liquidglass

I do not think this should have anything to do with a week before a slam. In my opinion Fognini has nothing to aim for within the context of a slam. Tennis for him now should just be about trying to earn a living without ambitions. Even without the slam and tanking factor, this really is a losable match for Fognini against a young player in potent form. Rubin should win a set at minimum asking!

Jared Donaldson (+1.5 sets) to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 1.71 with Pinnacle
Going to oppose Wawrinka, he really has been dreadful so far in this season. Donaldson had a nice comeback against Istomin in the first round, seemed to like the conditions, should be competitive.
 

Agreed that Zhang is playing awful as you point out. But fanny in terms of progressive tennis is not the kind of player that you should be putting safe bets against especially in her current form. She is a real talent with a big future well capable of ruffling a few feathers amidst mixing with the elite of the sport.

Caroline Garcia vs Kiki Bertens
A lot has already been written about this match that it is one of the most anticipated of the day. Both players are in good form but I would think on different levels. Kiki bertens is a beast on red clay and does a good job of rubbishing her overall ranking of 20. She is so Rafalike on this surface and should really be hard to beat.
Garcia's game is predicated upon  methodological implementation and precision. The serve will have to gel with the extra kick to produce the desired effect most times for easy put aways. Garcia can only win in straight sets in my opinion. Any attempt to stand toe to toe with the beast will surely bring about a detrimental effect. I see Bertens reigning supreme with those dutch-made heavy shots. This match clearly has all the traits of under 21.5 games. Good luck all!

Edmund vs Shapovalov - ATP Madrid
I really think the bookies have this wrong. yes edmund beat Djock (nowhere near his best) and Goffin (still hampered with eye injury) but shapovalov was sensational yesterday and I'm backing him @ 2.81 with Pinnacle.
and -1.5 sets @ 5.09 with Pinnacle.
good luck all 

hehehe! I really got it wrong and thought we had a tennis problem here, but I now see it very much looks like an english problem. You have just answered the question that has been posing us the problem in your words    No the match could only go one way, either under 20 games or over 19. meaning as was said it could go either way whether in games or in outright win..

firstly, you never know the true position with these injury situations as it has now become a financial and tactical part of tennis. Raonic was slightly shortened this morning which would seem a plus. On the whole in my opinion it would have to take a specialist grinder in the Bautista range to bet against a serving monster like Raonic at this sort of tentative stage. Even that still requires luck.

firstly, you never know the true position with these injury situations as it has now become a financial and tactical part of tennis. Raonic was slightly shortened this morning which would seem a plus. On the whole in my opinion it would have to take a specialist grinder in the Bautista range to bet against a serving monster like Raonic at this sort of tentative stage. Even that still requires luck.

I'd say that this is way too many bets, but then again, I always say that. Also, sticking the same matches on multiple parlays isn't exactly best practice imo.

This is the cold chill of deceptive reality that the game carries along with it; a kind of calculated and sinister madate that everyone is governed by however clever we may think we are. It is no secret that 95% of parlays most times and every time lose out by one. (Somewhat of a demonic code factored in) I can lecture on this for hours on end without the person even coming close to comprehending the basis on which this intricate subject matter is predicated upon. I call it the biggest fraud of all time ever known ....or in this case not known to man.
Simply put, any result that is 1 away, is default and normal no matter what it turns out to be. 12 out of 13, 24 out of 25 etc. I regard it as originating from this sinister mandate. The code was designed by forces unknown to induce "deeper involvement"(The notion that you will be encouraged to try harder knowing that you were only one away. In reality you are light years away.) It is the reason why I would consider a person who got 4 or 5 from 7 as a much better result than one who gets 20 out of 21. Still, in plain visible terms, good result!

If you want a straight answer without me having to really think deep, not all those favs can win for sure. They all look beatable at first glance. Tsitsipas might just be running on reserve at 3/10(The danger odd) Kvitova could be anything but genuine. Zhang looks quite playable on the handicaps. Edmund? In no man's land. Could be on generic form as he did last week before imploding. Chung although fresh to the clay should have enough in hand to beat Klizan. Might shed some more light on a couple of them again just before play!!

If you want a straight answer without me having to really think deep, not all those favs can win for sure. They all look beatable at first glance. Tsitsipas might just be running on reserve at 3/10(The danger odd) Kvitova could be anything but genuine. Zhang looks quite playable on the handicaps. Edmund? In no man's land. Could be on generic form as he did last week before imploding. Chung although fresh to the clay should have enough in hand to beat Klizan. Might shed some more light on a couple of them again just before play!!

what are peoples thoughts on these plays?
BASHILASIVI VS CHARDY 
Over 22 Games
- Both players are extremely erratic and the majority of their matches feature numerous momentum swings. This is enhanced further on clay as points are longer.
- Both players enjoy playing on clay where their topspin heavy games can thrive. They both prefer a high bouncing ball and scramble & slide well on the surface
- Basilashvili has found some form after a dreadful start to the season, he's reached three consecutive quarter-finals on the clay, two at ATP World Tour level
- Chardy plays a very aggressive gamestyle and he will go through 'hot & cold' periods during the match. Serving out sets/the match won't be easy, leaving more room for the Over to cash
- Don't trust either of these players to win convincingly with their poor record of closing out matches. Over 22 Games
MASUR VS STRUFF
Masur +4.5 Games
- These two met at this event last year with Struff prevailing 6-3/6-4. Masur's development has increased significantly in the 12 months since.
- Masur defeated Rublev & Krajinovic on the clay last year and his form has been slowly returning after missing the early stages of 2018 with an injury
- He comes in after beating Vatutin & Gombos in qualifying, both wins coming in a deciding third set so he will be match tight & surface warm
- Struff is just 7-11 in 2018 and fell apart against Cecchinato in Budapest last week. His gamestyle is erratic and he can't be trusted to play consistently for a whole match
- Masur will be highly motivated having come through qualies, take him to cover the game spread against a mentally weak opponent. 

RAFAEL NADAL VS MARTIN KLIZAN
This really looks and feels like a mouth watering prospect despite what the odd makers have put forward. Head to Head comparison reads Nadal 2-1(Nadal winnning 3-1 on clay 2013, 3-1 on grass 2014, and Klizan winning 2-1 on hard 2014.. Nadal born 1986 and Klizan born 1989. Whilst a credible arguement can be tendered that the matches were played so long ago, there is nothing to suggest that Nadal would have improved a lot more over klizan since that time considering their ages.
Nadal's power over the enemy has always come from the difficulty in the matchup stemming from the heavy topspins generated from his forearm into the backhand corner of his opponent. In this case Klizan is left-handed and from the record from previous matchups, has a game that suits the playing style of Nadal. Furthermore, Klizan has never failed to win a set in any of those meetings.
I think the bookies are really carried away here with the way they have set these ridiculous odds.....or maybe they are not, knowing that there will still be a lot of gutless turds who would back Nadal silly in this match up. The end result is a plethora of bets that can be taken in this game enroute to victory. I have chosen what I first saw as a real gift. Total games over 17.5 evens @ paddypower. Now that's my idea of a no brainer!!! Good luck all!! 
N.B Also seriously consider klizan winning a set

true feels like Klizan was on over 17.5 as well

Or, well, you could say that it was unlucky that he didn't win a set. 

RAFAEL NADAL VS MARTIN KLIZAN
This really looks and feels like a mouth watering prospect despite what the odd makers have put forward. Head to Head comparison reads Nadal 2-1(Nadal winnning 3-1 on clay 2013, 3-1 on grass 2014, and Klizan winning 2-1 on hard 2014.. Nadal born 1986 and Klizan born 1989. Whilst a credible arguement can be tendered that the matches were played so long ago, there is nothing to suggest that Nadal would have improved a lot more over klizan since that time considering their ages.
Nadal's power over the enemy has always come from the difficulty in the matchup stemming from the heavy topspins generated from his forearm into the backhand corner of his opponent. In this case Klizan is left-handed and from the record from previous matchups, has a game that suits the playing style of Nadal. Furthermore, Klizan has never failed to win a set in any of those meetings.
I think the bookies are really carried away here with the way they have set these ridiculous odds.....or maybe they are not, knowing that there will still be a lot of gutless turds who would back Nadal silly in this match up. The end result is a plethora of bets that can be taken in this game enroute to victory. I have chosen what I first saw as a real gift. Total games over 17.5 evens @ paddypower. Now that's my idea of a no brainer!!! Good luck all!! 
N.B Also seriously consider klizan winning a set

You read me like an open book.

Nadal vs Nishikori
Nadal leads 9-2 in H2H and has shown that he is in supreme form. Nishikori on the other hand plays on clay very well and has a game to be competitive to an extent with Nadal on this surface.  There is no doubt in my mind that Nadal will win this encounter, the question is by how much?
Nishikori has already been on court twice as long as Nadal and should have problems againt the bullish and aggressive physical game of Nadal. However, I believe that Nishikori who can compete well against Nadal, should get past 6 games before fatigue sets in. Good luck all!

So you're saying that he tanked his first ever ATP final in order to be fresh for a R1 Masters match?

Renata Zarazua to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova at 3.00 with Bet365
With so much rain around, I wouldn't be surprised to see the more local of players being more focused. Besides, Zarazua has some really good scalps from recent times, so I'm not sure what makes her a 3.00 underdog against a player that's been incredibly up-and-down recently.

Yes I noticed that Ahouda also beat him in that same DC tie. Anyway odds on Nikoloz have gone up since I posted Lamine to win and the odds on a player ranked below top 600 as low as 2.50 just says he still has got a good chance to beat Nikoloz again. Lightning often strikes down on the same place in tennis and this might be a prime example of that. Another is Laura Siegemunds two wins over Simona Halep in Stuttgart. She twice defeated Simona in straight sets once in 2016 and in 2017.

Sorely tempted by some sort of plus on Ahouda against Ramos. Young home player who scored a shock win at this tournament last year over Marcel Granollers, against Ramos who didn't exactly pull up any trees during the South American clay court swing and who might not be all that motivated in what is a minor tournament compared to the bigger clay court tournaments in Italy and Spain that follow in the next few weeks.
+7.5 games for Ahouda at 2.10 and Ahouda to win a set at 8.50 both at Betfair Sportsbook look worth chancing to me. I'd even consider a small stake on Ahouda to win if I could get at least 30 on the exchanges.

I hear what you say about Linette and I think you make a valid point there. Linette last three matches played very well against Collins losing in three tight sets. Sasnovich again three tight sets and seemed to have completely lost it against Risk as she was completely pulverized. Was Liu not the junior french open runner up last year? Hmmmm! I still think it is way too early to figure out whether she actually has the Collins/Anisimova potential as players can sometimes develop late. Liu is still only 17.  A quick look at her 2017 record on clay indicates that she is more than capable of the upset. Having played 2 games in the qualifiers, I really believe that she will play very well. May not win in the end but clearly an upset alert here!!!

Magda Linette to beat Claire Liu at 1.86 with Marathonbet
Linette needs to start winning somewhere and I don't see why it shouldn't be here against a player of Liu's caliber. Importantly, she has played in Charleston before, so she shouldn't be too unfamiliar with the conditions. Liu doesn't have the Collins/Anisimova level of talent imo.
Heather Watson to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.76 with Unibet
Same arguments as for the Boulter-Townsend match. Watson is capable of defending well, so she should have the upper hand every single time the rally gets long, which should be more often than not given the conditions. It's not even that surprising that Townsend has a 1-3 record in Charleston.