TomOlej

Well, Zhang delivered quite nicely!
Gilles Simon (+2.5 sets) to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.93 with Pinnacle
Adding this one due to the slow and damp conditions. Simon is obviously in decline, but he'll have more patience than Shapo anyway and that alone could well translate into a set, if not more.
 

Boom! 6/6 ?????
Śląsk - Piast 2-0?
Raków - Legia 1-2?
Płock - Mielec 1-1?
Warta - Lechia 0-1?
Górnik - Podbeskidzie 3-2?
Jagiellonia - Wisła Kraków 1-1?

https://www.the-nomads.co.uk/news/article.php?id=1051
Connah's Quay were underdogs for their game with Dinamo Tblisi anyway but it's been confirmed three of their squad players have tested positive covid-19 and they're playing the game regardless. This could be a tough night of action for the Nomads. I'd advise backing the away side to win by 3-4 goals at least.

Piast Gliwice (Pol)  - Hartberg (Aut)

Piast was the best defending team in league last season, they losing under 0,9 goal per match. First step in Europa league they played against Dinamo Minsk keeping clear sheet. We rarely see a lot of goals in  Piast's game - an average of 2.0 goals per game. The end of the last season and the beginning of the current one is a period of bad game by Piast - after 3 games didn't score a goal. Nonetheless in game against fifth team of the Austian league - Piast is considered a favorite. To be clear i don't have any knowledge about Austrian league but i think the sportbookers have enough to choose Piast as favorite. If Piast is favorite, so Hartberg has to play bigger shit than Piast. I expect boring game with maximum 2 goals. 

Tip - Under 2.5 @2.10 

Zverev A. (ATP: 7) - Thiem D. (ATP: 3)

To present my point of view, I will use short anecdote.  The coach assistant Dariusz Śledziewskiego during Opposition Instructions say - "Guys... France! What I can say? Winners of World Champions and European Championship. Barthez - experience, phenomenal game and ball controlling. Right defender Thuram - what i can say? - it's it! Central Defender - Blanc game visions and Desailly - rock! dont even jump to ball because it's not make seanse. Next - Zidane, guys don't come closer than 2 meters because it will be ridiculous. Forward - Henry! don't even try to go out and catch offside because it doesn't make sense." And so they are sitting, you know, depressed.. In a moment we have to leave, 80,000 Stade de France. Now coach entered the cloakroom, looked at the board ... and says - "Gentlemen, France ... this is the past ...".
 
Zverev during tournament plays very chaotic and makes a lot of mistakes, hims opponent Thiem plays one of the best tournament in life. So why did two competitors with such a different form meet in the final? Because Zverev at decisive moments he gains concentration and plays very wall. The Final is decisive moment. Tennis in large part is psychological game. A long overview of the statistics and description of the form doesn't make sense because everybody who watch tennis know about it. If Zverev will be concentrated, he should win this battle. 

Zverev @4.75

4pts Maria Sakkari to beat Amanda Anisimova @ 1.91 Betfred
The bookies have this as a pick 'em match, but I give Sakkari a slight edge. She's the more consistent player in this match-up and she has some good wins coming into this, including against Serena recently which will have boosted her confidence. It's a slight concern she's needed three sets in each of her matches here so far, but Anisimova hasn't had it all her own way either - she went a set and a break down against Scott in the last round before making a comeback. Sakkari is significant upgrade on the American youngster and is far more likely to convert if she gets ahead in the match.

Sometimes I leave things I should have taken (and vice versa )... Coric looked way too big against Tsitsipas but I was put off by him needing five sets to beat Londero. It's a reminder I suppose to treat each match on its merits (and price) and not let previous matches affect your thinking too much.

WTA Australian Open:
Alison Riske - Julia Goerges [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

I wrote about Riske many times in last months, and also here at AO, no reason to repeat it. I can only add, that with Zhu she played much better than with Wang. She wasnt doing any mistakes and played her classic annoying tennis.

Goerges last matches didnt impress me at all. She is playing well till she gets under pressure and than she is always doing easy mistakes. She did it with Bencic in Adeleide and with Wozniacki in Auckland. Here she won vs poor Kuzmova and yesterday 7-5 in third over Martic, but Petra in current form is nowhere near Alison.

I really do not get current odds. Goerges hates players like Riske, she will have to play lot of long rallies, lot of low balls and thats exactly what she cant stand. I have Riske as almost 65% fav, so would give her 1,70 max here. Best value in 3rd roud for me. GL

By one game again .
Marton Fucsovics to beat Tommy Paul at 1.61 with Pinnacle
I'm on a bad connection at the moment and I don't know when this is going to change, but I definitely want to take this for tomorrow. Fucsovics has definitely been the more impressive player of the two so far for me and he has the right weapons for dealing with Paul, who is like Shapovalov in some respects.

This is probably the trickiest Grand Slam we've had to deal with so far in terms of conditions, because this is very different from having some rainy weeks. It's also hard to know how good the air quality is going to be in advance, because there are a lot of factors affecting that. I've also read that the umpires will be able to stop play pretty much indefinitely once the air quality becomes unbearable, although how exactly that is going to work is anyone's guess, because I'm sure that they are going to be pushed to the limit in that regard so as not to delay the tournament unnecessarily (well, unnecessarily for the organizers, that is). The world's elite and a few other lucky players are very likely to be shielded from most of the burden thanks to the three roofs the Australian Open comes with and I'm actually not all that surprised that Federer isn't against playing anymore, since he was likely notified that he's going to get all the right scheduling again, as is very likely to happen with Nadal, Djokovic, Barty, etc. as well.
So what are we to make out of all this? Well, I've ran through the quarters a couple of times and, right now, pretty much the only bet that I'm considering is Barty to win her quarter, because she's been seriously impressive this week and as I'm sure that the organizers are going to do everything in order to increase her chances. So yeah, let's actually stick that out there - Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365 - the other strong players in her quarter are Kvitova (who might have serious physical issues) and Keys, while the rest shouldn't be too difficult honestly.
As for the matches, I think that one has to be somewhat cautious and I honestly reckon that the best strategy to make a profit is to stay up all night, watch as many matches and possible, see how the players are coping with the conditions and bet accordingly. I stand by the Pegula bet that I've posted above, as she really is better than Townsend and as, let's face it, Townsend is the likelier of the two to seriously struggle if heat or bad air shows up. In general, you also have to be very wary of players that haven't played in any events so far or that haven't really performed in them, which is why I also very much like Cori Gauff (-2.5) to beat Venus Williams at 1.93 with Pinnacle. If I remember correctly, Venus withdrew from one of the early events due to some health issues and she has some chronic problems as well, so, unless nerves get to her, Gauff should prevail. I also like Shuai Zhang (-2.5) to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.88 with Pinnacle, because the two are going in different directions at the moment and because Sloane just isn't worth backing unless she's focused and on some sort of a run. She has the right skills for beating everyone, but she's just terrible when off and Zhang has the weapons to put her off and a 5-2 season record to boot. I really am focused too much on women and favorites and this might cost me, but what can I do when I don't see anything else? I'll also be backing three straight set victories on that front, Tamara Zidansek (-1.5 sets) to beat Han Na-Lae at 2.02 with Pinnacle, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Nina Stojanovic 2-0 at 1.80 with Bet365 and Magda Linette (-1.5 sets) to beat Arantxa Rus at 1.85 with Pinnacle. Those are some serious mismatches at the moment as far I see things, especially Zidansek and Pavs. Finally, in terms of qualifiers, I can't ignore Lauren Davis (-3.5) to beat Annie Leylah Fernandez at 1.71 with local and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.62 with local.
That's what I have so far and I'm looking forward to everyone else's suggestions!

Back Jelena Ostapenko to beat Petra Kvitova at 3.50 with Skybet
This has to be tried after the disaster against Radwanska in New Haven. Not only did Kvitova lose that match horribly, but she also claimed to be ill afterwards and even saying that she might not be fully fit for the US Open. That's not the only thing to be worried about here from her side, however - she's already lost against Ostapenko twice in this very season, after all. There's no doubt that Kvitova is the favourite here, but these odds look too juicy given the circumstances.

Can't see anything myself, I can see Larsson beating Svitolina if she starts well though, so that's one for the live betting perhaps.

Back Rajeev Ram (+2.5) to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.73 with Paddy Power
Ram should cover this line more often than not imo with his tricky playing style that could easily frustrate Edmund, who hasn't been in the best of forms lately. The American, on the other hand, is fresh from Rio and he's got a medal to show for his efforts as well, which could do a lot for his confidence. No reason to worry about the US Open either, as he's secured a WC for himself, so this is all about him trying his best in home conditions - and, considering that he's recently beaten Gulbis and Pouille, it would be very wrong to underestimate him.