CzechPunter Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 5, 2018 Author Share Posted May 5, 2018 Daniil Medvedev (+1.5 sets) to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.92 with Pinnacle Edmund looks a bit overrated to me here. Neither guy is a natural clay courter and I really can't see what makes Edmund a 1.40 favourite here. His run in Marrakech I guess, but I'd say that the value is fully with the Russian youngster here, either on the match line or the set handicap. yogg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KennyDelight Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Sam Stosur 2.63 v Sloane Stephens Bet365 Stosur has a semi final and 2 ro16 finishes in the last 3 years in Madrid. This is probably her favourite surface. A 2-0 head to head record v Stephens on clay. Slower conditions would favor Stosur over Stephens and the variety will see her through I don't see any motivation for Stephens on clay outside of Fed Cup. Happy to back the bookies underdog against Stephens yogg and CzechPunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogg Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) Wozniacki vs Barty - WTA Madrid Barty has an excellent service game which I'm hoping will take her to a tie break at some stage today. tie break in 1st set @ 6.00 with Bet365 tie break in match @ 3.40 with Bet365 good luck to all. Edited May 8, 2018 by yogg Lost - close but wasn't to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_African_Punter Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) First post here... been browsing for a few months! Yogg - I followed some of your picks from last week -- very good. Do you have any ATP picks for today? Think Nishikori @ 2.5 might be good value against a very out of form Djokovic. Edited May 7, 2018 by South_African_Punter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogg Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 hey Czech, do you think it may be worth taking on a not match fit Raonic today somehow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidglass Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, yogg said: hey Czech, do you think it may be worth taking on a not match fit Raonic today somehow? It is always never a good idea to take on big servers like Raonic Isner and Karlovic for early upsets on any surface even if they are running on bad form because they could just end up outserving the opponent and messing up your day. Raonic's form is not that questionable as to think of considering victory in favour of Kicker. What I think is a solid bet is Raonic over 12.5 games 4/6 . He should be able to find a way past Kicker with Dimitrov next in line. Good luck. Edited May 7, 2018 by liquidglass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogg Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, liquidglass said: It is always never a good idea to take on big servers like Raonic Isner and Karlovic on any surface even if they are running on bad form because they could just end up outserving the opponent and messing up your day. Raonic's form is not that questionable as to think of considering victory in favour of Kicker. What I think is a solid bet is Raonic over 12.5 games 4/6 . He should be able to find a way past Kicker with Dimitrov next in line. Good luck. yeah his form ain't too bad but I was thinking more of his knee injury 18 days ago and he hasn't played since. I guess he's got enough class to pull him thru' though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidglass Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, yogg said: yeah his form ain't too bad but I was thinking more of his knee injury 18 days ago and he hasn't played since. I guess he's got enough class to pull him thru' though. firstly, you never know the true position with these injury situations as it has now become a financial and tactical part of tennis. Raonic was slightly shortened this morning which would seem a plus. On the whole in my opinion it would have to take a specialist grinder in the Bautista range to bet against a serving monster like Raonic at this sort of tentative stage. Even that still requires luck. Edited May 7, 2018 by liquidglass MABS and yogg 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MABS Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Great reading you writeups! Just decided on Arnaboldi, Italian playing at home vs better ranked opponent who didnt play much on clay, and Delbonis 2:0 just better player at this time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MABS Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Poor play on my part, forgot how erratic Delbonis is, never will be a player if keeps that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 Sorry guys for not answering today, even I have to be away every now and then . And welcome to the forum @South_African_Punter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Pablo Andujar Alba to beat (-1.5 sets) Feliciano Lopez at 2.75 with Paddypower Feliciano preparing for life after tour with tournament director duties in Madrid this week. Pablo at his best right now despite losing in qualies of Barcelona to Bjorn Fratangelo which I anyway see as maybe a tactical play by Pablo if he knew he was anyway going to get in to main draw of Barcelona as lucky loser because he beat Bjorn Fratangelo rather easily as lucky loser in first round. Pablo have faced Feliciano twice and beaten him in straight sets on clay in Barcelona 2015 and took Feliciano to 5 sets in US open. I think we might see Pablo having a good day in Madrid. Victoria Azarenka to beat (-1.5 sets) Karolina Pliskova at 3.20 with Paddypower Victoria is the better claycourter of these two and will probably put Karolina under a lot of pressure on her on serve despite her serve being as big as it is but that doesn't matter as mutch on clay and Victoria has a superb return also and a good serve that seems to be clicking right now. And motivation should not be a problem since she is ranked 98 and needs a good tournament somewhere and why not start in Madrid. 3-1 to Victoria in the head to head also and she beat Karolina in Miami in straight sets this season. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogg Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 11 hours ago, South_African_Punter said: First post here... been browsing for a few months! Yogg - I followed some of your picks from last week -- very good. Do you have any ATP picks for today? Think Nishikori @ 2.5 might be good value against a very out of form Djokovic. sorry man, couldn't find any value today. i thought nishi v djok could go either way so i left that one alone. my tip today came very close (but no cigar) in the 2nd and 3rd sets but it wasn't to be. good to have you here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_African_Punter Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 2 hours ago, yogg said: sorry man, couldn't find any value today. i thought nishi v djok could go either way so i left that one alone. my tip today came very close (but no cigar) in the 2nd and 3rd sets but it wasn't to be. good to have you here. Haha no problem. Fortunately I left that bet. I just avoid women's tennis because it is so damn unpredictable, at least in my betting experience! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pvaas Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 On 5/5/2018 at 3:09 PM, CzechPunter said: Daniil Medvedev (+1.5 sets) to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.92 with Pinnacle Edmund looks a bit overrated to me here. Neither guy is a natural clay courter and I really can't see what makes Edmund a 1.40 favourite here. His run in Marrakech I guess, but I'd say that the value is fully with the Russian youngster here, either on the match line or the set handicap. my book doesn't offer set handicaps....they offer games though...maybe +4 medvedev ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogg Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 (edited) Kohlschreiber to beat Sugita 2-0 Kvitova to beat Puig 2-0 double @ 2.42 with Bet365 WON!!! Edited May 8, 2018 by yogg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pvaas Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 thoughts on these plays guys donskoy +4.5 -138 Kholscribier 2-0 sets -200 Cuevas -1.5 games -120 Medvedev +3.5 -120 Dimitrov -1.5 games -120 write up on dimitrov raonic Raonic is still returning from injury and while he's making significant improvements he's still playing on his least favorite surface and had to withdraw from his 3rd round match in Monte Carlo three weeks ago. - Dimitrov carried a slight shoulder injury into Barcelona but he's had two weeks to recover and these conditions will suit, the ball moving quicker through the air due to altitude - Dimitrov has struggled on the dirt in the past but he's made huge progress in 2018, looking more confident on the clay. His movement and footwork are excellent. - Dimitrov owns a 3-1 record in the head-to-head but this will be the 1st meeting on clay (2009 meeting was at Futures level, not relevant now). The edge is with Dimitrov here, he scrambles and slides into shots brilliantly and his transition from defense to attack is far better than Raonic's on the clay. Expect a comfortable victory. Dimitrov Moneyline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogg Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 (edited) Kvitova vs Puig - WTA Madrid under 19.5 games @ 2.00 with Bet365 good luck all. Edited May 8, 2018 by yogg Lost - played rubbish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogg Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, pvaas said: thoughts on these plays guys donskoy +4.5 -138 Kholscribier 2-0 sets -200 Cuevas -1.5 games -120 Medvedev +3.5 -120 Dimitrov -1.5 games -120 write up on dimitrov raonic Raonic is still returning from injury and while he's making significant improvements he's still playing on his least favorite surface and had to withdraw from his 3rd round match in Monte Carlo three weeks ago. - Dimitrov carried a slight shoulder injury into Barcelona but he's had two weeks to recover and these conditions will suit, the ball moving quicker through the air due to altitude - Dimitrov has struggled on the dirt in the past but he's made huge progress in 2018, looking more confident on the clay. His movement and footwork are excellent. - Dimitrov owns a 3-1 record in the head-to-head but this will be the 1st meeting on clay (2009 meeting was at Futures level, not relevant now). The edge is with Dimitrov here, he scrambles and slides into shots brilliantly and his transition from defense to attack is far better than Raonic's on the clay. Expect a comfortable victory. Dimitrov Moneyline hi pvaas. excuse my ignorance but can you explain the figures on the right of your selections please. ie: 138 - 200 - 120 - 120 - 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 8, 2018 Author Share Posted May 8, 2018 @pvaas I specifically left that out, because I see many scenarios in which the set handicap comes in and the games handicap doesn't. It can happen the other way around as well, of course, but not that often imo. @yogg https://www.punterslounge.com/odds-converter, those are American odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yogg Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, CzechPunter said: @yogg https://www.punterslounge.com/odds-converter, those are American odds. cheers CP Edited May 8, 2018 by yogg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPrincipito007 Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Harrison @2,55 (Marathonbet) Not in great form, but the H2H against Garcia-Lopez (5-0) is too good to let it pass. yogg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinningTipster Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 1 pick for ATP Challenger Aix en Provence MILLMAN POPYRIN 2-0 SETS @ 1.9 betfair-sportsbook Millman with good solid game for clay courts and good recent form on clay. Popyrin is erratic and inconsistent. Expect him to make many unforced errors in this match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidglass Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 59 minutes ago, ElPrincipito007 said: Harrison @2,55 (Marathonbet) Not in great form, but the H2H against Garcia-Lopez (5-0) is too good to let it pass. Very true.....the problem with it is that it appears too true. I strongly believe that there is a greater chance of Garcia-Lopez winning his first game than for Harrison to keep the winning streak going especially with home advantage for the first time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 8, 2018 Author Share Posted May 8, 2018 Caroline Garcia to beat Julia Goerges at 1.80 with Paddy Power Karolina Pliskova to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.80 with William Hill Two big hitters against two big hitters, but I believe that Garcia and Pliskova have a bit more finesse on clay than their opponents. You may laugh at me saying that Pliskova has more finesse than someone else, but yeah, in comparison to Stephens, definitely. Meanwhile, Goerges is just shambolic all the time and hasn't looked great since that painful loss in Charleston. erny86, WaveRunner and yogg 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidglass Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Medvedev real shitty performance! He should be home watching TV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 8, 2018 Author Share Posted May 8, 2018 Pretty much a carbon copy of his match against Nishikori. Missing a lot of BPs then falling apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidglass Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 He cannot even cover a 5.5 games start and makes me lose £286.00. If i was ahead and needed Edmund, the mug would retire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidglass Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Edmund another shitty player. Inconsistent as a dice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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