        3/1   1st 
3.25. Deau. Spycatcher        3/1    2nd 
2.30. Chest. Making Dreams    11/2  1st 
3.38. Chest. Fast Response         7/2   2nd 
stk 7.50    489.34.
------------------
Haydock. 
Single 
5.45. Beyond Border            6/1   
stk 5.00     rtn 35.00
Good luck all. 

British Invasion at Deauville 3.25 Sunday for big prize money Group 1....... race already priced up Saturday evening and gone British 🤞 50pts outlay............
out today, so see what account looks like 8ish this evening 🤞
 
Art Power  5/2  ( odds boost )     15pts     &      Cold Case  11/2       6 pts          &        Spycatcher   9/2        9 pts    
Art Power win & either Cold Catcher / Spycatcher finish 2nd  @ 9/2       7 pts
Art Power, Cold Case, Spycatcher & Sandrine To Finish 1-2-3-4 any order @ 12/1      3 pts 
Combination Tri ......Art power / Cold case / Spycatcher @ 13/2        4pts
Combination Tri.......Art power / cold case / King gold  @ 12/1           3pts
Combination Tri....   Art power / Spycatcher / King gold  @ 10/1         3pts
 
   lovely day out 👍.......😱 touched off on the line by short head for 2nd, which would have at least got my stake back! hey ho.....

Great write up by The Brigadier, 'we' read it over the coffee / fruit juice / croissants ( thats a posh pastry guys 😂 ) ........Home now, soooo i think small stakes today, after great day at the course yday. Some nice price tips on thread too, i think will also follow 👍........Good luck to all 🤞
 
Good 1.50       Live in the moment  12/1 EW     4th     &       Count Otto  20/1  EW  NR       &            Temple Bruer     35/1  EW            betfair  4 places 
Newm 2.05     Snafiya  4/1         &             Flaccianello    8/1  EW     WON 
Good 2.25       Torcello  12/1  EW    4th  18/1      &     Mr Curiosity   7/1 EW           &          HMS President    9/1 EW     NR                      4 places
Newm 2.40      Amusement     7/2            &               Sunset Point       11/4
Don  2.45         Thunder Star      9/2   WON        &          Slingsbytoo  13/2  EW     2nd      2 places
Good 3.00       River of Stars   7/2             &          Peripatetic     14/1 EW               
Good 3.35       Apollo One  14/1 EW    2nd        &                Albasheer  20/1  EW            &           Vintage Clarets    40/1  EW                6 places
   
    2 Wins 🏆 🏆....... ( 1 mine & 1 from thread 👍 )  and 4 EW  places, sooo came out ahead ( just as small stakes today  )         

1.5pts e/w-3.35  GW- MR WAGYU 20/1 bog  6places 4th 7.2pts Returned (R4 5p)
0.75pts e/w - 3.35 GW- HYPERFOCUS 40/1 not bog  6places  LOST
1pt e/w - 2.25 GW- TORCELLO 20 bog 4places- 4th 4.60pts returned (R4 10p)
1pt e/w-2.25 GW- EUCHEN GLEN 20/1 bog 4 places- 3rd 4.60pts Returned (R4 10p) 
2pts e/w- 5.20 GW- GREATGRAIDAIN 12/1 bog 4places VOID