four-leaf

Ashleigh Barty (-1.5 sets) to beat Peng Shuai for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Bet365
Ash is playing great right now, she's having an average of 70% win on first serve and average 50% on second serve. Grass is really a surface that suites her. What does worry me here is the playing quality of Peng Shuai as she is good enough to take a set, she's a good player coming back from injury but I think she'll have big problems with that first serve of Ash just like Tamira Paszek and Alison Riske had. Alison managed to win by 7-6 7-5 and it all comes down to Ash first serve as the reason why it went so tight. Also it was awhile since Peng played on grass so it will take her some time to get into it and Ash is already into the surface so I'll take my chances with Ash to win in two.

Bedene is doing some great serving. He's bombing down ace after ace. I did'nt know he had such a great serve. His serve is very suitable for grass.
Edit: There has'nt been any slow start for Bedene so I wonder how the match will end or wonder how the first set will end except that it will end in a tie-break.
Edit 2: Double fault on setpoint for Bedene in own serve seals the deal. He can serve Ernesto there's no question about that but his lack of routine made him lose the first set. Quite typical for a player of his age and ranking. Eventually Ernesto will start to miss more in the rallies and it will probably cost him the match. If Ernesto now comes back into the match and wins it I will be very surprised since Bedene is in control.

Ashleigh Barty is quite a good player even if only ranked 623 right now but most of you who know about her should be aware of her doubles titles and finals when she was just 17-18 years old. She just decided to quit playing tennis for awhile and playing professional cricket instead. Then last year she changed her mind and thought "maybe I should be playing tennis after all?". Not to late for changing her mind since she's still only 20 now. Her comeback is working well and I bet she will win her first match in Nottingham too since she will face Peng Shuai, Monica Puig, Kurumi Nara or Donna Vekic. All four at beatable players for such a good grassplayer like Ashleigh. Maybe Donna would be the most dangerous one for Ashleigh to face since she's ready for the grass after playing three matches in Eastbourne losing to Tara Moore in the quarters who is playing quite good grasstennis right now. Anyway I hope Ashleigh faces either Kurumi or Monica since both are just coming from clay and have no matchpractice on grass.

Ashleigh Barty (-1.5 sets) to beat Tamira Paszek for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddypower
Ashleigh just beat Tamira in straight sets last week in Eastbourne and now she's still playing better tennis then Tamira. Yesterday Tamira was struggling to beat Gabriela Dabrowski, she had some real troubles to win that match although it was never any danger but she did'nt play very well. Ashleigh herself had no troubles winning against Paula Cristina Goncalves although she faced 2 breakpoints when she was serving for the match. Still her first serve percentage was never lower then 70% and that's a great statistic compared to Tamira who was down on 40% in the first set playing completely awful. I think history may repeat itself today with Ashleigh again winning in straight sets.
Edit: Acctually Tamira only held serve once during the third set against Gabriela who was ranked 468 yesterday and now 528. Not good, Tamira will have to serve better today if she's supposed to have any chance of taking a set off Ashleigh.

I may be back with outrights later, but for now this is what I have for the matches being played tomorrow.
Paul-Henri Mathieu to beat Rajeev Ram @ 2.19 Marathonbet (1 pt)
This looks like it could go either way to me, so odds against on Mathieu is where my money's going. Despite the French veteran being in the autumn of his career his ranking has improved in recent times, and he has an all-court game which means the transition to grass shouldn't be as difficult for him as it is for some other players. Ram has some pedigree on grass and has won titles on the surface in the United States, although it's fair to say that grass court conditions there are different to those found in Europe, but even so I don't think he will hold any fears for Mathieu.
Ernesto Escobedo to beat Aljaz Bedene @ 3.80 Marathonbet (1 pt)
I've looked at this a few times now and I think it could be worth backing Escobedo. The young American has had a couple of handy wins in qualifying and Bedene is coming here after an emotionally draining run at the French Open. He's had plenty of time to rest, but grass isn't his favourite surface and a slow start could give Escobedo a platform to get what would be a surprise win.
Jordi Samper-Montana to beat Ze Zhang @ 1.66 Bet365 (1 pt)
I'd have Samper-Montana shorter than this, as the Spaniard is a good clay-courter at Challenger level whereas Zhang has hardly played on the surface recently. Samper-Montana underwhelmed in the French Open after coming through qualifying, and this is an ideal opportunity to get back on track against a player whose last match was on a hard court in Bangkok.

Denis Kudla (-1.5 sets) to beat Dusan Lajovic for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Saw Kudla playing against Yen-Hsun Lu in Manchester and the guy has a great game for grass and if his first serve is working Dusan wont have a chance here. A small problem would be that Kudla may have a low percentage of wins on second serve so if he misses the first serve his opponents get a good chance to win the point like against Yen-Hsun Lu. When Kudla started to miss his first serve he was in trouble. But hopefully that wont happen against Dusan who is not even near as good as Yen-Hsun on grass.
Marcos Baghdatis (-1.5 sets) to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
One of the best grassplayers outthere in his first match on the surface against an inferior opponent in Jan-Lennard Struff who just lost the final in Fürth on clay in straight sets. Seeing how he lost that final in straight sets does'nt inspire confidence to see him taking a set in this match since he'll have to quickly adapt to grass which I suspect he will have problems doing. Facing Baghdatis in your first match in a grass tournament is not ideal if you lack practice on the surface.
Alison Riske (-1.5 sets) to beat Mona Barthel for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Bet365
Alison just won the ITF tournament in Eastbourne on grass and comes to Nottingham fully prepared. That's nothing you can say Mona has even if she's had some time to train on grass after she went out early in RG at the hands of Irina Falconi. Head to head reads 1-0 Alison after an easy straight sets win in the US open 2013. With these circumstances I have to take Alison to win in two.
 
Got to try these three since I think they should have a reasonable chance of all coming in.

Copa America: Brazil - Ecuador

Ecuador made a really solid start to World Cup qualifying and ended 2015 on fire, but recent form has tailed off and they conceded two at home to Paraguay and three away to Colombia and are meeting a team they have a bit of an inferiority complex against. They also play with two holding players, but in their case this is so that the full backs can press on and they will be looking to exploit both flanks and get as many balls into the box as possible. They have goals in them, but the defence is a weakness and the central defenders go missing at times and are quite frankly a liability, witness the recent games with Colombia and expecially the two goals conceded against Paraguay .

No Neymar for Brazil, but after the failure last year and World Cup debacle, they could do with a good Copa, they won and conceded in both opening games in those tournaments and I see this playing out similarly, both scoring and probably a Brazil win. This version of the amba Boys are inexperienced and like Ecuador, the central pairing in the absence of Silva and Luiz are vulnerable and will be dealing with a lot of crosses in this game.

over 2.5 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket
 

Back Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic for a 1/10 stake at 3.60 with BetVictor
Not taking anything myself, as I still have the pre-tournament outright on Murray in play, but I think that the Scot is worth a shot at 3.60 if you're looking for a bet. Djokovic is the favourite, but the pressure will be immense and the gap between the two isn't as big as the odds suggest.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/4rEINL

Back Garbine Muguruza to beat Serena Williams for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Unibet
The more in-form player for me here ;). Williams hasn't really impressed recently, Putintseva and Bertens just didn't have the nerves to win, but Muguruza should given that she's beaten Serena in this very tournament before.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/WyJ94d

Day fourteen
Serena Williams vs Garbine Muguruza
Muguruza  to win 11/8 paddy power
Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power
Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power
This match is going to be the toughest match for Serena as her opponent is playing great tennis and is getting close to winning a grand slam. Serena has not has the easiest of routes to final and could have got knocked out in quarters but managed to come through, but her opponent now is a better player from last year and match that Serena does not like because of her style plus she wont be so nervous as she has already reached a Grand slam final
 
Mens Doubles Final
Feliciano Lopez and Mark Lopez vs Bob Bryan and Mike Bryan
Over 22.5 games evens paddy power
Well the Bryan brothers are favourites here but Lopez and Lopez are a tough doubles team and wont make it easy for them

Serena vs Muguruza -  Hmmm! Even before the 2016 French Open was conceived, before Muguruza found any sort of form or fluke, she was always on my mind to win this for some reason. And now just like Wawrinka before her, she has now been called upon to authenticate her form which really is, and has been nothing extraordinarily special. Kuznetsova and Stosur although decent players, now belong to a Static bunch of players, who in all fairness make it very difficult to put an accurate gauge on Muguruzas current level. Muguruza got out of jail against Schmieldova, a player without current form but certainly with the best potential of the beaten bunch. Muguruza also struggled and just rolled over the winning line against Rogers. My one worry is that Serena has not been playing well which speaks in favour of Serena. However Muguruza is way too short to suggest a piss-take by the bookies for callous pricing. Her price is such that it could somehow cause Serena to roar to victory.Yes, Muguruza has beaten Serena before, but not because it was clay or because of some sort of strong pointer we can now lean on for direction. Muguruza just won that match catching Serena cold. Simple! When I think of the way Serenas career will end, I get a similar picture to Federer and Tyson. They all decayed mentally albeit their bodies being in prime shape.  Last year Serena in a similar modus operandi to this cocooned the atmosphere with a veiled expression of hopelessness in the way of vomiting her way to victory. It would appear quite similar here with rumours of her carrying an injury. Regardless of all the factors mentioned, Serena now attempts to achieve a feat perceptively more important than the first grand slam she ever won, of course with the added pressure of facing a Spanish terrier intent on keeping her on the back foot for the duration of play. Muguruza has peaked at the right time and I think any rendition of a hoodini escape for Serena is unlikely. Muguruza to lift the title in a match that might fall way short of quality and razzmatazz!!! Good Luck

Garbiñe Muguruza/Samantha Stosur over 21.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddypower
Saw the last matches of both players and they where really convincing both of them. Garbiñe did well to overcome that great serving from Shelby Rogers and Samantha also did well to overcome any challenge put up by Tsvetana Pironkova. I'm looking forward to seeing this match and they have met once before and it went to 3 sets on the clay of Madrid 2014. Now it's a semifinal of a grand slam we're talking about here and I think it's safe to say that none of these players will go down easily in this match.

After Albert broke serve to 2-1 in first set I placed a bet on Albert. Milos does'nt look to great on clay no matter if he's got problems with his leg or not but it may have some impact. Thanks for the tip!

Worth noting - Raonic was having issues with his leg (again) after his match against Martin. If you want to back him, it's worth waiting for the live betting and see if he's okay.

Damn you Ana Ivanovic, I hate these unexpected results

Richard Gasquet (+3.5) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 7/10 stake at 1.98 with Pinnacle
The head to head is something to mention as it's 6-2 in favor of Richard and he's lost the last two on clay in straight sets just before RG. Seems like Kei is the better player of the two on clay but on all other surfaces Richard has won and the meeting in Paris masters last season I don't count. I know this is a big risk but I'm willing to take it since Richard has been playing the better tennis so far this tournament. He's capable of playing great tennis on clay and this will most likely be a close match so I rather go with the underdog handicap price then anything else.
Monica Puig to beat Madison Keys for a 7/10 stake at 3.32 with Pinnacle
Monica has beaten Madison twice on clay in straight sets and once in her only title run in Strasbourg 2014 in the semis. This looks like a match where Monica will once again be the better player on this specific surface. Acctually one stat that I feel like I have to point out is the fact that Madison has made 36 unforced errors so far in her two matches in RG and still she's won it by 6-3 6-2 both times probably because she's faced the right opposition that has not been able to punish her for all the errors. She also has come up with 49 winners and all this with many unforced errors and winners is so typical for Madison. It's her style and it does'nt work when playing on clay against such a good clay player like Monica. 36 unforced errors is a lot when you win two matches by 6-3 6-2 and that's something Monica can take advantage of.
Dominika Cibulkova to beat Carla Suárez Navarro for a 7/10 stake at 2.42 with Pinnacle
Seems like Dominika is back at her best again. She's been doing good work so far this season working her way back up the rankings and I see no reason why she can't be able to beat Carla again. The head to head is 3-1 in favor of Dominika with all the meetings happening in 2014 and 2015 on hard and Carla won last time in Moscow but Dominika plays better now then she did at that time in Moscow. I think it's time for Dominika to go deep in a slam again and by that I mean her chances of reaching the RG quarters since after this match she's up against either Yulia Putintseva or Karin Knapp and in the quarters most likely Serena. Go Dominika! If it's anything to go by Dominika has made a little fewer unforced errors then Carla comparing them by their two matches played so far and the one who wins this is the player who manages two keep their unforced errors to a minimum.

Richard Gasquet (+3.5) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 7/10 stake at 1.98 with Pinnacle
The head to head is something to mention as it's 6-2 in favor of Richard and he's lost the last two on clay in straight sets just before RG. Seems like Kei is the better player of the two on clay but on all other surfaces Richard has won and the meeting in Paris masters last season I don't count. I know this is a big risk but I'm willing to take it since Richard has been playing the better tennis so far this tournament. He's capable of playing great tennis on clay and this will most likely be a close match so I rather go with the underdog handicap price then anything else.
Monica Puig to beat Madison Keys for a 7/10 stake at 3.32 with Pinnacle
Monica has beaten Madison twice on clay in straight sets and once in her only title run in Strasbourg 2014 in the semis. This looks like a match where Monica will once again be the better player on this specific surface. Acctually one stat that I feel like I have to point out is the fact that Madison has made 36 unforced errors so far in her two matches in RG and still she's won it by 6-3 6-2 both times probably because she's faced the right opposition that has not been able to punish her for all the errors. She also has come up with 49 winners and all this with many unforced errors and winners is so typical for Madison. It's her style and it does'nt work when playing on clay against such a good clay player like Monica. 36 unforced errors is a lot when you win two matches by 6-3 6-2 and that's something Monica can take advantage of.
Dominika Cibulkova to beat Carla Suárez Navarro for a 7/10 stake at 2.42 with Pinnacle
Seems like Dominika is back at her best again. She's been doing good work so far this season working her way back up the rankings and I see no reason why she can't be able to beat Carla again. The head to head is 3-1 in favor of Dominika with all the meetings happening in 2014 and 2015 on hard and Carla won last time in Moscow but Dominika plays better now then she did at that time in Moscow. I think it's time for Dominika to go deep in a slam again and by that I mean her chances of reaching the RG quarters since after this match she's up against either Yulia Putintseva or Karin Knapp and in the quarters most likely Serena. Go Dominika! If it's anything to go by Dominika has made a little fewer unforced errors then Carla comparing them by their two matches played so far and the one who wins this is the player who manages two keep their unforced errors to a minimum.

Back Pablo Cuevas to beat Tomas Berdych for a 7/10 stake at 2.37 with BetVictor
Back Ernests Gulbis to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 7/10 stake at 2.80 with BetVictor
Fancy these two underdogs tomorrow, both Berdych and Tsonga look shaky at the moment, while Cuevas is always dedicated and Gulbis is a man on a mission at the moment by the looks of things. Not much interesting in the H2H records, Cuevas leads 1-0 over Berdych (although it was a questionable results), while Tsonga leads Gulbis 3-2, but the differences between the two pairs are just minimal imo, so the bigger odds are worth a shot.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/JmUsK5

Simona Halep (-7.0) to beat Zarina Diyas for a 8/10 stake at 2.02 with Pinnaclesports
Simona tought young Nao Hibino a lesson last time out and I think this one will be just as easy. Carina Witthoeft could have beaten Zarina by exploiting her weak serves but she did'nt serve well enough and that coupled with Zarina being rather persistent in rallies made her able to turn the match. I guarrantee Simona will serve well enough and in the rallies she will blow Zarina off the court. She's done it twice before on hard and grass and could easily do it again on this surface where Simona is at her best. On hard in Austalian open 6-1 6-4 to Simona and in Wimbledon 6-3 6-0 both in 2014 and like I've said this surface is Simonas favourite and not Zarinas favourite which is hard.

Simona Halep (-7.0) to beat Zarina Diyas for a 8/10 stake at 2.02 with Pinnaclesports
Simona tought young Nao Hibino a lesson last time out and I think this one will be just as easy. Carina Witthoeft could have beaten Zarina by exploiting her weak serves but she did'nt serve well enough and that coupled with Zarina being rather persistent in rallies made her able to turn the match. I guarrantee Simona will serve well enough and in the rallies she will blow Zarina off the court. She's done it twice before on hard and grass and could easily do it again on this surface where Simona is at her best. On hard in Austalian open 6-1 6-4 to Simona and in Wimbledon 6-3 6-0 both in 2014 and like I've said this surface is Simonas favourite and not Zarinas favourite which is hard.

Back T.Bellucci/R.Gasquet - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Back Jordi Samper-Montana to beat Mathias Bourgue for a 7/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power
These are my finds for Monday. Bellucci has more than enough quality to trouble Gasquet, while Samper-Montana is a better player in Bourgue in my book - and the home conditions alone shouldn't be enough to turn things around.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/cOtHBi

Bjorn Fratangelo to beat Sam Querrey @ 3.35 Unibet (1 pt)
As much as I'm happy enough to back Fratangelo as he beat some good clay courters in the Bordeaux Challenger recently and he won this tournament as a junior, this is more about going against Querrey and for three main reasons. Firstly, he's never been that comfortable on clay and he reminds me of Roddick in that respect. Secondly, he's lost his last three matches on the surface, albeit against players he was expected to lose to and finally because from memory his record at this tournament is pretty poor. Combining those three things makes me think Querrey wont be oozing confidence ahead of this one, and so it could pay to side with the younger American here.

Off-topic, but this is worth seeing: https://twitter.com/result_de_tenis/status/734115766455422977
Please note the score

Thanks guys for the input..... Time to place first RG bets.... Gud luck everyone.... May the betting gods favour us all.... 

I've taken Brown already so it's to late for me to change my mind. It will probably be a hard game for Brown but I think he'll take it in the end since he's warmed up and prepared for the surface more then Sela is. It's the surface that makes me pick Brown but I think you may have two good bets but I also hope you are wrong about Sela.