Wildgarden

Todays selections

13:32 Fakenham Princeton Royale 14:20 Nottingham Afandem 14:32 Fakenham Perfect Moment 15:02 Fakenham Imperil 15:40 Taunton Bathiva 15:50 Nottingham Stormingin 16:40 Taunton Sakandi 17:45 Kempton Capriolette 18:15 Kempton Takeonefortheteam 19:45 Kempton Starcat  
 

Place bank +€1,395
Win bank +€6,221

815 kempton let rip Betfair so - win and place (bookies are 2 points below current offered price Betfair atm) 
Down in trip in a larger field with decent claimer giving 5lbs. I know the trainer only has 1 win from 39 all weather but I'll discount that for this one with not enough data that side of things and could be turn around against younger field.

Then I see why they seem to compliment each other ......mine are based on past runs .....who beat who etc lol ....priority is given to last 2 runs so that's 2 ratings ......then the best run in last 6 ....that's 3 ratings ......a class rating that's 4 .....and a recent performance rating based on last 3 runs that is completely diff method from the other 4 like a bonus figure  .....weight is adjusted accordingly then the computer will take it's best "guess " as to what the horse can achieve today if it runs its race .based on the big picture ........I learned this method from the weather forecasts funnily enough...its how the super computers predict the weather....take loads of diff perspectives and see roughly what will happen...so if i get 4 figures 221 224 219 and 227 then realistically a figure of 223 for today is realistic given similar conditions /weight etc ......the last 2 are class rating ....I then judge the value on the ratings ... so if I rate a race 
Horsez1  225  3/1 
Horse 2  224   10/1 
Horse 3 224 7/1 
Horse 4  223  5/2 fav
Horse 5  219  7/1 
Then obviously horses 2 and 3 are the value bets ..   it's a no brainer 
If the ratings are 
Horse 1   233  7/2 
Horse 2 230 6/1 
Horse 3 225   4/1 
Horse 4 222 10/1 
With the other horses behind ....then the top 2  look value in these conditions to me and I'll play .....that's how i roll every time .....

Thanks to Cross Fire a NR  28pts staked 30.72pts returned, (better than losing I suppose)
Highjacked , Galileo Silver , Let Me Be all placed Sea of Mystery still to run

Fakenham
13.02 Doc De Bourbon for the Paul Nichols stable finished 9th in a bumper last time out and has been beatern by 13 lenghts total in both, has since had a wind op and should go well, however my selection is for Plenty In The Tank for Olly Murphy having won a Chepstow bumper a year ago and was sold for £75,000 in November and has since had wind op    - Selection: Plenty In The Tank
14.32 Vinnie's Getaway won a bumper has since been placed on all 3 starts over hurdles for Olly Murphy recent run at Ludlow saw him beat by 4 lengths but is up in trip and with a claimer on the back taking 7 off could well be the answer  - Selection: Vinnie's Getaway
Kempton
17.15 Accrington Stanley who are they? credible 2nd at Chelmsford earlier this month over 7 furlongs and with cheekpeices on this time and shorter distance this time 6 furlongs could again finish in the prize money, Grey Sparkle won last week over course and distance and does carry a penalty here for that could go well again, it may also be worth keeping an eye on Arion Fox for Roger Varian finished 6th at Lingfield last time in a weaker race -  Selection: Grey Sparkle
19.15 Really Super has won 1 and placed 1 from the 2 runs so far this year, won last time out at Chelmsford 41 days ago for Amy Murphy could be the one to beat here, Imperium last won in June at Lingfield and followed that up with a 3rd place at Haydock 33 days ago in a handicap should make the top 3 again, Indigo Times has won last 2 races including 20 days ago at Chelmsford in 6 runner race, Oisin has the ride tonight and should go well yet again   - Selection: Really Super
Nottingham
13.15 A very tricky race this one, So I Told You  is a C&D winner last Autumn in testing muddy ground given the weather in last 24hours conditions could be on the heavy side so does have good claims with William Buick on board , Flying West is coming in for a hat-trick of wins and has  Tom Marquand on for this, last win Yarmouth in heavy ground  should give a good account, Espresso Freddo is another interesting runner won 9 days ago at Windsor easily and carries a 5lb penalty for that in this race JP Spencer rides  - Selection: So I Told You but any of the 3 could win this
 

Morning,
There will be the odd day when I don't get a chance to post; this usually coincides with a bank holiday in Ireland which it was yesterday.
For what it's worth I've no issue with any posting on the thread.
Here's todays selections.
12:30 Bangor Madera Mist 13:00 Bangor Scartare 14:35 Bangor Guard Your Dreams 14:55 Chepstow Brophies Doll 15:15 Catterick Broken Spear 15:50 Catterick I'll Be Good 18:20 Southwell Xcelente 19:50 Southwell Thawry  
 

this month +549.88
looking at the AW today for a change
Sou 5.50 - Notation 3/1 and Cheap Jack 7/2
Sou 6.20 - Xcelente 10/11 and Star of St James 6/1
prices wm hill bog
4 x £5 doubles

210 catterick grace and virtue 4.3 Betfair exchange win (only 5-2 nearest bookie)
Up in class but on recently preferred ground and looked a class above rest last race. May prefer smaller field more than others and stats look good from trainer.

220 chep 
Galileo silver  288
Arkyn 285 
Galileo silver looked strong in defeat last time and no shame in that run ....has a big fitness edge now and richard johnson takes the ride .......arkyn is an outsider but has run well on soft in the past and has run some good races over 2m4/5 so if he can last home has ew chances 
Galileo silver 6pt win 3/1 bet365
Arkyn 3pt ew 16/1 bet365 
 
 

210 catterick grace and virtue 4.3 Betfair exchange win (only 5-2 nearest bookie)
Up in class but on recently preferred ground and looked a class above rest last race. May prefer smaller field more than others and stats look good from trainer.

13.20 Chepstow
A competitive Maiden Hurdle to wet the appetiser and it’s BALMUICK (Nap) who gets the vote. He was well backed on bumper debut at Hexham last month where he powered clear to win cosily by four lengths for top connections and he looks the one to beat. Star Gate was bought for six figures after winning sole start in Irish points in February and could be set for a big run on Hurdle debut. Everglow can make his presence felt and is of serious danger to the selection, dropping back in class from Class 1 to Class 4.
13.50 Chepstow
WAYFINDER has been a very consistent type throughout his career so far and did well last season when winning a bumper and a competitive handicap hurdle, showing promise when runner-up on his chase debut at Ffos Las on return last time out and can improve from that. The in-form Schnabel is an obvious threat as he goes for a three-timer. While Hideaway Vic who has never finished outside the first three is primed for a big run on chase debut and is a major player.
2.10 Catterick
The versatile GRACE AND VIRTUE continued her fine progress when recording her third win of the season at Musselburgh a fortnight ago (7f, soft). She is back up in class here but that might not prevent her from winning this. Her last two victories where she won emphatically both times have come on similar ground to this and she can take all the beating if taking to track. Praxeology rates the chief threat after considerable improvement over course and distance 10 days ago (soft), with the rampant Hollie Doyle on board.
3.25 Chepstow
An intriguing novice chase and cases can be made for a few of these but it is LIOSDUIN BHEARNA who was last seen dishing out a commanding 6-1/2 length beatdown to Blackjack Kentucky in a Doncaster handicap hurdle back in February who gets the vote.  L'Air Du Vent who improved gamely in his last performance, once laid down a challenge to Shiskin in an Irish point-to-point, so could yet have untapped potential so rates a big player. The consistent Ashfield Paddy is also one of interest on chase debut, having performed admirably over Hurdles thus far.
3.40 Bangor-on-Dee
Closely related to the ever popular fan favourite The New One, it is THE NEWEST ONE who gets the tentative selection. He has shown improvement with every run so far in his short career and now fresh from a break, he gets his chance to show what he’s capable of. Lightly raced Cathal’s Star showed improved form to get off the mark when winning handily at Sedgefield on his reappearance last time out so is a big danger, albeit now 11lb up from that win. While market leader Java Point is of interest and can make presence felt for Kim Bailey, open to improvement on handicap debut now up in trip.

Backed to 4-1 but finished 4th

Young fire backed in wins nicely by 3 3/4 lengths for 7.2 points profit.

12.30 Ayr
In what could be a telling Class 4 Mares Maiden Hurdle. The one to beat here is WHISKEY LULLABY who was purchased for a big fee from a top class French National Hunt pedigree. A half sister to Grade 2 winning chaser Petit Robin (167-rated and Queen Mother Champion Chase-placed as well as many other top two-mile hurdles and chases) and to the dam of Anibale Fly (174-rated and Gold Cup-placed). She showed promise when second on bumper debut earlier this year and the step up in trip on her hurdling bow is likely to see Paul Nicholls' mare take a decent step forward. This potentially high-class Filly is expected to do big things for the in-form Nicholls stable. Lady Bowes scored at the fourth time of asking in a soft-ground Perth bumper in August when making pretty much all and she has to be of interest along with Class Bishop Lady, who is expected to bounce back from her disappointing effort at Killarney earlier in the month.
12.40 Redcar
This is a race in which Mark Johnston has said he would really love to win and it is SOAPY STEVENS after his promising debut third at Nottingham that has a massive possibility to gift him just that so gets the verdict. This gelded son of multiple Grade 1 winning Harzand can build on that with the slightly longer trip looking sure to be in his favour. The superbly bred Derby entry Mahomes took a step forward from debut last time out and should do so again so rates the obvious danger ahead of the equally well bred William Haggas-trained Derby Entry Chalk Stream who looks set to improve on his decent second place finish on debut.
12.50 Leicester
This race revolves around the top two in the market. The impressive ALDAARY who received significant market backing first time out gets the vote. The William Haggas gelding forged clear by over 3 lengths at Yarmouth on debut and didn’t look like stopping when running on well at the finish. Up 6lbs more from that but shouldn’t be enough to stop him from following up in this field, he should take all the beating and is very capable of defying a penalty. The experienced and consistent Dark Illusion has acquitted himself well in soft ground nurseries of late and is the one to fear.
1.05 Ayr
This is an ultra competitive novice hurdle that can go to the well-bred CONFIRMATION BIAS. He made the perfect start in Wincanton bumper last November before running into a very good one when 14l (heavy) back at course and distance on Boxing Day under a penalty. He has since had a wind op and ought to be in the thick of things on today’s hurdle debut. The ever consistent and experienced Gordon Elliott trained Curlew Hill can go well and is a big threat to the selection with form of his third placed finish over in Ireland last time out working out well. Market leader Cadzand is also one to watch having showed serious ability in first 2 starts and has a significant role to play.
1.15 Redcar
YOUNG FIRE was a creditable fourth of 20 in a York handicap (1m, soft) 17 days ago when conceding first run and was only beaten 4l in the 6f Ayr Gold Cup so is taken to capture a career-second win here after scoring at Haydock (7, soft) last month. Market leader Turn On The Charm is progressing at a rate of knots and supplemented his breakthrough triumph at Kempton when defying a 5lb higher mark at Nottingham. He is up another 6lb today and a massive player if handling this softer surface. Global Spirit also arrives in winning form, having burst back on the scene at York last time out.
2.35 Leicester. 
Marginal preference in a decent handicap is for improving sort and tough HARTSWOOD who comes here with the scope for further progress after a light campaign. He so nearly completed a York double when close second at the Ebor meeting last time out and his victor has since placed well in Listed company. Ascension's hat-trick bid may have failed over 7f here, but he lost very little in defeat and there are still races in him off this mark so rates the chief threat. Three-time winner Dashing Roger is open to further progress and promises to be suited by this step up in trip so is not dismissed lightly.
3.15 Wexford
This looks like the perfect seasonal opener for RSA second MINELLA INDO (Nap) who is clearly the most talented horse in this field and if anywhere close to his best he will be difficult to oppose, he should take all the beating with an official rating of 160. Beaten close home at Cheltenham by Champ in a remarkable finish (one for the highlight reel), that was only his third start over fences and he is a very exciting prospect indeed. Milan Native is the main threat to the selection and has 11lb in his favour to work with on the selection. Turbojet won a beginners' chase by 11 lengths when last seen at Leopardstown in March and is the clear third best on paper so can run a good race in this high-class chase.
5.30 Newcastle
A chance can be taken on LUA DE MEL in this Class 4 competitive handicap sprint. This Course and distance winner here earlier in the year can make her presence felt, she has seemingly struggled racing over 6f since that win and can upset the market leaders here back down at 5f. This is the first time she’s dropped back down to 5f in 3 races and is eased in the weights slightly so this is an ideal opportunity for her to get back on track. Her best efforts have come from the front and she will be happier back on the AW with the booking of James Doyle a big plus who is 3 from 6 for the yard. Doc Sportello is an admirable veteran who never does much wrong and is a threat to the selection in first time blinkers. Tom Marquand has a good record onboard and he may be able to land an impressive seventh career win. Batchelor Boy who is 3-3 on Tapeta completes the shortlist.
Hope you all enjoy the read ?

Turn On The Charm is very much the one to beat but I am also taking a chance here on Young Fire. Will post write up but I like the pick and he seems slightly overpriced.

115 Redcar young fire win and place 6-1 betvictor /others 
Down to class 3 and looked like running on last race, same jockey on board in preferred smaller amount of runners.

There's a 19K handicap at Leicester on Monday at 2.00 and it's got just 2 runners ......... 
Current odds (bet365) are
Win O Clock 4/9
Buriran 7/4
I quite fancy the outsider of the two ....... well, he's only got one to beat !
This is a 12 furlong race on heavy ground. My horse has won over 14 furlongs and the odds on Fav has only won over 10 Furlongs. He's also 13lbs higher than his last handicap win and is a 3yo giving weight to an older horse.
My horse has De Sousa up ....... won on him last twice he's  been in the saddle and the Fav has a claimer (OK, a good one but still a claimer)
I can just see Sylvestre making the running knowing his horse will stay and running the legs off the younger horse
The favourite will undoubtedly be the better horse in time but in today's conditions I fancy the outsider !
Be interesting to see how the betting goes in the morning
 
 
 

115 Redcar young fire win and place 6-1 betvictor /others 
Down to class 3 and looked like running on last race, same jockey on board in preferred smaller amount of runners.

5 winners last night, £10+ profit, will try 4 lucky 15s again toinght
luckt 15 bet365
Positive Phil @ 7/2 Gulfstream Park West 18:28 Native Prince @ 7/4 Woodbine 20:12 Murad Khan @ 11/4 Santa Anita 21:30 Tonahutu @ 5/1 Santa Anita 23:30   lucky 15 bet365 Barilko @ 5/2 Woodbine 18:36 Ima Daredevil @ 7/4 Gulfstream Park West 18:58 Quiet Company @ 5/1 Laurel Park 19:43 Sweet Bye And Bye @ 5/1 Belmont Park 20:55   e-w lucky betfair Fly The W @ 7/1 Laurel Park 18:37 Kozy Dreams @ 6/1 Gulfstream Park West 19:30 Violent Point @ 8/1 Belmont Park 21:25 Rose Dunn @ 17/2 Santa Anita 22:30   lucky 15 bet365 Muskoka Storm @ 15/8 Woodbine 22:20 U S Danger @ 9/4 Golden Gate Fields 22:15 Gabos Macondo @ 2/1 Golden Gate Fields 21:15 Sing In The Wind @ 7/2 Golden Gate Fields 00:15      

Don't worry ..... we all post lots of losers !
I'm just in a good run at the moment .... ?

returns 118.13, profit 98.13
this month = +569.88
 

I’m also on Mohayyed , Richard. Good luck. 

340 ain't 
Caius Marcius  344 
Mohayyed 342 
Point of principle   340 
Clever as a fox 337 
Clever as a fox is an improving type and could run well today but the top 3 here are all 14/1 so look very good value ...I'll try small wins and hope they spring a surprise 
Caius Marcius 5pt win 14/1 
Point of principle 5pt win 14/1 
Mohayyed 5pt win 14/1 
All generally available 

this month + 471.75
Having another go at getting a short priced double .....
Gal 3.00 - Beacon Edge 5/4
Gal 3.35 - Lieutenant Command 11/8
prices bet365 bog
£20 double