thetwotwins

Cardiff vs Barnsley
This Saturday is a momentous day for myself. It's the first time I take my son to see a Cardiff game and I've unfortunately been forced to choose our underwhelming home game against Barnsley that's set to kick-off at 3pm. These are two clubs that have just undergone a change of manager and it'll be interesting to see how they fare against each other in this match-up.
Cardiff are undefeated under Neil Harris. The 1-0 win away to Nottingham Forest was a pleasant surprise for all Bluebirds fans. I'm not really sure what Harris is doing apart from perhaps injecting a bit more life and enthusiasm into our squad. He's brought Gary Madine back into the fold and he's been a great focal point so far... which I never thought I'd say! The club is up to 10th in the table and just 3 points off the play-offs so there is a bit of a cautious feelgood factor building around the place. Back-to-back clean sheets has also been a huge buzz to see.
Barnsley were looking down and out this season after the controversial sacking of Daniel Stendel. Gerhard Struber (no, not the bad guy from Die Hard but it does sound similar!) has taken the reigns and after a negative start he finally notched up a 3-1 win against mid-table Hull. It ended a winless streak of 17 league games. The Tykes remain bottom of the league table and 5 points adrift of safety but that first league win since the opening day of the season cannot be under-estimated.
Failure to pick up a single win on the road in the league this season is cause for concern for Barnsley. Especially against a Cardiff side that have only lost 1 of their 9 home league games this season. I'm quietly confident that if we play as we have been then we can seal a win here. Barnsley don't have a great record against Cardiff having only won 1 of the last 10 meetings and 3 of the last 20 encounters. I expect that record to get even worse after this weekend.
Cardiff HT/FT @ 2.80 with BetVictor
BTTS @ 1.62 with Betfred

Manchester City vs Manchester United
The Premier League festive season schedule begins to gain some traction this weekend. It's the Manchester derby between Manchester City and Manchester United in a 5:30pm GMT kick-off this Saturday evening. Both teams desperately want to win this and with the visitors beginning to show signs of positive results again this might not be as straight forward as it might have seemed for the hosts.
Manchester City find themselves in the precarious position of 3rd place. The gap between Pep Guardiola's men and league leaders Liverpool is now 11 points. Have their chances of retaining the league title all but died already? Just 2 wins in their last 4 league games might not raise an eyebrow for most teams but the two games suffered by City where points were dropped must be seen as borderline catastrophic. A 3-1 loss away to title rivals Liverpool and a 2-2 draw away against an average Newcastle side. The 4-1 destruction of Burnley in midweek was a perfect response. City's home form is also still impressive this season with 5 wins and 1 draw from their 7 league games at home.
Manchester United seemed to be set to sack Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and replace him with the former Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino only a couple of weeks ago. However, it's now 4 league games undefeated for the Red Devils including a quality 2-1 win at home against Tottenham in midweek. The club is now in 6th place but they have drifted 8 points off the pace of the top four so might need a miracle to get back into the Champions League this season. The real issue is United's awful away form. Just 1 win in their 7 away matches in the league this season.
I think we all expect City to dominate this game. You all know my thoughts on Solskjaer as a manager. It's only a matter of time before he goes on another poor run and then the inevitable will happen. United haven't kept a clean sheet in league action since their 1-0 win over Leicester back on 14th September. That vulnerable defence could be in for a hiding here. City to win and their fight back to make the title race interesting to continue.
Manchester City HT/FT @ 1.95 with Coral
Manchester City -1 @ 1.87 with SportNation
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Surprised to see Crystal Palace above 3s for the Watford game.  Watford are yet to win at home, and only have the one win all season.  Still no manager either.  Palace are well organised and I think they should be shorter for this game so I see some value in Palace at around 3.2.  I know they have some personnel missing in defence, but they are playing Watford so hardly the most dangerous attacking team!  Palace have also had an extra day of rest for this game.
Going to also tip spurs to win and both teams to score which can be had for 2.9 (coral).  The reasoning being that spurs defence has been struggling, conceding 2 goals in all four games since Mourinho came in.  I'm not entirely confident spurs will win and they are definitely not value at 1.4 to win outright.  However, Burnley have wobbled in their last two games, and defensively seem to be struggling more than normal so if spurs do win I can't see it being to nil the way the team are playing.
And finally, going to give Aston Villa +1 a go at just below evens.  Leicester aren't going to keep winning every game, and I think this is a tough game.  Villa gave Liverpool a good game a couple of weeks back and were unlucky not to draw, and also got a deserved draw at Man U last weekend, though they were poor against Chelsea in midweek.  Leicester were perhaps a bit lucky to beat Everton, and had to rely on a dodgy penalty and 95th minute goal to beat Watford so perhaps there are signs they aren't playing quite as well as results would suggest.  I don't think it would be a surprise if this ended in a draw, or even if Aston Villa were to win, so i'm happy to lay Leicester in this game.

Tuesday night summed up the last 2/3 weeks really as things didn't quite go our way. Barnet had a stinker and Halifax should have won only to lose to a late goal in the end. Hopefully I can end the month on a high though as I have 7 bets including some strong selections among them.
Previews to follow
Barrow v Maidenhead 
I know Maidenhead have one of the best away records in the league, but I think they have been flattered by their good start and they are beginning to find their natural place in the table. Their last 2 away games have seen a draw at Wrexham and a loss at Barnet and that trend is also in their overall form. They have now not won in 5 games and go to a side in Barrow who are flying at the moment. After beating Yeovil in a live game last month they then failed to win in their next 4 games picking up just a point, but they were playing well and only losing games by the odd goal. They have now won their last 4 and they have scored 3 goals in each of their last 3 games. With Maidenhead only keeping 1 clean sheet in their last 9 games then Barrow will surely be adding to their goals total here. They look a big price at 6/4 to win this.
Dover v Halifax
As mentioned above Halifax should have won on Tuesday night, but in the end a late Harrogate goal meant they didn't even end up with a point. They look a big price though to beat a Dover side who have only managed to pick up 5 points from their 6 home games so far this season. That includes draws against struggling Ebbsfleet and Chorley so Halifax should pose a much stiffer test. It is annoying that the only time I have tipped Dover away from home this season was the one time they haven't won on their travels this season, but it is clear that Dover at home and Dover away from home are two very different sides. Halfiax have looked strong away from home and I just can't see how they can be nearly 3/1 to win this as I would have them around the 7/4 mark myself. This game is the live BT Sport one on Saturday teatime.
Billericay v Dorking
Granted it was very poor from Dorking to lose to a side two leagues below them in the FA Cup last Saturday especially given Tooting ended up with 10 men, but this game looks a decent chance to bounce straight back. They have won their last 3 league games and a 3-1 win over Maidstone was a top effort. I suspect everyone reading this knows what has happened at Billericay so I won't go back over it, but they could only manage 5 subs (allowed 7) in their FA Cup game and they only scraped a 1-0 win. One of those subs was new manager Jamie O'Hara who was meant to have retired. More players have left the club this week and although as I type the likes of Jake Robinson are still there, they have been weakened. Dorking are above Billericay in the table as well and we are dealing with a different Billericay from the side who had won 4 of their 5 home league games so far. At over 3/1 the away side seem a sporting play in the circumstances.
Eastbourne v Chelmsford
Two sides who are under performing so far this season especially the away team whose fans aren't happy with the way things have gone. Their away form has been especially bad as they have only picked up 1 point so far in 5 away games The also lost at Corinthian-Casuals in the FA Cup last weekend and they haven't even managed to win a game in the league below. Including that FA Cup game they have conceded twice 3 times and let in 4 twice. Given all that I just can't understand how bookies can make Chelmsford favs to win this. I accept Eastbourne aren't doing great themselves, but they have only lost one of their last 5 league matches and beat Tonbridge in the FA Cup last weekend. They should be favs to win this so 15/8 is well worth taking.
Gloucester City v Guiseley
I am backing my own team again here as I just don't see how they can be 5/2 to win this. Having seen them in the flesh against Kings Lynn two weeks ago I was impressed with what I saw and they were within seconds of being the first team to win at Kings Lynn for a long time. Granted Kings Lynn deserved the point, but Gloucester held their own against a team who have started the season very strongly and look at this stage to be certain to finish in the play-offs. Beating Guiseley won't be easy as they have done well themselves this season, but their only away wins so far have come against two of the worst sides in the league Bradford Park Avenue and Blyth. That points to Gloucester having a decent chance and I would make them a point shorter to win.
Spennymoor v Kidderminster
My strongest bet of the season so far. I know Kiddie have only lost once away this season in the league, but they have had a very kind fixture list so far. They have beaten Bradford, Curzon and Kettering and drew to Blyth. They are currently the bottom 4 clubs in the division. Now Spennymoor are 5th from bottom, but they have clearly been suffering from a play-off final defeat hangover (like Fylde in the league above) and they are much better than a bottom 5 side for me. They have only lost one of their last 6 league games so the signs are there that they will be rising up the table. Kidderminster look a long way from being a side capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season and I would put a lot of money on Spennymoor finishing above them come the end of April. Losing 3-0 at Stafford in the FA Cup replay on Tuesday was another shocker and of course they have had to play an extra game compared to the home side. I am really strong on the home side here and they should be odds on shots in my view.
Buxton v South Shields
I was very surprised to see South Shields at odds against to win this. The title favourites have only lost won game this season and have won all bar one of the others. Compare this to Buxton who have yet to win and have picked up just 3 points in their first 8 games. Odds against looks a steal to be honest and it will be a surprise if this isn't an away win.
Barrow 2pts @ 6/4 with BetVictor
Halifax 1pt @149/50 with Marathon
Dorking 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor
Eastbourne 1pt @ 15/8 with Marathon
Gloucester 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
Spennymoor 4pts @ 61/50 with Marathon
South Shields 3pts @ 59/50 with Marathon

Tuesday night was a big disappointment with most of the teams I put up putting in poor performances. Thankfully my own team stopped it from being a total wipeout as Gloucester came from 2 down to beat Kidderminster 3-2. It was also satisfying because all the Asian money was for the home side and it is always nice to get one over them. Onto this weekend I have 6 bets across the weekend.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Harrogate
Hopefully this will be 3rd time lucky with Harrogate. It is slightly concerning that they haven't scored in either game I have tipped them up in especially as they created enough chances to have done so and they missed a penalty at 0-0 against Notts County on Tuesday night. They did then go down to 10 men as County converted their own penalty. They did though score 5 goals in their first two games so they do have goals in them and hopefully they can score some here. Peter Taylor was not happy after their 3-0 defeat to Boreham Wood on Tuesday and he was almost admitting that maybe he hasn't recruited as well as he could have done. As I touched on in my ante-post preview it seemed like they would have some money to spend over the summer, but although they had more than the summer before it also didn't look like that had a huge amount. That for me has left them lacking and they have pretty young squad. They have lost 3 of their first 4 games and Taylor would be my favourite for the first manager to be sacked in the league. I would have Harrogate as favourites here so Marathon's 15/8 makes plenty of appeal.
Notts County v Wrexham
I considered Dover at home to Torquay, but thought the price was probably about right in the end. Barnet were on the shortlist as well but again they look about the right price to beat Chesterfield, a team who have had a very poor start. In the end the only other bet I am having in the National League takes place on Sunday and yet again I am opposing Notts County. As mentioned above they had a bit of fortune on their side to get their first win at this level on Tuesday and they are far from the finished article. Wrexham looked much better on Tuesday crucially keeping a clean sheet and scoring the winner whilst being down to 10 men. I think Wrexham are just the sort of side County will struggle to beat this season especially at this stage of the campaign and the 21/10 about an away win is too big.
Blyth Spartans v Hereford
I wasn't expecting Hereford to sack their manager when I tipped up AFC Telford to beat them on Tuesday, but it certainly led to a much improved performance as they beat them 1-0. They are going up to Blyth on Saturday who have looked seriously lacking so far in their 3 games. I did put them up at Alfreton last week as they looked over priced, but they were well beaten by Alfreton in the end and not surprisingly struggled against York on Tuesday. If Hereford build on Tuesday night's performance then they ought to be winning this and 6/4 with Marathon looks acceptable.
Chester v Gloucester City
I am putting my own club up again to win on Saturday. As I mentioned in Tuesday's preview Gloucester's away form has been vastly superior to their home form since they have been playing in Evesham. This record has improved even more since Mike Cook took over as manager as the club have won 9 out of 10 away games since he started his reign with the only defeat at Dartford. That's some stat and as mentioned above they did really well to come back from 2 down on Tuesday. Chester have yet to lose, but they have drawn 3 of their opening 4 games and were very lucky to get a point at Kettering on Tuesday where they under-performed again. The managers weren't happy after the game and as I have mentioned before I don't think they are as strong as their ante-post price suggested they were. I think at 7/2 with BetVictor the away side are a sporting play once again to make it 10 out of 11 away wins under Cook.
Curzon Ashton v Kidderminster
I have to take Kiddy on again on Saturday. You shouldn't really be letting 2 goal leads slip and their defending left a lot to be desired especially for City's 2nd goal. As I mentioned in Tuesday's preview the win at Bradford Park Avenue was not likely to be a sign of better things to come and they have conceded 7 goals in their other 3 games. Curzon have made a very good start to the season and although they benefitted from playing BPA first day of the season they got solid draws at Southport and Leamington before a really good win at home to Darlington on Tuesday. They clearly have goals in them and given Kiddy's defence they will more than fancy themselves to get on the scoresheet and that might well be enough. I would certainly have them no bigger than 5/4 to win this so 159/100 looks a good price.
Taunton Town v Chesham United
I'm shocked by Taunton's start to the season. Having pushed Weymouth all the way last term they were fancied to do well again this term and that might still be the case, but it's been a really poor start to their season. Losing 3-0 to well fancied Gosport probably wasn't a total disaster, but losing 4-0 on Wednesday night to a Yate side who had lost 4-1 at home on the opening day certainly was. I'm sure they are going to bounce back at some point, but this is a going to be a really tough test for them. Chesham were one of my ante-post bets for the league and they have had a very good start to the season. They beat ante-post favourites Salisbury 2-0 on Saturday (who beat Gosport themselves on Tuesday night) and then won 3-1 on Tuesday against Beaconsfield. I'm not surprised they hit the ground running and they are worth backing to make it 3/3 against a Taunton side who seem to have a hangover from last season's efforts at the moment.
Harrogate 2pts @ 15/8 with Marathon
Wrexham 1pt @ 21/10 with Marathon
Hereford 1pt @ 6/4 with Marathon
Gloucester 1pt @ 7/2 with BetVictor
Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 159/100 with Marathon
Chesham 1pt @ 161/100 with Marathon

While the championship can be unpredictable I think Blackburn are a shoe in for a win against Charlton. I know you have to factor in the promotion bounce for Charlton but the Blackburn team has experience throughout the team and a lot of players who have played at a higher level. They are the home team, experienced manager and they will score goals today. They also had a good end to last season and have kept the squad together. I will include them with Celtic at home and an easy to double to double your money with a season opener.

Wigan vs Cardiff
Well, what a start to proceedings in the Championship that was tonight. A cracking game and both tips came in. The next preview focuses on my own club Cardiff and our trip to Wigan for this 3pm kick-off at the DW Stadium on Saturday. We're back down in the second tier of English football which is disappointing but it's a strange feeling because most of our fan base are feeling quietly confident we can make a strong title push this season.
Wigan narrowly avoided relegation to League One last season thanks to a late burst of results. Paul Cook is struggling to get given the funds to really push the team on as he'd like. A few shrewd dealings in the transfer market have seen the squad strengthened with the stand-out one being ex-Cardiff keeper David Marshall being snapped up. Other noteworthy additions include Everton's Joe Williams, Portsmouth's Jamal Lowe, and Chelsea's Dujon Sterling. Latics fans have every reason to feel they can fight for a solid mid-table position this term.
Cardiff fans are chirping about what is being seen as a great transfer window. What began as a very negative one with the free transfer departure of Aron Gunnarsson plus the returns to loanees Victor Camarasa and Harry Arter was made worse with the exits of Bruno Ecuele Manga and Kenneth Zohore. However, Neil Warnock and his team have moved fast to bring in a swathe of new signings including Will Vaulks from Rotherham, Aden Flint from Middlesbrough, Gavin Whyte and Curtis Nelson from Oxford, and Robert Glatzel from Heidenheim.
The old saying goes that there are no easy games in the Championship. This group of Cardiff players have the experience to know that well. The crux of the team that nearly stayed up in the Premier League remains but the additions of proper Football League workhorses means the squad has the right mix of talent and work rate. Wigan will relish this game. A fresh start after last season's strife. I'm actually worried we might be held to a draw here. Glatzel is ruled out so that leaves us without an out and out striker with Bobby Reid playing more of a second striker role in pre-season. I still think we can grind out a win but it'll be hard going.
Cardiff to Win @ 2.55 with Betfred
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.80 with Betfair

I´m also on backing the Both2Score for today. But i´m also on Team Goals for Luton. Here i think Luton Team Goals Over 1.5 are a nice bet. Luton offensive very strong and didn´t lose any important offensive Player. Also with the New Coach i didn´t think that they will change too much. So first Game for Luton since 12 Years in Championship at Home against such a big Club on Paper. Motivation will be big and i think that can help Luton today.

That name seems familiar....the Woodgate that go to play for Real Madrid??...Yes it is...?  when healthy he played well, sadly most of the time of his time there he was injured. I would never have figured he would end up as manager, never saw much of a character from him at Real Madrid, at least he got the help of Robbie Keane, who if I do not remember wrong does have a temper. An interesting experiment in Middlesbrough.